A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

I would not be trading Duran to upgrade the 2B position. I'd just stick to the in-house guys we currently have. Duran has too many good attributes and i have seen that he is projected by some to have a 30 SB-30 HR season this year. I keep him. Abreu goes before him IMO but I'm not sure I even deal him for a 2B not named Marte. We have a surplus of SP we could deal from but I do not put Bello in that group. You seem to be high on Sandavol and maybe the guy we got from the Pirates. No way in he$$ do any of Tolle, Early, or Witherspoon  for a 2B. Now if we were somehow able to pry Skubul out of Detroit....

It's a close call between Duran and Abreu, and I did not come to my opinion lightly.

I like the extra year Abreu has and his age (2 years younger.)

Abreu costs less.

Abreu is a GG RF'er- a very difficult position to play in Fenway and on the road.

Duran is okay in LF and CF but may play more DH in 2026 than many want to believe. To me his value as a DH (vs Masa/Romy/Casas/Campbell) is less than his value as an OF'er to us and every other MLB team.

Duran has been a better batter than Abreu, but Abreu passed him in OPS last year. You speak of 30 HRs, but the 2025 ISO numbers were Abreu .223 (best among returning Sox players) and .185 from Duran (barely ahead of Narvaez, Romy & others.)

Duran's speed is a game-changer and is hard to place a value on. He blows Abreu away on this.

OPS+

Duran:

69 at ages 24-25

121 at 26

132 at 27

114 at 28 (This does not suggest a decline is in place, but is concerning)

Abreu:

120 at ages 24-25

116 at age 26 (less than Duran at 26 but more than Duran at 28)

It's hard to project who will better, but Abreu has more power and plays better defense. That should continue.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

From what I know, if I had to assign blame on the Devers fiasco & departure, I'd probably put Brez first, but I also think Devers should have moved to 1B w/o public comments. If it's true that Cora refused to even ask Devers to move to 1B, when his boss wanted that to happen, I think that is unsettling, at best and worthy of some blame at worst.

99%, no. Maybe over 50%, yes.

I am a bit relieved to see we have spent more than the 2025 budget, but the power gap remains. That's on Brez, because we see he had the budget to spend more on batting than pitching and chose not to do that.

That being said, teams can win with different roster constructions, and maybe the pitching will carry us to glory, or the batting will do better than we expected.

The winter is not over, yet, either.

Cora said in an interview shown on NESN that he had not talked to Raffy about playing 1B, and said he wasn’t going to, so that’s not questionable at all, and if he didn’t do it, because he thought it was a bad idea, and wouldn’t help the team then I see nothing wrong with that at all despite what Brez said. Cora knew Raffy better than anyone, and it wouldn’t have surprised me at all that Cora wanted to tell Brez the same thing Raffy did to do his job, and find someone.

[FredLynn]

41 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

1. He's not done.

2, Tied for 7th on projected total fWAR is subjectively competitive or not. We are 1.1 away from 6th, 1.6 away from 5th and 1.8 from 4th. One could argue that's close enough to call competitive.

3. Adding a 2.4 Paredes or the like would move us to 4th or 5th, assuming the teams ahead of us don't make major additions, too.

While I do share your view that we should have improved by more, the winter is not over. If we stop now, or other teams just ahead of us add more than us, I will not be happy, but I won't say "everything" he has done is bad.

I understand that might have been hyperbole, since you have admitted some moves are good and have been good.

I wish we had gotten Alonso, Schwarber of KMarte, even if it meant one less pitcher or even no Gray & Contreras, maybe, as long as the leftover money was uses on a RP'er or two, or an upgrade somewhere else.

I didn’t say EVERYTHING he has done is bad. It’s not. But he isn’t good enough at his job, overall. I don’t think he’s done yet either. He’ll add someone else who is relatively insignificant in terms of making us a contender for a ring. Last year I was satisfied with the improvement-we made the playoffs. This year I want more than an early exit. fWAR is a guess for 2026. I want results judged by WINS, not calculations.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Cora said in an interview shown on NESN that he had not talked to Raffy about playing 1B, and said he wasn’t going to, so that’s not questionable at all, and if he didn’t do it, because he thought it was a bad idea, and wouldn’t help the team then I see nothing wrong with that at all despite what Brez said. Cora knew Raffy better than anyone, and it wouldn’t have surprised me at all that Cora wanted to tell Brez the same thing Raffy did to do his job, and find someone.

I'm not sure Brez ever asked Cora to talk to Devers, so I won't place any blame on Cora, unless and until that becomes known. I do think it's odd that if Cora knew his boss wanted Devers to play 1B and did not want to ask or see the need to ask, something is askew between their relationship. Who is to blame for that? It's hard to know.

It would not be the first time a manager disagreed with what the GM wanted him to do with the players given to him. I only said that if Brez asked Cora to talk to Devers and he would not, then maybe I'd put some blame on Cora, too. Maybe.

Maybe Devers says no to Cora, and nothing changes- he's still gone. Maybe Devers respects Cora enough that he agrees to do what seems to me to be what's best for the team, and he's still here. Maybe.

I'm not sure who is most to blame, but it does appear to be mostly on Brez, from what I know and opine.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I didn’t say EVERYTHING he has done is bad. 

Okay, my bad: you said "just about everything," except making excuses, and that sounds like everything done on paper, to me.

 Breslow is incompetent at just about everything besides making excuses. He’s a master at that.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

. Last year I was satisfied with the improvement-we made the playoffs. This year I want more than an early exit. fWAR is a guess for 2026. I want results judged by WINS, not calculations.

Well, it sounds like you are predicting coming up short and have already decided we will fail.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Cora said in an interview shown on NESN that he had not talked to Raffy about playing 1B, and said he wasn’t going to, so that’s not questionable at all, and if he didn’t do it, because he thought it was a bad idea, and wouldn’t help the team then I see nothing wrong with that at all despite what Brez said. Cora knew Raffy better than anyone, and it wouldn’t have surprised me at all that Cora wanted to tell Brez the same thing Raffy did to do his job, and find someone.

Cora didn’t talk to Raffy about 1b for the same reason Cora didn’t want Bregman at 3b - he knew Devers was a difficult person not going to move willlingly.  It has nothing to whether or not he thought Devers could field 1b.  Was Cora reluctant to move Devers to DH because he didn’t think Devers could field there either?

Devers wasn’t a team player.  It’s a shame because he was an elite hitter, but it’s reality…

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Cora didn’t talk to Raffy about 1b for the same reason Cora didn’t want Bregman at 3b - he knew Devers was a difficult person not going to move willlingly.  It has nothing to whether or not he thought Devers could field 1b.  Was Cora reluctant to move Devers to DH because he didn’t think Devers could field there either?

Devers wasn’t a team player.  It’s a shame because he was an elite hitter, but it’s reality…

Nope. 99% Brez. Back to disagreeing with Ole Red.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure Brez ever asked Cora to talk to Devers, so I won't place any blame on Cora, unless and until that becomes known. I do think it's odd that if Cora knew his boss wanted Devers to play 1B and did not want to ask or see the need to ask, something is askew between their relationship. Who is to blame for that? It's hard to know.

It would not be the first time a manager disagreed with what the GM wanted him to do with the players given to him. I only said that if Brez asked Cora to talk to Devers and he would not, then maybe I'd put some blame on Cora, too. Maybe.

Maybe Devers says no to Cora, and nothing changes- he's still gone. Maybe Devers respects Cora enough that he agrees to do what seems to me to be what's best for the team, and he's still here. Maybe.

I'm not sure who is most to blame, but it does appear to be mostly on Brez, from what I know and opine.

To this day I still don’t see how moving Devers to 1B would have benefited the Red Sox, and especially under the circumstances that Devers  hadn’t even played in the field, which made it even less sensible to try it at that time during the season. Raffy most likely wouldn’t have been as good as Romy at 1B, and then whomever got put at DH WOULDN’T have been as good as Raffy, so I don’t see it at all, and I don’t think Cora did either, so not only 99% on Brez, but a bad idea all the way around, and some call Raffy a bad teammate for that.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

To this day I still don’t see how moving Devers to 1B would have benefited the Red Sox, and especially under the circumstances that Devers  hadn’t even played in the field, which made it even less sensible to try it at that time during the season. Raffy most likely wouldn’t have been as good as Romy at 1B, and then whomever got put at DH WOULDN’T have been as good as Raffy, so I don’t see it at all, and I don’t think Cora did either, so not only 99% on Brez, but a bad idea all the way around, and some call Raffy a bad teammate for that.

You can't even fathom one benefit from Devers playing 1B after Casas got hurt?

That's bizarre.

SFG played him at 1B because he fit there better than 3B, since they had a 3Bman and a DH.

For us, Mayer at 3B and Devers at 1B made some sense. It made sense to Brez, but he knows way less than you, I guess.

A player undermines his boss in public, but you see less than 1% blame for that. Again, bizarre.

[Old Red]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You can't even fathom one benefit from Devers playing 1B after Casas got hurt?

That's bizarre.

SFG played him at 1B because he fit there better than 3B, since they had a 3Bman and a DH.

For us, Mayer at 3B and Devers at 1B made some sense. It made sense to Brez, but he knows way less than you, I guess.

A player undermines his boss in public, but you see less than 1% blame for that. Again, bizarre.

We’ve already gone over this 100’s of times already. If Romy is a better fielder at 1B than Raffy, and a lesser hitter would be at DH then NO I don’t even fathom, or see the benefit of Raffy playing 1B, and most importantly I don’t think Cora did either. We’ve also already gone over that SF already have a good 3B, so Raffy would not play there anyway, so it doesn’t mean much, or NOTHING at all. I definitely do not see that Raffy did anything wrong at all in telling Brez to do his job under these circumstances. He saw 11 different 2B parade through there in 2024, and all the tryouts they had gone through at 1B, so to me Raffy was more than justified in telling Brez to do his job, and Cora most likely wanted to do the same thing.

 

 

 

[FredLynn]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, it sounds like you are predicting coming up short and have already decided we will fail.

That’s what it looks like to me based on the current lineup or by adding another irrelevant player.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

To this day I still don’t see how moving Devers to 1B would have benefited the Red Sox, and especially under the circumstances that Devers  hadn’t even played in the field, which made it even less sensible to try it at that time during the season. Raffy most likely wouldn’t have been as good as Romy at 1B, and then whomever got put at DH WOULDN’T have been as good as Raffy, so I don’t see it at all, and I don’t think Cora did either, so not only 99% on Brez, but a bad idea all the way around, and some call Raffy a bad teammate for that.

Casas was out. 
 

The only sensible replacement for his bat was Yoshida.  Putting Yoshida to DH and Devers to first did actually make the most sense.  It’s very unlikely Devers forgot how to field in 37 games.  
 

Devers wasn’t a team absolutely a bad teammate.  He watched a player get hurt and his reaction was “I’m not helping out.  Breslow should go get someone else.”   And I’m barely changing words there.  His exact words were along the lines of “it’s Breslow’s job to go get someone else” snd “do they expect me to play everywhere?”  And that sounds like a team first guy to you?

Mookie was an elite RF who constantly practiced other positions for years “in case they need [him] to move.”  Devers was a poor defensive 3b who threw a tantrum because someone FINALLY got sick of his butchery at that position.  And you think DEVERS is the team player?

[notin]

I hope so because I eould be more on board with this than I should be.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/luis-arraez-weighing-multiple-offers-wants-to-play-second-base.html

[moonslav59]

Just say no to Arraez,

Even if he agrees to play anywhere.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I hope so because I eould be more on board with this than I should be.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/luis-arraez-weighing-multiple-offers-wants-to-play-second-base.html

Not a fan of Arraez, but had he been a righty, he'd have been worth considering.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Not a fan of Arraez, but had he been a righty, he'd have been worth considering.

The one guy in MLB with less power than Masa.

[moonslav59]

Sox sign Matt Thaiss to a minor league deal,

Catcher depth signing with MLB experience.

He's "out of options," but signing a minor league deal makes that a bit interesting. If he makes the MLB team, at anytime, does that mean they can't send him down?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thaisma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2026-01-31_br

[notin]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox sign Matt Thaiss to a minor league deal,

Catcher depth signing with MLB experience.

He's "out of options," but signing a minor league deal makes that a bit interesting. If he makes the MLB team, at anytime, does that mean they can't send him down?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thaisma01.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2026-01-31_br

Yes.  If he is activated on to the 40 man roster, he cannot be demoted.  Only DFAd…

[jad]

Ah yes, the ole 'bad team-mate' ploy.  The only people who would know are other players, and I'm still waiting to hear a statement from any of them supporting this theory, as there were some (including Bregman) who flat out denied it.   

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, jad said:

Ah yes, the ole 'bad team-mate' ploy.  The only people who would know are other players, and I'm still waiting to hear a statement from any of them supporting this theory, as there were some (including Bregman) who flat out denied it.   

Yes it’s the ole bad team-mate theory, and one even brought up Mookie as some kind of comp, because he can, and is willing to play other positions. A pretty BAD comp it is seeing as Mookie is a far superior athlete than Raffy is, and could play just about anywhere, and may be a better bowler than baseball player.🤭

[notin]

41 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes it’s the ole bad team-mate theory, and one even brought up Mookie as some kind of comp, because he can, and is willing to play other positions. A pretty BAD comp it is seeing as Mookie is a far superior athlete than Raffy is, and could play just about anywhere, and may be a better bowler than baseball player.🤭

Right.  Hey why don’t you show support for your theory?  Not sure what Cora saying he never asked him proves. (Actually sure exactly what it proves - absolutely nothing.)

But I actually saw through an interpreter Devers say he was not going to move, Breslow should do his job and get another first baseman (this was May 3rd!), and the classic line about “do they expect me to play every position?”

Yeah, he sounds like he was all about being a good teammate…

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, notin said:

Yes.  If he is activated on to the 40 man roster, he cannot be demoted.  Only DFAd…

So, he's basically depth that can only be used once.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, he's basically depth that can only be used once.

He can be used multiple times; he just has to clear waivers in between…

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Right.  Hey why don’t you show support for your theory?  Not sure what Cora saying he never asked him proves. (Actually sure exactly what it proves - absolutely nothing.)

But I actually saw through an interpreter Devers say he was not going to move, Breslow should do his job and get another first baseman (this was May 3rd!), and the classic line about “do they expect me to play every position?”

Yeah, he sounds like he was all about being a good teammate…

He was living under the delusion that he was a good defensive 3Bman. Maybe that explain something- maybe not.

I totally understand blaming Brez for some or most of  what happened, but to be fine with a player being blatantly selfish and calling out his boss for wanting him to help the team, whether you agree it was going to help or not, is just plain weird to me.

Hell, some even blame Brez for signing Bregman as the move that ignited this whole thing, and some are the same guys who blame Brez for not signing top talent.

It was mishandled, so everything Devers said and did was excusable. Less than 1% of all the blame goes to Dvers + Cora- not even a comment, like "sure he should have done what was asked of him, but..."

[UtahSox]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Right.  Hey why don’t you show support for your theory?  Not sure what Cora saying he never asked him proves. (Actually sure exactly what it proves - absolutely nothing.)

But I actually saw through an interpreter Devers say he was not going to move, Breslow should do his job and get another first baseman (this was May 3rd!), and the classic line about “do they expect me to play every position?”

Yeah, he sounds like he was all about being a good teammate…

Wanted him to learn English, he wouldn’t. They wanted him to be face of RS, which means he needed to speak English. Wanted him to get in shape in offseason he wouldn’t. Boston actually sent tutors and trainers to DR in 2024-25 offseason and he avoided them until they gave up. Then had a temper tantrum about making the team better. Because it dislodged him at 3b. He was a poor teammate. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Wanted him to learn English, he wouldn’t. They wanted him to be face of RS, which means he needed to speak English. Wanted him to get in shape in offseason he wouldn’t. Boston actually sent tutors and trainers to DR in 2024-25 offseason and he avoided them until they gave up. Then had a temper tantrum about making the team better. Because it dislodged him at 3b. He was a poor teammate. 

I can’t tell if this is facetious or not.

Wanting him to learn English is actually bad requirement.  Not every human is capable of learning multiple languages, and not every franchise face speaks English.  Most notably Ohtani, who would have avoided lots of gambling conspiracy theories if he did…

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Wanted him to learn English, he wouldn’t. They wanted him to be face of RS, which means he needed to speak English. Wanted him to get in shape in offseason he wouldn’t. Boston actually sent tutors and trainers to DR in 2024-25 offseason and he avoided them until they gave up. Then had a temper tantrum about making the team better. Because it dislodged him at 3b. He was a poor teammate. 

Who wanted him to speak English or even asked him to? Who insisted on that?

While I do feel like some of the translated statements he made might have missed some nuance and cultural aspects of what he said, he clearly was upset that the team asked him to do something they felt would help the team, and he wanted to call the shots. He thought he was a good defensive 3Bman, which alone disproves his skill at evaluating what is good or bad for the team. Yes, he was a bad teammate.

This isn't the first time a star on a team tried to make GM or manager decisions. Many of these incidents where the team followed what the player asked or wanted done, that I recall, rarely worked out well. Some even were fully involved in roster construction choices (see James Harden w the Rockets.)

We got a guy who was clearly the better defender at 3B and told Devers he'd be the DH. He hated that. That is understandable, but he reluctantly made the move- crying the whole way. Then, our 1Bman gets hurt. You can agree or disagree that Devers was the best option at 1B all you want, but if the team thinks you are, and you say no, how is that not an issue to some? All because you don't agree Devers was the better choice at 1B, you're okay with a player being insubordinate and then calling out the GM to "make a move?"

[notin]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Not a fan of Arraez, but had he been a righty, he'd have been worth considering.

Arraez is now a Giant.

If Brendan Donovan is really a target, being a right-handed hitter might not be a priority…

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He was living under the delusion that he was a good defensive 3Bman. Maybe that explain something- maybe not.

I totally understand blaming Brez for some or most of  what happened, but to be fine with a player being blatantly selfish and calling out his boss for wanting him to help the team, whether you agree it was going to help or not, is just plain weird to me.

Hell, some even blame Brez for signing Bregman as the move that ignited this whole thing, and some are the same guys who blame Brez for not signing top talent.

It was mishandled, so everything Devers said and did was excusable. Less than 1% of all the blame goes to Dvers + Cora- not even a comment, like "sure he should have done what was asked of him, but..."

Yes Raffy thought of himself as a good 3B, which he was not, so disagreement there. The fact that Cora did not speak to Raffy about playing 1B speaks volumes to me, as as I’ve said before if he did I’d have a different opinion on this, but he didn’t, and I don’t. Once again Raffy had every right telling Brez to do his job. Didn’t you like everyone else see 11 different players have a tryout at 2B two years ago, and didn’t you like everyone else see the constant parade through 1B, and through SS until last year? Raffy saw it too. Didn’t Raffy also speak up at the trade deadline a few years ago saying that they knew what the team needed to get better? All this has been hashed over, and over, and over again. No one’s opinion is going to change, so yes to me 99.5% is on #12.