A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Who is the majority owner of FSG?

John Henry.  Still not sure what the point of asking who owns the Red Sox.

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ill just go for OPS since 2021 (last 5 years)

2B:

.857 KMarte (not available)

.839 Altuve (Don't want him)

.792 B Lowe (not .800) .775 Chisholm & Polanco, .772 Donovan

3B

.868 Devers

.865 Ramirez (not available)

.842 Riley (owed a fortune and been declining)

.822 Machado (see Riley)

.819 Muncy (doubt he'll hit .800)

.812 Caminero (not available)

.799 Bregman (would not have met your criteria)

.778 Arenado (LOL)

.777 Paredes (My choice)

Who would satisfy you?

 

I’d settle for.780 IF too. Brady won’t take that bet either, preferring to complain about me not taking a sucker bet he proposed.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Over than past three years, at a minimum of 1500 PAs, that means we can only obtain Marte, Ramirez or Riley.  Come up with a serious wager or stop wasting your time.

Hilarious. And your offer was serious? You wanted me to bet that we wouldn’t sign anyone at all?

 

[JoeBrady]

Just now, FredLynn said:

I’d settle for.780 IF too. Brady won’t take that bet either, preferring to complain about me not taking a sucker bet he proposed.

You said we wouldn't add anyone.  I challenged and you folded.

Then you added a laughable .820.

Make it nice and simple.  I'm betting we acquire someone that either had a 2+ WAR last year, or projects to have a 2+ WAR this year.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Over than past three years, at a minimum of 1500 PAs, that means we can only obtain Marte, Ramirez or Riley.  Come up with a serious wager or stop wasting your time.

As much as I mistrust projected numbers, I'd trust that over "Career OPS" and maybe even last 2, 3 or 5 year OPS numbers,

STEAMER 2026

.869 Caminero

.858 KMarte

.857 Seager

.840 Ramirez

.810 Devers

.806 de la Cruz

.800 Paredes

notables:

.783 Bregman, .781 Muncy, .764 Donovan

[FredLynn]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You said we wouldn't add anyone.  I challenged and you folded.

Then you added a laughable .820.

Make it nice and simple.  I'm betting we acquire someone that either had a 2+ WAR last year, or projects to have a 2+ WAR this year.

I’ll counter with I bet we don’t sign an IF with a career OPS at .780 or better. Thats more than generous. Interested?

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As much as I mistrust projected numbers, I'd trust that over "Career OPS" and maybe even last 2, 3 or 5 year OPS numbers,

STEAMER 2026

.869 Caminero

.858 KMarte

.857 Seager

.840 Ramirez

.810 Devers

.806 de la Cruz

.800 Paredes

notables:

.783 Bregman, .781 Muncy, .764 Donovan

I’d accept a wager restricted to OPS>.780 over the past three years. 
The point is that we aren’t getting anyone like that at all. We will sign SOMEONE, followed by the usual excuses as to why we didn’t get someone better.

[notin]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Wait, I posted the same thing, and Polishuk gets credit and I don't?  What a rip-off.

How do I know you’re not Mark Polishuk?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I’d accept a wager restricted to OPS>.780 over the past three years. 
The point is that we aren’t getting anyone like that at all. We will sign SOMEONE, followed by the usual excuses as to why we didn’t get someone better.

Eugenio Suarez just signed with the Reds.

But you’re in luck, Fred.  His OPS over the last 3 years was only .775…

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

So, you wanna believe that Brez placed the NTC limit on himself. You wanna believe he chose to put massive deferments on the contract, by himself. Fine, but that is you speculating, not me. Talk a out "missing the point" and see the "exact opposite."

I'm not saying I know. I'm not speculating. I came right out and said "We don't know the orders given to him," so how is that speculating he was known to have orders?

It's you speculating and blaming based on speculations.

Bregman is getting $105M out of his $175M the first 5 years with the rest being deferred with the Cubs. The Red Sox wanted to give Bregman less money than that over the five years, which was reported although no figures were given. Ranger on the other hand is getting all $130M over the 5 years so if Brez was under such money constraints on Bregman how could he pay Ranger at the very least $25M more, and that figure was undoubtedly higher? 

[Old Red]

$15M/1 for Eugenio Suarez. Good deal for Cincinnati.

[FredLynn]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

Eugenio Suarez just signed with the Reds.

But you’re in luck, Fred.  His OPS over the last 3 years was only .775…

What a surprise! We missed out on him too. Good thing we were “interested”. 
One stated priority was to improve our offense. The other was to get a good SP, which we did. Breslow again did a half ass job. He really needs to be fired.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Bregman is getting $105M out of his $175M the first 5 years with the rest being deferred with the Cubs. The Red Sox wanted to give Bregman less money than that over the five years, which was reported although no figures were given. Ranger on the other hand is getting all $130M over the 5 years so if Brez was under such money constraints on Bregman how could he pay Ranger at the very least $25M more, and that figure was undoubtedly higher? 

Not sure how this matters.

It could be (I'm not going to speculate) that the AAV and tax line was what mattered most. I think the AAV for Range came out about teh same as the Bregman offer with deferments. I'm not sure about that, but if true, it kinda supports the theory that the tax line mattered.

Again, I'm not sure, so I'm holding off signing blame until we know, and even if we find out Brez could have given the NTC and or offered a higher AAV or total amount and he refused to, then blame away. I'm still thinking that this is all part of the cat & mouse game of negotiations, where bluffing or not bluffing happens a lot. If you want to blame someone for misjudging a bluff, that's another debate, too.

If Brez bungled it, of course it is concerning, It should be. I've never said otherwise. IMO, if was ever going to bungle a negotiation, I'm glad it was this one, since I'd rather have Suarez.

The Alonso offer was not even close, and I wanted him. I'd be thinking a little differently if this was all about losing out on my plan A. Yes, I still wonder and worry about Brez'z ability to land the guys we want. I'm just not blaming him for this one without those key facts about the NTC, deferments and top dollar limits (or no limits.) You can't or won't even acknowledge that position has merit. Instead you claim my position is based on speculation, when my whole point is I'm not going to blame anyone yet, based on speculation and unknow facts.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

What a surprise! We missed out on him too. Good thing we were “interested”. 
One stated priority was to improve our offense. The other was to get a good SP, which we did. Breslow again did a half ass job. He really needs to be fired.

So, you'd have won the best, since he's at .775, and yet Brez still failed.

[notin]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

I’ll help. It’s John Henry and yes, he is lining his personal pockets with the money he saved not only on Devers but the money he could have reinvested in player salaries to make the team more competitive.

That sounds like embezzlement.  I don’t think it’s legal…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

What a surprise! We missed out on him too. Good thing we were “interested”. 
One stated priority was to improve our offense. The other was to get a good SP, which we did. Breslow again did a half ass job. He really needs to be fired.

Why did we want him?  He’s barely a step up over Yoshida, if even that…

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not sure how this matters.

It could be (I'm not going to speculate) that the AAV and tax line was what mattered most. I think the AAV for Range came out about teh same as the Bregman offer with deferments. I'm not sure about that, but if true, it kinda supports the theory that the tax line mattered.

Again, I'm not sure, so I'm holding off signing blame until we know, and even if we find out Brez could have given the NTC and or offered a higher AAV or total amount and he refused to, then blame away. I'm still thinking that this is all part of the cat & mouse game of negotiations, where bluffing or not bluffing happens a lot. If you want to blame someone for misjudging a bluff, that's another debate, too.

If Brez bungled it, of course it is concerning, It should be. I've never said otherwise. IMO, if was ever going to bungle a negotiation, I'm glad it was this one, since I'd rather have Suarez.

The Alonso offer was not even close, and I wanted him. I'd be thinking a little differently if this was all about losing out on my plan A. Yes, I still wonder and worry about Brez'z ability to land the guys we want. I'm just not blaming him for this one without those key facts about the NTC, deferments and top dollar limits (or no limits.) You can't or won't even acknowledge that position has merit. Instead you claim my position is based on speculation, when my whole point is I'm not going to blame anyone yet, based on speculation and unknow facts.

I said before the offseason began that I would have signed Alonso, and Schwaber.  I believe the Red Sox was more than interested in Alonso, but only offered the three years, because they were saving other money for Bregman, and were not going to sign 2 contracts of 5 years. As for what the Ranger contract matters it all depends on why he got more PDV than what they offered Bregman. Maybe it was because they failed on Bregman, and didn’t want to fail again.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Old Red said:

$15M/1 for Eugenio Suarez. Good deal for Cincinnati.

If we end up with someone uninspiring, this should and will come back on Brez, unless Suarez sucks. I also look back at the Polanco signing- another affordable gamble.

One will wonder if he'd take $17M/1 of $16N x 2 from BOS. Maybe $17M with deferments.

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

I said before the offseason began that I would have signed Alonso, and Schwaber.  I believe the Red Sox was more than interested in Alonso, but only offered the three years, because they were saving other money for Bregman, and were not going to sign 2 contracts of 5 years. As for what the Ranger contract matters it all depends on why he got more PDV than what they offered Bregman. Maybe it was because they failed on Bregman, and didn’t want to fail again.

Maybe we don't get Gray and/or Contreras if that happens, but isn't this speculation?

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Why did we want him?  He’s barely a step up over Yoshida, if even that…

He had more power, but yes, their projected OPS would probably be pretty even.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, you'd have won the best, since he's at .775, and yet Brez still failed.

Sounds like Suarez is going to mainly be the DH.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Sounds like Suarez is going to mainly be the DH.

As he should.

It kinda made more sense to get ES, if Masa was dumped, somehow.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe we don't get Gray and/or Contreras if that happens, but isn't this speculation?

If Alonso came first then no Con Man, but Ranger came much later on so probably Gray happens.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As he should.

It kinda made more sense to get ES, if Masa was dumped, somehow.

He was available for quite a while. I think as it stands right now Mayer is at 3B, and anyones guess at 2B.

[Larry Cook]

As of today: 

2026 starters - 1.) crochet. 2.) Suárez. 3.) gray. 4.) bello. 5.) Oviedo 

2026 bullpen - 1.) LHP Chapman. 2.) RHP Whitlock. 3.) RHP slaten, 4.) RHP wiessert. 5.) RHP Watson. 6.) LHP Harrison 7.) RHP Crawford. 8.) LHP Sandoval 

if Sandoval and Crawford start the year on the DL.  
then 7.) LHP Moran  7.) RHP Kelly 

DL - houck 

Worcester - Tolle, early, uberstine, drohan, Bennett, samaniengo 

 

[moonslav59]

To me, our best and most possible options might be (in my order)

1. Paredes RHB 2 yrs (12.9 BTV)

2. Matt Shaw RHB 5 yrs (40.9)

3. Brendon Donovan 2 yrs (30.7) or  Brett Baty LHB 4 yrs (21.9)

Others: Nico Hoerner 1 yr (18.1) or Mark Vientos 4 yrs (15.5)

I feel like I'm missing someone.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

He was available for quite a while. I think as it stands right now Mayer is at 3B, and anyones guess at 2B.

Romy should have the inside edge, especially since he hit RHPs about as well as DHam does.

Maybe Romy-DHam.

Maybe K Campbell.

Maybe Rafaela to clear the OF logjam.

I still think Brez is working the phone and has some deals that just need him to say yes to, and he's either trying to improve the trade or decide on which one is best. Yes, speculation, but we now have two open roster slots and no AAA guys looking to deserve a promotion before we need to.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, our best and most possible options might be (in my order)

1. Paredes RHB 2 yrs (12.9 BTV)

2. Matt Shaw RHB 5 yrs (40.9)

3. Brendon Donovan 2 yrs (30.7) or  Brett Baty LHB 4 yrs (21.9)

Others: Nico Hoerner 1 yr (18.1) or Mark Vientos 4 yrs (15.5)

I feel like I'm missing someone.

I think a RHB would be preferable, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it ends up being someone who hasn’t been mentioned.

[FredLynn]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Why did we want him?  He’s barely a step up over Yoshida, if even that…

Is Yoshida an infielder?

[JoeBrady]

53 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

What a surprise! We missed out on him too.

You didn't want him anyway.  Remember the .780?