A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think that extending our own problems is the whole problem, I think its a part of the problem which is too much scared money.

But what if Bregman ages further? What if Casas comes back and there is nowhere to play him? What if Cedanne/KC become so good that we have a tough decision on our hands down the line?

Bloom was certainly shy and cautious.  Breslow seems to have more balls, and I tried to like him, but I just cant get over how bad of a communicator he is, and I really think its gotten pretty ugly.

Its like some of you (not you, MVP) need to listen to some like rage against the machine.  "FU I WONT DO WHAT YOU TELL ME"

that's the motto i live by.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

If Im going to extend, I want massive upside.

This seems to be a RS trend, but why does a player have to be great to get extended?  I would lock in anyone that has a good work ethic and is likely to stay healthy, assuming the $$$ numbers were good.  If Abreu has a love for Boston, and will give us two option years, in exchange for us guaranteeing his three arb years, I wouldn't think twice about doing it.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

His FA years aren't going to be that expensive.

Sure, but neither is his current salary.  Without the contract, we'd still be paying him.  We'd just be paying him more.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

The white hooded judges are back to dilute the voice of anyone who dares question the unalienable right of the rich and powerful to take more for themselves and leave less for us.  The bootlickers are back to explain to us why its better this way, even though they dont actually believe it, they just think if they quack like a pet, theyll get adopted.  

Does Talksox have a poitical thread that these rantings can be dumped into?

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's still important as not all pitches are sent to ABS. You still play a factor throughout the game with passed balls, controlling the running game, etc. Until Fangraphs revises their positional adjustments, CF/2B/3B are staying in third place. 

I agree 100%.  Good framing forces the players into making sub-optimal ABS challenges.  If a catcher cannot fool an umpire into making a bad call, then every challenge will be successful.  If a catcher can pull a ball 1/2 inch off the plate, into the strike zone, early in the game, the batter won't challenge it.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Kimmi said:

Although having a lot of LOBs is extremely frustrating, it's typically a sign of good offensive production.  Teams that score a lot of runs will typically also have a lot of LOBs.

That was the point I was trying back-hand to make.  Over the course of a full season, the highest scoring teams will always have an above-average number of LOBs.  You cannot have a lot of LOBs if you don't have a lot of hitting.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i still think it's stupid. only guy i can think in the last 10-15 years they should have "locked up" early is Mookie. 

In foresight & hindsight.

[UtahSox]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If it works out, it may still have been "needless" or help a little, but it's not bad, if it works.

All these deals are still TBD.

With what we know about JHY, any deal that "works" and saves something, is a good think- assuming the money saved goes to another addition and not JH's pocket.

This only matters if the guy sucks or does great, and the break even range is neutral.

 

I think extending pre arb contracts is a microcosm of everything with Red Sox since 2022. They are always seeking to win trades, and get + value vs compensation… Instead of just putting the best teams together.
scared of their own shadows of having a couple guys be negative value late in contracts. (mookie, Schwarber, Bregman) it’s trying to run the Red Sox like the freaking Brewers. It’s just ridiculous. I’m tired of this sh**. 

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

it’s trying to run the Red Sox like the freaking Brewers.

Not to detract from your point, but the Brewers have made the playoffs in 7 of the last 8 years, averaging about 92 wins.

[UtahSox]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Not to detract from your point, but the Brewers have made the playoffs in 7 of the last 8 years, averaging about 92 wins.

Trying is keyword

[moonslav59]

I think the players the Sox locked up were.are decent players, and the money given was not major. It was an attempt to keep some decent to good players beyond their control years with the chance that maybe one or two did real well, and we'd save some.

None of these deals have kept us from doing what we needed to do to get much better.

Although Bello has sucked, this year, and KC is back on the farm, these guys make peanuts and are not the reason we suck.

 

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

these guys make peanuts and are not the reason we suck.

The reason why we suck hasn't changed since I first started posting it-Story, Anthony, Duran, Crochet and Bello.  And even Bello has delivered two massive efforts B2B.

[Old Red]

17-24.

7-13 at Fenway.

27th in runs scored.

29th in HR.

29th in total bases per game.

🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮

[Hugh2]

Of all my years watching baseball, this might single handidly be the most depressing team I've ever watched.  

[Old Red]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Of all my years watching baseball, this might single handidly be the most depressing team I've ever watched.  

Agree on that. LLL. Lifeless, Listless, LOSERS with Slumber in the Lumber.

[notin]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't neutral. They are paid by the hype. They need the clicks. 

Huh?

So they give favor to the prospects of larger fanbases?  I guess it was obvious after ranking Konnor Griffin #1 this year, resulting in clicks from nearly 8 of the 11 known Pirates’ fans…

[notin]

19 hours ago, drewski6 said:

This is a good example of what I mean.  In hindsight/going forward Cedannes contract is probably "fine" but that doesnt mean it was a "fine" decision to extend him when we did.  

If Im going to extend, I want massive upside.  But if I take over as a GM , and a contract is par without a ton more upside, its not like that contract is killing me.  But I prob still try to move it lol.  I like churn.

I think Whats most want is the team to not be wrong.  Yes, some early extensions don’t work out.  Guess what?  So do a lot of free agent contracts.  What team is being killed by bad contracts given to pre-arb players?  What about free agents? Are we pretending those always work out?  Whose more tradable - Campbell or Story?

[notin]

9 hours ago, UtahSox said:

I think extending pre arb contracts is a microcosm of everything with Red Sox since 2022. They are always seeking to win trades, and get + value vs compensation… Instead of just putting the best teams together.
scared of their own shadows of having a couple guys be negative value late in contracts. (mookie, Schwarber, Bregman) it’s trying to run the Red Sox like the freaking Brewers. It’s just ridiculous. I’m tired of this sh**. 

You don’t think every team does that?  Even the Dodgers and Mets this past off-season gave out shorter, higher AAV deals to Tucker and Bichette than anyone expected, just like the Sox did with Bregman..

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Agree on that. LLL. Lifeless, Listless, LOSERS with Slumber in the Lumber.

The real tragedy is I still think guys like Mayer and Anthony have bright futures, but they're finishing their development at the MLB level surrounded by losing.  As Lou Merloni would say, you need some adults in the room.  

Sox did well to improve the pitching and defense, but they paid the price for it by completely neglecting half the roster and it shows. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

You don’t think every team does that?  Even the Dodgers and Mets this past off-season gave out shorter, higher AAV deals to Tucker and Bichette than anyone expected, just like the Sox did with Bregman..

It seems more and more that we are seeing extremes with contracts.  More guys are signing longer term deals at younger ages for lower AAV in later years while older vets are signing shorter term deals with much higher AAV. 

This is conjecture and perception, I don't have any stats right now to back this up. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The real tragedy is I still think guys like Mayer and Anthony have bright futures, but they're finishing their development at the MLB level surrounded by losing.  As Lou Merloni would say, you need some adults in the room.  

Sox did well to improve the pitching and defense, but they paid the price for it by completely neglecting half the roster and it shows. 

They ignored offense because they scored 4.85 runs per game last year.  And trading Devers had no impact; they scored 4.86 rpg with him and 4.84 rpg after trading him.  Contreras has done well replacing Bregman.  But a lot of players just are not performing, which several veterans having the worst season of their careers…

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

They ignored offense because they scored 4.85 runs per game last year.  And trading Devers had no impact; they scored 4.86 rpg with him and 4.84 rpg after trading him.  Contreras has done well replacing Bregman.  But a lot of players just are not performing, which several veterans having the worst season of their careers…

I don't disagree that to some extent this is fluky.  But besides the rooks who are they banking on? Story, Contreras? Where are the adult, all star, elite level proven leader veterans leading this team?  They don't exist and teams that win often have them.  

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Sure, but neither is his current salary.  Without the contract, we'd still be paying him.  We'd just be paying him more.

His current salary would be microscopic if they didn't extend it. Just throwing money down the drain. For PR? 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don't disagree that to some extent this is fluky.  But besides the rooks who are they banking on? Story, Contreras? Where are the adult, all star, elite level proven leader veterans leading this team?  They don't exist and teams that win often have them.  

They ignored the offense for the most part, because Alonso whom they offered a contract to first was to expensive whom was going to supplement Bregman who they wanted all along, but he was to expensive too. The storyline that the Red Sox didn’t drop off much last year after Raffy left is factually true, but most likely would have been better if he would have stayed, and especially was missed against the YANKEES In the postseason.

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

Huh?

So they give favor to the prospects of larger fanbases?  I guess it was obvious after ranking Konnor Griffin #1 this year, resulting in clicks from nearly 8 of the 11 known Pirates’ fans…

Are you saying that Yankees prospects don't have a history of being overhyped? 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Does Talksox have a poitical thread that these rantings can be dumped into?

He's trying to throw out RATM lyrics. 

Last time we tried a vaguely political thread was when we allowed a COVID topic thread and that was a mistake for sure. 

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

The reason why we suck hasn't changed since I first started posting it-Story, Anthony, Duran, Crochet and Bello.  And even Bello has delivered two massive efforts B2B.

That's the major piece.

When you see how close we are to the #5 team, one could also say, if Durbin & Mayer were hitting just .725, IKF at .625 and Chapman, Whitlock & Weissert were closer to their 2025 numbers, we could be tied for the last playoff slot (and still suck.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

In 4+ years, including post-seasons, since Kyle Schwarber left Beantown, he's blasted 228 home runs. 

In their Red Sox careers -- Boston's entire 2026 starting line-up has hit 224 homers.

But Schwarber just didn't fit in here. To use a notin simile: that's like looking at a three-car garage with a Pinto, a Gremlin, and a Pacer, and saying there's just no room for a mint 1977 Pontiac Firebird Trans Am.

[dannycater]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

In 4+ years, including post-seasons, since Kyle Schwarber left Beantown, he's blasted 228 home runs. 

In their Red Sox careers -- Boston's entire 2026 starting line-up has hit 224 homers.

But Schwarber just didn't fit in here. To use a notin simile: that's like looking at a three-car garage with a Pinto, a Gremlin, and a Pacer, and saying there's just no room for a mint 1977 Pontiac Firebird Trans Am.

I have been upset at 2 non-re signs in different eras...one was not re-upping Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre after he had a great year in the bridge season or whatever that was back then...the other Schwarber....I couldn't fathom how you see a guy who loves Fenway, bombs the ball in Fenway a la Ortiz or better to RF and then don't want him back....this is a pathetic franchise but that stat above is about all you need to know about Breslow and the staff...yeah fire Cora and 5 other coaches because that's the "problem"...try again, no offense. You can have all the defense and pitching and if you can't score runs, you're screwed

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Of all my years watching baseball, this might single handidly be the most depressing team I've ever watched.  

2001 Red Sox

Manny's first season. Nomar appears on the cover of SI. An old wrist injury is aggravated in ST and he appears in 20 G. Sox start off hot and are in first place in April and stay in the mix through late June. Pedro only throws 13 IP after July 1 and the wheels completely fall off without him. They were in 1st on July 2nd, but end the season 13 GB going 28-46 through Oct 2nd (ended the season on a meaningless 5 game win streak).