A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas under 810?

Story at 1 fWAR? 

Devers at 849? (Hasn't been that low for a full season since 2018)

Duran at 3 fWAR if he plays 150 games? 

Abreu under 750 OPS? (MLB career low projection?)

I'm smashing the over on all of those. Those projections are light AF.

Can Story Land stay open,, and can Casas get off to a good start, and stay healthy?

[mvp 78]

Just now, Old Red said:

Can Story Land stay open,, and can Casas get off to a good start, and stay healthy?

Story can get over 1 fWAR. I have him getting to 4, but in this scenario I just need to be a bit over 1. 

Even if Casas isn't crushing it from day one, if he replicates 2023, he'll be WAY over 810 OPS. 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm optimistic about Story too, because I'm a Red Sox fan, but it's not going to be the biggest shock if he's cooked as a hitter, either.

[notin]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I understand.  But I'm not ruling out they may be onto something.

This is a team that OPSed .736 in August and a grotesque .654 in September.  This is an offense that was downright putrid for the last 2 months of 2024.  An offense that turned into a bunch of wind turbines.

And they did nothing about it.  Hopes rest on the kids.

Is a .736 team OPS really “putrid”? League average was .711…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm optimistic about Story too, because I'm a Red Sox fan, but it's not going to be the biggest shock if he's cooked as a hitter, either.

Trade Story (plus cash) to Atlanta for Sean Murphy.

Orlando Arcia is the Connor Wong of shortstops and the Braves have nothing above A ball at the position.  They do have a top prospect catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin who’s ready to step in.  Story is owed some $69mill over 3 years, slightly more than the $60mill Murphy is owed over the next four.

Deal makes a ton of sense for both sides once an agreement can be reached on the money…

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Is a .736 team OPS really “putrid”? League average was .711…

True, August was more like mediocre - OPS+ of 98.  Seems like the wheels started falling off about mid-August.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Is a .736 team OPS really “putrid”? League average was .711…

He was looking at the Canadian conversion rate for 736 OPS. Thought it was only 510 US OPS. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Trade Story (plus cash) to Atlanta for Sean Murphy.

Orlando Arcia is the Connor Wong of shortstops and the Braves have nothing above A ball at the position.  They do have a top prospect catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin who’s ready to step in.  Story is owed some $69mill over 3 years, slightly more than the $60mill Murphy is owed over the next four.

Deal makes a ton of sense for both sides once an agreement can be reached on the money…

I believe you've mentioned this before. Trade makes sense. I don't know what their long term plan is at Catcher. Maybe Breslow just doesn't believe he needs to focus there? 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I believe you've mentioned this before. Trade makes sense. I don't know what their long term plan is at Catcher. Maybe Breslow just doesn't believe he needs to focus there? 

Or maybe we're just not the brightest bulbs on the tree.

[drewski6]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Story can get over 1 fWAR. I have him getting to 4, but in this scenario I just need to be a bit over 1. 

Even if Casas isn't crushing it from day one, if he replicates 2023, he'll be WAY over 810 OPS. 

They seem light, but I do feel that one middle of the order bat , preferably from the right side, is needed. I really thought we were getting TH, and Im just kind of surprised how/why they got to me to buy in that they were making a full effort this year. Not to imply that we cant be better than expected, but it feels (to reuse a phrase I used earlier in the week) familiarly directionless.

Im with Moon, in or out. Dont like half and half. Be cyclical.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Or maybe we're just not the brightest bulbs on the tree.

Or the brightest candle on the menorah, if you will

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Or maybe we're just not the brightest bulbs on the tree.

Well I didn't go to an Ivy like some people.

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well I didn't go to an Ivy like some people.

You mean , youre not Ryan Lavarnway?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well I didn't go to an Ivy like some people.

It's ok, man. There's more honor being a dirt dawg than a Yale Boodog.

[notin]

22 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Or the brightest candle on the menorah, if you will

I like to think I’m the sharpest lightbulb in the drawer…

[notin]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's ok, man. There's more honor being a dirt dawg than a Yale Boodog.

Unless your circle is full of teenagers that own convertible BMW’s and whose names end with “III” or “IV”…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Unless your circle is full of teenagers that own convertible BMW’s and whose names end with “III” or “IV”…

They just don't get us. I was at a loud bar in Rome, ordering a couple beers. Gave the bartender a peace sign, and he filled five glasses. I crossed my arms and yelled, "No!" He filled five more.

[drewski6]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

Is a .736 team OPS really “putrid”? League average was .711…

Its not good enough

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

You mean , youre not Ryan Lavarnway?

No, but I am the Real Deal.

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's ok, man. There's more honor being a dirt dawg than a Yale Boodog.

Trot Nixon is GOATed. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They just don't get us. I was at a loud bar in Rome, ordering a couple beers. Gave the bartender a peace sign, and he filled five glasses. I crossed my arms and yelled, "No!" He filled five more.

Hope you were thirsty. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Its not good enough

It would have been a top 10 offense last year. 

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It would have been a top 10 offense last year. 

The offense was very good in the first half of August.  The crater opened in mid-August.

First 14 games of August - 85 runs

Second 14 games - 49 runs

September 26 games - 94 runs

Last 40 games - 143 runs = 3.58 per game. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The offense was very good in the first half of August.  The crater opened in mid-August.

First 14 games of August - 85 runs

Second 14 games - 49 runs

September 26 games - 94 runs

Last 40 games - 143 runs = 3.58 per game. 

It cratered when O'Neill came off the IL and returned to the lineup? Interesting!

[Bellhorn04]

This is a team that played .420 ball after the ASB last year, folks.  

The offseason rejuvenates our optimism because we're fans.

Something like the golf offseason makes me forget my crappier shots and think I'm going to play better next year somehow.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It cratered when O'Neill came off the IL and returned to the lineup? Interesting!

OK, I get your point, O'Neill did most of his good work earlier in the season too.  That in itself does not mean subtracting him will make us a better offense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The offense was very good in the first half of August.  The crater opened in mid-August.

First 14 games of August - 85 runs

Second 14 games - 49 runs

September 26 games - 94 runs

Last 40 games - 143 runs = 3.58 per game. 

That may have had something to do with the Big Guy.

Devers in August/September: 42 games, .205 batting average, 4 HRs (none in Sept), 14 RBI (3 in Sept).

It underscores how important it is to get quality protection for him in the batting order -- even just someone else streaky enough to carry a club for a spell so that Raffy won't further hurt himself swinging from the heels at every pitch. 

[Bellhorn04]

But hey, what does FanGraphs know?  It's not like they're just using totally objective data and formulas or anything like that.  

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That may have had something to do with the Big Guy.

Devers in August/September: 42 games, .205 batting average, 4 HRs (none in Sept), 14 RBI (3 in Sept).

It underscores how important it is to get quality protection for him in the batting order -- even just someone else streaky enough to carry a club for a spell so that Raffy won't further hurt himself swinging from the heels at every pitch. 

He needs protection AND health. Not sure how to maintain the second part. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But hey, what does FanGraphs know?  It's not like they're just using totally objective data and formulas or anything like that.  

They know how clickbaity their projections are! How else are they going to get that ad revenue up? Now that they've soft locked a lot more articles, what else are people going there for?