A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Nick said:

Since Day 1, Brez has advocated for not having a fixed DH. He wants to use rotation of players.

I would prefer to start with Ref, Abreu and Romy along with 'resting' of Devers/Casas to having Yoshida as the DH. 

I rather first see Yoshida go before Abreu. Abreu will still be useful in the outfield, especially if someone gets hurt (Duran, Rafaela). Anthony should start in right. 

Everyone would rather have Abreu than Yoshida, but there are contexts needed to both ideas.

Trading Yoshida means paying almost his whole salary to play elsewhere, for maybe a far-away, long shot prospect. The plus would be adding $3-6M AAV to our winter spending budget, while opening up a 26 and 40 man roster spot for a top prospect, who may or may not hit better than his 112 OPS+.

Trading Abreu would bring back a much better return and ease the OF and LHB bottleneck, but not really add an open slot on the 26 or 40, unless we traded him for a not 40 prospect, who would surely be better than the one we might get for Yoshida. Abreu is also a plus defender, and I'm sure he'd move to DH. I could see us moving Rafaela to 4th OF'er (or platoon with Abreu.)

vs RHP: Abreu LF, Duran CF, Anthony RF

vs LHP: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Anthony RF

I'm still for the super, long-shot idea of using Casas and Devers at DH and 1B, with Devers backing up 3B, where Campbell, Grissom or Mayer start most games. (Meidroth could be extended 3B depth.)

[mvp 78]

Has Breslow openly stated that he wants to rotate through the DH position? 

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

In theory, SEA could trade Castillo for hitting and then signa FA SP'er for the same or less money, of the Sox could just sign a SP'er at Castillo's cost and keep the bats.

Seattle may enter the trade market early with deals that could impact the looming decisions on infielders Jorge Polanco, Luis Urias and Josh Rojas.

The Mariners must decide within five days after the conclusion of the World Series whether to exercise the $12 million team option (or $750,000 buyout) on Polanco for 2025.

With an approaching November deadline, Seattle must decide whether to tender contracts to Urias, with a projected 2025 salary of $5 million, and Rojas, with a projected 2025 salary of $4.3 million. 

The Mariners may well jettison all three, regardless whether replacements are acquired before the deadlines.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle may enter the trade market early with deals that could impact the looming decisions on infielders Jorge Polanco, Luis Urias and Josh Rojas.

The Mariners must decide within five days after the conclusion of the World Series whether to exercise the $12 million team option (or $750,000 buyout) on Polanco for 2025.

With an approaching November deadline, Seattle must decide whether to tender contracts to Urias, with a projected 2025 salary of $5 million, and Rojas, with a projected 2025 salary of $4.3 million. 

The Mariners may well jettison all three, regardless whether replacements are acquired before the deadlines.

 

 

 

SEA is well known for making a lot of trades, many surprising ones. I would not be surprised, if they surprise even you.

[harmony]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

SEA is well known for making a lot of trades, many surprising ones. I would not be surprised, if they surprise even you.

Last offseason the trades of Robbie Ray, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales, and the trades for Jorge Polanco, Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, were all surprising. 

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, harmony said:

Last offseason the trades of Robbie Ray, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales, and the trades for Jorge Polanco, Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger, were all surprising. 

As might a Bryce Miller or Luis Castillo one be, this winter.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Having faith it nationally and highly ranked prospects may not be misguided. Even "proven" hitters have letdowns. You go by what is expected, but it's almost always a dice roll.

I'll go by OPS+ to put some factors into the numbers:

139 Devers

129 Duran and Refsnyder (Platoon)

120 Casas

114 Abreu (PLatoon)

112 Yoshida

110 Wong (excellent for a catcher)

104 Story

99 Romy, 92 DHam,  82 Rafaela (Grissom is a career 105 OPS+ guy.)

If you count Abreu and Ref as one batter, we have 7 batters out of a 9 man batting order over 103. I'm not sure any other team had that. If a couple prospects can get to 103+, we might have 9 or 10 batters above that line.

Almost all of these batters are pre-prime or prime. Only Story might be expected to decline due to age, and some could argue, he has already decline, sharply.

Teel may not end up being a great batter, but he could easily match the catcher nrom for OPS+, after a year or two in the bigs.  Mayer may take some time to meat the norm OPS+ for a middle IF'er, but I'll guess Anthony and Campbell would probably be plus hitters for their first full year in the bigs. That would give us 9 (10, if you count Abreu and Ref separately.)

C- Wong (Teel by 2026-2027)

1B- Casas

2B- Mayer (Maybe Grissom-DHam platoon or Campbell)

SS- Story

3B- Devers

LF- Ref or Campbell

CF- Duran

RF- Abreu or Anthony

DH- Yoshida or Ref v L

Surely, we can part with 1-2 bats and still have more plus batters than most or all other teams.

I am almost certain, we trade Abreu and maybe DHam for the best pitchers we can get in return. RHBs Grissom and Campbell will be given every chance to make the 26. Anthony will take Abreu's spot on opening day, IMO.

Teel may be a year away.

Mayer will depend on health- both his and Story's.

I've been wondering, if we trade Mayer and have some faith in Campbell or the fallback of a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Of course, with no Mayer, what do we do if Story gets hurt, again? Romy? Rafaela? Eeeek!

 

 

As I posted earlier in this thread:

2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement:

Duran 32.8

Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year)

O'Neill 16.0 (free agent)

Refsnyder 9.4

Abreu 8.4

Wong 5.5

Yoshida 4.6

Hamilton 3.4

Casas 3.0

Story 0.1

Duran, Devers and O'Neill accounted for a huge share of the offense.  And the 2 hitters we're talking about removing are Duran (trading him for a pitcher) and O'Neill (free agent).

Plus there are health concerns with Devers and Yoshida.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, but I think our offense is actually pretty thin before allowing for Anthony and Campbell.

Grissom's career OPS+ is 81, BTW.

 

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As I posted earlier in this thread:

2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement:

Duran 32.8

Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year)

O'Neill 16.0 (free agent)

Refsnyder 9.4

Abreu 8.4

Wong 5.5

Yoshida 4.6

Hamilton 3.4

Casas 3.0

Story 0.1

Duran, Devers and O'Neill accounted for a huge share of the offense.  And the 2 hitters we're talking about removing are Duran (trading him for a pitcher) and O'Neill (free agent).

Plus there are health concerns with Devers and Yoshida.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, but I think our offense is actually pretty thin before allowing for Anthony and Campbell.

Grissom's career OPS+ is 81, BTW.

 

I don’t think anyone is going to trade Duran this off-season, barring the usual caveat.

O’Neill will be somewhere else.  But not Duran.

Story will (hopefully) be back, which may or may not bolster the offense.  But he represents improvement at two defensive positions, which in theory could reduce how much offense is needed. ..

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As I posted earlier in this thread:

2024 Offensive Runs Above Replacement:

Duran 32.8

Devers 22.5 (on IL at end of year)

O'Neill 16.0 (free agent)

Refsnyder 9.4

Abreu 8.4

Wong 5.5

Yoshida 4.6

Hamilton 3.4

Casas 3.0

Story 0.1

Duran, Devers and O'Neill accounted for a huge share of the offense.  And the 2 hitters we're talking about removing are Duran (trading him for a pitcher) and O'Neill (free agent).

Plus there are health concerns with Devers and Yoshida.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic, but I think our offense is actually pretty thin before allowing for Anthony and Campbell.

Grissom's career OPS+ is 81, BTW.

 

I'm not talking about removing Duran.

Some have mentioned it, but way less than other suggestions.

We have a surplus of plus batters.

[moonslav59]

IMO, we have these "plus" batters:

Duran, Casas & Devers

Abreu, Ref , Yoshida and Wong (esp compared to other catchers)

Anthony & Campbell (rookie years)

Borderline: Story, Mayer and maybe a Grissom-DHam platoon, possibly Meidroth or EValdez on a platoon, only

That's 9 with maybe 11 or 12. Most teams have 5 or 6, at best. A few have 7-8.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, we have these "plus" batters:

Duran, Casas & Devers

Abreu, Ref , Yoshida and Wong (esp compared to other catchers)

Anthony & Campbell (rookie years)

Borderline: Story, Mayer and maybe a Grissom-DHam platoon, possibly Meidroth or EValdez on a platoon, only

That's 9 with maybe 11 or 12. Most teams have 5 or 6, at best. A few have 7-8.

 

 

The Sox were 9th in runs scored this year, but they also play half their games in one of the best hitters' parks, so that has to be downgraded a bit.  We were clearly just marginally above average in run production.

The OPS+ numbers look nice, but somehow the whole was less than the sum of the parts.

Was that because of the hitting with RISP?  I'm sure that was part of it, but I think it also had to do with being #3 in baseball in Ks.

  

[harmony]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox were 9th in runs scored this year, but they also play half their games in one of the best hitters' parks, so that has to be downgraded a bit.  We were clearly just marginally above average in run production.

The OPS+ numbers look nice, but somehow the whole was less than the sum of the parts.

Was that because of the hitting with RISP?  I'm sure that was part of it, but I think it also had to do with being #3 in baseball in Ks.

  

One mystery is how the Red Sox wRC+ went from 111 on August 14 to 83 the remainder of the season to finish at 104:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Does that trend hold any significance going forward or is the late-season sample too small to be meaningful?

[Duran Is The Man]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

Seattle's starting pitching depth falls off after sixth starter Emerson Hancock, a 2020 first round pick who posted an ERA of 4.75 in 12 MLB starts this year:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners/

Taylor Dollard, the Mariners' 2022 minor league pitcher of the year, should return from Tommy John surgery while Logan Evans, their top minor league starter this season, is probably a year away.

In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the M's would likely turn to the free agent market where some pitchers might take a discount to perform in the pitching-friendly environment.

The Red Sox and Mariners each posted a team wRC+ of 104 this season; after August 15 the Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 and the Mariners a league-leading wRC+ of 118:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
This season the Red Sox received 20.3 fWAR from position players while the Mariners received 21.2 fWAR from position players:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0

The narrative that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariner need hitting is overblown.

this settles it then. the Mariners don't need to sign any bats the season nor do the Sox need to sign any arms this offseason. why would teams that consistently miss the playoffs want to improve. that's crazy talk.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox were 9th in runs scored this year, but they also play half their games in one of the best hitters' parks, so that has to be downgraded a bit.  We were clearly just marginally above average in run production.

The OPS+ numbers look nice, but somehow the whole was less than the sum of the parts.

Was that because of the hitting with RISP?  I'm sure that was part of it, but I think it also had to do with being #3 in baseball in Ks.

  

We have 3 top prospects, all good hitters knocking on the door, and even if you don't have the faith in our current batters that I do, there is no doubt we have more capable hitters than pitchers. A batter for pitcher trade seems mandatory, to me. You can say it is a surplus of mediocre or slightly better than mediocre group, but it is a surplus.

The deficit in pitching is stark. We could add a quality SP'er and 2-3 solid RP'ers and still come up short on pitching.

I do agree that our batting is not a  slam dunk plus for 2025, but if we have anything, we have too much quantity of batters, especially if 2 prospects earn a slot. At worst, we can probably trade Abreu and DHam for decent RP'ers and break even on offense with Anthony, Campbell and more from Story or Grissom or maybe Mayer/Meidroth/Romy.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have 3 top prospects, all good hitters knocking on the door, and even if you don't have the faith in our current batters that I do, there is no doubt we have more capable hitters than pitchers. A batter for pitcher trade seems mandatory, to me. You can say it is a surplus of mediocre or slightly better than mediocre group, but it is a surplus.

The deficit in pitching is stark. We could add a quality SP'er and 2-3 solid RP'ers and still come up short on pitching.

I do agree that our batting is not a  slam dunk plus for 2025, but if we have anything, we have too much quantity of batters, especially if 2 prospects earn a slot. At worst, we can probably trade Abreu and DHam for decent RP'ers and break even on offense with Anthony, Campbell and more from Story or Grissom or maybe Mayer/Meidroth/Romy.

this is not true. Harmony already said that our need for pitchers is overblown.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

this settles it then. the Mariners don't need to sign any bats the season nor do the Sox need to sign any arms this offseason. why would teams that consistently miss the playoffs want to improve. that's crazy talk.

It's not rocket science. The Sox  have more needs with pitching, and SEA has more needs with batting. That seems like the foundation for talks, but that does not mean a deal can be made. The odds are still long we make a deal with  SEA, but the odds are probably better than most other teams.

We are kicking around the Yoshida idea, and that is a real long shot, IMO. More likely they take Casas or someone else- not Yoshida.

One never knows the players a given GM covets. SEA could really like a guy like DHam or see the upside in Romy of Grissom, and shock us. Maybe they want Abreu or Mayer more than we do.

It's easy to say, "We have so and so already, but with SEA, they could trade anyone, at any moment and open a slot for Abreu or whoever.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

this is not true. Harmony already said that our need for pitchers is overblown.

"Overblown" does not mean we have no needs.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

"Overblown" does not mean we have no needs.

he said our need for pitching was "overblown".  i disagree. you don't. it's ok.

[Larry Cook]

Offseason to do list! 
 

1.) improve starting pitching 

2.) improve bullpen and depth of bullpen, 

3.) improve infield defense 

4.) cut down on the massive strikeouts 

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, harmony said:

One mystery is how the Red Sox wRC+ went from 111 on August 14 to 83 the remainder of the season to finish at 104:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

Does that trend hold any significance going forward or is the late-season sample too small to be meaningful?

It is concerning, especially because it has happened to some extent for 2-3 straight seasons, but the Devers injury was certainly one big reason for the stark drop off.

I'm not one to read a whole lot into a 6-7 week sample size, but that doesn't mean those numbers should be totally discarded.

Losing O'Neill looks worrisome, too, especially with the need for a big RHB, even when we had him, but consider this: we were 11th in runs scored in 2023, and many were complaining about how much worse we were going to be after losing our #2, 3 and 8 PA leaders who placed #4 (Duvall), #5 (Turner) and #7 (Dugo) in OPS+. (121, 119 and 103) Those 3 placed 2nd, 5th and 6th in RBI, while Turner and Dugo were 2-3 in runs scored. Nobody had much faith in O'Neill replacing Duvall and Dugo and a bunch of unproven young players being asked to play more.

We finished 9th in OPS and .748 and 16th in wRC+ at 99! The league OPS was .734.

In 2024, we saw the league OPS drop 37 points to .711, yet the Sox OPS only dropped 7 points to .741. We were ranked 7th not 9th. We moved from 16th to T10th in wRC+ at 104.

Yes, we lose O'Neill, but that seems less worrisome than Turner, Duvall and Dugo. We should also see a healthier Devers and Story, but someone will get hurt, so counting on that seems too wishful. What can be expected is the natural age curve improvement levels for almost our whole line-up plus some big opportunities for major impacts from Anthony, Campbell or Mayer.

I know I can get overly optimistic, but these guys are highly regarded by unbiased baseball people. While nothing is guaranteed, I think it is reasonable to expect an improvement, even if don't add any outside bats to the mix, except maybe a co-catcher for Wong.

Grissom is 23.

Casas and Rafaela are 24.

Abreu is 25.

DHam is 27

Devers, Duran, Wong & Romy are just entering prime at 28.

Yoshida is still in prime at 31 and Story might be close at 32. Ref is 33 but is aging well. Not a single everyday player is post prime. Other than  who we add as back-up catcher, the others on the 26 will likely be 21-23 year olds Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel or Meidroth.

I'm looking for reasons to expect decline or stagnation and all I see is losing O'Neill or more injuries than we had, this year. I don't know why that should be expected.

Tell me why we should not get better. I'm listening- really, I am.

 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he said our need for pitching was "overblown".  i disagree. you don't. it's ok.

Huh?

All I talk about is adding pitchers and usually way more than anyone else. 

I've said, other than adding a one year back-up catcher, every penny and trade resource should be spent on pitching.

If our need for pitching is overblown, I'm the overblown bandwagon driver.

My point about harnony's statement was that he thinks we are overblowing the need, but that he may not think the need is not there, at all. He just thinks we are going too extreme. He's not alone.

I mentioned adding 2 solid SP'ers and pushing Crawford to the pen, and a few posters strongly disagreed. (I said the same thing, last winter. I wanted Whitlock and Crawford in the pen.)

I want our 5-8 pen guys pushed back to AAA. That's 4 new RP"ers, and would like one to be the closer and another to be a co-8th inning guys with whoever is the best from Whitlock, Slaten or Hendriks. (the "losing" 2 would be the 7th inning guys, Crawford the long man with maybe Criswell, too.

If I was the GM, I might not be happy adding just 4 solid pitchers.

Our need is not overblown.

22 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he said our need for pitching was "overblown".  i disagree. you don't. it's ok.

 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Offseason to do list! 
 

1.) improve starting pitching 

2.) improve bullpen and depth of bullpen, 

3.) improve infield defense 

4.) cut down on the massive strikeouts 

The first 2 seem like no-brainer high needs. The second two seem more complex and might be hard to do through adding players from outside the system.

Infield defense can be greatly improved by just having a healthy Story. Perhaps, the best aspect of the 2025 roster is that Mayer may be an internal option at SS, if he does get hurt, and we won't have to rely on big K Rafaela to get 600 PAs, with half booting balls around at SS. The next solution has been discussed and is more complex: moving Devers to 1B and or DH. That will very likely not happen in 2025, but is there, if we want to do it.

A good back-up catcher could help, a lot.

On cutting down on K's. One easy way to do that would be to make Rafaela the 4th OF'er or defensive replacement and play Anthony FT. By not bringing back O'Neill, we'd lose our top K% guy at 34%. 

Casas and Story were both around 31%, so no relief there. Abreu was at 28% and should be traded. If rafaela at 26% is benched, we'd be losing 3 of our top 5 K guys from the line-up.

Our lowest K guy was Yoshida, and nobody else came close to his 12,4%. He is also the talk of trade. Duran (22%) Wong (23%) and Devers (24.5%) were the next best. All look to be starters.

This might be the best and easiest way to improve #4:

2024 Prospect K rates:

12.7% Meidroth (19% BB)

19.7% Mayer (9%)

19.9% Campbell (14%)

23.0% Teel (14%)

23.5% Anthony (15%)

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

All I talk about is adding pitchers and usually way more than anyone else. 

I've said, other than adding a one year back-up catcher, every penny and trade resource should be spent on pitching.

If our need for pitching is overblown, I'm the overblown bandwagon driver.

My point about harnony's statement was that he thinks we are overblowing the need, but that he may not think the need is not there, at all. He just thinks we are going too extreme. He's not alone.

I mentioned adding 2 solid SP'ers and pushing Crawford to the pen, and a few posters strongly disagreed. (I said the same thing, last winter. I wanted Whitlock and Crawford in the pen.)

I want our 5-8 pen guys pushed back to AAA. That's 4 new RP"ers, and would like one to be the closer and another to be a co-8th inning guys with whoever is the best from Whitlock, Slaten or Hendriks. (the "losing" 2 would be the 7th inning guys, Crawford the long man with maybe Criswell, too.

If I was the GM, I might not be happy adding just 4 solid pitchers.

Our need is not overblown.

 

i know this and totally agree with you. i just pointed out that Harmony said our need for pitching was overblown and i think he's 100% wrong. i was being facetious in one of my posts. maybe i should have made it green.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i know this and totally agree with you. i just pointed out that Harmony said our need for pitching was overblown and i think he's 100% wrong. i was being facetious in one of my posts. maybe i should have made it green.

No problem. I'm not sure green is an option.

I know we both think pitching is terribly important.

[moonslav59]

To play deveil's advocate...

As much as I see a very strong need for pitching, we did finish 11th or 12th in pitching fWAR and ERA-.

We have some young pitchers and banked on Hendriks and Fulmer as 2024 signings meant for 2025. With Gio and Whitlock returning, and a full season of Slaten, one could say we are okay, despite losing Pivetta, Jansen and Martin. Pitchers like I Campbell and others were thought to be better.

One could easily get high on Fitts and maybe Priester, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod and others.

I'm not buying this, but some numbers show our pitching is okay.

[win red sox]

One of the easiest ways to upgrade the pitching would be to sign a catcher that can actually catch.  Carson Kelly on a 3 year deal would be ideal, solid defense  and hits lhp.  Another option could be D'arnaud on a 1 year deal.  I don't think alot people understand how bad Wong is at catching specifically at framing and blocking.

[Old Red]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To play deveil's advocate...

As much as I see a very strong need for pitching, we did finish 11th or 12th in pitching fWAR and ERA-.

We have some young pitchers and banked on Hendriks and Fulmer as 2024 signings meant for 2025. With Gio and Whitlock returning, and a full season of Slaten, one could say we are okay, despite losing Pivetta, Jansen and Martin. Pitchers like I Campbell and others were thought to be better.

One could easily get high on Fitts and maybe Priester, Dobbins, Guerrero, Penrod and others.

I'm not buying this, but some numbers show our pitching is okay.

Counting on Pitchers coming off injuries, and numbers carrying over to the next season. What can go Wrong?

[notin]

13 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Sox were 9th in runs scored this year, but they also play half their games in one of the best hitters' parks, so that has to be downgraded a bit.  

  

Why?  Are the Sox moving next season?

Or does this mean maybe or pitching is pretty good after all?

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Counting on Pitchers coming off injuries, and numbers carrying over to the next season. What can go Wrong?

So now the Sox AREN’T supposed to count on pitchers coming off injury?

 

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

So now the Sox AREN’T supposed to count on pitchers coming off injury?

 

Now? Your point trying to be that Sale was coming off an injury last year. He wasn’t.