A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

98 plate appearances spread across 8 seasons.  It’s more coincidence at that point.

He beat the tar  out of the Sox in Boston last year.  But was it because of Fenway?  Or because he was hitting against Brad Keller and Brennan Bernardino? (Names not chosen randomly; Bregman homered off both of them.)

Previously on Bregman hits a dinger: ERod, Doug Fister, Price, Phillips Valdez, Bello. 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

 

 If the plan was to open the window in 2026 or 2027, I wish we'd have kept Teal, Montgomery and Meidroth.

 

 

 

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 If the plan was to open the window in 2026 or 2027, I wish we'd have kept Teal, Montgomery and Meidroth.

 

 

 

It would be a shame if we half punted on Crochets first year and let him walk after his second. It would be (unfortunately) kind of familiarly directionless.

Im just looking for ways to not half-ass next year.  Without a lineup upgrade, its hard for me to see this as a playoff team. Feels like we are relying on Campbell and Anthony too much.

[notin]

On 11/27/2024 at 6:35 PM, harmony said:

The inclusion of Masataka Yoshida is a likely deal-breaker in any trade negotiations with the Seattle Mariners.

Because the Mariners dont like hitters?  Ever think their aversion to capable hitters might be part of their problem?

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 If the plan was to open the window in 2026 or 2027, I wish we'd have kept Teal, Montgomery and Meidroth.

But you guys want some treats now! 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

It would be a shame if we half punted on Crochets first year and let him walk after his second. It would be (unfortunately) kind of familiarly directionless.

Im just looking for ways to not half-ass next year.  Without a lineup upgrade, its hard for me to see this as a playoff team. Feels like we are relying on Campbell and Anthony too much.

Henry has been putting all his eggs in the Big Three basked even before Campbell was invited to the party. I think it has been a mistake as not all prospects work out and even the best ones aren't always perfect right out of the box. Why put all that pressure on young guys to perform without surrounding them with the right talent? The great thing about adding these young studs is that they are CHEAP and can be surrounded with expensive guys in the short term before their contracts get big. 

[moonslav59]

Over the last few seasons, all we've pretty much had were hopes that just about everything could go right and maybe, just maybe, some magic could happen. For many of us the winter before 2021 was not hopeful, at all. I think I had more hopes going into 2022 than 2021, so I guess anything goes, right?

I'm not happy with the totality of our moves, this winter, and maybe something major will still go down, but there are a few things to be more hopeful about than there were, last winter, of the ones before.

We had a lot of questions about Houck and Crawford, last winter, and we still do, but I feel better about both, now. I was worried about Wong's bat, last winter, but now I'm not. (I am terrified about his defense, though, while last winter I had hopes he could improve.) I'm about equally concerned about the health of Casas, but I still am pretty sure the guy can rake. I feel way better about 2B than I have since Story was the FT'er there. The health concerns about Story at SS has not gotten any better. Devers at 3B feels the same. I fell way better about the OF, as Duran answered all Qs about him, Abreu looked real good on O & D and Rafaela did okay. The pen looks deeper but more sketchy with our top 2 guys going into 2025.

I have to think Buehler should be better than Pivetta, but he has to stay healthy. Adding Giolito to the mix looks good, on paper. Bello looks no better than he did last winter, but having Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins in AAA helps me think our rotation should be better with quality and quantity in 2025. The pen looks the opposite, to me, but there are so many promising arms that maybe we can cobble together a decent 8 and not take all season to settle on the right one.

Catcher looks worse. 1B about the same. 2B better. SS about the same- maybe a bit better. 3B the same. OF much better and the bench looks better than it did, last winter.

Overall, this seems to show we should be better, but we needed to get 10-20 games better, not 5-7 better. As always, we must rely on players staying healthy, and the list is long: Story at SS, Buehler at SP, Casas and Devers at corner IF, Giolito & Hendriks, Slaten & Whitlock, Yoshida and others, too.

Maybe, by opening day I will feel more optimistic, but I was hoping we could do better than just slightly improving and relying on the same hopes we've seen dashed, year-after-year.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Because the Mariners dont like hitters?  Ever think their aversion to capable hitters might be part of their problem?

But they have Crawford and Julio Rodriguez and Arozarena and... 

 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Over the last few seasons, all we've pretty much had were hopes that just about everything could go right and maybe, just maybe, some magic could happen. For many of us the winter before 2021 was not hopeful, at all. I think I had more hopes going into 2022 than 2021, so I guess anything goes, right?

I'm not happy with the totality of our moves, this winter, and maybe something major will still go down, but there are a few things to be more hopeful about than there were, last winter, of the ones before.

We had a lot of questions about Houck and Crawford, last winter, and we still do, but I feel better about both, now. I was worried about Wong's bat, last winter, but now I'm not. (I am terrified about his defense, though, while last winter I had hopes he could improve.) I'm about equally concerned about the health of Casas, but I still am pretty sure the guy can rake. I feel way better about 2B than I have since Story was the FT'er there. The health concerns about Story at SS has not gotten any better. Devers at 3B feels the same. I fell way better about the OF, as Duran answered all Qs about him, Abreu looked real good on O & D and Rafaela did okay. The pen looks deeper but more sketchy with our top 2 guys going into 2025.

I have to think Buehler should be better than Pivetta, but he has to stay healthy. Adding Giolito to the mix looks good, on paper. Bello looks no better than he did last winter, but having Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins in AAA helps me think our rotation should be better with quality and quantity in 2025. The pen looks the opposite, to me, but there are so many promising arms that maybe we can cobble together a decent 8 and not take all season to settle on the right one.

Catcher looks worse. 1B about the same. 2B better. SS about the same- maybe a bit better. 3B the same. OF much better and the bench looks better than it did, last winter.

Overall, this seems to show we should be better, but we needed to get 10-20 games better, not 5-7 better. As always, we must rely on players staying healthy, and the list is long: Story at SS, Buehler at SP, Casas and Devers at corner IF, Giolito & Hendriks, Slaten & Whitlock, Yoshida and others, too.

Maybe, by opening day I will feel more optimistic, but I was hoping we could do better than just slightly improving and relying on the same hopes we've seen dashed, year-after-year.

I liked the crochet deal and still do, but i was optimistic when the trade occurred that they would follow it up, and im losing that optimism. Last offseason i had 0 optimism that they were even trying other than dumping verdugo (which i approved of)

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

It would be a shame if we half punted on Crochets first year and let him walk after his second. It would be (unfortunately) kind of familiarly directionless.

Im just looking for ways to not half-ass next year.  Without a lineup upgrade, its hard for me to see this as a playoff team. Feels like we are relying on Campbell and Anthony too much.

I'm with you on this. The Crochet trade should have meant the window is open, now, and other moves should have/be made to build a team around him, Buehler and the existing core.

Signing Buehler, instead of Fried or Burnes is okay, I guess. Signing Chapman, instead of Scott leaves something to be desired, but maybe Hendriks can help. We really made no other major improvements, except Crochet and Buehler. When you look at what we saw walk away, it's not a major improvement. Some could argue it's not one at all. Pivetta may have been average, but he was the horse we've needed. O'Neill was out HR leader and only really good RHB, (okay Ref was, too.) Jansen and Martin were no slouches.

Rotation: better. Pen: worse. Line-up: worse. Defense: the same.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

But you guys want some treats now! 

I'm not the driver of that wagon.

I'd be fine with going all in, but I'm never a fan of "halfway."

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:
Im surprised we didnt get TH, personally. But pickens are getting slimmer and I think we need to upgrade the lineup.

Where can we truly upgrade our roster???

1B - casas - injured most of 2024. Potential superior power hitter, cost controlled. Defense is a dumpster fire!!!!

2B - Bergman? Or Campbell? - is Bergman at 200mm really that big an upgrade of Campbell???? Campbell very cost controlled. Both should be average defenders. 

SS - story - often injured. Decent defender. Decent hitter????

3B - devers - superior power hitter. Absolute dumpster fire on defense 

C - wong - decent hitter. If not over used. Dumpster fire on defense 

LF - Duran - quality bat. Speed. Decent defense. 
CF - rafeala - very young. Cost controlled. Potential to be decent bat. Superior defender 

RF - abreau - cost controlled. Potential to be decent bat. Superior defender 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Where can we truly upgrade our roster???

1B - casas - injured most of 2024. Potential superior power hitter, cost controlled. Defense is a dumpster fire!!!!

2B - Bergman? Or Campbell? - is Bergman at 200mm really that big an upgrade of Campbell???? Campbell very cost controlled. Both should be average defenders. 

SS - story - often injured. Decent defender. Decent hitter????

3B - devers - superior power hitter. Absolute dumpster fire on defense 

C - wong - decent hitter. If not over used. Dumpster fire on defense 

LF - Duran - quality bat. Speed. Decent defense. 
CF - rafeala - very young. Cost controlled. Potential to be decent bat. Superior defender 

RF - abreau - cost controlled. Potential to be decent bat. Superior defender 

You did not mention Anthony for CF and or RF.

I'd say Catcher is the number one positional need, along with balancing the Lefty overload. It's really more about defense at 3 positions (C, 3B, 1B) and offense at one position (CF) with no position lacking in both areas. Maybe Campbell can play 3B, at some point, but that would indirectly squeeze out Yoshida.

At some point, someone will get squeezed, unless all three top prospects flop.

Anthony can easily squeeze Rafaela to a jack-of-all-trades utility man and or  a platoon w Abreu (as Anthony could alternate between CF and RF, depending on who is playing.)

Mayer could play 3B, 2B or squeeze Story to 2B.

Campbell could push DHam and Grissom to utility roles or push Devers to 1B/DH.

It seems like the easiest way to balance the L-R thing is to trade Abreu and sign someone like Grichuk on a 1 year deal, until we know more about the kids.

notin mentioned a Story for Sean Murphy deal that would bring us the RHB we need and a decent catcher, but it would lock us into Mayer at SS with not much depth, unless you think Campbell could do better than Rafaela. I'd rather see Romy sub at SS than DHam or Grissom.

 

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Previously on Bregman hits a dinger: ERod, Doug Fister, Price, Phillips Valdez, Bello. 

That settles it.  Clearly that was because of Fenway…

[moonslav59]

Weakest Areas of 2024 team by fangraphs rankings:

DRS

27th Catcher Defense

24th 3B Defense (26th in OAA) 26th '22-'24 

21st 1B Defense (20th in OAA w Smith, a lot.) 29th '22-'24

OPS

30th 2B .533 (Mostly E Valdez, Grissom and DHam)

Our pen was the worst in the second of 2024.

[moonslav59]

Breslow and all the non answers...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/craig-breslow-discusses-casas-bregman-devers.html

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

It would be a shame if we half punted on Crochets first year and let him walk after his second. It would be (unfortunately) kind of familiarly directionless.

Call it  a pooch kick.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Weakest Areas of 2024 team by fangraphs rankings:

DRS

27th Catcher Defense

24th 3B Defense (26th in OAA) 26th '22-'24 

21st 1B Defense (20th in OAA w Smith, a lot.) 29th '22-'24

OPS

30th 2B .533 (Mostly E Valdez, Grissom and DHam)

Our pen was the worst in the second of 2024.

send this to Breslow. apparently him and the clowns that work for him have no freakin clue about this.

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

send this to Breslow. apparently him and the clowns that work for him have no freakin clue about this.

They know, but they care more about their $313M 3Bman's feelings than building a winner.

[moonslav59]

The Sox are 11th in winter spending...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/each-teams-free-agent-spending-thus-far-2.html

The Mets spent more on their 3rd and 4th highest paid FA signings than we have on our 4 signings, combined.

The Dodgers spent more on their second highest contract than all our 4, together.

The Diamondbacks, Yanks, Rangers, Astros and Angels spent more on one FA than our 4.

The A's and O's have spent more than us.

11th place. That's who we are.

 

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They know, but they care more about their $313M 3Bman's feelings than building a winner.

The Red Sox haven’t been kept out of the postseason the last 3 years, because of Raffy’s D at 3B. The Red Sox are just not concerned about the D as you, and others are, and are just playing the cards they have dealt themselves. Raffy, Casas, and Yoshida. The Red Sox wasn’t concerned under the Bloom, and Cora regime with the likes of Arroyo in RF, and Dr Franchy Strange Glove at 1B, and the Red Sox aren’t that concerned now with Brez, and Cora. Beating a dead horse to death, and keeping droning on, and on about is not going to change a thing. 3 yrs running now. The Red Sox are NOT listening.🤭🙈

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox haven’t been kept out of the postseason the last 3 years, because of Raffy’s D at 3B. The Red Sox are just not concerned about the D as you, and others are, and are just playing the cards they have dealt themselves. Raffy, Casas, and Yoshida. The Red Sox wasn’t concerned under the Bloom, and Cora regime with the likes of Arroyo in RF, and Dr Franchy Strange Glove at 1B, and the Red Sox aren’t that concerned now with Brez, and Cora. Beating a dead horse to death, and keeping droning on, and on about is not going to change a thing. 3 yrs running now. The Red Sox are NOT listening.🤭🙈

Thanks for telling me they aren't listening. I would never have known.

We all complain about what they don't do to fix weak areas. Right now, 3B defense is the talk, since Bregman is the last big man standing.

I'm not posting here for JH, Brez or Cora to "listen."

[moonslav59]

Happy

2025!

[moonslav59]

Here is some happy New Year news...

 

“I’m going to be ready for a full Spring Training and a full season,” Giolito told WEEI’s Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast. “I find it funny when I see stuff online saying that I’ll be coming back in June. I don’t know where that came from. I have no idea. … Everything’s going great. I look forward to a full year.”

Giolito said he is towards the tail end of his rehab process at the team’s complex in Fort Myers. He indicated he expects to progress to throwing off a mound soon. Giolito added that teammate Garrett Whitlock, who underwent the same procedure in late May, is at a similar stage in his own rehab work.

[notin]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox haven’t been kept out of the postseason the last 3 years, because of Raffy’s D at 3B. The Red Sox are just not concerned about the D as you, and others are, and are just playing the cards they have dealt themselves. Raffy, Casas, and Yoshida. The Red Sox wasn’t concerned under the Bloom, and Cora regime with the likes of Arroyo in RF, and Dr Franchy Strange Glove at 1B, and the Red Sox aren’t that concerned now with Brez, and Cora. Beating a dead horse to death, and keeping droning on, and on about is not going to change a thing. 3 yrs running now. The Red Sox are NOT listening.🤭🙈

They weren’t listening when you droned on and on about Sale last year.  Did that stop you?

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, notin said:

They weren’t listening when you droned on and on about Sale last year.  Did that stop you?

Nice try, but Sale was talked about ALL season long, and ALL throughout baseball, and by more than just me on here. It was also something that was actually happening unlike the Red Sox trying to fix the D, so happy to oblige. By the way. Atlanta was sure listening.🤫

[notin]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

Nice try, but Sale was talked about ALL season long, and ALL throughout baseball, and by more than just me on here. It was also something that was actually happening unlike the Red Sox trying to fix the D, so happy to oblige. By the way. Atlanta was sure listening.🤫

First of all, if the concern was the Sox are not listening, what does it matter how many are talking?

Second, if you think the Sox defense has been ignored as a subject, Henry isn’t the only one not listening.  The Sox defense has been a subject of conversation for much longer than the Sale trade.  

Also the Sox are clearly trying to fix the defense.  Rafaela was not extended for his offensive skill set.  The Sox have also reportedly discussed moving Devers off third, something I didn’t think would reach even that phase.

But most important - f*** off on telling people what they can and can’t talk about.  Especially since you clearly don’t follow your own rules.  If the topic is related to the Red Sox and baseball, it’s fair game and doesn’t matter whether or not the Sox will make the move or follow through with it or whatever.

And Atlanta wasn’t listening to you.  That doesn’t even make sense…

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

But most important - f*** off on telling people what they can and can’t talk about.  Especially since you clearly don’t follow your own rules.  If the topic is related to the Red Sox and baseball, it’s fair game and doesn’t matter whether or not the Sox will make the move or follow through with it or whatever.

Let's not be cursing out other posters, please.  Red isn't literally telling anyone what they can talk about or not.  He's basically saying it's a waste of time talking about some things because the team just isn't doing them.  I get that he does it in a needling way, but he's not crossing any lines.  Telling others to eff off does cross the line.  

[Randy Red Sox]

On 12/23/2024 at 11:12 AM, moonslav59 said:

Respectfully, I think you have. We are not going to sign Teoscar and good pen arm... not even Estevez.

Chapman+ Estevez + Wilson is a step down from Jansen & Martin, and the pen was our biggest weakness over the second half of 2024. It was the worst in MLB, and it will be the same or worse, on paper.

Teoscar might be as good as the 2024 O'Neill, but go ahead and call it a plus, and I am far from assuming we add him. The O would be about the same. The D should get better, but that depends on Story and how little Wong catches. Maybe we're even going into the rotation.

I like our rotation depth better than 2024, but it takes a very rosy "perspective" to have hope in Sandoval giving us anything, this year and Buehler doing something he hasn't done in 4 years. How is thinking Buehler will do well, based on a 10 inning stretch, a bad perspective?

Okay...

Crochet>>> Pivetta

Houck=Houck

Bello= Bello

Gio <???> Crawford

Yea!!! We have one plus over 2024! Schedule the parade!

This winter ha ssucked, and adding Teoscar and Estevez might squeek us into the playoffs, but no way should we be viewed as  a serious contender, even with rose-colored glasses on.

 

i actually like our rotation right now.  Crochet is said to be a stud and I think Bello will take another step this year. I am hoping Buehler is finally healthy. He is only 30 and with his TJ's doesn't have a lot of mileage on his wing. I like his upside and it is only a 1 yr deal. Houck should fit as a good #3 and Gio is said to be ready for ST. Crawford gives solid depth both as a starter or in the pen.

Question is going to be the BP which has some good arms but lots of questions too. If everything goes right it could be solid or of course it could be our undoing. The Orioles and Blue Jays have done very little so far this offseason and Tampa not much either. Right now I think the Sox are the 2nd best team in the division.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Happy

2025!

Same to all. I vow to come to this forum this year in the best shape yet (nuts and berries in my daily granola, dried thai peppers in my dinners, tumeric sprinkled on my salads).

I am resolute: no more second-guessing the back office at Fenway Park. No more what-ifs. Just appreciate the Red Sox for what they are. 

The Year of Yoshida. In '25 he comes alive!