Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd try to sub Clarke or Valera & Mullins/Sandlin, but I'm not sure that would be enough.

Teams aren't going to want to load up on Rule 5 guys prior to the draft. 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Agreed, but Duran led the Red Sox in extra base hits, and by a lot.  He had 70 and the next best was 54.  He was not the problem with the offense.

Duran also led the team in PA's by 42. Third highest was 109 behind him. Fourth highest was 200 behind him. He had a worse OBP than 5 guys with 200+ PA's. There were 6 guys with better OPS's with 200+ PA's. 

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Teams aren't going to want to load up on Rule 5 guys prior to the draft. 

Mullins will likely not get picked. Sandlin, too. I suppose we could wait until after Rule 5 for that offer.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran also led the team in PA's by 42. Third highest was 109 behind him. Fourth highest was 200 behind him. He had a worse OBP than 5 guys with 200+ PA's. There were 6 guys with better OPS's with 200+ PA's. 

True, but he still is one of our best offensive players, even without his baserunning. Some of the batters you mentioned are straight platoon players, but maybe Duran should be too.

[Duran Is The Man]

55 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd try to sub Clarke or Valera & Mullins/Sandlin, but I'm not sure that would be enough.

how about Abreu and some combo of those guys? Duran's bWAR this season was higher than Marte's. and he's apparently more durable than about anybody on the team.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

how about Abreu and some combo of those guys? Duran's bWAR this season was higher than Marte's. and he's apparently more durable than about anybody on the team.

We need a 2Bman and have 4 FT OF'ers with 2-3 promising reserves.

Duran did miss time in '23,

[notin]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Mullins will likely not get picked. Sandlin, too. I suppose we could wait until after Rule 5 for that offer.

Sandlin might be the only player Boston protects…

[Hitch]

It's too simplistic to say that the infield is where the problems are, so we won't sign anyone in the outfield. We would just make trades from our outfield depth to bring in the help needed at infield in that case. The bigger issue is that we have next to no chance of signing Tucker. 

Regardless, I'd be very surprised if one of Abreu/Duran isn't moved this off season. 

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Mullins will likely not get picked. Sandlin, too. I suppose we could wait until after Rule 5 for that offer.

Sandlin would definitely get picked based on his stuff. Compare his numbers to Slaten's. 

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but he still is one of our best offensive players, even without his baserunning. Some of the batters you mentioned are straight platoon players, but maybe Duran should be too.

852 vs RHP, 600 vs LHP

Maybe he should have been a platooned more, I agree. 

Hard to have Abreu AND Duran in the same lineup with those splits. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

852 vs RHP, 600 vs LHP

Maybe he should have been a platooned more, I agree. 

Hard to have Abreu AND Duran in the same lineup with those splits. 

Abreu is moving in the right direction with his splits v L. He's less expensive and has one more year of control. He's way better on D and plays Fenway's difficult RF very well.

I'm back to choosing Duran as the OF'er we should trade- not because I do not like him, but because I think he'll bring back what we need. (He'd be part of a bigger package.)

[notin]

50 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It's too simplistic to say that the infield is where the problems are, so we won't sign anyone in the outfield. We would just make trades from our outfield depth to bring in the help needed at infield in that case. The bigger issue is that we have next to no chance of signing Tucker. 

Regardless, I'd be very surprised if one of Abreu/Duran isn't moved this off season. 

The Sox could and should move an OF to fill a void in the INF if possible.  But spending heavily on the OF is very unlikely.  Some pundits have posed Tucker getting $500mill.  I consider that debatable.  But $350mill minimum is a guarantee.  I don’t see the Sox spending that much at a position in which they are fairly well set…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox could and should move an OF to fill a void in the INF if possible.  But spending heavily on the OF is very unlikely.  Some pundits have posed Tucker getting $500mill.  I consider that debatable.  But $350mill minimum is a guarantee.  I don’t see the Sox spending that much at a position in which they are fairly well set…

... not just set, but already invested in with team-reasonable contracts.

In other words, I just can't see the front office blowing Devers money on another outfielder who may not even be as good as Anthony next year.

 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox could and should move an OF to fill a void in the INF if possible.  But spending heavily on the OF is very unlikely.  Some pundits have posed Tucker getting $500mill.  I consider that debatable.  But $350mill minimum is a guarantee.  I don’t see the Sox spending that much at a position in which they are fairly well set…

Anthony - extended

Rafaela - extended

Duran/Abreu - cheap and under control

I don't see them going large on any position player TBH. If Freeman was on the market and 4 years younger, you do it, but only for a guy like that. 

[mvp 78]

 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony - extended

Rafaela - extended

Duran/Abreu - cheap and under control

I don't see them going large on any position player TBH. If Freeman was on the market and 4 years younger, you do it, but only for a guy like that. 

I have said multiple times they will move one of Duran or Abreu. And I reserve the right to flip-flop all off-season for on the better one to deal.

But even if they moved both, they don’t need another OF.  Despite that many have probably given up on Kristian Campbell, he isn’t dead.  In fact, that he only has 260 career plate appearances and a $60mill contract absolutely keeps him in the picture.  (His return to AAA was certainly statistically unsuccessful, but was he making adjustments and working on something?  If so, it can definitely make his stats look worse in multiple ways.)  Also Password is still on the team, but as he is a top 100 prospect, on the 40 man roster, and possibly 6th on the OF depth chart, it is quite possible he gets traded.  Imagine if Campbell’s does take over LF. Password would be a top 100 prospect behind 3 players all signed thru 2032 at a minimum…

 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran also led the team in PA's by 42. Third highest was 109 behind him. Fourth highest was 200 behind him. He had a worse OBP than 5 guys with 200+ PA's. There were 6 guys with better OPS's with 200+ PA's. 

At the end of the day, averaging 4.5 WAR per season over the last 2.5 seasons is pretty good.

Either that or we might as well chuck WAR, I guess.

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

I have said multiple times they will move one of Duran or Abreu. And I reserve the right to flip-flop all off-season for on the better one to deal.

Flip, flop and fly, man.  It's what we do.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox could and should move an OF to fill a void in the INF if possible.  But spending heavily on the OF is very unlikely.  Some pundits have posed Tucker getting $500mill.  I consider that debatable.  But $350mill minimum is a guarantee.  I don’t see the Sox spending that much at a position in which they are fairly well set…

The only way they sign Tucker is if they trade Duran AND Abreu. Both have high trade value but also serious flaws that have been pointed out endlessly.

I doubt we go this route. Instead, we need a 3Bman (Breggie or Mayer?) and 1Bman. I'd add 2B, but Mayer could play 2B or 3B. We need a replacement for Gio beyond returning guys like Crawford, Sandoval & Dobbins.

32 Huge needs- maybe 4. Losing Bregman and Devers' contracts should help, but we have lost of extensions kicking in, including Crochet's & Anthony's. We have trade pieces to fill 1 or 2 of these needs, so the money spent need not be too enormous for JH to handle, but with him, one never knows.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

At the end of the day, averaging 4.5 WAR per season over the last 2.5 seasons is pretty good.

Either that or we might as well chuck WAR, I guess.

Helps that it's skewed by him playing out of his mind last season. Over half of his career fWAR is from 2024. Will he be that good again? Hard to say. If his offensive numbers don't bounce back, his WAR won't get to that 3 year average ever again. 

[Bellhorn04]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Helps that it's skewed by him playing out of his mind last season. Over half of his career fWAR is from 2024. Will he be that good again? Hard to say. If his offensive numbers don't bounce back, his WAR won't get to that 3 year average ever again. 

It's skewed, but he still led Sox position players in 2025 fWAR at 3.9 (Rafaela 3.8) and was 2nd in bWAR at 4.6 to Rafaela's 4.8.  

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's skewed, but he still led Sox position players in 2025 fWAR at 3.9 (Rafaela 3.8) and was 2nd in bWAR at 4.6 to Rafaela's 4.8.  

WAR is still a counting stat and Duran led all Sox in PA's. 

If you go by bWAR, Rafaela has more WAR with over 100 fewer PA's. 

[mvp 78]

And it's good that he's still putting up WAR. It makes it easier to trade him. He still has value. 

[Old Red]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The only way they sign Tucker is if they trade Duran AND Abreu. Both have high trade value but also serious flaws that have been pointed out endlessly.

I doubt we go this route. Instead, we need a 3Bman (Breggie or Mayer?) and 1Bman. I'd add 2B, but Mayer could play 2B or 3B. We need a replacement for Gio beyond returning guys like Crawford, Sandoval & Dobbins.

32 Huge needs- maybe 4. Losing Bregman and Devers' contracts should help, but we have lost of extensions kicking in, including Crochet's & Anthony's. We have trade pieces to fill 1 or 2 of these needs, so the money spent need not be too enormous for JH to handle, but with him, one never knows.

I don’t see any major trades unless it’s for a top of rotation starter, and I don’t see any big long term FA signings either for pitching, or otherwise. Tucker would be to expensive for JH liking IMO. 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see any major trades unless it’s for a top of rotation starter, and I don’t see any big long term FA signings either for pitching, or otherwise. Tucker would be to expensive for JH liking IMO. 

Agreed. No Tucker. No Alonso or Schwarber, either.

Bregman was a bit of a surprise, but he was shorter term, and we ended dumping the Devers contract, so the "spending more" is still very much in the air.

I do think we make a big trade- maybe two, probably for a #2 SP'er but maybe also a 3Bman, 2Bman or 1Bman.

Maybe sign 1-2 mid level guys like Merrill Kelly, G Torres or Hoskins.

 

[Bellhorn04]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

WAR is still a counting stat and Duran led all Sox in PA's. 

If you go by bWAR, Rafaela has more WAR with over 100 fewer PA's. 

I certainly agree about the counting stat part, but Duran's durability the last 2 years has been a plus.  He's been the one guy they were able to pencil in every day.

 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I certainly agree about the counting stat part, but Duran's durability the last 2 years has been a plus.  He's been the one guy they were able to pencil in every day.

Doesn't particularly help when you're facing a LHP, but ok. 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Doesn't particularly help when you're facing a LHP, but ok. 

It would be nice if the Red Sox could replace Duran, or Abreu with a FT RHH OF.

[vegasbob]

On 10/5/2025 at 9:52 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

And planning with Casas is no easy matter.  Back to back seasons wiped out by injury at his age casts doubt on his whole career. 

Those counting on Casas to be the 1B stud are hoping as a strategy .    Let's see Casas in ST to see if he is physically ready , then plan on sending him to Worcester for end of March/April and let him show it, plus get over his "slow" start.

Same applies to Kristian Campbell, let's see some results before giving him a key role.  And that role should not be on the bench.

[vegasbob]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. No Tucker. No Alonso or Schwarber, either.

Bregman was a bit of a surprise, but he was shorter term, and we ended dumping the Devers contract, so the "spending more" is still very much in the air.

I do think we make a big trade- maybe two, probably for a #2 SP'er but maybe also a 3Bman, 2Bman or 1Bman.

Maybe sign 1-2 mid level guys like Merrill Kelly, G Torres or Hoskins.

 

Regarding FA signings and JH in general,  remember Bres signed Bregman to a $120MM deal while Devers was still on the team.  You cannot say they expected to trade him away in February.

Surely JH and Breslow see that there is an opportunity here to set the table for the next 3 years of a pennant contending team built around controlled cost youth.    So an impact trade for pitching plus an FA signing of a key RH bat  is not out of the question.    Imagine if Hicks and Yoshida's contracts could be moved on, with a 50% contribution to lighten the load.