A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, notin said:

To some, yes.  But not to everyone…

If the logic means more to you than the results than good for you. Does the logic of trading Mookie mean more to you, or the Results of Mookie not being in Boston anymore? Does the logic of having bad defensive 1B, and 3B, mean more, or the results of it being that way?

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/9/2024 at 5:27 AM, Hugh2 said:

I'm tired of hearing that excuse (not from you but from the FO) big market successful teams take big swings. 

Sox could trade Casas/Campbell for a stud starting pitcher and move Devers over to 1B.  But then what do you do? go out and pay Bregman a massive contract that is probably just as risky at 3B and roll the dice with Story being healthy at SS and Grissom at 2nd?

The point is, the Sox have the capacity to make those big swings and even miss a little if they don't have to pay big money at 2B/1B/CF/LF/RF because they have young cost controlled talent.  Trading young talent is just robbing peter to pay paul.  I say just pay paul goddamnit. 

how do you figure Campbell could bring back a top caliber SP as he hasn't even played a MLB game yet. Perhaps as part of a package.

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, notin said:

Not all injured mid-30s pitchers are the same.  Hendriks pitches in a role that requires less durability yet still managed three times as many IP as Sale from 2020-2022.  Also, coming off the first TJ has historically been fairly clean for most pitchers, for at least the first 3 years.

I know fans get disgruntled with these injury contract reclaimation projects.  But they’re not always a bad thing, and they’re certainly not new for Boston.  (Lou Gorman had an outstanding track record with them, and even the original DD - Dan Duquette- had successes.)

there is always risk signing SP to long term deals when they are entering their 30's. Sox have been burned in the past and I think that is why they will stay away from guys like Burnes and Fried. I am sure they would prefer to trade for a young QUALITY COST CONTROLLED SP instead. That would also fit into their window of young talent they currently have both on the roster and the 3-4 top prospects they currently have.

[moonslav59]

How about this one:

To SFG:

Yoshida $18M x 3

Mayer (5 years of control)

Maybe add DHam or if we have to... Abreu (5 years of control)

BOS takes on a net $90M in contracts ($49M '25, $48M in '26, $23M '27, $24M '28) Tax hit: $52M-$18M= $34M in '25, $41M-$18M= $23M in  '26 , Even in '27, and $18M in '28 with Webb and no Yoshida.

 

To BOS:

Logan Webb $12M in '25, $23M in '26 & '27 and $24M in '28 ($18M tax hit per year)

Robbie Ray $25M x 2 ($23M tax hit per 2 years)

Taylor Rogers (LH RP) $12M x 1 ($11M tax hit for one year)

SFG saves $144M minus $54M for Yoshida= $90M total.

[Randy Red Sox]

If I am Breslow I look to trade both Story and Yoshida as Mayer I believe is close to ready.  I would then try and see if a package with Campbell and Abreu would bring a solid young SP. Then if we were able to deal Story and or Yoshida they could then consider taking the risk of signing Burnes or Fried. That could be done  and also stay below the luxury cap. I would then see if Janssen would take a 1-2 yr deal. The only other thing need would be adding a RH bat preferably a guy who could play the OF or 2B.  With these moves I think the Sox could be true contenders as early as next year.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

there is always risk signing SP to long term deals when they are entering their 30's. Sox have been burned in the past and I think that is why they will stay away from guys like Burnes and Fried. I am sure they would prefer to trade for a young QUALITY COST CONTROLLED SP instead. That would also fit into their window of young talent they currently have both on the roster and the 3-4 top prospects they currently have.

Well, we agree on not taking huge risks on Burnes.

A young, cost-controlled starting pitcher? The Sox have a few already, and the ones they don’t have are difficult to get.

I stand by my choice of the underrated Nick Martinez, although the reality is plenty of MLB teams have evaluated him and I don’t know if they value him or not.

But I will say - build that bullpen!! Tanner Scott - top priority.  Look into Camilo Doval.  Is he available? (As cheaply as BTV suggests?) Does his former pitching coach Andy Bailey think he’s a good target?  If not, is Devin Williams really as cheap as BTV suggests?

[Old Red]

Just now, Randy Red Sox said:

If I am Breslow I look to trade both Story and Yoshida as Mayer I believe is close to ready.  I would then try and see if a package with Campbell and Abreu would bring a solid young SP. Then if we were able to deal Story and or Yoshida they could then consider taking the risk of signing Burnes or Fried. That could be done  and also stay below the luxury cap. I would then see if Janssen would take a 1-2 yr deal. The only other thing need would be adding a RH bat preferably a guy who could play the OF or 2B.  With these moves I think the Sox could be true contenders as early as next year.

Story, and Yoshida will be hard to trade with their contracts. I don’t believe Mayer is that close to being ready either. He’s lost valuable developmental time the last two years due to injuries that finished his season.

[harmony]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, we agree on not taking huge risks on Burnes.

A young, cost-controlled starting pitcher? The Sox have a few already, and the ones they don’t have are difficult to get.

I stand by my choice of the underrated Nick Martinez, although the reality is plenty of MLB teams have evaluated him and I don’t know if they value him or not.

But I will say - build that bullpen!! Tanner Scott - top priority.  Look into Camilo Doval.  Is he available? (As cheaply as BTV suggests?) Does his former pitching coach Andy Bailey think he’s a good target?  If not, is Devin Williams really as cheap as BTV suggests?

Is Baseball Trade Values too sensitive to small recent samples for relievers?

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about this one:

To SFG:

Yoshida $18M x 3

Mayer (5 years of control)

Maybe add DHam or if we have to... Abreu (5 years of control)

BOS takes on a net $90M in contracts ($49M '25, $48M in '26, $23M '27, $24M '28) Tax hit: $52M-$18M= $34M in '25, $41M-$18M= $23M in  '26 , Even in '27, and $18M in '28 with Webb and no Yoshida.

 

To BOS:

Logan Webb $12M in '25, $23M in '26 & '27 and $24M in '28 ($18M tax hit per year)

Robbie Ray $25M x 2 ($23M tax hit per 2 years)

Taylor Rogers (LH RP) $12M x 1 ($11M tax hit for one year)

SFG saves $144M minus $54M for Yoshida= $90M total.

JH says NO! I don’t know why some on here keep thinking the Red Sox are going to take on Any big contracts.🙈🤭🤮

[Randy Red Sox]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Story, and Yoshida will be hard to trade with their contracts. I don’t believe Mayer is that close to being ready either. He’s lost valuable developmental time the last two years due to injuries that finished his season.

I believe that if not for the injuries Mayer would already be in Boston but Rafaela can fill in at SS if need be.  Not perfect but he did a decent job there once he got his feet wet at the position., I am sure we would need to eat some $$$ on both Yoshia and Story but it's not like we haven't done that before.

[harmony]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How about this one:

To SFG:

Yoshida $18M x 3

Mayer (5 years of control)

Maybe add DHam or if we have to... Abreu (5 years of control)

BOS takes on a net $90M in contracts ($49M '25, $48M in '26, $23M '27, $24M '28) Tax hit: $52M-$18M= $34M in '25, $41M-$18M= $23M in  '26 , Even in '27, and $18M in '28 with Webb and no Yoshida.

 

To BOS:

Logan Webb $12M in '25, $23M in '26 & '27 and $24M in '28 ($18M tax hit per year)

Robbie Ray $25M x 2 ($23M tax hit per 2 years)

Taylor Rogers (LH RP) $12M x 1 ($11M tax hit for one year)

SFG saves $144M minus $54M for Yoshida= $90M total.

Why would the Giants trade a bonafide ace* in Logan Webb for a package headlined by an unproven prospect or a designated hitter who has underperformed his contract?

* in 66 starts over the past two seasons Webb ranks second in fWAR among all pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&ind=0&postseason=&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2023&season=2024

[notin]

43 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If the logic means more to you than the results than good for you. Does the logic of trading Mookie mean more to you, or the Results of Mookie not being in Boston anymore? Does the logic of having bad defensive 1B, and 3B, mean more, or the results of it being that way?

Other than saving money, there was no logic to trading Mookie.  
 

Not sure what you mean with the last one.  The Sox suck defensively at 1b and especially 3b.  Those are facts and easily supported ones.  Yet I keep getting told it would bad to fix it.  Apparently lots of fans like bad defense.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, harmony said:

Why would the Giants trade a bonafide ace* in Logan Webb for a package headlined by an unproven prospect or a designated hitter who has underperformed his contract?

* in 66 starts over the past two seasons Webb ranks second in fWAR among all pitchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&ind=0&postseason=&startdate=&enddate=&month=0&season1=2023&season=2024

To save $90M, which they could spend wisely and build around Mayer.

They are going nowhere, fast.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Other than saving money, there was no logic to trading Mookie.  
 

Not sure what you mean with the last one.  The Sox suck defensively at 1b and especially 3b.  Those are facts and easily supported ones.  Yet I keep getting told it would bad to fix it.  Apparently lots of fans like bad defense.

Who said it would be bad to fix it? What i keep saying is I don’t believe the Red Sox see the D as a bad enough problem to make all the changes you, and others suggest to fix it, and that’s why it hasn’t been fixed. 

[notin]

17 minutes ago, harmony said:

Is Baseball Trade Values too sensitive to small recent samples for relievers?

With Doval, apparently.  He just reached his first arb year.

With Williams, one year left at $10.5mill.  He shouldn’t be extremely expensive…

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Who said it would be bad to fix it? What i keep saying is I don’t believe the Red Sox see the D as a bad enough problem to make all the changes you, and others suggest to fix it, and that’s why it hasn’t been fixed. 

You’re not the only person on this forum.  And how could you possibly think their D is not a problem? Still only watching highlights?

 

Other people kept responding with problems moving Devers to 1b, which is apparently tougher to learn than nuclear physics when taught by a professor who only speaks Swahili.   It’s a diversion that ignores that while his ability at first is unknown, he clearly cannot play third

[Randy Red Sox]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

Well, we agree on not taking huge risks on Burnes.

A young, cost-controlled starting pitcher? The Sox have a few already, and the ones they don’t have are difficult to get.

I stand by my choice of the underrated Nick Martinez, although the reality is plenty of MLB teams have evaluated him and I don’t know if they value him or not.

But I will say - build that bullpen!! Tanner Scott - top priority.  Look into Camilo Doval.  Is he available? (As cheaply as BTV suggests?) Does his former pitching coach Andy Bailey think he’s a good target?  If not, is Devin Williams really as cheap as BTV suggests?

i am not familiar with Martinez but looking at his stats does not really excite me along with the fact he is soon to be 35. I am tired of these type of signings. If we follow my plan our rotation would be:

Fried

SP Via trade

Houck

Bello

Gioloto

Crawford would be the long man and Whitlock is a full time RP. Need to add a good LH reliever but I think the Sox are counting on Fulmer and Hendricks in the pen along with Slaten.  I dont see a Fried signing unless either Yoshida and or Story are dealt though.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

Other than saving money, there was no logic to trading Mookie.  
 

Not sure what you mean with the last one.  The Sox suck defensively at 1b and especially 3b.  Those are facts and easily supported ones.  Yet I keep getting told it would bad to fix it.  Apparently lots of fans like bad defense.

The ones most pissed at us losing, refuse to think ideas to get better have any merit.

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i am not familiar with Martinez but looking at his stats does not really excite me along with the fact he is soon to be 35. I am tired of these type of signings. If we follow my plan our rotation would be:

Fried

SP Via trade

Houck

Bello

Gioloto

Crawford would be the long man and Whitlock is a full time RP. Need to add a good LH reliever but I think the Sox are counting on Fulmer and Hendricks in the pen along with Slaten.  I dont see a Fried signing unless either Yoshida and or Story are dealt though.

I really like Fried, a lot. He is 31.

It does worry me, that he's only gone over 175 IP, once.

Over 166, twice.

Martinez might come at half the price.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i am not familiar with Martinez but looking at his stats does not really excite me along with the fact he is soon to be 35. I am tired of these type of signings. If we follow my plan our rotation would be:

Fried

SP Via trade

Houck

Bello

Gioloto

Crawford would be the long man and Whitlock is a full time RP. Need to add a good LH reliever but I think the Sox are counting on Fulmer and Hendricks in the pen along with Slaten.  I dont see a Fried signing unless either Yoshida and or Story are dealt though.

Fried is possibly riskier than Burnes.  And it’s not like either of them will settle for a 4 year deal.  If you don’t like 35yo pitchers, both Fried and Burnes will be well past that age when their next deal expires.

Martinez might not get more than 3 years.  Martinez is coming off a 3.5 fWAR season, which puts him between Burnes (3.7) and Fried (3.4).  I doubt he is between them in salary or (more important) years on his next deal.

Crawford will not be a reliever.  The guy pitched 180 innings last year and had nearly identical numbers to Pablo López.  Would you make Pablo López a reliever?

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The ones most pissed at us losing, refuse to think ideas to get better have any merit.

The ones most pissed at us  losing refuse to think your ideas to get better have any merit, because what you suggest the Red Sox don’t see it that way IMO, and that is pretty evident to me. I don’t see the Red Sox signing any big long term contracts, or taking any back to get rid of the likes of Masa, and Story. You suggest, and think what you would do, or like to see get done, and I think what I think the Red Sox will Actually do. Big difference.

 

 

 

[Old Red]

4 hours ago, notin said:

You’re not the only person on this forum.  And how could you possibly think their D is not a problem? Still only watching highlights?

 

Other people kept responding with problems moving Devers to 1b, which is apparently tougher to learn than nuclear physics when taught by a professor who only speaks Swahili.   It’s a diversion that ignores that while his ability at first is unknown, he clearly cannot play third

Where did I say I didn’t think the Red Sox D is, and hasn’t been a problem? I Didn’t. I’ll say for the 1000th that you, and others don’t seem to comprehend is that IMO the Red Sox brain trust don’t see the D as a big enough problem to make the drastic changes that you, and others suggest. It seems pretty clear to me, and if they did they most likely would have done something by now.🙈🤭

[Hugh2]

Random Sunday morning thoughts.

 

Yoshida trade talk should die, it’s very unlikely, unless you’re willing to pay it all down or trade a top prospect please stop with the proposals.

Tyler O’Neill is the 3rd highest ranked free agent outfielder this year.  That goes to show you how bad free agency has got.  More and more teams are locking up their talent.

i was 100% right about Teoscar Hernandez.  I was a very strong advocate of giving him a 1 year deal to build his value and I was right.  He had an outstanding year.  I wish I can remember who argued against me so vehemently so I could rub it in your face.  Oh well.

Starting Today in a Cleveland fan for 1-2 weeks.

[Old Red]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Random Sunday morning thoughts.

 

Yoshida trade talk should die, it’s very unlikely, unless you’re willing to pay it all down or trade a top prospect please stop with the proposals.

Tyler O’Neill is the 3rd highest ranked free agent outfielder this year.  That goes to show you how bad free agency has got.  More and more teams are locking up their talent.

i was 100% right about Teoscar Hernandez.  I was a very strong advocate of giving him a 1 year deal to build his value and I was right.  He had an outstanding year.  I wish I can remember who argued against me so vehemently so I could rub it in your face.  Oh well.

Starting Today in a Cleveland fan for 1-2 weeks.

The Red Sox offered 2 yr/$28M, but he wanted to go to a winner, and he surely made the right choice.

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox offered 2 yr/$28M, but he wanted to go to a winner, and he surely made the right choice.

LA offered 24 million for one year, now he’s hitting free agency as the best outfielder not name Juan Soto.  If the Sox wanted him he could be had.  But the Boston brass, like many in here didn’t value him at all.

[Hugh2]

18 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

how do you figure Campbell could bring back a top caliber SP as he hasn't even played a MLB game yet. Perhaps as part of a package.

That’s exactly what I said

[Bellhorn04]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

LA offered 24 million for one year, now he’s hitting free agency as the best outfielder not name Juan Soto.  If the Sox wanted him he could be had.  But the Boston brass, like many in here didn’t value him at all.

I think they valued him.  But as with many other free agents in recent offseasons, they just weren't willing to pay what it took to sign the player.  What's been especially frustrating is that many of these free agents signed very reasonable deals.  We're not talking about the big splash signings.

We're talking about tight, tight budgets for the third wealthiest team in the game.

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think they valued him.  But as with many other free agents in recent offseasons, they just weren't willing to pay what it took to sign the player.  What's been especially frustrating is that many of these free agents signed very reasonable deals.  We're not talking about the big splash signings.

We're talking about tight, tight budgets for the third wealthiest team in the game.

Yes, but team aside many fans didn’t like the ideal because they said Teoscar was in serious decline.  I was of the opinion he could have a huge comeback year to rebuild his value.  I was right.

however, I advocated the one year deal on the assumption that the Sox would continue their go over the cap two years and reset model.  They broke that trend last year.  Teoscar was never an option for them.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, but team aside many fans didn’t like the ideal because they said Teoscar was in serious decline.  I was of the opinion he could have a huge comeback year to rebuild his value.  I was right.

however, I advocated the one year deal on the assumption that the Sox would continue their go over the cap two years and reset model.  They broke that trend last year.  Teoscar was never an option for them.

Did they make him an offer or not?

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, but team aside many fans didn’t like the ideal because they said Teoscar was in serious decline.  I was of the opinion he could have a huge comeback year to rebuild his value.  I was right.

however, I advocated the one year deal on the assumption that the Sox would continue their go over the cap two years and reset model.  They broke that trend last year.  Teoscar was never an option for them.

I keep trying to tell everyone on here that what JH used to do payroll wise is out the door IMO. He’s not the same old JH Anymore, so waiting for him to go over the cap again might not happen.