A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Did they make him an offer or not?

I was told they made a two year offer.  But front office aside, there were many Sox fans who didn’t wants Teoscar and I did and I was and they were wrong.  Petty, I know I know….stop raining on my Sunday morning thoughts darn it!!!!

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I keep trying to tell everyone on here that what JH used to do payroll wise is out the door IMO. He’s not the same old JH Anymore, so waiting for him to go over the cap again might not happen.

You’re right, but one could be forgiven last year for thinking such.  This year was the first year they really broke the trend and went under two years in a row, before 2024 they’d dip under reset and then spend.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I was told they made a two year offer.  But front office aside, there were many Sox fans who didn’t wants Teoscar and I did and I was and they were wrong.  Petty, I know I know….stop raining on my Sunday morning thoughts darn it!!!!

Teoscar said himself the Red Sox offered 2-$28M.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

You’re right, but one could be forgiven last year for thinking such.  This year was the first year they really broke the trend and went under two years in a row, before 2024 they’d dip under reset and then spend.

If we count 2020 as a season, they were under in 2020 and 2021.  People tend to forget that because 2021 turned out good LOL

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If we count 2020 as a season, they were under in 2020 and 2021.  People tend to forget that because 2021 turned out good LOL

I don’t count 2020 and you shouldn’t too, and they did go over in 22.  So maybe the new trend is to stay under two years in a row and then go over? 
 

I dunno, I don’t disagree the spending habits has changed.  But we can’t say they decided to stay under the cap back in 2020 when they went over in 22

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I don’t count 2020 and you shouldn’t too, and they did go over in 22.  So maybe the new trend is to stay under two years in a row and then go over? 
 

I dunno, I don’t disagree the spending habits has changed.  But we can’t say they decided to stay under the cap back in 2020 when they went over in 22

Hugh, they traded Betts and Price so they would be under in 2020. 

[Hugh2]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Hugh, they traded Betts and Price so they would be under in 2020. 

Shedding payroll to get under the cap wasn’t a break away from the norm.  The Sox have NEVER stayed over the cap
 

staying under the cap is the break from norm.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

Shedding payroll to get under the cap wasn’t a break away from the norm.  The Sox have NEVER stayed over the cap
 

staying under the cap is the break from norm.

So why stay under in 2021 after they got under in 2020?

I'm suggesting that Henry's new outlook started back in 2019.

In 2022 they went over, but only by $6 million.   

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So why stay under in 2021 after they got under in 2020?

I'm suggesting that Henry's new outlook started back in 2019.

In 2022 they went over, but only by $6 million.   

I get your point, but answering that question the way you want to creates a new one.  Why go over in 2022? One year doesn’t start a trend, it will be more telling each year they don’t go over.

[smokedogg1982]

I have an idea about  "what should the sox do with Yoshida" that is being asked everywhere right now. What if we do a salary dump for salary dump trade with the diamondbacks for Jordan Montgomery? He like Yoshida has next to no value and the owner has publicly blamed him for the team not making the postseason. He would give the red sox another arm and if he doesn't work out it's only a 1 year contract. Thought?

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Random Sunday morning thoughts.

 

Yoshida trade talk should die, it’s very unlikely, unless you’re willing to pay it all down or trade a top prospect please stop with the proposals.

Tyler O’Neill is the 3rd highest ranked free agent outfielder this year.  That goes to show you how bad free agency has got.  More and more teams are locking up their talent.

i was 100% right about Teoscar Hernandez.  I was a very strong advocate of giving him a 1 year deal to build his value and I was right.  He had an outstanding year.  I wish I can remember who argued against me so vehemently so I could rub it in your face.  Oh well.

Starting Today in a Cleveland fan for 1-2 weeks.

O'Neill was an excellent alternative to Teoscar. He cost less than $6M and a couple meh RP'ers. If you count shedding Dugo's deal, we spent the same on O'Neill, Weissert and Fitts as Dugo cost.

You were right, Teoscar did well, but it's not like the choice we took was worse.

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

O'Neill was an excellent alternative to Teoscar. He cost less than $6M and a couple meh RP'ers. If you count shedding Dugo's deal, we spent the same on O'Neill, Weissert and Fitts as Dugo cost.

You were right, Teoscar did well, but it's not like the choice we took was worse.

Teoscar 4.3 bWAR 3.5 fWAR avg. 3.9

O'Neill 2.7 bWAR 2.5 fWAR avg. 2.6

The O'Neill trade was a good one and fit well into a tight budget, but in terms of actual value Teoscar was considerably better.  

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

LA offered 24 million for one year, now he’s hitting free agency as the best outfielder not name Juan Soto.  If the Sox wanted him he could be had.  But the Boston brass, like many in here didn’t value him at all.

they may have valued him but he was not in John Henry's price range

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So why stay under in 2021 after they got under in 2020?

I'm suggesting that Henry's new outlook started back in 2019.

In 2022 they went over, but only by $6 million.   

very good chance they will never go over again while JH owns the team

[Randy Red Sox]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I really like Fried, a lot. He is 31.

It does worry me, that he's only gone over 175 IP, once.

Over 166, twice.

Martinez might come at half the price.

that is probably who we will get then on a 1 yr deal probably. I would just as soon stick with Crawford.

[Larry Cook]

I would sign fried in a heart beat this offseason . But I would try to keep it to a 4 year deal. 

[Randy Red Sox]

49 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I would sign fried in a heart beat this offseason . But I would try to keep it to a 4 year deal. 

that likely won't get it done. Unless Story and or Yoshida are traded Sox won't be paying big for a SP in their 30's

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

that is probably who we will get then on a 1 yr deal probably. I would just as soon stick with Crawford.

Nick Martinez is significantly better than Crawford, Gio and Bello. He's been very good longer than Houck.

His recent 3 year sample size is nothing to complain about:

3.31 ERA (126 ERA+) and 1.176 WHIP in 360 IP. (He was a RP'er for some of this, so that helps his numbers.)

Only 74 pitchers have 350+ IP since 2022, and here is where NM ranks:

49th in fWAR at 5.3 (just o.1 from Jon Gray, Pivetta and Detmers and ahead of Morton, Kikuchi, Bello and Crawford.)

35th in xFIP- at 95, just below M Keller and Bello

17th in ERA (just behind Wacha, Lugo and Sonny Gray and just ahead of L Castillo, Gilbert, Cease and Kirby.)

T15th in ERA- at 80 w Lugo (1 behind Webb, S Gray and Wacha)

This guy would help our rotation and pen, since someone would be pushed to the long man role- something we need, badly, too.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

I have an idea about  "what should the sox do with Yoshida" that is being asked everywhere right now. What if we do a salary dump for salary dump trade with the diamondbacks for Jordan Montgomery? He like Yoshida has next to no value and the owner has publicly blamed him for the team not making the postseason. He would give the red sox another arm and if he doesn't work out it's only a 1 year contract. Thought?

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[smokedogg1982]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Talk Sox!

Thank you very much 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, smokedogg1982 said:

I have an idea about  "what should the sox do with Yoshida" that is being asked everywhere right now. What if we do a salary dump for salary dump trade with the diamondbacks for Jordan Montgomery? He like Yoshida has next to no value and the owner has publicly blamed him for the team not making the postseason. He would give the red sox another arm and if he doesn't work out it's only a 1 year contract. Thought?

Welcome aboard.

I'd love the deal, but I am certain AZ would not like the deal, even if Yoshida had just one year remaining on his contract. Maybe, if we paid Yoshida's deal down to the same as what Monty is owed, they might not hang up on us.

I like the concept of the idea nd effort.

 

[smokedogg1982]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Welcome aboard.

I'd love the deal, but I am certain AZ would not like the deal, even if Yoshida had just one year remaining on his contract. Maybe, if we paid Yoshida's deal down to the same as what Monty is owed, they might not hang up on us.

I like the concept of the idea nd effort.

 

We owe what $54m/3 

They owe $25m/1 (player option) 

Throw in a low level prospect. It seems very clear that they want rid of him. I don't think 24 is who Montgomery is. With spring training under his belt he should improve. It's the only feasible way I can see to move on from Yoshida.

[Randy Red Sox]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nick Martinez is significantly better than Crawford, Gio and Bello. He's been very good longer than Houck.

His recent 3 year sample size is nothing to complain about:

3.31 ERA (126 ERA+) and 1.176 WHIP in 360 IP. (He was a RP'er for some of this, so that helps his numbers.)

Only 74 pitchers have 350+ IP since 2022, and here is where NM ranks:

49th in fWAR at 5.3 (just o.1 from Jon Gray, Pivetta and Detmers and ahead of Morton, Kikuchi, Bello and Crawford.)

35th in xFIP- at 95, just below M Keller and Bello

17th in ERA (just behind Wacha, Lugo and Sonny Gray and just ahead of L Castillo, Gilbert, Cease and Kirby.)

T15th in ERA- at 80 w Lugo (1 behind Webb, S Gray and Wacha)

This guy would help our rotation and pen, since someone would be pushed to the long man role- something we need, badly, too.

 

 

i am not say he is not better than Crawford.  what I AM saying is that when you factor in what his contract would be I don't think he would be a big enough upgrade. I am SICK AND BLOODY tired of the revolving door on players coming and going on short term deals of which the majority don't pan out. I want 25-28 or 29 yr old SP that fit in the window of our young players.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i am not say he is not better than Crawford.  what I AM saying is that when you factor in what his contract would be I don't think he would be a big enough upgrade. I am SICK AND BLOODY tired of the revolving door on players coming and going on short term deals of which the majority don't pan out. I want 25-28 or 29 yr old SP that fit in the window of our young players.

I'd rather we trade for a much better pitcher and use the money on the pen and maybe a second tier pitcher like N.M.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd rather we trade for a much better pitcher and use the money on the pen and maybe a second tier pitcher like N.M.

we really only need 1 TOP QUALITY new SP since we have Gioloto coming back

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we really only need 1 TOP QUALITY new SP since we have Gioloto coming back

Right, Giolito's automatically our top starter because he's our top paid starter. And it's guaranteed he'll come back better than ever, just like everyone else recovering from surgery.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we really only need 1 TOP QUALITY new SP since we have Gioloto coming back

I don't see it that way, but one really good SP'er and the rest spent on 3 quality pen arms is fine with me.

People talk about Crawford's IP, but I'd prefer him as our long man. Too many HRs allowed. Maybe he was lucky so many were solo blasts- maybe not. I'd prefer not to find out. He had an ERA+ of 98. That's really not bad for a 5th starter, but I have Gio pegged for that slot, with an 81 and 90 ERA+, his last 2 full seasons.

Besides, we know someone will get hurt, and if not, one of the 4 we got will likely take a step back.

An ace pick-up would be awesome. We need to plan for something going wrong, instead of acting shocked, when it does.

I think we have every position covered 2-3 deep, except catcher, so we add a decent 1 year catcher to go with Wong, and then improve our rotation and depth and pen.

I like Fitts, Criswell, Priester and maybe Dobbins as rotation depth, but I'd prefer they were the 7-10 guys, not the 6.

We do need a lot of pen help, and if the budget is limited, I can see going with 1 SP. Your point is valid. I think we can afford to trade Abreu and DHam for a couple nice pen guys, so I'm thinking sign one top RP'er like Tanner Scott and either sign a good SP'er or two, or trade a top prospect for one, and then sign someone like Nick Martinez, Kikuchi or Flaherty- and not a tier one FA SP'er.

 

[oldtimer]

I have been dormant for months after seeing the Sox falter as I expected they would. I agree with Hugh to some extent. Bring up the young talent to solve the 2nd base situation and improve the outfield. The young players don't have to get gray in their beards before becoming a positive, Trade Yoshida as he is not a field player and hasn't the power to be a DH. Look to Story to fill SS. Find a RH power bat in free agency. Not from the dumpster but someone front line. If need be, move Devers to DH. Costly for the position but it improves the defense and lowers the injury risks. With the extra money, get a front line starter and a RP who can deal with pressure situations. That requires adjustments in thinking by management and also coaching but should be enough to earn us a playoff spot. I've been a fan since the 1940's but have not felt optimistic about management being either intelligent or being willing to spend on the team. Hope they prove me wrong.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Right, Giolito's automatically our top starter because he's our top paid starter. And it's guaranteed he'll come back better than ever, just like everyone else recovering from surgery.

and since he has been "injured" and not "earned his keep", the Sox should trade him to Atlanta and pay $10M of his of salary for a AAA suspect. right?

[oldtimer]

After watching the Dodgers edge out the Padres, it made me think that both these teams are loaded with big name hitters and they also have excellent defen sive teams. Despite those attribute, both teams were largely shutdown by exceptional pitching. In the case of the Dodgers, they had injuries among their starters and were relying on a very capable and deep bull pen.  

To me there are two seasons. One where a team has to make the playoffs and the second for the team to succeed in the playoff. In the first, a loaded team can beat up enough on weaker average pitching and the second where they have to have outstanding pitching while ekeing out wins with defense, speed and what hittiing they can find. Hitters who have low strike out rates and put the ball in play are especially valued.

The Sox currently have one of the poorer defenses in baseball, had too many players with high strike rates and we're not deep on the pitching side. Those who believe ownership will spend enough to be competitive with teams like the Dodgers or Padres are just dreaming. Better to find ways to improve team speed and defense as much as possible from within and filling one or two position players while plowing the most money into at least one quality starter and greatly strengthening the BP. 

Suggestions:

1. Take Devers off  3rd and mainly DH him while trading Yoshida.

2. Fill 3rd with a FA with defensive chops and is a RH hitter.

3. Leave Story at short and back him up with Mayer

4. Fill 2nd from the minors with Cambell and let him compete with Grissom (best man starts)

5. Leave Casas at 1st with Devers as backup

6. I'm happy with Duran and Abreau but think we need to bring Anothy up. Refsnyder or other right  hsnd bat can back up. Return Rafaela to minors to improve plate discipline.

7. Wong as primary catcher but defense is questionable. FA backup catchel as Teel not ready.

These moves improves the defense and team speed. I am willing to risk the prospects hitting. What do we have to lose? Another dismal season?

8. Concentrate on at least one front line starter and multiple quality relief pitchers. We can expect pitching injuries so depth is criticl. i prefer younger arms where possible as it is  unlikely we will make enough moves to be fully competitive in 2025.