A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I assume you mean the deal that doesn’t involve Campbell?

i don't know about Moon but i'd do the Abreu/ Hamilton deal in a minute. but, no on Campbell.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I assume you mean the deal that doesn’t involve Campbell?

I'd do the deal with Abreu today. The Campbell deal would only work if Lopez is 2023 Lopez going forward and the Sox are planning on competing the next 3 years. 

[Hugh2]

18 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Or maybe it's the new norm?

It's going to be awfully hard to argue otherwise if they don't spend this offseason. 

[dgalehouse]

On 10/13/2024 at 8:49 PM, harmony said:

This year the Diamondbacks paid Joc Pederson, a lefthand-hitting DH only, $12.5 million to put up 3.0 fWAR, about twice what Masataka Yoshida has posted in his first two MLB seasons.

Arizona is unlikely to pay more for less production.

  The Cooler.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

No, because I don't think Kikuchi is much better than Crawford or Bello. 

If Gio is healthy, someone goes to the pen, and in theory, improves it.

If Gio is not healthy, Kikuchi just has to be better than Criswell (18 GS) and pen games (14.) The scary thing is, he can be much better than Criswell, but not match the team's 12-6 record in his starts.

[Bellhorn04]

54 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

  The Cooler.

Posts like that one from Harmony seem like they're intended not just to present information, but to make us feel bad.  😭

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If Gio is healthy, someone goes to the pen, and in theory, improves it.

If Gio is not healthy, Kikuchi just has to be better than Criswell (18 GS) and pen games (14.) The scary thing is, he can be much better than Criswell, but not match the team's 12-6 record in his starts.

Are we really doing W/L now? I'd rather them use that money on the pen. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Posts like that one from Harmony seem like they're intended not just to present information, but to make us feel bad.  😭

I don't think we could feel any worse about Masa right now. Whatever scout liked him should be sent to STL. 

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Posts like that one from Harmony seem like they're intended not just to present information, but to make us feel bad.  😭

Especially since Pederson has a mutual option for $14mill that he might not exercise coming off a 3 fWAR season if he hopes to get a longer deal…

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are we really doing W/L now? I'd rather them use that money on the pen. 

IMO, we need both. I's much prefer a better SP than Kikuchi, but I'd like him in the starting 5 over what we have.

I'm not high on Crawford and think Kikuchi is better than Bello and Gio. He'd be my #2 our of what we have, now.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Whatever scout liked him should be sent to STL. 

Several Red Sox scouts liked Masataka Yoshida, including:

• Steve Ward

  A veteran scout who was convinced of Yoshida's talent after watching hours of video and hearing reports from Matsumoto
• Gus Quattlebaum

  The vice president of scouting development and integration who traveled to Japan to see Yoshida in person
• Mike Rikard

  The vice president of scouting who traveled to Japan to see Yoshida in person
• Steve Peck

  A special assignment scout who traveled to Japan to see Yoshida in person
• Marcus Cuellar

  The manager of international scouting who traveled to Japan to see Yoshida in person 

   

   

The Red Sox were unable to travel to Japan to see Yoshida in person in 2020 and 2021 due to pandemic-related restrictions.

 

An article link: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4215769/2023/02/17/red-sox-scout-translator-yoshida/

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

• It was almost exactly one year ago that Michael Fulmer underwent a UCL revision surgery, which ended the right-hander’s 2024 season before it even began.  After a year of rehab, however, Fulmer told WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link) that he is back to throwing off a mound and “is trending well for” the start of Spring Training.  Despite the injury, Fulmer still landed a contract last offseason, as the Red Sox signed him to a two-year minor league contract with the knowledge that the 2024 campaign would be a wash.  Fulmer’s turn towards relief pitching in 2021 yielded pretty positive results over the 2021-23 seasons, and if he finally get healthy during what has been an injury-plagued career, Fulmer is an intriguing no-risk flier for the Sox heading into next season.

[moonslav59]

Would anyone trade Mayer and Abreu for Bailey Ober, Jhoan Duran and Ryan Jeffers?

SP: Houck, Ober, Giolito, Bello, Crawford

RP: Duran, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Criswell, Wink, Fulmer, Guerrero

1. L Duran LF

2. R Campbell 2B

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Anthony RF

7. R Jeffers C

8. L Yoshida/R Refsnyder DH

9. R Rafaela CF

C: Wong, UT Grissom, Romy & DHam

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

If the sox don't want Yoshida because he doesn't play the field and doesn't have the power to be a DH, why would someone else want him?

Because he looks good on base in a giants uniform 

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Because he looks good on base in a giants uniform 

Yoshida will definitely be on Boston’s payroll next year, and almost equally likely wearing their uniform…

[Larry Cook]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Yoshida will definitely be on Boston’s payroll next year, and almost equally likely wearing their uniform…

 Maybe bres-slow can work a miracle deal! The giants or Mariners are the best options 

[notin]

15 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

 Maybe bres-slow can work a miracle deal! The giants or Mariners are the best options 

The Mariners used Mitch Garver at DH, and he was a miserable failure there with a .627 OPS.  He was abysmal at home (and had never hit well in Seattle in his career), but his road numbers didn’t exactly dazzle.  Historically he does better at Fenway.

 

While Seattle would undoubtedly like to replace Garver’s minimal production, the contracts are miles apart.  Yoshida is owed $55.6mill over the next 3 years; Garver is owed $13mill for next season.  While Yoshida would be an upgrade for Seattle (and possibly a chance to shed Garver’s deal), how much do they really like Yoshida?  Is there a cash amount that makes it happen?

Not exactly sure, but when trying to move Yoshida, this is probably more realistic than Montgomery, who will draw the interest of multiple teams, most of whom are not trying to move a $55mill contract in return.

 

Not sure why the Giants fit.  They could replace Soler for less money, and possibly just turn to Blake Sabol, whose bat belongs in their lineup…

 

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

16 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Because he looks good on base in a giants uniform 

That's just dumb.

It always cracks me up when fans say "We don't want this guy because he can't do this or that so we should just trade him"

As if the other GM's are blind and can't see the same shortcomings that the player has as the fans see.

SMH

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

That's just dumb.

It always cracks me up when fans say "We don't want this guy because he can't do this or that so we should just trade him"

As if the other GM's are blind and can't see the same shortcomings that the player has as the fans see.

SMH

I think other teams just have different holes in their lineups that need to be filled. I think if the Sox covered a certain portion of Masa's salary, that a trade would be worthwhile to the team. 

[moonslav59]

The hard part about matching up with a team looking to dump salary, is that they are looking to DUMP SALARY- not trade one for another. If you lessen the cost and or shorten the years of cost, they may be interested, but if someone else allows them to save more money, and they are in rebuild mode anyway, why would a rebuilding team want Yoshida?

It would not be for PR.

It would not be for a team looking at a window opening in 2027- just in time for Yoshida's final contract year at post prime.

More likely: we find a team willing to take Yoshida and $13M a year x 3 and then maybe take Monty and some cash for DHam or Wink.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think other teams just have different holes in their lineups that need to be filled. I think if the Sox covered a certain portion of Masa's salary, that a trade would be worthwhile to the team. 

But the same holes still exist in Masa's game. He doesn't play the field and he doesn't hit for enough power to be a DH.

Now factor in the shoulder injury. He might not even be ready for the start of next season. And even if he is, how much does it sap his already limited power? The results from labrum surgery are not always the best.

[notin]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The hard part about matching up with a team looking to dump salary, is that they are looking to DUMP SALARY- not trade one for another. If you lessen the cost and or shorten the years of cost, they may be interested, but if someone else allows them to save more money, and they are in rebuild mode anyway, why would a rebuilding team want Yoshida?

It would not be for PR.

It would not be for a team looking at a window opening in 2027- just in time for Yoshida's final contract year at post prime.

More likely: we find a team willing to take Yoshida and $13M a year x 3 and then maybe take Monty and some cash for DHam or Wink.

Or you trade him for one of the worst contracts in MLB and hope it works out. 

Yoshida to the Angels for Anthony Rendon (2 years over $70mill)!!  
 

Sox dump Yoshida while getting a right-handed hitting power bat who plays good defense at third! It’s perfect!

 

All they need is someone to cover third for the 200 games Rendon will sit out over the next two years!

 

(This post contains sarcasm.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

But the same holes still exist in Masa's game. He doesn't play the field and he doesn't hit for enough power to be a DH.

Now factor in the shoulder injury. He might not even be ready for the start of next season. And even if he is, how much does it sap his already limited power? The results from labrum surgery are not always the best.

Yeah, the surgery basically takes him off the table for now.    

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Or you trade him for one of the worst contracts in MLB and hope it works out. 

Yoshida to the Angels for Anthony Rendon (2 years over $70mill)!!  
 

Sox dump Yoshida while getting a right-handed hitting power bat who plays good defense at third! It’s perfect!

 

All they need is someone to cover third for the 200 games Rendon will sit out over the next two years!

 

(This post contains sarcasm.)

 

This is the type of deal I think the other team might do- not Yoshi for Monty, even if we add cash.

It would improve the defense, and swap a LHB for a RHB, but that's about all the good I see.

Worse offense.

Worse budget hit, especially AAV.

Close call to me. I'm not sure JH would even consider this.

[moonslav59]

I doubt anyone takes a call on Yoshida, until he's back and showing he can hit. Even then, the amount we pay will always be the key.

It seems almost a sure thing, he'll be on the 40 on opening day- maybe the IL on day 2, but still on his team.

The most likely trade gus might be LHB Abreu, LHP DHam and RHP Wink. Not sure what we get for any of them, or some combination of them.

A lot might depend on just how much faith we have in Anthony, Campbell and Mayer, and if the service time issue will be a factor, or not. If we assume all are ML ready, right now, and service time is not an issue, a list of players fighting for a slot on the 26 could reasonably include... (assuming health)

Wong & ____ (Teel not ready for opening day and does not need to be added to the 40.)

Casas

Campbell, Grissom, DHam

Story, Mayer, Romy

Devers (Meidroth likely stays in AAA and not on the 40 to start 2025.)

Duran

Rafaela

Abreu & Anthony

Yoshiuda, Ref-EValdez

This is 16-17 players fighting for 13 slot, and there is no Gasper, Sogard, Teel &Meidroth.)

[notin]

24 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

But the same holes still exist in Masa's game. He doesn't play the field and he doesn't hit for enough power to be a DH.

Now factor in the shoulder injury. He might not even be ready for the start of next season. And even if he is, how much does it sap his already limited power? The results from labrum surgery are not always the best.

Luis Arraez didn’t hit with enough power to be a DH either, yet his team got to the NLDS anyway…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Luis Arraez didn’t hit with enough power to be a DH either, yet his team got to the NLDS anyway…

Higher OPS+ and bWAR than Arraez and yet the Sox could commit to starting the guy at various points during the year. Very weird. 

[Hugh2]

Peoples obsession with getting Yoshida off this roster is starting to make me really want Yoshida to stay. 

 

Which of course, is almost a guarantee to happen so I'll be rooting hard for him next year, may he be a great bench bat. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Peoples obsession with getting Yoshida off this roster is starting to make me really want Yoshida to stay. 

 

Which of course, is almost a guarantee to happen so I'll be rooting hard for him next year, may he be a great bench bat. 

Some people have wanted him off the roster since the day he was signed. There are lots of moves we could discuss. This is the one being discussed right now.

Talked about trading Duran ✅

Talked about trading Mayer ✅

Talked about trading Story ✅

Talked about trading Wilyer ✅

Talked about trading Casas ✅

Talked about trading Masa ✅

Talked about acquiring players from the Marlins and Mariners (must be done annually) ✅

I don't think people really want to talk about trading potential rule 5 guys (i.e. bullpen arms). 

Spend the rest of the offseason figuring out a realistic trade destination for Rafael Devers? 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Some people have wanted him off the roster since the day he was signed. There are lots of moves we could discuss. This is the one being discussed right now.

Talked about trading Duran ✅

Talked about trading Mayer ✅

Talked about trading Story ✅

Talked about trading Wilyer ✅

Talked about trading Casas ✅

Talked about trading Masa ✅

Talked about acquiring players from the Marlins and Mariners (must be done annually) ✅

I don't think people really want to talk about trading potential rule 5 guys (i.e. bullpen arms). 

Spend the rest of the offseason figuring out a realistic trade destination for Rafael Devers? 

Nope, with his bum shoulder(s) Raffy's got virtually the same problem as Yoshida, 2025-wise.