A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

This falls into the “why not just go with Early instead?” category…

Agree. I like Early's chances more.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

This falls into the “why not just go with Early instead?” category…

They'd have more room for FA acquisitions and wouldn't have to dump players to get him into the rotation. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

You don't like 959 OPS vs LHP I guess? 

Moon: Who will be the first shoe to fall

MVP: Refsnyder 1/4

Drew: thats a small shoe

According to Googla/AI: US shoe size of 1/4 is typically a very small infant size. It corresponds to a foot length of approximately 3.5 inches and can vary slightly depending on the brand and specific size chart. 

• • Infant size: Size 1/4 is an infant size, often for babies between 3-6 months old.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Moon: Who will be the first shoe to fall

MVP: Refsnyder 1/4

Drew: thats a small shoe

According to Googla/AI: US shoe size of 1/4 is typically a very small infant size. It corresponds to a foot length of approximately 3.5 inches and can vary slightly depending on the brand and specific size chart. 

• • Infant size: Size 1/4 is an infant size, often for babies between 3-6 months old.

Ref is a slipper not a shoe.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Moon: Who will be the first shoe to fall

MVP: Refsnyder 1/4

Drew: thats a small shoe

According to Googla/AI: US shoe size of 1/4 is typically a very small infant size. It corresponds to a foot length of approximately 3.5 inches and can vary slightly depending on the brand and specific size chart. 

• • Infant size: Size 1/4 is an infant size, often for babies between 3-6 months old.

Googla? Get that AI nonsense out of here. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Ref is a slipper not a shoe.

3rd on the team in wRC+ last season. 🫠

Only Red Sox player over the past 3 seasons with 20+ HR, 10+ SB, 10+ BB%.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

3rd on the team in wRC+ last season. 🫠

Only Red Sox player over the past 3 seasons with 20+ HR, 10+ SB, 10+ BB%.

I've been Ref's top promoter on this site. Nobody comes close.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've been Ref's top promoter on this site. Nobody comes close.

Seems like you dropped that glass slipper. 🥿

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Seems like you dropped that glass slipper. 🥿

It's made out of rubber.

 

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not the biggest guy on the Sandy Alcantara boat, but that statcast page is very misleading. 

I'd love to know how much red we'd see over blue if we saw the second half of his season. 

I was going to say the same thing.  In his final 12 games, he had a 3.13/3.75 ERA/FIP with a 69/18 K/W in 77.2 IPs.  In his final 8 games, it was a 2.68/3.62 with a 52/10 in 53.2 IPs.  That's really good.  And his contract is affordable, but expensive enough that Miami will be motivated to trade him.

[moonslav59]

It's gonna come down to JH & the winter budget.

We've already spent a big chunk and probably still need a #2 SP or a co-#3 with Gray. Sure, Gray or even Bello, Early, Sandoval or someone else may step into a 2-3 role, but counting on it is dreaming.

Using more trade capital and financial costs for someone like Alcantara or M Keller would mean the budget will have to be super high to also be able to fill our two big bat needs.

There are many different ways to build a winning team, and supersizing the rotation would take some heat off the need for 2 big bats, but we'd still need one, at least. I read somewhere that Merrill Kelly could have given us what Gray will, at near the same contract cost. I'm not so sure, but some big questions remain about this upcoming winter.

[Larry Cook]

On 11/25/2025 at 8:09 AM, mvp 78 said:

Does he need another 5th starter? 

 

It is not about how he did in 2025, it is a gamble to see how close he gets back to his previous form! 
 

most of the scouts think his stuff will tighten up in year 2 and have the sharp breaks it had previously 

[Larry Cook]

Would bres-slow have any interest in signing bassit? He may be a 5th starter, but his stuff is still decent!! 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Would bres-slow have any interest in signing bassit? He may be a 5th starter, but his stuff is still decent!! 

Not really. It would have to be really cheap IMO. 

[drewski6]

On 11/25/2025 at 11:20 AM, notin said:

This falls into the “why not just go with Early instead?” category…

One reason is because you arent getting Marte without Early in the package, now that 30 teams are confirmed interested because "duh"

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not really. It would have to be really cheap IMO. 

I was interested for a bit becuase of the splitter but Id rather have Senga or even better yet Imai

[Larry Cook]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I was interested for a bit becuase of the splitter but Id rather have Senga or even better yet Imai

Do you think senga can have a bounce back year? 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you think senga can have a bounce back year? 

Yes, he was one of the best pitchers in MLB last year before his injury.  But he really struggled upon returning ,and he carries significant injury risk.

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Yes, he was one of the best pitchers in MLB last year before his injury.  But he really struggled upon returning ,and he carries significant injury risk.

What injury risk. I thought he pulled a hamstring last season 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Do you think senga can have a bounce back year? 

The Mets desperately need SP and are making Sengai available?  Buyer beware!

[Larry Cook]

Just now, notin said:

The Mets desperately need SP and are making Sengai available?  Buyer beware!

Good point! Maybe we need to investigate further. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I was interested for a bit becuase of the splitter but Id rather have Senga or even better yet Imai

I don't know what kind of value Senga has after needing to spend the end of last season in AAA and still being owed 30M. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

What injury risk. I thought he pulled a hamstring last season 

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-mets/mets-injury-prone-star-is-being-offered-in-trades-has-a-strong-market/

Senga managed only 5.1 innings in 2024 due to injuries, never quite stabilizing long enough to reclaim his early momentum. This year teased a return to form when he opened with a 1.39 ERA through mid-June, only for a hamstring strain to derail everything. The Mets watched him hit the injured list again, lose some edge upon returning, and ultimately slide to Triple-A in a move no one could have imagined back in 2023.

[Larry Cook]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't know what kind of value Senga has after needing to spend the end of last season in AAA and still being owed 30M. 

If senga throws good at the wbc, then I doubt the Mets trade him! 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If senga throws good at the wbc, then I doubt the Mets trade him! 

That's not until the beginning of March. Most rosters should be set by then. 

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's gonna come down to JH & the winter budget.

We've already spent a big chunk and probably still need a #2 SP or a co-#3 with Gray. Sure, Gray or even Bello, Early, Sandoval or someone else may step into a 2-3 role, but counting on it is dreaming.

Using more trade capital and financial costs for someone like Alcantara or M Keller would mean the budget will have to be super high to also be able to fill our two big bat needs.

There are many different ways to build a winning team, and supersizing the rotation would take some heat off the need for 2 big bats, but we'd still need one, at least. I read somewhere that Merrill Kelly could have given us what Gray will, at near the same contract cost. I'm not so sure, but some big questions remain about this upcoming winter.

I saw quite a few posts last night suggesting that Bello could be moved for an upgrade. That's the only way I see us getting another starting pitcher in. $9m on the LT. Otherwise I think we're set, unless we miraculously manage to shift Masa. 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I saw quite a few posts last night suggesting that Bello could be moved for an upgrade. That's the only way I see us getting another starting pitcher in. $9m on the LT. Otherwise I think we're set, unless we miraculously manage to shift Masa. 

I can see us dealing Early and Harrison for position player(s) and then grabbing anotehr starter.  BUt I fully agree that at least one (probably more than 1) pitcher would have to be on the move for roster balancing purposes.

Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Early, Tolle, Uberstine, Drohan, Criswell, Dobbins, Harrison, Sandlin is a lot of guys competing for 2 spots (behind Crochet, Sonny, and the pitcher we would be trading for)

[drewski6]

46 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Good point! Maybe we need to investigate further. 

Let us know what you find, gumshoe

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I saw quite a few posts last night suggesting that Bello could be moved for an upgrade. That's the only way I see us getting another starting pitcher in. $9m on the LT. Otherwise I think we're set, unless we miraculously manage to shift Masa. 

I think we may be done with the rotation. We basically swapped out Buehler's $21M/1 deal for Gray at the same cost. I'm confident Gray can beat Gio's 2025 numbers, but it's not a sure bet.

Gray is top 5-10 in some key stats, but 30th to 40th in others. If you go back 3 years, which includes his very nice 2023 season, Gray looks like a solid #2, but with 36 year old pitchers, I feel like the last one or one+two seasons matter more. In the stats where more IP matter, Gray jumps many other pitchers who pitched better but maybe gave less value, due to less or much less IP. Most of Gray's numbers went down from '24 to '25, so in a way I'm doing him a favor by choosing the '24-'25 sample size for this break down.

30 Teams x 5 SP'ers = 150 SP'ers. It's pretty sad that you have to lower the IP sample size to about 145 IP over 2 seasons to get to 150 SP'ers to compare and contrast, but here it goes...

5th xFIP 2.95 (14th in FIP at 3.26)

7th SIERA at 3.17

8th K-BB% 23% 

14th fWAR 7.4

14th K% 28.4%

18th BB% 5.4%

22- IP 347

73- ERA 4.07 (46th xERA 3.78)

T75 to 80th in ERA- at 100

If you group #1s as 1-30th best, Gray is a #1 in all but the last 2 categories. (These are not the most important 10 categories and some kinda duplicate each other.)

His ERA and ERA- place him in the #3 group. One could split the difference and call him a #2 based on his 2024-2025 numbers only and not look at age trends or performance trends over the last 3 years.

IMO, he's okay as a #2. I had hoped for better, and I think we'd have more money to spend on top batters had we traded for Ryan or Lodolo types, or even Gore, Ragans and Bubic types.

We did not use up a lot of trade capital, so if we trade for a big bat like K Marte, then one can see the reasoning in getting Gray not Ryan types.

[moonslav59]

Every year, I do this, and I'm not sure why. It means very little, but it does seem kinda interesting.

Players lost: (More pitchers that I expected)

3.41 Giolito (145 IP/55 ER)

5.45 Buehler (112.1/68)

3.15 Bernardino (51.2/18)

3.35 Wilson (48.1/18)

5.00 Fitts (45/25)

8.04 Houck (43.2/39)

3.95 Newcomb (41/18)

3.12 Murphy (34.2/12)

5.40 May (28.1/17)

2.08 Matz (21.2/5)

4.15 Guerrero (17.1/8)

3.31 Alcala (16.1/11)

6.59 Hendriks (13.2/10)

3.86 Wink (11.2/5)

20.1 IP/19 ERs Campbell (still here), Burdi, Fulmer, Stock, Eaton & Toro

Total: 

601 IP (over 41% of all IP in 2025!)

328 ERs

4.91 ERA

Added:

4.28 S Gray (181 IP)

Sandlin, Uberstine & Drohan

Expect more IP from:

0 to 150+? Crawford (4.36 in 184 in '24)

0-140+? Sandoval (4.11 in 145 in '23)

61 to 101+? Dobbins (4.13 in 61 in '25)

19 to 119+??? Early (2.33 in 19 in '25)

16 to 86+ ???Tolle (6.06 in 16 in '25)

12 to 82+? Harrison (3.00 in 12 in '25/ 4.04 including w SFG)

34 to 54+ ?Slaten (4.24 in 34 in '25/ 2.93 in 55 in '24)

That's 600 IP added before these two:

Moran (6.75) & Hicks (8.20)