A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[FredLynn]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Hicks (-$18M) , Sandlin ($6M) and only $8M to CWS for Gage Ziehl (worth $1M)

-$4M for +$1M

And Henry pockets the difference?

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

They signed Contreras, Suarez, and Gray (as a lower tier SP, not a #2). I am fine with those moves. If they are done signing talent then I am not happy either. I doubt very much we will get Paredes or anyone like him. I suspect that we will get someone worse followed by another litany of excuses.

I'm not optimistic we add a really good player, but we just opened two 40 man slots, so something is in the works. Maybe two somethings.

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

And Henry pockets the difference?

Maybe the goal is to get under line 2 not stay below line 3. That is certainly a possibility.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe the goal is to get under line 2 not stay below line 3. That is certainly a possibility.

I would call it a PROBABILITY, not a possibility. Unfortunately that leaves us with a flaccid offense. But maybe you are right-maybe the two roster spots will be filled with players of significance. I have not given up on the ability of Casas to contribute this year either. Its something that isn't talked about here much but I think his career OPS is around .800. If he can get and stay healthy......

[Larry Cook]

On 1/30/2026 at 7:27 AM, mvp 78 said:

I'm fine if he's platooning at 2b with Romy and they've added another bat to the roster. If they're just putting Mayer at 3b and Hamilton at 2b, it'll be rough. 

I know I am the minority here, but I have watched Mayer for parts of 3 seasons in the minors and this kid has future superstar written all over him, when he figures out the hitting! Add yo that, his defense is above average. 
if he can hit decently in the first part of the season while he learns major league pitching, his second half could show hints of how elite he can be. 
I am betting he puts it almost together by the end of the year 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If that makes you feel better, good for you. You have a lot of faith in majority opinions or the perception of it.

It does make me feel better, and why wouldn’t it? It’s not just the majority, but the inside, and more knowledge of those opinions that you, or I don’t have. It’s not a perception at all as I go to many different venues. I hate to think the majority opinion out in the Nation is the majority opinion of just what’s on here, because it is not.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

I know I am the minority here, but I have watched Mayer for parts of 3 seasons in the minors and this kid has future superstar written all over him, when he figures out the hitting! Add yo that, his defense is above average. 
if he can hit decently in the first part of the season while he learns major league pitching, his second half could show hints of how elite he can be. 
I am betting he puts it almost together by the end of the year 

You are leaving out one key element, which is staying healthy, and staying on the field.

[Larry Cook]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You are leaving out one key element, which is staying healthy, and staying on the field.

Injuries are always a wild card for every player. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I would call it a PROBABILITY, not a possibility. Unfortunately that leaves us with a flaccid offense. But maybe you are right-maybe the two roster spots will be filled with players of significance. I have not given up on the ability of Casas to contribute this year either. Its something that isn't talked about here much but I think his career OPS is around .800. If he can get and stay healthy......

Maybe one slot will be left open for a ST'ing invitee, but I have to think one will be a MLB 3B/2Bman of unknown value.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It does make me feel better, and why wouldn’t it? It’s not just the majority, but the inside, and more knowledge of those opinions that you, or I don’t have. It’s not a perception at all as I go to many different venues. I hate to think the majority opinion out in the Nation is the majority opinion of just what’s on here, because it is not.

It does seem like outside opinions do matter to you, although you deny that.

It doesn't comfort or bother me if talking heads on ESPN, podcasts or the street corners in RS Nation agree with me or not. To each his own. I'm glad you feel better.

It seems like the majority wanted Breggie at a cost equal to or higher than the Cubs offer. You and I did not, yet you revel in the comfort that they share your belief that Brez bungled it, even though you didn't want Breggie at that cost.

It seems to me the comfort is more important than the end result you wanted and got.

[Old Red]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It does seem like outside opinions do matter to you, although you deny that.

It doesn't comfort or bother me if talking heads on ESPN, podcasts or the street corners in RS Nation agree with me or not. To each his own. I'm glad you feel better.

It seems like the majority wanted Breggie at a cost equal to or higher than the Cubs offer. You and I did not, yet you revel in the comfort that they share your belief that Brez bungled it, even though you didn't want Breggie at that cost.

It seems to me the comfort is more important than the end result you wanted and got.

I agreed with you that I did not want Bregman back for those years, and for that price, but that does not take away from the fact good, or bad that Brez could not land the player they wanted most, and who was their PLAN A. Once again in glad the Red SOX did not get him, but I don’t think Cora, and the Red Sox feel the same way, and feel just the opposite.

[notin]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

We aren't even getting Donovan. Too much for Henry to pay for. Think someone of the caliber of David Hamilton.

Donovan is too expensive?  He made $2.8 mill last year…

[Hitch]

38 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Injuries are always a wild card for every player. 

And even more so with a poor health record. 

HIs defence is definitely up to muster. Hopefully he can hit and stay healthy. I have worries over both, but I do like the kid and his attitude. 

[moonslav59]

The trade of two pitchers from the 40 changes the dynamic of the MLB & AAA pitching staffs.

We know Crawford and Sandoval might start the year on the IL, but assuming 100% health, maybe this is how it is shaping up:

MLB:

SP: Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello & Oviedo/Sandoval

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Crawford, Sandoval/Oviedo, Watson & Moran  (Harrison on the bubble AAA/MLB)

AAA

SP: Harrison, Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Drohan

RP: Kelly, Samaniego, Harris, Berrios, Gamboa, Song, Sweet/SMartinez/TGuerrero/Olds

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I agreed with you that I did not want Bregman back for those years, and for that price, but that does not take away from the fact good, or bad that Brez could not land the player they wanted most, and who was their PLAN A. Once again in glad the Red SOX did not get him, but I don’t think Cora, and the Red Sox feel the same way, and feel just the opposite.

"The Red Sox feel the same way?"

What does that even mean? JH, Kennedy & others are upset Brez didn't go beyond the parameters they limited him with?

They wish he offered him a NTC prohibited by the "Red Sox?"

They wish he put us over the tax line by lessening the deferrals?

[moonslav59]

I do not want to trade Tolle or Early for 2 years of Donovan, and I'd seriously resist trading Witherspoon or Valera, but I'm not sure how else we get STL to a yes.

BTV would approve Arias & Phillips as the next highest two valued prospects.

Soto, Phillips & Azocar equal Donovan's BTV value, too. That deal leaves us the TOP 4 pitchING PROSPECTS I mentioned and Arias, Gonzales, Romero and Godbout- the closest to MLB level top 4 everyday players in the system.

Not sure STL says yes.

[moonslav59]

Houston probably wants MLB player(s) for Paredes- like W Abreu, so I'm not sure that fits with adding to the 40 without subtracting anyone, unless it's like Abreu for Paredes and B King.

[FredLynn]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Donovan is too expensive?  He made $2.8 mill last year…

Yup. Too much for Henry in terms of $$$$ and prospects. We aren’t getting Donovan. I’d put money on it.

[FredLynn]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe one slot will be left open for a ST'ing invitee, but I have to think one will be a MLB 3B/2Bman of unknown value.

I think we both know the value.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

"The Red Sox feel the same way?"

What does that even mean? JH, Kennedy & others are upset Brez didn't go beyond the parameters they limited him with?

They wish he offered him a NTC prohibited by the "Red Sox?"

They wish he put us over the tax line by lessening the deferrals?

Why do you still miss the point. All it comes down to is the Red Sox didn’t get the player they wanted the most. The main point is not how much money they offered ,but that they didn’t get him. You think Cora didn’t want him back? Why they didn’t get him is a different discussion altogether, but that the fact they didn’t get him isn’t.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I think we both know the value.

No. I disagree on knowing what the budget line is. The tax years will likely reset after 2026.

I could see line 2 or line 3 being the limit, and that's a $20M difference, which is about what Suarez gets. All the trade guys mentioned are under or near the cap space we are at now on line 3. Paredes makes $12M, and I think he's the most costly. Donovan is $5.8M, which is what we just saved on the Hicks deal.

Sandlin, Hicks and $8M for Donovan is pretty nice at even cost.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Why do you still miss the point. All it comes down to is the Red Sox didn’t get the player they wanted the most. The main point is not how much money they offered ,but that they didn’t get him. You think Cora didn’t want him back? Why they didn’t get him is a different discussion altogether, but that the fact they didn’t get him isn’t.

I totally get that point. What makes you think I don't?

The Sox have missed out on "the player they wanted" countless times. They may have come closest on Breggie, but so what, They set a price and got beat, once again, The limits are set by the team so I can't see why they'd blame Brez for sticking to the limits they place on him.

It seems to me that is the point one of us is missing.

Of course they wanted Breggie and are upset we didn't get him. It's the assigning blame part i am odds with you over and NOT the fact that we missed out on our Plan A. (I'm pretty sure he was plan A.)

Why ask if I think Cora wanted him back? You think I feel he didn't? What did I ever say to make you even thing to ask such an absurd, yes absurd, question?

You often think the problem with someone who disagrees with you is because the simply don't understand or are "missing the point." Of course, everyone sees the point that is front and center: once again, the Sox missed out on a player they were interested in. Bregman was probably the most wanted of all those in recent memory. I get that. That fact does make this more impactful and concerning. If they can't get the guy they really wanted most of all over several years, then WTF?

I just am not about to place all the blame on the guy following the orders given him, and yes we do not know what orders were given him, which is all the more reason for me to not jump to conclusions, and certainly what "more knowledgeable" taking heads on ESPN and wherever else isn't going to force me to make a false choice.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

And Henry pockets the difference?

Yes.  Stockholders of a corporation typically share equally in the profits and losses.

[Old Red]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally get that point. What makes you think I don't?

The Sox have missed out on "the player they wanted" countless times. They may have come closest on Breggie, but so what, They set a price and got beat, once again, The limits are set by the team so I can't see why they'd blame Brez for sticking to the limits they place on him.

It seems to me that is the point one of us is missing.

Of course they wanted Breggie and are upset we didn't get him. It's the assigning blame part i am odds with you over and NOT the fact that we missed out on our Plan A. (I'm pretty sure he was plan A.)

Why ask if I think Cora wanted him back? You think I feel he didn't? What did I ever say to make you even thing to ask such an absurd, yes absurd, question?

You often think the problem with someone who disagrees with you is because the simply don't understand or are "missing the point." Of course, everyone sees the point that is front and center: once again, the Sox missed out on a player they were interested in. Bregman was probably the most wanted of all those in recent memory. I get that. That fact does make this more impactful and concerning. If they can't get the guy they really wanted most of all over several years, then WTF?

I just am not about to place all the blame on the guy following the orders given him, and yes we do not know what orders were given him, which is all the more reason for me to not jump to conclusions, and certainly what "more knowledgeable" taking heads on ESPN and wherever else isn't going to force me to make a false choice.

You are just pure speculating that JH set a limit, and said not to give a no trade clause. or that Brez was given any orders at all. I haven’t seen ANY reports whatsoever to say he did.  I’m also not saying he didn’t.Once again I’m not asking you to jump to any conclusions, or make false claims, or anything else, but it shouldn’t bother you when others do have a opinion on what is known,and you are not going to force them not to. s*** SHOW, F—- up, bungled, botched, failed, messed up, Go Fish will live on. You have your opinions, and others have theirs, and that’s how it works.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Donovan is too expensive?  He made $2.8 mill last year…

Numbers have no meaning in Fred's world.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You are just pure speculating that JH set a limit, and said not to give a no trade clause. or that Brez was given any orders at all. I haven’t seen ANY reports whatsoever to say he did.  I’m also not saying he didn’t.Once again I’m not asking you to jump to any conclusions, or make false claims, or anything else, but it shouldn’t bother you when others do have a opinion on what is known,and you are not going to force them not to. s*** SHOW, F—- up, bungled, botched, failed, messed up, Go Fish will live on. You have your opinions, and others have theirs, and that’s how it works.

So, you wanna believe that Brez placed the NTC limit on himself. You wanna believe he chose to put massive deferments on the contract, by himself. Fine, but that is you speculating, not me. Talk a out "missing the point" and see the "exact opposite."

I'm not saying I know. I'm not speculating. I came right out and said "We don't know the orders given to him," so how is that speculating he was known to have orders?

It's you speculating and blaming based on speculations.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Makes no sense, once again.

It's like you are speaking Spanish.

I thought everyone in Texas spoke Spanish?

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Numbers have no meaning in Fred's world.

I think it's kinda funny how the money saved on the Hicks deal is about $6M x 2 years, and Donovan's arb estimate is about $6M for year 1.

[Hugh2]

Sox obviously fumbled with Bregman, they could literally go out and get a few guys who will probably be better than Alex over the next several years but are unwilling to pay the price.  
 

it really feels like a move HAS to be coming, and it’s hard to fully grade the offseason until we know what that move is. 
 

if I could split things up I’d say.  
 

pitching A- (minus because no relief help)

hitting - incomplete.  If no moves are made I’ll give them a D- a big name added like Marte to Shaw could compel me to move that grade up to an A.  The other names being mention is c-b territory 

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has Hicks (-$18M) , Sandlin ($6M) and only $8M to CWS for Gage Ziehl (worth $1M)

-$4M for +$1M

This would save us $6.3M x 2 on the AAV line and $8.3M x 2 in actual salary. That gets us closer to being able to sign E Suarez and stay below line 3, but still not quite there, unless his value falls to about $16M AAV.

Cots has us at $260.6.  We have plenty enough to land Suarez.