A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Any talk on that Twins site about how they're the Yankees' whipping boys? 

No, but the first thing I saw when I opened the site was "The Downside of a Lineup Full of JD Drews." 

https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/68690-the-downside-of-a-lineup-full-of-jd-drews/

That just brings up too many memories from old TalkSox that I feel called out... 😖

[moonslav59]

I do think we might match up with MN, if they are looking to trade Lopez or some of their soon-to-be arb pitchers. I'd like to see us get Jeffers, their RHB catcher with 1 year of control left. He also averages about 28 HRs per 650 PAs.

Get it done!

[moonslav59]

Mayer, Abreu, Wong, Crawford & Wikelman

for

Ober (3 arbs), Ryan (3 arbs) and Jeffers (1 arb)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With the tepid AL Central offering absolutely zero threat to keep the Yankees out of the World Series, there is a real chance the final round for 2024 rings and banners will come down to a New York-New York showdown.

Hate to say this, but maybe it will be Sox fans' best hope for ownership to once again invest in legitimate pitching talent.

Of the Final Four right now, only the Yankees and Mets feature starting rotations of actual starting pitchers. The Yanks paid top dollar for Rodon and Cole, among others. The Mets signed Quintana, Manaea, Severino and Senga (none broke the bank, like with Scherzer and Verlander, but those flops didn't stop the club from spending on MLB starters, either).

Imagine, if instead, Cleveland and LA managed to make it to the World Series --  with scrap heap meatballers ... or RYAN BRAISER as an OPENER?!? John Henry would feel justified to cut corners for another half decade. And the forum will feature more winters of daily posts arguing about market values that don't exist in Boston. 

[mvp 78]

Dodgers 2024 offseason:

Signed Jason Heyward

Signed Shohei Ohtani

Traded for Tyler Glasnow

Signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Signed Teoscar Hernandez

Signed James Paxton

Signed Ryan Brasier

Signed Clayton Kershaw

Traded for Manuel Margot

Yeah, I think the lesson JH should learn from the Dodgers this season is to have a quiet offseason. That's how they got to the playoffs for sure!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Dodgers 2024 offseason:

Signed Jason Heyward

Signed Shohei Ohtani

Traded for Tyler Glasnow

Signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Signed Teoscar Hernandez

Signed James Paxton

Signed Ryan Brasier

Signed Clayton Kershaw

Traded for Manuel Margot

Yeah, I think the lesson JH should learn from the Dodgers this season is to have a quiet offseason. That's how they got to the playoffs for sure!!!

Conveniently ignore that Henry can dismiss that entire list except Braiser, who is getting paid $4.5 million and opened Game 2 of the LCS.

JH -- if actually watching the playoffs at all, and still all about beating the system (that he helped sustain 20 years ago) -- probably already called or texted Craig about Braiser and not spending kajillions on the others. 

Root for the Mets, Sox fans.

[moonslav59]

Yoshida underwent labral repair surgery on his right shoulder.

Duran (CF) and Abreu (RF) are Gold Glove finalists.

 

 

[notin]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

With the tepid AL Central offering absolutely zero threat to keep the Yankees out of the World Series, there is a real chance the final round for 2024 rings and banners will come down to a New York-New York showdown.

Hate to say this, but maybe it will be Sox fans' best hope for ownership to once again invest in legitimate pitching talent.

Of the Final Four right now, only the Yankees and Mets feature starting rotations of actual starting pitchers. The Yanks paid top dollar for Rodon and Cole, among others. The Mets signed Quintana, Manaea, Severino and Senga (none broke the bank, like with Scherzer and Verlander, but those flops didn't stop the club from spending on MLB starters, either).

Imagine, if instead, Cleveland and LA managed to make it to the World Series --  with scrap heap meatballers ... or RYAN BRAISER as an OPENER?!? John Henry would feel justified to cut corners for another half decade. And the forum will feature more winters of daily posts arguing about market values that don't exist in Boston. 

I am not so certain the success of the Dodgers creates an argument for a successful low budget team…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I am not so certain the success of the Dodgers creates an argument for a successful low budget team…

Who would even interpret a talksox post that way, except bored or bitter fans whose team isn't even in the postseason, and are just looking for something semantic to jump all over on their screens.

But if LA makes the World Series with Ryan Braiser as an opener -- taking a regular turn in the Dodgers' rotation -- it sure will make it easier for reluctant spenders to say they don't need to blow $325 million on a Yamamoto, when less than two percent of that can get you there, too.

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping you are joking.

[moonslav59]

If we make no major trades, what would it cost to get the minimum quality players we need. There is some disagreement over what our top needs are and how much should be allocated for particular need area.

Most think we need ...

2-3 RP'ers (from a closer to a couple set up men to maybe just 3 good RP'er)

1-2 SP'er (from an ace to an innings eater 4/5 slot guy)

A RHB (with some power- maybe at Catcher of OF, if we trade Abreu.)

I'm going to assume we go for 4 significant players and their price ranges:

AAV

SP: $15-30M (I'll say $24M)

RP1: $8-18M (Maybe $16M)

RP2: $6-12M (Maybe $8M)

RP3 or RHB: $6-12M (Maybe $7M)

That's $55M total. I think we'd be under the tax line paying that out, but will we?

We could also make a big trade or a couple medium ones and either spend more on less players, of fatten JH's wallet by just spendingless.

[win red sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If we make no major trades, what would it cost to get the minimum quality players we need. There is some disagreement over what our top needs are and how much should be allocated for particular need area.

Most think we need ...

2-3 RP'ers (from a closer to a couple set up men to maybe just 3 good RP'er)

1-2 SP'er (from an ace to an innings eater 4/5 slot guy)

A RHB (with some power- maybe at Catcher of OF, if we trade Abreu.)

I'm going to assume we go for 4 significant players and their price ranges:

AAV

SP: $15-30M (I'll say $24M)

RP1: $8-18M (Maybe $16M)

RP2: $6-12M (Maybe $8M)

RP3 or RHB: $6-12M (Maybe $7M)

That's $55M total. I think we'd be under the tax line paying that out, but will we?

We could also make a big trade or a couple medium ones and either spend more on less players, of fatten JH's wallet by just spendingless.

Seems reasonable

SP 1  Flaherty (4x24) or Kikuchi (2x24)

RP 1 Scott (4x17) or Hoffman (3x15)

RP 2 Estevez (3x10) or Treinen (1x10)

RP 3 Martin (1x8)

or

RHB Grichuck (1x5)

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, win red sox said:

Seems reasonable

SP 1  Flaherty (4x24) or Kikuchi (2x24)

RP 1 Scott (4x17) or Hoffman (3x15)

RP 2 Estevez (3x10) or Treinen (1x10)

RP 3 Martin (1x8)

or

RHB Grichuck (1x5)

This really should not be too much to ask, but I feel in my bones, it is or will be.

Not long ago, we'd be talking Burnes, Tanner Scott and Estevez, plus maybe O'Neill.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, win red sox said:

Seems reasonable

SP 1  Flaherty (4x24) or Kikuchi (2x24)

RP 1 Scott (4x17) or Hoffman (3x15)

RP 2 Estevez (3x10) or Treinen (1x10)

RP 3 Martin (1x8)

or

RHB Grichuck (1x5)

I suspect bres-slow will be looking for younger cheaper arms with more upside 

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I suspect bres-slow will be looking for younger cheaper arms with more upside 

Scott just turned 30- young for a RP.

Flaherty just turned 29, so it would have to be by trade to get much younger.

[harmony]

On 10/15/2024 at 4:12 PM, moonslav59 said:

Mayer, Abreu, Wong, Crawford & Wikelman

for

Ober (3 arbs), Ryan (3 arbs) and Jeffers (1 arb)

Would Red Sox have any interest in Minnesota closer Jhoan Durán?

The Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Jhoan Durán This Offseason - Twins - Twins Daily

TWINSDAILY.COM

---

As the offseason approaches, the Minnesota Twins face critical decisions about their roster and payroll. One intriguing question looms: should they consider trading one of their most dynamic...

 

[notin]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I suspect bres-slow will be looking for younger cheaper arms with more upside 

I think that’s what Larry is looking for.  Breslow inherited a rotation 60% comprised of those arms…

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Scott just turned 30- young for a RP.

Flaherty just turned 29, so it would have to be by trade to get much younger.

Or breed pitchers.

Sign Verlander and Scherzer for stud purposes and well grow our own!

Thats what we do down here at Breslow’s Arms Farms!

[notin]

19 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Who would even interpret a talksox post that way, except bored or bitter fans whose team isn't even in the postseason, and are just looking for something semantic to jump all over on their screens.

But if LA makes the World Series with Ryan Braiser as an opener -- taking a regular turn in the Dodgers' rotation -- it sure will make it easier for reluctant spenders to say they don't need to blow $325 million on a Yamamoto, when less than two percent of that can get you there, too.

I will say we probably don’t need a $300mill pitcher if he can be readily replaced by a discarded relief pitcher in October.  I agree there..,

[mvp 78]

17 hours ago, win red sox said:

Seems reasonable

SP 1  Flaherty (4x24) or Kikuchi (2x24)

RP 1 Scott (4x17) or Hoffman (3x15)

RP 2 Estevez (3x10) or Treinen (1x10)

RP 3 Martin (1x8)

or

RHB Grichuck (1x5)

I don't think Kikuchi is a SP1. 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, harmony said:

Would Red Sox have any interest in Minnesota closer Jhoan Durán?

The Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Jhoan Durán This Offseason - Twins - Twins Daily

TWINSDAILY.COM

---

As the offseason approaches, the Minnesota Twins face critical decisions about their roster and payroll. One intriguing question looms: should they consider trading one of their most dynamic...

 

We can give them a grab bag of David Hamilton, Josh Winckowski, Richard Fitts and Allan Castro. 

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, harmony said:

Would Red Sox have any interest in Minnesota closer Jhoan Durán?

The Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Jhoan Durán This Offseason - Twins - Twins Daily

TWINSDAILY.COM

---

As the offseason approaches, the Minnesota Twins face critical decisions about their roster and payroll. One intriguing question looms: should they consider trading one of their most dynamic...

 

Getting both arb pitchers from MN is unrealistic. Subbing JhoanD for one of them, and lessing the return package might be a more reasonable offer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Kikuchi is a SP1. 

But can Sam Kennedy convince you that adding Kikuchi, Hoffman and Treinen will make the Sox a winning club again?

With those three in '25, they could go 82-80!

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But can Sam Kennedy convince you that adding Kikuchi, Hoffman and Treinen will make the Sox a winning club again?

With those three in '25, they could go 82-80!

No, because I don't think Kikuchi is much better than Crawford or Bello. 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Getting both arb pitchers from MN is unrealistic. Subbing JhoanD for one of them, and lessing the return package might be a more reasonable offer.

If MN is cutting costs and trying to stay competitive, Lopez is the guy to move, as he is owed roughly $65mill over 3 years.

On BTV, Lopez’ surplus value is $37.4mill, surprisingly high for his contract.  This makes him a near perfect match for Kristian Campbell ($38.6mill) and that undoubtedly gets the deal done.

The obvious problem to me is I’d be hesitant to give up a MLB.com top ten prospect for Lopez’ contract.  A deal of Wilyer Abreu (whose skill set matches up nicely with the soon-to-be-departed Max Kepler) and David Hamilton fills two potential holes for them nicely and has a surplus value total ($40.8mill) slightly in the Twins’ favor.

 

But they might insist on Campbell or no deal…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not surprising: the seven best players in WAR since 2020 play today in the Final Four.

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-aaron-judge-lead-star-studded-mlb-playoffs-slate

Also, it's not surprising that all are also well-paid, earning current market value for their stardom.

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

If MN is cutting costs and trying to stay competitive, Lopez is the guy to move, as he is owed roughly $65mill over 3 years.

On BTV, Lopez’ surplus value is $37.4mill, surprisingly high for his contract.  This makes him a near perfect match for Kristian Campbell ($38.6mill) and that undoubtedly gets the deal done.

The obvious problem to me is I’d be hesitant to give up a MLB.com top ten prospect for Lopez’ contract.  A deal of Wilyer Abreu (whose skill set matches up nicely with the soon-to-be-departed Max Kepler) and David Hamilton fills two potential holes for them nicely and has a surplus value total ($40.8mill) slightly in the Twins’ favor.

 

But they might insist on Campbell or no deal…

It's probably a fair trade. I like 2023 Lopez a lot more than 2024 Lopez. My question would be what happened to him last year and is there an expectation that he's going to look more like that going forward? If so, it's a no from me dog. 

[notin]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's probably a fair trade. I like 2023 Lopez a lot more than 2024 Lopez. My question would be what happened to him last year and is there an expectation that he's going to look more like that going forward? If so, it's a no from me dog. 

I assume you mean the deal that doesn’t involve Campbell?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

On 10/13/2024 at 10:05 AM, Hugh2 said:

Shedding payroll to get under the cap wasn’t a break away from the norm.  The Sox have NEVER stayed over the cap
 

staying under the cap is the break from norm.

Or maybe it's the new norm?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

On 10/13/2024 at 7:29 PM, oldtimer said:

I have been dormant for months after seeing the Sox falter as I expected they would. I agree with Hugh to some extent. Bring up the young talent to solve the 2nd base situation and improve the outfield. The young players don't have to get gray in their beards before becoming a positive, Trade Yoshida as he is not a field player and hasn't the power to be a DH. Look to Story to fill SS. Find a RH power bat in free agency. Not from the dumpster but someone front line. If need be, move Devers to DH. Costly for the position but it improves the defense and lowers the injury risks. With the extra money, get a front line starter and a RP who can deal with pressure situations. That requires adjustments in thinking by management and also coaching but should be enough to earn us a playoff spot. I've been a fan since the 1940's but have not felt optimistic about management being either intelligent or being willing to spend on the team. Hope they prove me wrong.

If the sox don't want Yoshida because he doesn't play the field and doesn't have the power to be a DH, why would someone else want him?