A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

.795 OPS over the last 4 and 5 years. He would add some RHB help, but not enough. His plus O and plus-plus D at 3B is what fulfils his true value.

We have a weakness at 3B. Don't overthink it.

A weakness at 3B? We have a perennial all-star at 3b who received MVP votes 5 of the last 6 years.

We've had nothing at 2b for multiple years running, and Story is an injury risk.  There will be room for Campbell and Anthony to win jobs even with Bregman. Where they line up to start the year, Im not married to.

Devers is projected 3.8 WAR next year, followed by Duran at 3.7. Then a huge drop off.  Thats pretty weak.

Bregman is a good bet for 4+. Hes been over 4 each of the last 3 years despite a slow start last year.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

"good" at 2b? Im sure.

DHam was better than "good at 2B" and hit .729 v RHP.

We have Campbell.

We don't need a 2Bman, finally.

If we sign Bregman to play 2B, I'm jumping on the fire Brez & Cora bandwagon, day one. (That is NOT hyperbole. That choice breaks the  camel's back.)

[notin]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I would have assumed that a former pitcher like Breslow would be more likely to focus on Catcher, but that hasn't been the case. He just collects depth third catcher types. 

He did acquire Danny Jansen, but then let him walk away.  Jansen was perfect for this team.  (Unless he was an incorrigible a-hole or something, and Breslow decided to cut bait.)

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

A weakness at 3B? We have a perennial all-star at 3b who received MVP votes 5 of the last 6 years.

We've had nothing at 2b for multiple years running, and Story is an injury risk.  There will be room for Campbell and Anthony to win jobs even with Bregman. Where they line up to start the year, Im not married to.

Devers is projected 3.8 WAR next year, followed by Duran at 3.7. Then a huge drop off.  Thats pretty weak.

Bregman is a good bet for 4+. Hes been over 4 each of the last 3 years despite a slow start last year.

You know I'm talking about 3B defense. I'm not signing Bregman to bench Devers. His bat stays.

Nobody is saying we bench or trade Devers.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

He did acquire Danny Jansen, but then let him walk away.  Jansen was perfect for this team.  (Unless he was an incorrigible a-hole or something, and Breslow decided to cut bait.)

It's hard to imagine JH saying no to a Jansen contract. These are the types of things that puzzle me.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DHam was better than "good at 2B" and hit .729 v RHP.

We have Campbell.

We don't need a 2Bman, finally.

If we sign Bregman to play 2B, I'm jumping on the fire Brez & Cora bandwagon, day one. (That is NOT hyperbole. That choice breaks the  camel's back.)

Settling for .729 is how you stay mid.  We have two good hitters on this team, Bregman would be a third. Fit him in however you wish, but there is certainly room. Unless you think this team is good as is.

[drewski6]

Bregmans value extends well beyond upgrading 3b defense. Hed prob lead the team in OPS next year.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

A weakness at 3B? We have a perennial all-star at 3b who received MVP votes 5 of the last 6 years.

We've had nothing at 2b for multiple years running, and Story is an injury risk.  There will be room for Campbell and Anthony to win jobs even with Bregman. Where they line up to start the year, Im not married to.

Devers is projected 3.8 WAR next year, followed by Duran at 3.7. Then a huge drop off.  Thats pretty weak.

Bregman is a good bet for 4+. Hes been over 4 each of the last 3 years despite a slow start last year.

 Devers is an All Star, but solely because of his bat.  He is among the worst defensive 3b in MLB using multiple metrics.

Bregman is a gifted defensive 3b who probably is NOT a 4 fWAR second baseman.  If the Sox sign him, move him to 3b, Devers to 1b, Casas (who fares similar to Devers on many defensive metrics) to DH, and Yoshida to Polar Park…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman is a good bet for 4+. Hes been over 4 each of the last 3 years despite a slow start last year.

You act like the first half of 2024 is the outlier. It's not. 

You don't hit .795 over the last 4-5 years and think he is really the batter he was over the second half of the most recent season. There is no reason to think he'll be better over a full season in 2025.

2023: .726 first half/ .901 second half

2022: .764/.894

He's a streaky hitter, who has had reverse splits over the 2023 and 2024 season. He may not be the savior we need vs LHPs, either.

2023: .696 v L and .712 in 2024.

He's a damn good defensive 3Bman who hits well, but not great.

He may be a good defensive 2Bman, but we already have that role filled.

Who is overthinking this?

We need to improve 3B D. We need a good to great RHB. We don't need a good RHB to play 2B.

 

[drewski6]

Just now, notin said:

 Devers is an All Star, but solely because of his bat.  He is among the worst defensive 3b in MLB using multiple metrics.

Bregman is a gifted defensive 3b who probably is NOT a 4 fWAR second baseman.  If the Sox sign him, move him to 3b, Devers to 1b, Casas (who fares similar to Devers on many defensive metrics) to DH, and Yoshida to Polar Park…

And if they are not going to move Devers off 3b immediately, they should still sign Bregman because Story could get hurt again, Devers could get hurt, Casas could get hurt, Yoshida could suck, Campbell could need more time, Grissom could stink....And its not going to be a 1 yr deal. Of course, Bregman would find his way to 3b.

We dont need Bregman as our opening day 3b for him to be nice to have. Things change.

Bregman adds a lot to this team.  ANd he prob would be a 4fwar 2b. He would be above average defensively and hed mash at fenway. Of course, his fwar would be better at 3b and I prefer him at 3b, and thats where i think he'll ultimately end up.  I just think hes still worth signing, even if he plays 2b during April.

How we end next year is very unlikely to be the same exact player at the same exact position as we started the year.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Settling for .729 is how you stay mid.  We have two good hitters on this team, Bregman would be a third. Fit him in however you wish, but there is certainly room. Unless you think this team is good as is.

Is the upgrade to Bergman’s .768 worth $200mill?

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

You act like the first half of 2024 is the outlier. It's not. 

You don't hit .795 over the last 4-5 years and think he is really the batter he was over the second half of the most recent season. There is no reason to think he'll be better over a full season in 2025.

2023: .726 first half/ .901 second half

2022: .764/.894

He's a streaky hitter, who has had reverse splits over the 2023 and 2024 season. He may not be the savior we need vs LHPs, either.

2023: .696 v L and .712 in 2024.

He's a damn good defensive 3Bman who hits well, but not great.

He may be a good defensive 2Bman, but we already have that role filled.

Who is overthinking this?

We need to improve 3B D. We need a good to great RHB. We don't need a good RHB to play 2B.

 

We need to improve the lineup as a whole.  Are you trying to just be competent this year or actually compete?

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Settling for .729 is how you stay mid.  We have two good hitters on this team, Bregman would be a third. Fit him in however you wish, but there is certainly room. Unless you think this team is good as is.

.729 might be what Breg hits over the next 6 years.

DHam brings more than just .729. He is, IMO, a better defensive 2Bman than Breg and steals mega bases. My real confidence lies with Campbell, who am certain will outhit Breg in the next 6 years and is likely a better defensive 2Bman, too.

If Mayer wins the SS job, we'll have a RH'd GG 2Bman, as well, in Story.

We don't need a 2Bman who may or may not improve the 2B offense.

[Larry Cook]

For 2025, theoretically, we could have

1.) casas and story healthy!!! 
2.) rafeala playing centerfield and not ping ponging back and forth.
3.) rafeala experienced and past the first four woeful months of 2024! 
4.) abreau experienced now! 
5.) Campbell could win the 2B job! 
 

in theory, these changes plus the rotation additions and the additional pitching depth has to equate to more wins in 2025! 
 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

How we end next year is very unlikely to be the same exact player at the same exact position as we started the year.

Who is saying don't sign Bregman or anyone else?

We've all been suggesting ways to upgrade our actual weaker areas, now ones where we are better than others or have great hopes in a ML ready prospect to step in, if the DHam-Grissom 2B platoon implodes.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who is saying don't sign Bregman or anyone else?

We've all been suggesting ways to upgrade our actual weaker areas, now ones where we are better than others or have great hopes in a ML ready prospect to step in, if the DHam-Grissom 2B platoon implodes.

I agree, its about stockpiling options and hoarding. Simply not worth it from a cost-benefit perspective to start jettisoning guys off so guys who would be an option to fill a hole become "must fill that hole"

Thats my only point. Bregman would be an option at 3b, 2b, 1b, even OF and he'd be a decent bet to lead the team in OPS. It makes sense, not sure its going to happen.  But if he goes to Detroit, its hard to see this team making a serious playoff push.

[drewski6]

I dont think the prospects are going to immediately take the MLB world by storm.  And I dont think Bregman blocks em.  We have question marks at 5 positions.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

And if they are not going to move Devers off 3b immediately, they should still sign Bregman because Story could get hurt again, Devers could get hurt, Casas could get hurt, Yoshida could suck, Campbell could need more time, Grissom could stink....And its not going to be a 1 yr deal. Of course, Bregman would find his way to 3b.

We dont need Bregman as our opening day 3b for him to be nice to have. Things change.

Bregman adds a lot to this team.  ANd he prob would be a 4fwar 2b. He would be above average defensively and hed mash at fenway. Of course, his fwar would be better at 3b and I prefer him at 3b, and thats where i think he'll ultimately end up.  I just think hes still worth signing, even if he plays 2b during April.

How we end next year is very unlikely to be the same exact player at the same exact position as we started the year.

Bregman is morphing into an above average hitter with topflight defensive skills.  Adding him to get his bat in the lineup and hoping defense works out is misguided.

Randal Grichuk drew ire on this forum, but his .875 OPS was better than Bergman’s, and also was carried by his season against LHP.

Bregman is a good overall player.  But he’s not the elite hitter he used to be, and he’s very unlikely to be that hitter again…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

We need to improve the lineup as a whole.  Are you trying to just be competent this year or actually compete?

So, of all the FAs signed and unsigned, you think signing Bregman to $25M-$28M  a year for 5-6 years to keep our 2B defense maybe the same and bat .795 year one and maybe less, every year afterwards is the solution?

We might get .730-.770 from a DHam-Grissom platoon, or much better from Campbell. The D at 3B, 1B and C will still suck. The offense may get slightly better for a year, maybe two. Bregman would provide the option to move him to 3B in a year or two, about the time his defense starts declining.

I'd rather sign Santander to less money, then trade Abreu for a catcher and RP'er. He's a better bat, and we'd fix 2-3 needs, not barely one.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, its about stockpiling options and hoarding. Simply not worth it from a cost-benefit perspective to start jettisoning guys off so guys who would be an option to fill a hole become "must fill that hole"

Thats my only point. Bregman would be an option at 3b, 2b, 1b and he'd be a decent bet to lead the team in OPS. It makes sense, not sure its going to happen.  But if he goes to Detroit, its hard to see this team making a serious playoff push.

Bregman won’t lead the Sox in OPS.  He’d be an overpriced Connor Wong with the bat…

[a700hitter]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela may be better than Arenado going forward. A lot of the proposed moves are just changes for the sake of making changes and not really improving the team. 

The players who would have improved the team are already signed.  At this point, Arenado or Bregman would not improve the team very much.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

So, of all the FAs signed and unsigned, you think signing Bregman to $25M-$28M  a year for 5-6 years to keep our 2B defense maybe the same and bat .795 year one and maybe less, every year afterwards is the solution?

We might get .730-.770 from a DHam-Grissom platoon, or much better from Campbell. The D at 3B, 1B and C will still suck. The offense may get slightly better for a year, maybe two. Bregman would provide the option to move him to 3B in a year or two, about the time his defense starts declining.

I'd rather sign Santander to less money, then trade Abreu for a catcher and RP'er. He's a better bat, and we'd fix 2-3 needs, not barely one.

I dont think Bregman plays 2b for 5-6 years.  I think next year, with his position versatility, combined with other guys positional versatility, it will be easy to get him in the lineup everyday at a position where he would be at least above average,  Your DHAM/Griss platoon could easily become SS if Story gets hurt. Campbell may play OF. Maybe you get your wish and Devers moves to 1b and Breg slides into 3b.

Im not sure how the team will look by June. But I want more options and Breg is a fine option. Not sure what Tigers are offering and of course i have my walk point. I think hes much better option than Arrenado, and I dont think our offense is good enough as is.

Im surprised we didnt get TH, personally. But pickens are getting slimmer and I think we need to upgrade the lineup.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I agree, its about stockpiling options and hoarding. Simply not worth it from a cost-benefit perspective to start jettisoning guys off so guys who would be an option to fill a hole become "must fill that hole"

Thats my only point. Bregman would be an option at 3b, 2b, 1b, even OF and he'd be a decent bet to lead the team in OPS. It makes sense, not sure its going to happen.  But if he goes to Detroit, its hard to see this team making a serious playoff push.

I'm not getting the faith in his offense. He is not the guy from 2017-2019. He's gone 5 years showing he is a good to very good hitter, but not great, anymore.

Maybe Fenway would be good to him, like it is to many lefties, but it's not like HOU is a pitcher's park. He'll be 31 on opening day.  He has a very nice 122 OPS+ over the last 4-5 years and a 118 OPS+ in 2024. That is an improvement over our 2Bman, for sure, but was 2B our biggest need area? Our second biggest? 3rd? 4th? 5th? 6th? (I'd say no to all and beyond.)

Just because he is the best FA remaining, doesn't mean we should choose him to be our overpay.

I'm barely on board with signing him as our 3Bman. Barely. In a sense, we'd be paying him his salary plus the benched Yoshida's salary to make room for him. That is also reason enough to say no, but at least he'd improve our offesne (Bregman > Yoshida) and 3B Defense (Bregman >>>>>>Devers) and maybe 1B deense (Devers ??>>?? Casas). The DH 1B share by Devers and Casas may keep both healthier, fresher and maybe needing less full days off for rest. It would be 2-3 pluses, not one.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Bregman won’t lead the Sox in OPS.  He’d be an overpriced Connor Wong with the bat…

Bregman has a career 1.25 career OPS at Fenway, and hit .833 second half last year despite a .255 BABIP.

Connor Wong, he would not be.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not getting the faith in his offense. He is not the guy from 2017-2019. He's gone 5 years showing he is a good to very good hitter, but not great, anymore.

Maybe Fenway would be good to him, like it is to many lefties, but it's not like HOU is a pitcher's park. He'll be 31 on opening day.  He has a very nice 122 OPS+ over the last 4-5 years and a 118 OPS+ in 2024. That is an improvement over our 2Bman, for sure, but was 2B our biggest need area? Our second biggest? 3rd? 4th? 5th? 6th? (I'd say no to all and beyond.)

Just because he is the best FA remaining, doesn't mean we should choose him to be our overpay.

I'm barely on board with signing him as our 3Bman. Barely. In a sense, we'd be paying him his salary plus the benched Yoshida's salary to make room for him. That is also reason enough to say no, but at least he'd improve our offesne (Bregman > Yoshida) and 3B Defense (Bregman >>>>>>Devers) and maybe 1B deense (Devers ??>>?? Casas). The DH 1B share by Devers and Casas may keep both healthier, fresher and maybe needing less full days off for rest. It would be 2-3 pluses, not one.

I think he makes us better. I think hed play some 2b, some 3b, some 1b , some dh , and maybe even some of.  I dont think we need to make these decisions right now, and I think where he starts the season isnt necessarily where he'll stay. I think hes no longer a great hitter, but still a good one who is a great fit for Fenway where he has one of the highest OPS in that park among active hitters.

I think all free agents are overpays, and if hes a normal FA overpay (as opposed to a huge overpay) , hes worth it. I think he'll make us better, even if Im not sure exactly how at this moment. Because im not sure how campbell is going to do, how cedanne is going to do, if story is going to stay healthy, if yoshida is going to hit. But I think that maybe cedanne struggles, campbell plays of.  maybe story gets hurt and dham plays ss.  Maybe yoshida is absolutely awful, and you get your devers to 1b, casas to dh. I like the insurance bregman provides , and i think hes a good bet to hit well at fenway where hes always mashed.  Hes past his prime but hes not washed up by any means.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Bregman won’t lead the Sox in OPS.  He’d be an overpriced Connor Wong with the bat…

I'm not sure why he'd even be in the running for 3rd or 4th place on the Sox in OPS or OPS+.

2024 OPS+ 139 Devers (at age 27) , 129 Duran (27) , 129 Refsnyder, 120 Casas (age 24), 114 Abreu (at age 25) Bregman was at 122  at age 30

2023-2024 OPS

.860 Devers

.838 Casas

.832 Duran

.794 Abreu

,787 BREGMAN

.775 Yoshida

 

 

 

[notin]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregman has a career 1.25 career OPS at Fenway, and hit .833 second half last year despite a .255 BABIP.

Connor Wong, he would not be.

98 plate appearances spread across 8 seasons.  It’s more coincidence at that point.

He beat the tar  out of the Sox in Boston last year.  But was it because of Fenway?  Or because he was hitting against Brad Keller and Brennan Bernardino? (Names not chosen randomly; Bregman homered off both of them.)

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Bregmans value extends well beyond upgrading 3b defense. Hed prob lead the team in OPS next year.

If Bregman was on the Sox in prior years:

2024: 6th in OPS

2023: 5th in OPS

2022: 3rd in OPS

2021: 7th in OPS (tied with Verdugo)

2020: 6th in OPS (tied with Vazquez)

2019: 1st in OPS (buzzer year)

2018: 3rd in OPS

2017: 1st in OPS (trash can year)

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

Is the upgrade to Bergman’s .768 worth $200mill?

He was OPSing 714 on 8/3 and then hit 896 the rest of the way. Not sure what was going on with him last year, but I don't believe he was working his way back from an injury. He's... Just... Getting... Old...

Expecting OPS above 800 for him going forward would be foolish even with half of his games at Fenway IMO. HOU was already tailor made for his swing. It's not like he's going to see a magical bounce from a shorter porch. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont think Bregman plays 2b for 5-6 years.  I think next year, with his position versatility, combined with other guys positional versatility, it will be easy to get him in the lineup everyday at a position where he would be at least above average,  Your DHAM/Griss platoon could easily become SS if Story gets hurt. Campbell may play OF. Maybe you get your wish and Devers moves to 1b and Breg slides into 3b.

Im not sure how the team will look by June. But I want more options and Breg is a fine option. Not sure what Tigers are offering and of course i have my walk point. I think hes much better option than Arrenado, and I dont think our offense is good enough as is.

Im surprised we didnt get TH, personally. But pickens are getting slimmer and I think we need to upgrade the lineup.

If Grissom gets run at SS, I'm asking for a refund on the season even if they are punting.