A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

On 12/24/2024 at 3:48 PM, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. Tell me what you would give up.

(I might give up what I listed minus Abreu.)

We'd still have Anthony, Campbell, Arias, Perales, Bleis and the Garcia brothers (and Abreu.)

This guy might be as good as Crochet, who cost us 3 of our top 8 prospects.

Casas and Abreu for Jones and one of their catchers…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Casas and Abreu for Jones and one of their catchers…

I think I'd do that, but I really think we need Casas in the 3 or 5 slot of our line-up. He is one of our few lefties that hit LHPs well.

Now, if we added Teoscar to the line-up, I'd be more enthusiastic about this deal.

As much as our SS depth is in doubt, I think I'd rather offer Mayer. Maybe PIT would be okay looking further down the road and take a mix from Arias, Cespedes, Bleis, Romero, Sandlin or the Garcia brothers, along with Rafaela or Abreu.

[Larry Cook]

9 hours ago, notin said:

Casas and Abreu for Jones and one of their catchers…

I think Pittsburgh would be insane to move jones, 

dipito is not willing to dance on any of his four youngsters! 
 

any chance we can see if cease is available???

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Pittsburgh would be insane to move jones, 

dipito is not willing to dance on any of his four youngsters! 
 

any chance we can see if cease is available???

He's got one year of control. 

That's a tiny window.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He's got one year of control. 

That's a tiny window.

And the trade would be very expensive. I don't think they could extend him either. Pass. 

[notin]

12 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I think Pittsburgh would be insane to move jones, 

dipito is not willing to dance on any of his four youngsters! 
 

any chance we can see if cease is available???

Agree, but would they be so crazy as to move Mitch Keller?

[notin]

Personally I think the Sox rotation is likely set, with Crochet, Houck, Giolito, Crawford, Buehler and Bello.  Not to mention Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Fulmer, and Criswell…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Personally I think the Sox rotation is likely set, with Crochet, Houck, Giolito, Crawford, Buehler and Bello.  Not to mention Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Fulmer, and Criswell…

Oh yeah.  We're done with adding starters.

[d-money]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

Personally I think the Sox rotation is likely set, with Crochet, Houck, Giolito, Crawford, Buehler and Bello.  Not to mention Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Fulmer, and Criswell…

I would still like to see them add another starter. You just never know with injuries.  Crochet might be on an innings limit. 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

Agree, but would they be so crazy as to move Mitch Keller?

Sure, they can have Bleis and Winckowski for him. 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, d-money said:

I would still like to see them add another starter. You just never know with injuries.  Crochet might be on an innings limit. 

I think the innings limit would be managed by him just not going long in games down the stretch if they are out of it.

Is a 6 man rotation on the table? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, they can have Bleis and Winckowski for him. 

Throw in DHam and call it a deal.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the innings limit would be managed by him just not going long in games down the stretch if they are out of it.

Is a 6 man rotation on the table? 

The 6 man rotation idea gets floated a lot, but no MLB teams seem to actually want to try it.  Mainly I assume because every 5th day is generally considered optimal for a starter's performance.

And the piggyback idea for 2 starters has been proven to not work, I'd say.

[moonslav59]

We need all the help in the pen we can get. Crawford can eat a lot of innings there and spot start, when needed, thereby prolonging the need to call anyone up

Wink and Whitlock (eventually) can go 2-3 IP, every few days.

IMO, we still need a bonafide closer, badly. Making Hendriks & CHapman the set-up men looks pretty good, on paper. Slaten has the potential to be the third solid set-up man or 7th inning guy. The whole pen and pen depth gets much better, if we add a solid closer.

That being said, I seriously doubt it happens.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 6 man rotation idea gets floated a lot, but no MLB teams seem to actually want to try it.  Mainly I assume because every 5th day is generally considered optimal for a starter's performance.

And the piggyback idea for 2 starters has been proven to not work, I'd say.

I think the reason is simply because it’s harder to get six reliable starters than five.

This is a slight modification of the rationale Earl Weaver used for employing 4 man rotations…

[moonslav59]

According to cots, we are under the tax line by $36M.

Could this work?

Sign: Teoscar Hernandez $76M/4 ($19M AAV) Lower AAV but extra year.

Trade: Rafaela ($6.2 AAV x 7 years,) DHam, Cespedes, Sandlin and Fitts

For: Arenado ($25.5 AAV after COL payments) and Helsley ($6.8 est final arb) + $10M x 3 years ($30M)

We come in $1M under the tax line.

1. Duran CF

2. Teoscar LF

3. Casas DH/1B

4. Devers 1B/DH

5. Arenado 3B

6. Abreu RF (Anthony, eventually)

7. Story SS

8. Campbell 2B

9. Wong-Narvaez C

Bench: Narvaez, Grissom, Refsnyder, Yoshida (Romy, Anthony, Mayer)

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito (Crawford)

RP: Helsley, Chapman, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Wilson (Guerrero)

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The 6 man rotation idea gets floated a lot, but no MLB teams seem to actually want to try it.  Mainly I assume because every 5th day is generally considered optimal for a starter's performance.

And the piggyback idea for 2 starters has been proven to not work, I'd say.

Some teams have tried it intermittently. I've seen the idea thrown out a lot more by other teams this offseason (Dodgers, Marlins, Orioles). 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

According to cots, we are under the tax line by $36M.

Could this work?

No, you have too many pitchers listed.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, you have too many pitchers listed.

13 is too many? (The ones in parenthesis are in AAA . I listed Crawford as the 6th starter and in the pen.)

Do you think the STL offer was fair?

[mvp 78]

 

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Where’s the love for Masa? The Globe reported the Sox were in discussions with Seattle for Castillo for Casas, but the Red Sox would not do straight up, and wanted to include Masa. It didn’t work out, so Boston turned to Chicago for Crochet.

[moonslav59]

Sox sign Noah Davis to minors

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Where’s the love for Masa? The Globe reported the Sox were in discussions with Seattle for Castillo for Casas, but the Red Sox would not do straight up, and wanted to include Masa. It didn’t work out, so Boston turned to Chicago for Crochet.

I wonder, if that deal offer is true, how much money we offered to offset Yoshi. I'm thinking maybe we need to offer $12-14M x 3 to get close to a yes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I wonder, if that deal offer is true, how much money we offered to offset Yoshi. I'm thinking maybe we need to offer $12-14M x 3 to get close to a yes.

Can we expand it, to include catching prospect Harry Ford?

Ford, who could become a core guy for a rebuilding team, is blocked in Seattle for at least the next three years (M's WAR leader Cal Raleigh is not a free agent until 2028).

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Can we expand it, to include catching prospect Harry Ford?

Ford, who could become a core guy for a rebuilding team, is blocked in Seattle for at least the next three years (M's WAR leader Cal Raleigh is not a free agent until 2028).

Not sure what we'd have to add. 

I think I heard they want to start playing Raleigh less and less at catcher.

[moonslav59]

Top remaining Free Agents (ranked by MLBTR) with my estimated cost

2. Burnes $240M/8- Mayber?

3. Bregman $200M/8- Maybe?

7. Alonso $130M/5

8. Flaherty $120M/5- maybe?

9. Santander $95M/5

14. Scott $70M/5- YES

 

*18. Hoffman $50M/4- YES

*22. Estevez $30M/3- yes

*28. Pivetta $63M/3 (MLBR has $21M/1) doubtful

16. Profar $50M/3

25. Heaney $25M/2

26. H Kim $25M/3

31. Quintana $22M/2

33. Scherzer $17M/1, 41. Gibson $14M/1, 45. Verlander $13M/1, 48. Ogasawara $13M/2

34. Minter $18M/2, 38. Yates $15M/1, 40. Kittredge $15M/2, Kahnle $14M/2, Robertson $12M/1

43. H-S Kim $12M/1

49. H Bader $9M/1, 50. Turnbull $8/1M

NR:

Morton $8M/1, Kershaw $7M/1. T Williams $7M/1, L Lynn $6M/1, Junis $5M/1

Jansen $10M/1, Martin $12M/2, Sewald $7M/1, Leclerc $10M/2

Grichuck $16M/2, J Turner & JD Martinez $7M/1

 

[Larry Cook]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Top remaining Free Agents (ranked by MLBTR) with my estimated cost

3. Bregman $200M/8

7. Alonso $130M/5

8. Flaherty $120M/5

9. Santander $95M/5

*28. Pivetta $63M/3 (MLBR has $21M/1)

14. Scott $70M/5

16. Profar $50M/3

18. Hoffman $50M/4

22. Estevez $30M/3

25. Heaney $25M/2

26. H Kim $25M/3

31. Quintana $22M/2

33. Scherzer $17M/1, 41. Gibson $14M/1, 45. Verlander $13M/1, 48. Ogasawara $13M/2

34. Minter $18M/2, 38. Yates $15M/1, 40. Kittredge $15M/2, Kahnle $14M/2, Robertson $12M/1

43. H-S Kim $12M/1

49. H Bader $9M/1, 50. Turnbull $8/1M

NR:

Morton $8M/1, Kershaw $7M/1. T Williams $7M/1, L Lynn $6M/1, Junis $5M/1

Jansen $10M/1, Martin $12M/2, Sewald $7M/1, Leclerc $10M/2

Grichuck $16M/2, J Turner & JD Martinez $7M/1

 

4 years for Hoffman???

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

4 years for Hoffman???

MLBTR has $44M/4

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

2023 splits:
Bases empty .874 Men on .676

2024 splits:
Bases empty .640 Men on .940

Looks like one of those regression/correction things we all love so much.

[redsoxrules]

How did they not sigh Burns? I thought he would get 250M and all it took is 210. I say all because the market has been crazy. I just don't understand this FO