A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, with his bum shoulder(s) Raffy's got virtually the same problem as Yoshida, 2025-wise. 

i figure Raffy will have surgery about the time spring training starts.

[notin]

18 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nope, with his bum shoulder(s) Raffy's got virtually the same problem as Yoshida, 2025-wise. 

Same symptoms, maybe.  But not the same problem.

Yoshida had a torn labrum.  Devers’ MRI on his shoulders taken in mid-September came back clean, and he was shut down shortly after.  Hopefully the initial diagnosis of no surgery sticks…

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

Same symptoms, maybe.  But not the same problem.

Yoshida had a torn labrum.  Devers’ MRI on his shoulders taken in mid-September came back clean, and he was shut down shortly after.  Hopefully the initial diagnosis of no surgery sticks…

My Sox pessimism is running amuck these days.

  

[Bellhorn04]

I remember AGon had shoulder surgery, and his power dipped noticeably from what it was with San Diego.

[Randy Red Sox]

i wonder who still wants the Sox to sign Flaherty as a FA this offseason?

[moonslav59]

17 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i figure Raffy will have surgery about the time spring training starts.

I never understand why this happens, so often.

The waiting.

[Randy Red Sox]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I never understand why this happens, so often.

The waiting.

that will give them the excuse to punt again on 2025

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I remember AGon had shoulder surgery, and his power dipped noticeably from what it was with San Diego.

very true but I don't think he had the same power as Raffy does

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

very true but I don't think he had the same power as Raffy does

Not sure about that. He played much of his career in pitcher's parks.

[Larry Cook]

On 10/18/2024 at 2:11 PM, mvp 78 said:

Talked about acquiring players from the Marlins and Mariners (must be done annually) ✅

trade partner #3 Pittsburgh pirates 

the pirates offense if terrible. They have three great young pitchers on their roster  and 2 more in the minors. 
we already did a trade with Pittsburgh for a high upside pitcher 

I think we can move abreau and cassas and get one of the 3 young pitchers (not named skenes) off Pittsburgh’s roster! 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

trade partner #3 Pittsburgh pirates 

the pirates offense if terrible. They have three great young pitchers on their roster  and 2 more in the minors. 
we already did a trade with Pittsburgh for a high upside pitcher 

I think we can move abreau and cassas and get one of the 3 young pitchers (not named skenes) off Pittsburgh’s roster! 

PIT may be looking to retool, but I'm not sure they want to trade another high upside, young SP'er. If they deal anyone, if might be Mitch Keller, and he might be a nice fit for the Sox. He's only 28 and is signed for 4 more years. His Lux Tax hit is only $15.4M, but PIT might look to trade him before his costs go up: $15.4>$16.9>$18.4>$20.4 by 2028.) That is cheaper than the Sox would have to pay for a top 30 or 40 pitcher.

Here are some of his numbers, since 2022 (3 seasons)

225 pitchers with 180+ IP

14th in GS (92) and IP (531)

T33 in fWAR (7.5) w Joe Ryan & Shane Bieber and within 0.1 of Monty, Darvish, Wacha & Bassitt

140 Pitchers with 250+ IP, he places...

70th in ERA- (96)

58th in xFIP at 3.92 (just above Bello, Stroman, Monty, Bibee and Manaea)

69th K-BB% at 15.2

83rd in ERA at 4.13.

I'm not sure what it would take to get him, but maybe Casas for Keller and the slumping Bednar, who has one arb left.

Maybe Abreu, DHam and Dobbins for Keller.

 

[moonslav59]

Here is a list of the top fWAR SP'ers I think might be available by trade or FA signing:

3. Sonny Gray 9.2 STL

6. George Kirby 8.5 SEA

9. Kevin Gausman 8.0 TOR

11. Pablo Lopez 7.8 MIN

T16. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell 7.2 FAs

19. Logan Gilbert 7.1 SEA

23. Tanner Bibee 6.3 CLE

25. Yusei Kikuchi 6.0 FA

28. Luis Castillo 5.7 SEA

30. Mitch Keller 5.5 PIT

T31: Joe RYan and Bailey Ober 5.4 MIN

35. Max Fried 5.2 FA

38. Nate 5.1 FA

39. Mikolas 5.0 STL

40. Flaherty 4.9 FA & Monty 4.9 AZ

43. Bryce Miller 4.7 SEA

44. Garrett Crochet 4.6 CWS

45. Chris Bassitt 4.5 TOR

 

 

[Deja Doh]

Does anyone really believe that this current team will improve over 81-81 next year without a number of very good additions?  The team need upgrades at almost all positions. 

[notin]

21 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I remember AGon had shoulder surgery, and his power dipped noticeably from what it was with San Diego.

Gonzalez had shoulder surgery in October, 2010 after a season of 31 HRs and slugged .511.   That offseason he was traded to Boston, where he hit 27 HRs and slugged .548.

[notin]

7 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

Does anyone really believe that this current team will improve over 81-81 next year without a number of very good additions?  The team need upgrades at almost all positions. 

Almost all positions? They missed the postseason by 5 games…

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here is a list of the top fWAR SP'ers I think might be available by trade or FA signing:

3. Sonny Gray 9.2 STL

6. George Kirby 8.5 SEA

9. Kevin Gausman 8.0 TOR

11. Pablo Lopez 7.8 MIN

T16. Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell 7.2 FAs

19. Logan Gilbert 7.1 SEA

23. Tanner Bibee 6.3 CLE

25. Yusei Kikuchi 6.0 FA

28. Luis Castillo 5.7 SEA

30. Mitch Keller 5.5 PIT

T31: Joe RYan and Bailey Ober 5.4 MIN

35. Max Fried 5.2 FA

38. Nate 5.1 FA

39. Mikolas 5.0 STL

40. Flaherty 4.9 FA & Monty 4.9 AZ

43. Bryce Miller 4.7 SEA

44. Garrett Crochet 4.6 CWS

45. Chris Bassitt 4.5 TOR

 

 

Those are multi-season fWARs?

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Those are multi-season fWARs?

I assume so.

Not sure what makes some of them available.  Particularly Kirby, Miller and Gilbert, as Dipoto has said he’s not trading starting pitching.  But several others as well…

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Gonzalez had shoulder surgery in October, 2010 after a season of 31 HRs and slugged .511.   That offseason he was traded to Boston, where he hit 27 HRs and slugged .548.

True.  It was 2012 when he started to really tail off.

Power expectations for him were a bit inflated I guess.  People thought if he could hit 30-40 HRs a year in San Diego, you could bump that to 35-45 in a better hitting environment.  

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I assume so.

Not sure what makes some of them available.  Particularly Kirby, Miller and Gilbert, as Dipoto has said he’s not trading starting pitching.  But several others as well…

Kirby George

Miller Bryce

Gilbert Logan

 

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Almost all positions? They missed the postseason by 5 games…

They did, thanks to the participation badge playoff format.

What seems to be a little under the radar is exactly how putrid they were after the ASB.  Even after Casas and Story returned they were putrid.  And the pitching staff was relatively healthy compared to a lot of other teams.

It really is something how low expectations have sunk that we're still somewhat upbeat after playing .420 ball for our last 2.5 months.

 

[notin]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True.  It was 2012 when he started to really tail off.

Power expectations for him were a bit inflated I guess.  People thought if he could hit 30-40 HRs a year in San Diego, you could bump that to 35-45 in a better hitting environment.  

That move was what happens when you chase Star players.  The Sox had excellent all around corner infield play with Beltre and Youkilis but went and broke it up…

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

That move was what happens when you chase Star players.  The Sox had excellent all around corner infield play with Beltre and Youkilis but went and broke it up…

That's what happens when you pick the wrong guy, yes, they undervalued Beltre badly.

Some star players do come through, like Soto.

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They did, thanks to the participation badge playoff format.

What seems to be a little under the radar is exactly how putrid they were after the ASB.  Even after Casas and Story returned they were putrid.  And the pitching staff was relatively healthy compared to a lot of other teams.

It really is something how low expectations have sunk that we're still somewhat upbeat after playing .420 ball for our last 2.5 months.

 

Fairly certain the Sox 81-81 record includes the second half.  But if you really think the .420 is reality, then I guess getting rid of Sale really was the right move.

Also whether or not you think the playoff format is bad is irrelevant; it’s the format and it’s unlikely to change.  Accept it.  Especially considering one of the three teams left was the last team in to the NL postseason…

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Fairly certain the Sox 81-81 record includes the second half.  But if you really think the .420 is reality, then I guess getting rid of Sale really was the right move.

Also whether or not you think the playoff format is bad is irrelevant; it’s the format and it’s unlikely to change.  Accept it.  Especially considering one of the three teams left was the last team in to the NL postseason…

Oh, I do accept it.  They have to max out the money.  But I'm also aware of how it rewards mediocrity.

The fact we stunk so bad for so long does make the impact of the Sale trade less painful, I readily admit.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh, I do accept it.  They have to max out the money.  But I'm also aware of how it rewards mediocrity.

The fact we stunk so bad for so long does make the impact of the Sale trade less painful, I readily admit.

 

Not to mention, that prolonged stretch still featured some very good starting pitching.  The Sox were 14th in SP fWAR for that stretch, and 11th from August 1 on.

The big problem was bullpen.  Of course, that overhaul  has already begun…

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's what happens when you pick the wrong guy, yes, they undervalued Beltre badly.

Some star players do come through, like Soto.

Avocado/Beltre was a case where the Sox had a star player and then chose to dump him in pursuit of a different star player.  Bad idea, especially since Beltre was working out..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Those are multi-season fWARs?

Yes, I meant to write 2023-2024.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I assume so.

Not sure what makes some of them available.  Particularly Kirby, Miller and Gilbert, as Dipoto has said he’s not trading starting pitching.  But several others as well…

Dipoto will listen to any trade offer.

I admit my list is rather arbitrary. I chose teams that might have a surplus of pitchers or are rebuilding, plus free agents to be.

[Randy Red Sox]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Almost all positions? They missed the postseason by 5 games…

and more than 3-4 other teams. I guess though you'd be happy with an 83-79 record and the 3rd W/C?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, notin said:

That move was what happens when you chase Star players.  

Chasing down star players has worked for the Red Sox lately. They chased down a star infielder in Colorado and a star outfielder in Japan, and have since moved from last place in 2022 and 2023 to third place in 2024.