A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wrote "since 04" because I wanted to go back to the 04 offseason when they had to replace Lowe and Pedro and it was very depressing looking at all the bad FA signings as I kept going and going.  

Okay. The Schilling deal was NOV '03, but I was thinking it was for 2004, so I counted it.

We've done way better in trades, for sure.

Peavy did okay, too, but that was not like Nate and the others listed.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Gio had his March '24 and was back in 12 months. Sandoval had his June '24 and he wasn't able to make it back before the end of the season. He should be ready to go, but these things aren't 100%. 

But wasn't what kept Sandoval from pitching in 2025 another injury?

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

For all the talk of the budget that happens on here, and how much the Red Sox have to spend Sandoval was a Big Waste of $18M to me.

you'd think the idiots that run the Sox front office would learn, but i guess not. they sign one injured player after another to do nothing but rehab. dumbest f***ing thing i've ever seen.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you'd think the idiots that run the Sox front office would learn, but i guess not. they sign one injured player after another to do nothing but rehab. dumbest f***ing thing i've ever seen.

Bloom did, and Brez has followed in his footsteps.🙈

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Bloom did, and Brez has followed in his footsteps.🙈

Gio had no injury history, but Buehler & Sandoval did.

In the pen, Hendriks was an injury signing, but Chapman & Wilson were not. He inherited Jansen & Martin year one.

[moonslav59]

Steamer projects (at 650 PAs) :

2.5 Duran (2.7)

2.4 Rafaela (3.1)

2.3 Anthony (3.0)

1.8 Narvaez (3.1)

1.7 Abreu (2.4)

1.4 Mayer (2.0)

1.3 Story (2.0)

1.2 Casas (1.9)

1.1 Romy (2.0)

0.5 Yoshida (1.1)

0.4 Campbell (1.7)

0.4 Wong (1.1)

_______________

Pitchers (per 180-190 IP)

5.6 Crochet (5.6)

3.9 Gray (3.9)

2.2 Bello (2.3)

1.7 Sandoval (2.5)

1.1 Crawford (1.7)

1.1 Early (3.3)

0.9 Tolle (1.5)

0.6 Harrison (1.3)

RP'ers:

1.0 Chapman

0.8 Whitlock

0.4 Slaten

0.3 Moran & Hicks

0.2 Weissert & Kelly

 

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is the last "good" FA starter contract John Lackey? Even that had 3 lost seasons. Since '04, they've been better off trading for starters (Beckett, ERod, Sale, Crochet, Porcello, Eovaldi) than getting a FA. 

I agree 100 percent. Trades have been an important part of roster building for us. 
 

yet another reason why drafting/international free agent signings and especially development are the lifeblood of an organization!!!  

[notin]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is the last "good" FA starter contract John Lackey? Even that had 3 lost seasons. Since '04, they've been better off trading for starters (Beckett, ERod, Sale, Crochet, Porcello, Eovaldi) than getting a FA. 

Eovaldi was signed as a free agent after 2018.  He was free to negotiate with every team, was considered hot property that off-season, and happened to re-sign with Boston.  (I got called out for saying Toronto hasn’t lost Chris Bassett yet; you can’t have it both ways, folks).

Lackey was far from a good contract.  4 and 1/2 years, 111 starts and only 3.9 bWAR?  He had his moments, but that contract was far from a success.  Matt Clement was worth 3.1 bWAR in his first 32 starts, and no one considers that a good contract…

[moonslav59]

Nate was a FA, but it just feels too much like an extension.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

But wasn't what kept Sandoval from pitching in 2025 another injury?

I don't believe so. 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe so. 

I don't really care enough to dig deep and look this up at the moment, but I'm fairly certain that his recovery just took a little longer than expected, he wasnt' injured again. 

[moonslav59]

I can't find anything that says it was a new injury or a e-injury- just that his progress was slowed.

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't find anything that says it was a new injury or a e-injury- just that his progress was slowed.

I think you were confusing his situation and Hendriks who collected situations like pokémon. 

[sk7326]

12 hours ago, notin said:

Eovaldi was signed as a free agent after 2018.  He was free to negotiate with every team, was considered hot property that off-season, and happened to re-sign with Boston.  (I got called out for saying Toronto hasn’t lost Chris Bassett yet; you can’t have it both ways, folks).

Lackey was far from a good contract.  4 and 1/2 years, 111 starts and only 3.9 bWAR?  He had his moments, but that contract was far from a success.  Matt Clement was worth 3.1 bWAR in his first 32 starts, and no one considers that a good contract…

Lackey was a bad deal on a WAR basis for sure.  That said, the Tommy John of it all in the early going makes it a little harder to bash.  And of course the team doesn't win the 2013 banner without him.  

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Lackey was a bad deal on a WAR basis for sure.  That said, the Tommy John of it all in the early going makes it a little harder to bash.  And of course the team doesn't win the 2013 banner without him.  

That contract should include the 5.8 from the following season though. It's not Lackey's fault the Sox traded him. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

That contract should include the 5.8 from the following season though. It's not Lackey's fault the Sox traded him. 

But hey.... we got Joe Kelly!!!!

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

But hey.... we got Joe Kelly!!!!

Allen Craig tho

[Larry Cook]

Is bres-slow serious about trading for ragans?? 
 

is ragans rotator cuff functional at this point?? 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Is bres-slow serious about trading for ragans?? 
 

is ragans rotator cuff functional at this point?? 

Ragans Sept '25:

3 GS, 13 IP, 22 K, 0.76 WHIP

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Allen Craig tho

I was trying not to ruin everyone's day.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ragans Sept '25:

3 GS, 13 IP, 22 K, 0.76 WHIP

Shoulder hanging by a thread.

[Larry Cook]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ragans Sept '25:

3 GS, 13 IP, 22 K, 0.76 WHIP

So ragans is long relief now?? Duran may be an overpay 

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Shoulder hanging by a thread.

I've heard you can do better as injuries progress because what's left isn't enough to cause you pain.  In Lackey's 2011 year with the RS, he had some good stretches.  15 ERs in his first two starts,  3 ERS in his next three starts.  17 ERs in his next two starts.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

So ragans is long relief now?? Duran may be an overpay 

That was after missing time on the IL. 

[Hitch]

22 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Lackey was a bad deal on a WAR basis for sure.  That said, the Tommy John of it all in the early going makes it a little harder to bash.  And of course the team doesn't win the 2013 banner without him.  

Lackey was a good deal. As you say - he was part of us winning a WS. Nothing else matters. 

[Hitch]

Ragans is so difficult to predict in terms of value. The guy clearly has a sketchy injury record, but when he's healthy he's some pitcher.  Almost every trade offer I've seen for him (even the fair(ish) ones) as been met by either rolling eyes from Sox or Royal fans. 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Ragans is so difficult to predict in terms of value. The guy clearly has a sketchy injury record, but when he's healthy he's some pitcher.  Almost every trade offer I've seen for him (even the fair(ish) ones) as been met by either rolling eyes from Sox or Royal fans. 

His injury issues are very concerning, but man, the guy can pitch, when healthy!

[notin]

15 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Ragans is so difficult to predict in terms of value. The guy clearly has a sketchy injury record, but when he's healthy he's some pitcher.  Almost every trade offer I've seen for him (even the fair(ish) ones) as been met by either rolling eyes from Sox or Royal fans. 

The Royals gave good SP beyond Ragans, but removing him to get an OF feels counterproductive, much like with Hunter Greene.  
 

Bubic has one year left plus injury concerns, which makes him a questionable target.   I could see a Wilyer Abreu/Noah Cameron swap, which works on BTV, but it feels like more of the same.  Where does Cameron really rank when listed with Tolle, Early, Perales, Dobbins, Harrison?

A swap of Duran for Maikel Garcia fills a need for an infielder with Boston, but makes little sense for KC considering they could move Garcia to the OF and save money.  They’ve already experimented with this move last year.  Plus, do they have the infield depth to cover it?

 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

The Royals gave good SP beyond Ragans, but removing him to get an OF feels counterproductive, much like with Hunter Greene.  
 

Bubic has one year left plus injury concerns, which makes him a questionable target.   I could see a Wilyer Abreu/Noah Cameron swap, which works on BTV, but it feels like more of the same.  Where does Cameron really rank when listed with Tolle, Early, Perales, Dobbins, Harrison?

A swap of Duran for Maikel Garcia fills a need for an infielder with Boston, but makes little sense for KC considering they could move Garcia to the OF and save money.  They’ve already experimented with this move last year.  Plus, do they have the infield depth to cover it?

 

Has Wacha's name been floated about?

[harmony]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

Ragans is so difficult to predict in terms of value. The guy clearly has a sketchy injury record, but when he's healthy he's some pitcher.  Almost every trade offer I've seen for him (even the fair(ish) ones) as been met by either rolling eyes from Sox or Royal fans. 

A Kansas City blogger proposes a trade of Cole Ragans to Boston for Jarren Duran,  Kyson Witherspoon and Jhostynxon Garcia:

https://royalskeep.com/news-rumors/kansas-city-royals/what-would-it-take-for-kansas-city-to-trade-away-cole-ragans-r3968/