Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

9 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I wasn't interested in Hoskins until I saw that. I think his swing profile would just pop at Fenway. 

Just like Bregman?

[UtahSox]

New here…. Love the Sox but feel that firepower is lacking. I don’t understand why so many are enamored with Abreu, and Rafaela they aren’t as young as some think. I’d like to see RS trade all 3 of the OF Duran, Abreu, Rafaela. Along with Password and maybe K Campbell

I feel like we are close and could turn this into a massive dynasty if we aggressively approach the off season. 

1b need upgrade Yandy Diaz/ Pete Alonso/Josh Naylor

2b Ketel Marte/ Brandon Lowe trade team friendly deals both would love Boston 

SS Story is not opting out…. But If he does Meyer

3b Bregman/ Meyer/ Suarez (didn’t go after him at trade deadline) so doubt it

OF sign Bellinger/Bader/Tucker , Roman Anthony, trade for Brent Rooker/ Kyle Ward 

DH Masa/ Romy

SP 

1 crochet

2 open free agent/trade Joe Ryan/ Alcantara/ F Valdez/ Gallen/ cease

3 open free agent/trade Joe Ryan/ Alcantara/ F Valdez/ Gallen/ cease

4. Bello

5. Early

 

any chance JH spends like the top5 team we all deserve? Do any of these guys make sense?

[Hitch]

Shame we couldn't get that win in the 2nd game - it was there for us. But no complaints otherwise. We needed to get back into the playoffs and did so. That's step 1 complete, we need to build on that now. 

I don't see Gio coming back, especially if there are any lingering arm worries, so I think a #2 starter is a must. Likely to be through trade I would imagine as I don't see us putting a lot of money out there for the FA's.  

I think one of Duran and Abreu will go, and if we can send Masa away without eating anything/too much as well that would be a bonus. 

Infield is the biggest concern. I actually think Bregman might stay for one more year. That injury and tail off at the end may have hurt his value. Even if he does, we need to sort 1B and Mayer at 2nd is a worry with his injury record. If Bregman does go, we have a lot of work to do there. I hope we go for Alonso. I was suggesting him last year with himself, Devers and Casas rotating the 3B/1B/DH spots. I very much want him now. Casas is done for me. If we can get anything for him in a trade do it, but he's not far off release territory with his injury record.

I also like Notin's idea of trading Hicks away for Murphy, but see it as unlikely. 

Much to do, much to build off. 

[Bellhorn04]

Rafaela had a great season and any talk of trading him is absurd.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rafaela had a great season and any talk of trading him is absurd.

RAF Man takes a lot of flak on here, and while his stats aren’t great his glove is worth something, and he had a lot of big hits along the way. He’s not the problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 hours ago, UtahSox said:

New here…. Love the Sox but feel that firepower is lacking. I don’t understand why so many are enamored with Abreu, and Rafaela they aren’t as young as some think. I’d like to see RS trade all 3 of the OF Duran, Abreu, Rafaela. Along with Password and maybe K Campbell

I feel like we are close and could turn this into a massive dynasty if we aggressively approach the off season. 

1b need upgrade Yandy Diaz/ Pete Alonso/Josh Naylor

2b Ketel Marte/ Brandon Lowe trade team friendly deals both would love Boston 

SS Story is not opting out…. But If he does Meyer

3b Bregman/ Meyer/ Suarez (didn’t go after him at trade deadline) so doubt it

OF sign Bellinger/Bader/Tucker , Roman Anthony, trade for Brent Rooker/ Kyle Ward 

DH Masa/ Romy

SP 

1 crochet

2 open free agent/trade Joe Ryan/ Alcantara/ F Valdez/ Gallen/ cease

3 open free agent/trade Joe Ryan/ Alcantara/ F Valdez/ Gallen/ cease

4. Bello

5. Early

any chance JH spends like the top5 team we all deserve? Do any of these guys make sense?

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[notin]

8 hours ago, UtahSox said:

New here…. Love the Sox but feel that firepower is lacking. I don’t understand why so many are enamored with Abreu, and Rafaela they aren’t as young as some think. I’d like to see RS trade all 3 of the OF Duran, Abreu, Rafaela. Along with Password and maybe K Campbell

I feel like we are close and could turn this into a massive dynasty if we aggressively approach the off season. 

1b need upgrade Yandy Diaz/ Pete Alonso/Josh Naylor

2b Ketel Marte/ Brandon Lowe trade team friendly deals both would love Boston 

SS Story is not opting out…. But If he does Meyer

3b Bregman/ Meyer/ Suarez (didn’t go after him at trade deadline) so doubt it

OF sign Bellinger/Bader/Tucker , Roman Anthony, trade for Brent Rooker/ Kyle Ward 

DH Masa/ Romy

SP 

1 crochet

2 open free agent/trade Joe Ryan/ Alcantara/ F Valdez/ Gallen/ cease

3 open free agent/trade Joe Ryan/ Alcantara/ F Valdez/ Gallen/ cease

4. Bello

5. Early

 

any chance JH spends like the top5 team we all deserve? Do any of these guys make sense?

I don’t see that level of overhaul coming, especially considering they just made the postseason…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Rafaela had a great season and any talk of trading him is absurd.

agreed.  And I doubt he will be.  Especially since I predicted they would trade Duran and Abreu and they’re not going to rebuild this year.

However if Bregman opts out, the Sox will need to fill up to 3 infield positions.  Lowe is an interesting thought at 2b.  Or at 1b.  In haven’t seen him suggested before

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

agreed.  And I doubt he will be.  Especially since I predicted they would trade Duran and Abreu and they’re not going to rebuild this year…

It does seem like one of Duran or Abreu should be traded.  As much as I like Abreu 's power, Duran has been much more durable and that counts for a lot.  But Duran is the one whose payday is coming quickest.  Breslow has some big decisions to make.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I think Duran's trade value now is as low as it can be, not the time to trade him but I don't know what the answer is.  He was so disappointing all season but he is also a guy I can see we regret trading down the road.

I also don't see how MM has proven that he can be a good hitter in the majors. 

I've been in the trade Abreu camp but again we are selling low.  

[notin]

27 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It does seem like one of Duran or Abreu should be traded.  As much as I like Abreu 's power, Duran has been much more durable and that counts for a lot.  But Duran is the one whose payday is coming quickest.  Breslow has some big decisions to make.

Definitely one, but it is possible both get moved.

Kristian Campbell is owed lots of money and has nowhere else to play.  And neither Duran nor Abreu would be given away.  If you believe the BTV projections, they combine for over $100mill in surplus value.  Tough to hold on to the type of OF depth the Sox have while other teams might be willing to pay for them properly…

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Definitely one, but it is possible both get moved.

Kristian Campbell is owed lots of money and has nowhere else to play.  And neither Duran nor Abreu would be given away.  If you believe the BTV projections, they combine for over $100mill in surplus value.  Tough to hold on to the type of OF depth the Sox have while other teams might be willing to pay for them properly…

Personally I think trading both of them would be nutty, unless there's a star outfielder we're acquiring that I don't know about.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's take a look at Duran's WAR the last 3 seasons:

2023 (roughly a half season) bWAR 2.2 fWAR 2.5

2024 bWAR 8.7 fWAR 6.8

2025 bWAR 4.6 fWAR 3.9

Totals bWAR 15.5 fWAR 13.2

We're talking 2.5 162 game seasons, basically.

So his average WAR would be somewhere around 4.5.

WAR is a counting stat, and Duran hardly missed any games in 2024-2025, so he benefits from that.

But the bottom line is, he has played like a bona fide star for 2.5 seasons.  Yes, his offense was MIA at times this year, but join the club.

He's a very valuable player.  

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Let's take a look at Duran's WAR the last 3 seasons:

2023 (roughly a half season) bWAR 2.2 fWAR 2.5

2024 bWAR 8.7 fWAR 6.8

2025 bWAR 4.6 fWAR 3.9

Totals bWAR 15.5 fWAR 13.2

We're talking 2.5 162 game seasons, basically.

So his average WAR would be somewhere around 4.5.

WAR is a counting stat, and Duran hardly missed any games in 2024-2025, so he benefits from that.

But the bottom line is, he has played like a bona fide star for 2.5 seasons.  Yes, his offense was MIA at times this year, but join the club.

He's a very valuable player.  

I don’t get into the War stuff except in old movies. I was all for trading Duran last offseason when his stock was highest, but many on here said no. Yes he plays hard, and shows up every game, but his offense can disappear, and he still looks like the butterfly man at times in the OF. I guess I’m just not all that impressed with his stretching singles into doubles, because he runs fast, and mad.

[Bellhorn04]

2025 Red Sox leaders in extra-base hits:

1 Duran 70

T2 Story and Rafaela 54

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Let's take a look at Duran's WAR the last 3 seasons:

2023 (roughly a half season) bWAR 2.2 fWAR 2.5

2024 bWAR 8.7 fWAR 6.8

2025 bWAR 4.6 fWAR 3.9

Totals bWAR 15.5 fWAR 13.2

We're talking 2.5 162 game seasons, basically.

So his average WAR would be somewhere around 4.5.

WAR is a counting stat, and Duran hardly missed any games in 2024-2025, so he benefits from that.

But the bottom line is, he has played like a bona fide star for 2.5 seasons.  Yes, his offense was MIA at times this year, but join the club.

He's a very valuable player.  

He is certainly a valuable player.  And if a team is trying to improve via trade, the non-valuable players rarely bring back anything worthwhile.

Duran’s value is largely from his offense.  Over those 3 seasons, his oWAR is 12.6 and his dWAR is 2.6.   2.6 is certainly above average, but his number is largely carried by his 2.5 dWAR in 2024. His offense is largely carried by numbers vs RHP.
 

He is still in his arb years and has not signed anything long term yet.  The sites BTV uses for projections for performance and salary indicate he carries a surplus value of $70mill.  
 

He could and should be a sought after player, particularly by the Dodgers and Phillies, two teams with short term plans, high payrolls, and questionable outfields.  Neither is likely to part with MLB players, but prospects that can be flipped works just as well.

Abreu does not carry the same surplus value, roughly half in fact.  So he is not projected to hit as well.  But he is also a good trade candidate.  His home runs would be missed, but let’s not go overboard there.  We are talking about 20-25 plate appearances out of 450.  While the power is nice, Abreu definitely brings a lot less to the plate in the 425 appearances in which the ball doesn’t leave the yard.

 

Kristian Campbell is the X factor.  Hes already been extended, really cannot play anywhere else, and it’s a safe bet the Sox didnt give up on the 23yo after 263 career PA, especially since he did win a Rookie of the Month award.  The talent is there…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I think trading both of them would be nutty, unless there's a star outfielder we're acquiring that I don't know about.

Giving them away would be nutty.  Trading them for fair value might not.

And I think the Sox want to get Campbell back at some point.

I do definitely think one player goes.  Duran would be more expensive.  Abreu shouldn’t be worth as much but a full year of pre-arb keeps him as a realistic option for more teams…

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

2025 Red Sox leaders in extra-base hits:

1 Duran 70

T2 Story and Rafaela 54

Duran’s slugging was behind Abreu’s.  His SB total was a disappointment this year, too.  He seemed to just stop running in June or so…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

I think Duran's trade value now is as low as it can be, not the time to trade him but I don't know what the answer is.  He was so disappointing all season but he is also a guy I can see we regret trading down the road.

I also don't see how MM has proven that he can be a good hitter in the majors. 

I've been in the trade Abreu camp but again we are selling low.  

Mayer has a total of 136 plate appearances. He really shouldn’t be able to prove or disprove anything at that point…

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Mayer has a total of 136 plate appearances. He really shouldn’t be able to prove or disprove anything at that point…

I’m not worried about what MM can do on the field it’s staying on the field.

[oldtimer]

I had my say on the outfield although the same general comments apply. We need team balance, more pop and reasonable OBP. Rafaela has the flexability to play some infield positions so that should be taken into account when considering trades, Our current infield plays include Bregman, Campbell, Casas, Eaton, Gonzalez, Grissom, Hamilton, Lowe, Mayer, Sogard and Story. Our number ! prospect  is Franklin Arias who projects as a good defensive shortstop and has surprised with his improved hitting. He might make the jump in 2026. 

Our infield situation is weak, with only Story a no-brainer. Hit well, good defender although got wild with his  throws late but was dependable this season. Bregman's  situation remains volatile. He  had a great start but appeared to wear down. Good defender, reported good in the clubhouse but is he worth $40 mil? If he gets a better offer we should let him go in my opinion. No matching long terms. Mayer looks to be developing into  a valuable ML player whether at 3rd, SS or 2nd. The big question is cann he stay healthy. Casas has the hit tool, assuming he gets back to the promise he showed but ditto with the can he stay healthy? Grissom appears to be gone since he wasn't used this passed year.

Romy Gonzalez appears to be capable enough to keep for 2nd base or utility. Hamilton and Eaton didn't add much offense but has some utility due to versatility and speed. Sogard was another player Cora seemed to like, both versatile and a swith hitter but certainly not a power hitter and difference maker.

I see our current situation as needing significant overhaul. Especially if Bregman leaves there will be resources to pick up a power hiitter. I would go for Alonzo (or equiv) at 1st base and part ways with the oft hurt Casas. He may have reasonable trade value. Mayer could play 3rd and fill-in at short should Story get injured. We have a big investment in Campbell and he has 2nd base potential and flexability for 1st or outfield. Sogard would be my final active roster guy with Eaton stashed on the 40 man. Somany choices and if Bregman stays a greatly different set of possibilities. 

I;d love to see a power hitting DH but don't see a way there with Yoshida in place.

[vegasbob]

I don't get the current enthusiasm here for K. Campbell.     After a great ST/April and the big contract , he did not just have a hiccup in May.  He totally fell off the rails and did  not really recover  at Woo.   

Not to say Kristian is a lost cause but doesn't he have to actually show he can play/hit before pencilling him into 2026 ?   For me , he goes to WooSox for April and shows he needs to come back.  The question then is what position ?

I would say the same about Casas , assuming his patella tendon fully recovers .  Are you ready to wait out April/May with a performance like pre-injury 2025 ? After all he is a slow starter ( excuse, but reality) . Go have that slow start in Worcester until it warms up.  

[vegasbob]

IMO, the way to move Yoshida, without eating all of his last 2 year's money is to bundle him with either Duran or Abreu and a young pitcher among our reliever candidates .     I really think there are teams who have serious hitting , K rates,  and run creation issues .  Angels top that list , but the A's need players also .

Also , the Sox have a surplus of utility players with only 2 , maybe 3, slots available  on the  2026 26 man active roster.  Consider  Wong as even another utility guy, but primarily back up catcher .   How does Breslow get value back from this surplus of marginal guys ?    

Say Bres keeps Eaton and Gonzalez for the bench . Refsnyder may yet retire , or he will get the OF backup/platoon role.  Will Hamilton and Sogard  be held at Worcester awaiting the inevitable Mayer injury ? Mayer's role depends a lot on Bregman's decision  , otherwise he is back at Worcester or takes one of the 2 bench slots awaiting the inevitable Bregman leg malfunction. 

Nat Lowe---forget he even exists , don't waste a 40 slot on him.   If you don't believe Casas will play out well, go get another guy.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Let's take a look at Duran's WAR the last 3 seasons:

2023 (roughly a half season) bWAR 2.2 fWAR 2.5

2024 bWAR 8.7 fWAR 6.8

2025 bWAR 4.6 fWAR 3.9

Totals bWAR 15.5 fWAR 13.2

We're talking 2.5 162 game seasons, basically.

So his average WAR would be somewhere around 4.5.

WAR is a counting stat, and Duran hardly missed any games in 2024-2025, so he benefits from that.

But the bottom line is, he has played like a bona fide star for 2.5 seasons.  Yes, his offense was MIA at times this year, but join the club.

He's a very valuable player.  

Agreed, and that is precisely why his trade value is so high. He also brings excitement to the game with his speed and unpredictability.

Abreu's defense, lower cost and extra year of control tips the balance to keep, for me. I'm keeping Rafaela in CF with the idea that we will upgrade the rest of the offense to help mitigate his shortcomings on O. Also, trading Duran further emphasizes the need to add on offense.He has been a top 2-3 player in our line-up. Trading Duran and losing Bregman means we need to add at least a couple clearly better bats than those two. That is not an easy task, when you figure we also need a top SP'er. Duran as the centerpiece for a trade should fill one of those major 3 slots to fill. A Free agent can and should fill another. The next 1-2 slots are the hard parts. JH will have to break the bank (unlikely) or we'll need to trade other key players or top prospects to get the top talent we need to get to the next level. I doubt Campbell has that kind of trade value, even if coupled with someone like Tolle, but maybe that would be enough to get someone like Joe Ryan or K Marte. (Maybe we'd need to reluctantly add Clarke or Valera.)

Lots of big Qs this winter.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

IMO, the way to move Yoshida, without eating all of his last 2 year's money is to bundle him with either Duran or Abreu and a young pitcher among our reliever candidates .     I really think there are teams who have serious hitting , K rates,  and run creation issues .  Angels top that list , but the A's need players also .

Also , the Sox have a surplus of utility players with only 2 , maybe 3, slots available  on the  2026 26 man active roster.  Consider  Wong as even another utility guy, but primarily back up catcher .   How does Breslow get value back from this surplus of marginal guys ?    

Say Bres keeps Eaton and Gonzalez for the bench . Refsnyder may yet retire , or he will get the OF backup/platoon role.  Will Hamilton and Sogard  be held at Worcester awaiting the inevitable Mayer injury ? Mayer's role depends a lot on Bregman's decision  , otherwise he is back at Worcester or takes one of the 2 bench slots awaiting the inevitable Bregman leg malfunction. 

Nat Lowe---forget he even exists , don't waste a 40 slot on him.   If you don't believe Casas will play out well, go get another guy.

Good take.

Another way to possibly move on from Yoshida is to deal him for another big contract, but not a DH. We could then move Duran to DH and keep our OF'ers. Trade Campbell or Jh Garcia along with Crawford or Dobbins/Harrison/Fitts and fill our need at 2B, 1B, 3B or SP. Guys like DHam, Grissom and Eaton can be traded or moved on from. I'd like to keep Romy and Sogard as our utility depth- maybe Eaton, too. (Sogard and Eaton would be AAA depth.)

Another way to free up some budget space would be to included Hicks ($12M AAV) in a deal. notin has mentioned a few deals for Yoshida and Hicks that I like, and I'd even throw in a prospect to make them happen, but I'm not sure anyone wants those two, and who they give back might be worse.

I hesitate to begin expecting JH to fork over huge amounts of cash. The run at Soto could have been a sham. The Bregman signing was quickly followed by the Devers dump, so my doubts remain. I hope he realizes the window in RIGHT NOW! It could even last 3-5 years, if we do things right. I think Brez and Cora are the right guys to help make it happen, but some extra budget room would go a long way at improving the odds they get it right.

Yes, the Buehler deal flopped. Yes, the Priester deal hurt us badly for 2025. Yes, the Devers trade was never balanced out. Some mistakes and oversights were made, but lots of good happened, too. Crochet, Narvaez, Chapman, Bregman, Wilson and even moves like Lowe, Eaton and the '24 addition of Gio worked out well.

We have a solid foundation- warts and all. Use it. Build upon it. Let's go for it in 2026!

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I’m not worried about what MM can do on the field it’s staying on the field.

A more legitimate concern.  But that’s why we have Romy…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

A more legitimate concern.  But that’s why we have Romy…

Do you trust Romy at 3B?

2B and 1B, fine.

Who is our back-up SS? (Please don't say DHam.) Sogard? Romy?

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox need a #2 starter, but they also need offense.  The offense looked like crap without Anthony in the lineup.  And we're talking about trading Duran and/or Abreu, and possibly losing Bregman as well.  Somebody needs to figure out where the offense comes from.

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, vegasbob said:

I don't get the current enthusiasm here for K. Campbell.     After a great ST/April and the big contract , he did not just have a hiccup in May.  He totally fell off the rails and did  not really recover  at Woo.   

Not to say Kristian is a lost cause but doesn't he have to actually show he can play/hit before pencilling him into 2026 ?   For me , he goes to WooSox for April and shows he needs to come back.  The question then is what position ?

I would say the same about Casas , assuming his patella tendon fully recovers .  Are you ready to wait out April/May with a performance like pre-injury 2025 ? After all he is a slow starter ( excuse, but reality) . Go have that slow start in Worcester until it warms up.  

Campbell is a million miles away from being on the team at the moment. Can't play defence anywhere and offence not anything near what it needs to be to overcome his no defence. If he could be traded for a good return, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But we won't get any return for him, for good reason. Same with Casas. 

Defence and sound fundamentals has to be some of the big things we look to improve on this off season. I can't take another season of errors and boneheaded nonsense.

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Do you trust Romy at 3B?

2B and 1B, fine.

Who is our back-up SS? (Please don't say DHam.) Sogard? Romy?

Romy needs to be a utility/platoon player not an every dayer at any position.