Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Im confused why they paid soto so much but are watching every penny w alonso.

I'm confused why we offered Soto $600M and not Alonso $100M/3.

[drewski6]

I think Alonso is the best bat on the market, when it was vlad he got 500m, when it was soto it was 700m. I dont think Alonso is going to come cheap.  If I have a choice between paying alonso 600m or an equivalent bat who DHs 200m (over same years, lets assume same age), Im taking the DH and spending the 400m saved on other holes, especially because its first base and Alonso isnt a plus defensively.  Im not paying 400m exra because mets manager played alonso in field when he really is prob best served at dh even last year.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm confused why we offered Soto $600M and not Alonso $100M/3.

Yeah, sign alonso for 100m/3 , and we prob beat yanks in game 2. So we'd still be playing and have alonso for 2 more years at a reasonable salary. I dont disagree.

[drewski6]

but i think that ship has sailed, and i dont think you are getting alonso for a penny under 300m.  

[drewski6]

ALso, alonso wasnt coming off his best year, he is now.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

ALso, alonso wasnt coming off his best year, he is now.

His best OPS+ seasons (all 680+ PAs seasons)

147 2019

146 2022

144 2025

Yes, his 122 and 123 seasons before 2025 did not help, but he still hit 80 HRs with 206 RBI.

I like the fact that he's a RHB and would be within a sea of LHBs with the Sox- much like Manny,

When I speak of us trying to do more big deals than a bunch of moderate one, Alonso is near the top of my thoughts, if not #1. He turns 31, soon, but that does not bother me. I'd like Schwarber, but I think Alonso is more likely to sign with a new team, despite the Mets deep pockets.

I don't think he gets anything near $300M. He might get $200M/6- maybe $210M/7, but I seriously doubt it.

 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

His best OPS+ seasons (all 680+ PAs seasons)

147 2019

146 2022

144 2025

Yes, his 122 and 123 seasons before 2025 did not help, but he still hit 80 HRs with 206 RBI.

I like the fact that he's a RHB and would be within a sea of LHBs with the Sox- much like Manny,

When I speak of us trying to do more big deals than a bunch of moderate one, Alonso is near the top of my thoughts, if not #1. He turns 31, soon, but that does not bother me. I'd like Schwarber, but I think Alonso is more likely to sign with a new team, despite the Mets deep pockets.

I don't think he gets anything near $300M. He might get $200M/6- maybe $210M/7, but I seriously doubt it.

 

So you think hes 40% the player that vlad is, or 30% the player soto is, or you think the market is going to snap back as if those contracts didnt happen?  Also, inflation 3% higher than it was last year.

I think Tucker and Alonso both easy clear 300m.  I think if you want a very good hitter for 200m, you need to look at some DHs. Which is my original point.  The market is discounting DHs too much.

[moonslav59]

Spotrac assigns these market values (AAV) to UFAs:

40.1 Tucker OF

33.3 Framber SP

29.4 Alonso 1B

26.9 R Suarez SP

26.4 Cease SP

24.9 Schwarber (DH but can play 1B)

23.3 Bichette SS (Can TOR afford him after Vladdy?)

18.7 Gallen

16.2 Eflin

15.9 M Kelly, 15.5 Bassitt, 15.1 Naylor, 15.0 E Suarez

Options/Opt Outs...

30.4 Bellinger

30.4 Imanaga

25.9 Story

25.0 Bregman

24.2 Bieber 

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

So you think hes 40% the player that vlad is, or 30% the player soto is, or you think the market is going to snap back as if those contracts didnt happen?  Also, inflation 3% higher than it was last year.

No. I do not think Soto or Vladdy set the market rate for everyone. 

Why are you just looking at the top two signings? Nobody else came close to Soto, even Alonso.

[moonslav59]

Why not compare Alonso's last winter signing to ....

$26M/7 W Adams

$31.7 AAV for Bregman

22 x 3 Teoscar (OPS+ 146, 131, 128, 108, 135 in previous seasons)

$18.5 5 Santander (coming off 120, 121, 131 OPS+ seasons)

Now, it looks closer to the "norm."

Soto was an outlier. There seems to be 1-2 a year.

 

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No. I do not think Soto or Vladdy set the market rate for everyone. 

Why are you just looking at the top two signings? Nobody else came close to Soto, even Alonso.

Because thats how markets work. The top sets the market, then it trickles down.  Bregman got 40m/year, which feels like a sharp increase.  I dont think that happens without soto/vladdy contracts.  ALso because I feel like Alonso and Tucker are the premiere bats so Im comparing them to recent premiere bats.

Its hard to think of a better comp than vlad. Power-hitting first baseman. Granted Alonso is 4 years older. Granted Toronto has to overpay because its an inconvenience living in canada and high tax rate (no offense to any Canadians here).  So Im adjusting down from vlad.  But Vlad got a contract that took him to (maybe through) age 40.  Bregman who got hurt, is a couple years removed from a full dominant season and is more likely than not to opt out. From a 40m AAV, with a player option for 40m following.  Thats equiv to 45m at least for 1 (the option is valuable) and hes about to leave it in the dust. And he doesnt look particularly healthy to me.

My best guess: Tucker gets close to 400m, Alonso gets close to 300m, Bregman gets 160m, we sit here laughing at all these "overpaying" GMs.  But also the elephant in the room will be "are we locked out from elite free-agents?" (Nervous look around the room)

 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why not compare Alonso's last winter signing to ....

$26M/7 W Adams

$31.7 AAV for Bregman

22 x 3 Teoscar (OPS+ 146, 131, 128, 108, 135 in previous seasons)

$18.5 5 Santander (coming off 120, 121, 131 OPS+ seasons)

Now, it looks closer to the "norm."

Soto was an outlier. There seems to be 1-2 a year.

 

Thats an adjusted AAV for Breg. He got 40m with an opt out after year 1 (adds significant value to the player side) and a player option after year 2 (adds significant value to the player side).

Plus that contract was late in free agency, when most teams were settled and it was kind of a 2-3 team race.

[drewski6]

6-7 at 30m for a top hitter on the market feels like a 2022 contract.  A lot has changed since 2022.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats an adjusted AAV for Breg. He got 40m with an opt out after year 1 (adds significant value to the player side) and a player option after year 2 (adds significant value to the player side).

Plus that contract was late in free agency, when most teams were settled and it was kind of a 2-3 team race.

Differed money is not worth as much, but even $40M is not really an outlier.

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

6-7 at 30m for a top hitter on the market feels like a 2022 contract.  A lot has changed since 2022.

Teoscar was 2025 money.

Santander had better recent numbers than Alonso, last winter.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Teoscar was 2025 money.

Santander had better recent numbers than Alonso, last winter.

These are better comps than Vlad tho?

Vlad and Alonso have 5 all-stars each and nearly identical career OPS.  And I know vlad is younger, but nobody is expecting alonso to sign for 14 yrs.  An age adjusted equiv of the vlad contract is like 9 yrs/320M.

And I dont think hes getting that, but I think hes getting north of 7/210M. I think hell have multiple offers for 5yrs @ 210 and if you want him, youll have to add the six year maybe coming down from 42 to an even 40 for the extra year. 240/6.  Its not that diff than breg getting 120m guaranteed with an opt-out and a player option included. I think you may be undervaluing the bold. Breg did a lot better than 40m aav when you include the bold.


 

[drewski6]

My point is that I think the bidding for Alonso will get unfomfotable, and Im hoping that the fact that Schwarber is seen as a DH and not a 1b will cap his next contract significantly below what Alonso will make, and I think it could make sense to switch to Schwarber and either live with him at 1b or put him at DH cuz the difference between the contracts will allow you to go get somebody else too, and I dont put a ton of value in the fact that alonso plays 1b poorly and schwarber plays 1b very poorly.  To me the difference in d isnt worth the 150m+ delta between the two contracts. I think Schwarber gets like 100m and alonso gets like 250m.

Could be wrong but contracts generally go up not down.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

These are better comps than Vlad tho?

Vlad and Alonso have 5 all-stars each and nearly identical career OPS.  And I know vlad is younger, but nobody is expecting alonso to sign for 14 yrs.  An age adjusted equiv of the vlad contract is like 9 yrs/320M.

And I dont think hes getting that, but I think hes getting north of 7/210M. I think hell have multiple offers for 5yrs @ 210 and if you want him, youll have to add the six year maybe coming down from 42 to an even 40 for the extra year. 240/6.  Its not that diff than breg getting 120m guaranteed with an opt-out and a player option included. I think you may be undervaluing the bold. Breg did a lot better than 40m aav when you include the bold.


 

I think Vladdy was grossly overpaid- perhaps because he is the face of the TOR club seaking to capitalize on a window of opportunity to win a ring.

There are so many more contracts like Teoscar, Santander, Alonso and Adams than Vladdy & Soto.

fWAR is greatly influenced by more PAs, and Alson is 6th in PAs since 2023. He's 62nd in fWAR at 8.4.

He's 25th in wRC+ among 103 players with 1500+ PAs.

22nd in OPS (just above Duran & Naylor)

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Could be wrong but contracts generally go up not down.

Yes, year to year, but as players near 31, their contracts don't always go up, unless it's their first tatse of free agency, or they are late bloomers.

[oldtimer]

Until the Bregman situation is clarified, it's difficult to know what resources will be available to land a big FA bat. On the other hand, the pitching situation is clearly another area to be concerned about. We had 22 pitchers on the roster with 6 more on the IL. Clearly we need another starter to fill the #2 role. What also concerns me is that Crochet pitched a lot of innings in 2025 and Champman is old. Both had exceptional years and without that excellence, where would the Sox have been? I would doubt both  can repeat their stellar performance in 2026. Trying to identify our pitchers for n 2026 but find it difficcult.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

Until the Bregman situation is clarified, it's difficult to know what resources will be available to land a big FA bat. On the other hand, the pitching situation is clearly another area to be concerned about. We had 22 pitchers on the roster with 6 more on the IL. Clearly we need another starter to fill the #2 role. What also concerns me is that Crochet pitched a lot of innings in 2025 and Champman is old. Both had exceptional years and without that excellence, where would the Sox have been? I would doubt both  can repeat their stellar performance in 2026. Trying to identify our pitchers for n 2026 but find it difficcult.

At least we have many pitchers with promise to roll the dice on. Some should do better in 2026, and that can make up for more human efforts by C & C.

[Hitch]

18 hours ago, Nick said:

“I learned a lot about the value of building relationships and having clear communication and spending time with the coaching staff and spending time with the players and certainly with (manager) Alex (Cora),” Breslow added. “And having honest conversations, uncomfortable as they may be at times. So I think the short answer there is, I’ve learned a ton.”

So we had a trainee running our ball club? I can't imagine DD every saying what Breslow admitted here. 

 

I mean, we knew he was new to the job, right? Why are we ragging on him for actually learning as he's going? 

I swear people just search day and night for things to bitch about. 

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Until the Bregman situation is clarified, it's difficult to know what resources will be available to land a big FA bat. On the other hand, the pitching situation is clearly another area to be concerned about. We had 22 pitchers on the roster with 6 more on the IL. Clearly we need another starter to fill the #2 role. What also concerns me is that Crochet pitched a lot of innings in 2025 and Champman is old. Both had exceptional years and without that excellence, where would the Sox have been? I would doubt both  can repeat their stellar performance in 2026. Trying to identify our pitchers for n 2026 but find it difficcult.

Agreed, all the guesses and summations are not worth a lot right now, not until we know what Bregman is doing and where we stand financially. But in terms of the pitching, I wonder if/wouldn't mind if we package some of our younger highly rated pitchers into one ready pitcher now. Ryan is the obvious choice after the Twins sell off. Maybe we can give them a few of our pitchers with high ceilings but a year or two away for Ryan. Not sure if that would interest the Twins mind,.

We have got A LOT of pitchers in the organisation. We're going to need to find ways to make them work for us at some point. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The problem with waiting on Bregman is waiting on Bregman. 

Boras is in the business of dragging out his clients' free agency through months of foliage, snowstorms and even birds chirping.

The Sox offseason cannot hinge on third base when they clearly have other areas of need. Breslow needs to target and go right after fortifications for the rotation and heart of the order, as soon as the best options are all available.

[Hitch]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The problem with waiting on Bregman is waiting on Bregman. 

Boras is in the business of dragging out his clients' free agency through months of foliage, snowstorms and even birds chirping.

The Sox offseason cannot hinge on third base when they clearly have other areas of need. Breslow needs to target and go right after fortifications for the rotation and heart of the order, as soon as the best options are all available.

This is true. But at least we'll have a little more clarity shortly after the WS. I'm still not convinced he's opting out. I would imagine Boras and Bres are in constant dialogue about the possibility of a restructured deal at the moment.

[moonslav59]

Spotrac has Alonso getting $5M more AAV than Schwarber. It's hard to guess how many years each gets, but I'll take Alonso. We aren't going to trade Yoshida, and we have players like Duran and Campbell who profile best at DH. As much as I like Schwarber, adding a DH further harms our defense by forcing poor defenders into on field positions.

I'd also look at E Suarez, since he can play 3B (barely) or be moved to 1B, if we go with Mayer or Story at 3B, next year (or if we keep Bregman.) If we do keep Bregman, even Suarez might cost too much to sign, and certainly Alonso & Schwarber would be off the wish list. It might end up like: Bregman 3B, Hoskins 1B, Mayer/Story at middle infield. Yoshida/Romy DH. Trade an OF + young pitching or Crawford for a better pitcher.

 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You just described Casas, but he needs to be surrounded by guys that are gonna goon it. 

Being surrounded by hackers flailing at sweepers in the dirt of the opposite batter's box gives pitchers no reason to ever challenge anyone with a fastball below the letters.

23-25

Casas: 13% BB, 27% K, 347 OBP

Soto: 18% BB, 18% K, 408 OBP

Casas's profile is closer to what Campbell did in MLB this season than Soto. A better comp could be Anthony, except that Anthony may have a better swing path with more hard contact. Both patient hitters. Casas has a much higher FB rate leading to easier outs in Fenway's expansive RF. 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Spotrac has Alonso getting $5M more AAV than Schwarber. It's hard to guess how many years each gets, but I'll take Alonso. We aren't going to trade Yoshida, and we have players like Duran and Campbell who profile best at DH. As much as I like Schwarber, adding a DH further harms our defense by forcing poor defenders into on field positions.

Maybe Alonso should be a DH?

Alonso: 10 errors, -9 DRS, -9 OAA, 26th in FRV

BOS all: 10 errors, -9 DRS, -6 OAA, 24th in FRV

[mvp 78]

Since 2021, he's 2nd worst in FRV for all players at -66.5 behind Nick Castellanos. 

[drewski6]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Spotrac has Alonso getting $5M more AAV than Schwarber. It's hard to guess how many years each gets, but I'll take Alonso. We aren't going to trade Yoshida, and we have players like Duran and Campbell who profile best at DH. As much as I like Schwarber, adding a DH further harms our defense by forcing poor defenders into on field positions.

I'd also look at E Suarez, since he can play 3B (barely) or be moved to 1B, if we go with Mayer or Story at 3B, next year (or if we keep Bregman.) If we do keep Bregman, even Suarez might cost too much to sign, and certainly Alonso & Schwarber would be off the wish list. It might end up like: Bregman 3B, Hoskins 1B, Mayer/Story at middle infield. Yoshida/Romy DH. Trade an OF + young pitching or Crawford for a better pitcher.

 

I dont hate the logic and think there is a universe in which, I agree.  I would certainly care more about ideal defensive alignment if we werent starting from such a hole from a power perspective.  If we already had one true middle of the order masher.  But considering we are talking about our #2/3 , unquestioned best hitter on the team, and we dont really have a great offense around the guy we are getting (alonso vs schwarber) , I think that if you can save some dough with shcwarber thats my pref because hes giving you 20-25% more with the bat which is a lot.

An A+ hitting DH is just way more valuable than a B+ hitting player who plays defense unless the latter is a plus defensive SS or CF. And I know Im in the minority on this, but I strongly believe it.

Im not even really against getting schwarber and Hoskins.