A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

sorta the same, but i'd pour over and dissect the box score in the paper the next day. my brother had a paper route, so i'd have access to the papers before all of my neighbors. the good ol' days. LOL.

I was a box score nut, too.

That was such a fun team to watch. Kids (Lynn, Rice, Evans, the gutsy Burly and Cooper, all under 25) and vets (Yaz, Rico, Fisk, Carbo & Doyle,) Tiant & Lee. 

While Wise, Cleveland, Pole, Moret, Drago and Burton did okay. We basically made it that far on 2 arms: Tiant & Lee- both with 260 IP. (Wise had 255.) We used only 12 pitchers in 1975 and only 10 with more than 7 IP (all over 48.)

Tiant, Lee and Wise pitched an astounding 54% of all the team's IP in '75.

[Thunder]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

sorta the same, but i'd pour over and dissect the box score in the paper the next day. my brother had a paper route, so i'd have access to the papers before all of my neighbors. the good ol' days. LOL.

What is a newspaper??? Lol I kid of course.

 

I'm about to make all of you feel old, but most of you already know how young I am. I turned 26 in October. I was in kindergarten in the fall of 2004. I remember talking about some of the games in school, but not watching them. The first postseason run I remember watching was 2007, and the first season I really remember watching from start to finish was 2008. 

 

The funny thing is, I can't really recall any particular player or season making me fall in love with the Red Sox. I know I felt like a part of my childhood ended when Ortiz retired, but I never idolized him to the extent that I know some other kids my age must have. Unfortunately, I probably took his career for granted. I will always remember watching Game 2 of the 2013 ALCS, though.

 

A year into living in Pittsburgh, it's been comforting seeing how my love for the Red Sox has still persisted. When I bought Pirates season tickets last winter, I was afraid my heart didn't have room for two teams. But then I fell in love with Rafaela and Duran. I really hope we keep both of them around for the foreseeable future while we build this thing into a contender again. I also experience quite the emotional and nostalgic high whenever I travel to see the Red Sox in neighboring cities. Last year, I got to go to Baltimore and Cincinnati. This year, I intend to go to Cleveland and Washington, and perhaps Baltimore again. I didn't miss those summer nights at Fenway as much as I thought I would, but that doesn't mean I don't yearn for the day when I can go back.

[Tedballgame]

On 12/28/2024 at 11:04 AM, a700hitter said:

Another miss by the FO.  Their soccer club will be very good.

How did they not sign Burnes? Well....

1. He lives in Scottsdale, AZ

2. He is married and has 3 little kids.

3. The Diamondbacks play 14 minutes from his house.

4 The Diamondbacks spring training facility is in Scottsdale, AZ

5. They gave him $210 Million to pitch in his hometown and he can sleep in his own bed and his kids can go to every home game and spring training.

6. The Diamondbacks are better now than the Red Sox.

 

Now, do you want to ask again how the Red Sox didn't sign Burnes? They had no chance unless, maybe they gave him crazy money like 8/350m

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Tedballgame said:

How did they not sign Burnes? Well....

1. He lives in Scottsdale, AZ

2. He is married and has 3 little kids.

3. The Diamondbacks play 14 minutes from his house.

4 The Diamondbacks spring training facility is in Scottsdale, AZ

5. They gave him $210 Million to pitch in his hometown and he can sleep in his own bed and his kids can go to every home game and spring training.

6. The Diamondbacks are better now than the Red Sox.

 

Now, do you want to ask again how the Red Sox didn't sign Burnes? They had no chance unless, maybe they gave him crazy money like 8/350m

I think we all know why he didn't sign w BOS, and this one is not about JH's stinginess.

 

[moonslav59]

It turns out there is an option on the Buehler deal. That makes it better, to me, although it's a "mutual option," so if he does great, he'll say no.

$3.05M signing bonus.

$15M contract

$3M buyout on 2026 option of $25M.

So, here is my question: if we want him back, and he says no, we don't pay the $3M, right? That should makes the 2025 contract only $18.05M, if it works out as I suggested it might.

I wish it was a 100% team option.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It turns out there is an option on the Buehler deal. That makes it better, to me, although it's a "mutual option," so if he does great, he'll say no.

$3.05M signing bonus.

$15M contract

$3M buyout on 2026 option of $25M.

So, here is my question: if we want him back, and he says no, we don't pay the $3M, right? That should makes the 2025 contract only $18.05M, if it works out as I suggested it might.

I wish it was a 100% team option.

If the offer had a team option he’s never take it but rather go elsewhere even for a lot less money. 
 

he wants to ball and get paid, good for him.  
 

I just hope he pitches great, and the Sox net a draft pick for him.

That’s very plausible 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If the offer had a team option he’s never take it but rather go elsewhere even for a lot less money. 
 

he wants to ball and get paid, good for him.  
 

I just hope he pitches great, and the Sox net a draft pick for him.

That’s very plausible 

Yes, I can see why he wants his big payday, next winter. Hopefully it works out for him, since that would mean he did great for us.

 

[Larry Cook]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I can see why he wants his big payday, next winter. Hopefully it works out for him, since that would mean he did great for us.

 

Hope is never a good strategy 

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Hope is never a good strategy 

Agreed. We've been watching that strategy fail for a half a decade.

One of our biggest hopes was a return to form by Sale.

I'm tired of hoping. I gave up on expecting, a while ago.

[mvp 78]

On 12/29/2024 at 6:07 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think we all know why he didn't sign w BOS, and this one is not about JH's stinginess.

 

Reports said an ALE team offered more $$$ and he turned it down. Jays? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Reports said an ALE team offered more $$$ and he turned it down. Jays? 

Not sure, and not sure it matters.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reported that Arenado's contract has $74M remaining, of which COL pays $10M and deferred payments brings the actual amount owed to $60M. Forget giving them Yoshida: they want to cut salary.

We could trade Rafaela (owed about $49M/7) and the AAV hit would only be about $18M a year with no money pitched in by STL. That would leave us enough to sign Grichuk and or Estevez. Of course, I's only do this, if we moved Devers to 1B/DH and not play Arenado at 1B.

It creates an issue with Yoshida, but he's an issue, anyway. In theory, we could platoon Yoshida/Ref in LF and Abreu/Grichuk in RF, until Anthony is called up, and alternate Casas and Devers at 1B & DH.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR reported that Arenado's contract has $74M remaining, of which COL pays $10M and deferred payments brings the actual amount owed to $60M. Forget giving them Yoshida: they want to cut salary.

We could trade Rafaela (owed about $49M/7) and the AAV hit would only be about $18M a year with no money pitched in by STL. That would leave us enough to sign Grichuk and or Estevez. Of course, I's only do this, if we moved Devers to 1B/DH and not play Arenado at 1B.

It creates an issue with Yoshida, but he's an issue, anyway. In theory, we could platoon Yoshida/Ref in LF and Abreu/Grichuk in RF, until Anthony is called up, and alternate Casas and Devers at 1B & DH.

Rafaela may be better than Arenado going forward. A lot of the proposed moves are just changes for the sake of making changes and not really improving the team. 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela may be better than Arenado going forward. A lot of the proposed moves are just changes for the sake of making changes and not really improving the team. 

I fully realize Rafaela may be better, going forward, despite your hyper criticism of him (well, mostly his contract), this year, but we have duplicated values in the OF and nobody who can play 3B better than 29 other 3Bmen. My suggested trade also included adding a RHB OF'er like Grichuk.

You gotta give to get. I'd start with an offer of Cespedes & Winckowski, but might go as high as Rafaela, straight up. (BTW, I chose Rafaela not just because of our duplicated OF values, but because he is owed about $49M to Arenado's $60M. The deal would make more financial sense to JH and his bean counters.)

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I fully realize Rafaela may be better, going forward, despite your hyper criticism of him (well, mostly his contract), this year, but we have duplicated values in the OF and nobody who can play 3B better than 29 other 3Bmen. My suggested trade also included adding a RHB OF'er like Grichuk.

You gotta give to get. I'd start with an offer of Cespedes & Winckowski, but might go as high as Rafaela, straight up. (BTW, I chose Rafaela not just because of our duplicated OF values, but because he is owed about $49M to Arenado's $60M. The deal would make more financial sense to JH and his bean counters.)

I'd rather just keep Devers at 3B until they have a better option going forward. I think Devers is the 3B until Casas' ARB years run out or is traded. I think adding a stronger 2b and SS combo will help the IF immensely. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Appreciate the efforts on making a case for Arenado, but I want nothing to do with his contract and aging skills. 

I know he'd improve the defense this year, but he won't be a factor when the window is wide open (except his albatross contract). 

Despite what Sam Kennedy says, for some reason I don't think this is the year we're going all the way.  Maybe because of the odds of young hitters busting out vs. big league pitchers all at once, or the reconstructed elbows in the rotation all throwing pain-free.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd rather just keep Devers at 3B until they have a better option going forward. I think Devers is the 3B until Casas' ARB years run out or is traded. I think adding a stronger 2b and SS combo will help the IF immensely. 

Casas has 4 years left.... UGH!!!!!!!! LEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

The middle IF, once again, will rely on Story's health, but I do think we already have 2B "fixed," defensively.

DHam looked like a plus in 2024 at 2B, and there is no reason to think Campbell will be a minus at 2B. (BTW, Campbell might also be the solution at 3B and not 3B. Maybe he plays 2B v LHPs and 3B vs RHPs.)

I've never thought the Sox would move Devers, as I wish they would. I'm surprised you'd rather keep him there.

Do you think he'd be better at 1B than Casas, who is awful at 1B D? (We could DH Casas or do a 1B/DH share between the two.)

notin mentioned Grissom at 3B or Mayer.

Could we see this?

Vs RHP: Campbell at 3B and DHam at 2B

Vs LHP: Grissom at 3B and Campbell at 2B

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Appreciate the efforts on making a case for Arenado, but I want nothing to do with his contract and aging skills. 

I know he'd improve the defense this year, but he won't be a factor when the window is wide open (except his albatross contract). 

Despite what Sam Kennedy says, for some reason I don't think this is the year we're going all the way.  Maybe because of the odds of young hitters busting out vs. big league pitchers all at once, or the reconstructed elbows in the rotation all throwing pain-free.

I think they'll be better than 2024, but they haven't really invested in the bullpen in a meaningful way. I think the ceiling is limited until guys like Campbell, Anthony and Mayer actually get their feet wet and learn how to be MLBers. They aren't going to all be mashing right out of the box. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they'll be better than 2024, but they haven't really invested in the bullpen in a meaningful way. I think the ceiling is limited until guys like Campbell, Anthony and Mayer actually get their feet wet and learn how to be MLBers. They aren't going to all be mashing right out of the box. 

I don't disagree.  But man, they just made a blockbuster trade of prospect capital to get Crochet, and they only have him for 2 years guaranteed.  

They're still not making a lot of sense.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't disagree.  But man, they just made a blockbuster trade of prospect capital to get Crochet, and they only have him for 2 years guaranteed.  

They're still not making a lot of sense.

I agree. I think they get an extension for Crochet done and that the Sox aren't a "complete package" until 2026. I know people don't want to hear that. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree. I think they get an extension for Crochet done and that the Sox aren't a "complete package" until 2026. I know people don't want to hear that. 

And I'd feel okay about this except I'm not really bursting with optimism about that extension for Crochet.  I don't doubt they make him an offer but I do doubt their ability to get it done.  

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree. I think they get an extension for Crochet done and that the Sox aren't a "complete package" until 2026. I know people don't want to hear that. 

Yes let’s just waste another year waiting for the over hyped Suspects to lead us to the promise land. No I don’t think MOST fans are looking ahead to 2026 when 2025 hasn’t even started yet, and don’t want to hear that.

[Duran Is The Man]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I'd feel okay about this except I'm not really bursting with optimism about that extension for Crochet.  I don't doubt they make him an offer but I do doubt their ability to get it done.  

Henry will offer him $5,000, a 1984 Buick Lesabre, a rick of seasoned firewood and a couple Sonic coupons. then Brez will tell us how they made a legitimate offer before he signs with the Dodgers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I'd feel okay about this except I'm not really bursting with optimism about that extension for Crochet.  I don't doubt they make him an offer but I do doubt their ability to get it done.  

Ability to pay market prices? We know they have the ability to be obstinate about the market. 

When the front office raises one finger to fans, it's not saying We're Number One!

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I don't disagree.  But man, they just made a blockbuster trade of prospect capital to get Crochet, and they only have him for 2 years guaranteed.  

They're still not making a lot of sense.

That's how I see it. The trade made the window NOW!

Of course, we may extend him, and maybe they already have an extension worked out, but for now, the window may not be better in 1 or more years.

If the plan was to wait for Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and others to be significan't, then we should have waited to make a Crochet-type trade.

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And I'd feel okay about this except I'm not really bursting with optimism about that extension for Crochet.  I don't doubt they make him an offer but I do doubt their ability to get it done.  

I believe that's their plan. Will it work out???

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

That's how I see it. The trade made the window NOW!

Of course, we may extend him, and maybe they already have an extension worked out, but for now, the window may not be better in 1 or more years.

If the plan was to wait for Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and others to be significan't, then we should have waited to make a Crochet-type trade.

Like I keep saying, somethin' just ain't right in that Red Sox Front Office.  If there's an intelligent decision-making process going on, I have no idea what it is. 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

I believe that's their plan. Will it work out???

And now it's my turn to utter this gem: hope is not a strategy.

But seriously, these guys have shown an inordinate capacity to fall short on their bids the last several years.  

I don't think anyone would be stunned if it happens again.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Yes let’s just waste another year waiting for the over hyped Suspects to lead us to the promise land. No I don’t think MOST fans are looking ahead to 2026 when 2025 hasn’t even started yet, and don’t want to hear that.

MOST fans can't name 10 current players. I'm sure they will ultimately not care that it takes one more year to get there. 

[Bellhorn04]

'We were really interested in keeping Garrett (Crochet) with us for a long time.  We just didn't quite line up in terms of a contract extension that made sense for everyone.  We wish him the best."