A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We have the pieces to beat anything Baltimore offers Seattle, if the correct pitcher is coming to us. 

Agreed, and it's all going to come down to the willingness to pull the trigger, and how well Brez chooses the right guys to keep.

He missed on Sale, but I do think he had some valid reasons, and 2024 was apparently not part of the "open window" period, anyway. I guess, one could argue, however, that had Brez used the $19 AAV from Gio and signed Lugo, Imanaga or Wacha and not made the Sale trade, we'd have made the playoffs and "opened the window wide."

He seemed to do okay to good on getting Slaten and Fitts. The jury is still out on Priester, Sandlin, Weissert and I Campbell.

Brez will have very little room for error, this winter and simply CANNOT have a major miss like Gio and the ATL trade. The budget JH hands him will be important, but so is how B rez uses it and his trade capital.

Get it done, Brez!

[Larry Cook]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and it's all going to come down to the willingness to pull the trigger, and how well Brez chooses the right guys to keep.

He missed on Sale, but I do think he had some valid reasons, and 2024 was apparently not part of the "open window" period, anyway. I guess, one could argue, however, that had Brez used the $19 AAV from Gio and signed Lugo, Imanaga or Wacha and not made the Sale trade, we'd have made the playoffs and "opened the window wide."

He seemed to do okay to good on getting Slaten and Fitts. The jury is still out on Priester, Sandlin, Weissert and I Campbell.

Brez will have very little room for error, this winter and simply CANNOT have a major miss like Gio and the ATL trade. The budget JH hands him will be important, but so is how B rez uses it and his trade capital.

Get it done, Brez!

Bres-slow should sign fried first and foremost, then call Seattle about Bryce miller and the brewers about Devin Williams 

[moonslav59]

I wonder if the top brass has had a sit-down on their winter strategy. If so, I would have loved to be a fly on the wall. 

Brez has had a full year to evaluate who we've had on the 26 (over 40 players) as well as gaining a better understanding of many of our prospects and their values. He's probably already determined a few players that do not fit into his philosophy. I won't pretend to know who those players are.

I also think, if Brez is going to do something bold, he's going to have to identify a player/prospect or two, who he may really like, but will have to part with to fill some key need areas we have, right now. I'm not sure who that might be, as well.

With the injury issues with Story, one could argue trading Mayer would be a huge risk. It's hard to argue with that. If both are healthy and playing well, we could probably find a slot at 2B or maybe even 3B, if Brez is bold enough to move Devers to another position.  Then there is Campbell, who could play 2B or maybe 3B of OF. Counting on him to win a middle IF role might be pushing it, so soo, We also have what could be a decent 2B platoon of Grissom and DHam, and some hopes that Romy is blooming into a nice role guy. Meidroth seems better suited for 3B, but he offers some ML depth, at SS and 2B, too. (I'm not counting Rafaela as middle IF depth, but it's hard to ignore, especially with Anthony threatening to crowd the OF more than it already is.)

The OF was our biggest plus, this year. O'Neill is a FA, but we can use Rafaela full time in the OF, and Anthony seems like the most "ready" prospect in the nation. Counting on a rookie does not ever seem like a solid plan, but in this case, maybe we will have to do just that. Duran is a lock, despite some issues vs LHPs, and his defense has taken a big jump forward to the point where he can be counted on in CF or RF. Abreu has to prove he can hit LHPs to be full-timer, and we may not be able to afford him the opportunity to do so. Refsnyder is the opposite split guy, so he matches up well with Abreu, but his defense is not good enough to play RF. That complicates an Abreu-Ref straight platoon, and one could suggest Ref platoon with Yoshida at DH, instead. Assuming no return of O'Neil, no Abreu trade and Anthony starting in Woo, we could maybe roll out this vs RHPs: Duran LF, Rafaela CF, Abreu RH and vs LHPs: Refsnyder LF, Duran CF and Rafaela in RF. I'm betting on Anthony to be a full timer, sooner rather than later. That would probably mean Abreu gets traded, but who knows? Another option might be Campbell in the OF, especially if we end up making the biggest splash of all, and trade Anthony.

With so many moving pieces, it opens up opportunities to trade almost anyone, or even a selected two players. It seems like we have no idea if any big trade will be made, nor any idea on who we trade, if we decide to get bold.

 

 

[harmony]

7 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We have the pieces to beat anything Baltimore offers Seattle, if the correct pitcher is coming to us. 

Baltimore placed five players on FanGraphs’ midseason ranking of the Top 50 trade values while the Red Sox placed none:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/

In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the Mariners are likely to seek infielders who can make an immediate impact.

[mvp 78]

7 hours ago, harmony said:

Baltimore placed five players on FanGraphs’ midseason ranking of the Top 50 trade values while the Red Sox placed none:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/

In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the Mariners are likely to seek infielders who can make an immediate impact.

Do you think they’d trade Gunnar, Adley or those guys? I don’t. Sox have prospects they’d be willing to deal that the O’s couldn’t match most likely. 

[Hugh2]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

Baltimore placed five players on FanGraphs’ midseason ranking of the Top 50 trade values while the Red Sox placed none:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/

In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the Mariners are likely to seek infielders who can make an immediate impact.

Do teams trade players based on their value 6 months ago?

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

Baltimore placed five players on FanGraphs’ midseason ranking of the Top 50 trade values while the Red Sox placed none:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/

In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the Mariners are likely to seek infielders who can make an immediate impact.

Does SEA have any other SP'ers in the pipeline that are ML ready? That could allow them to trade a SP'er for a batter or two.

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

Baltimore placed five players on FanGraphs’ midseason ranking of the Top 50 trade values while the Red Sox placed none:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-trade-value-nos-1-10/

In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the Mariners are likely to seek infielders who can make an immediate impact.

The methodology in that listing is a bit odd.  For example, Ohtani is on the list, and it shows his annual cost at $70 million, which is not the real AAV, and then there's no actual calculation of surplus value that I can see.  

It's actually opinion-based-on-some-numbers, I guess.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Do you think they’d trade Gunnar, Adley or those guys? I don’t. Sox have prospects they’d be willing to deal that the O’s couldn’t match most likely. 

Seattle needs a 3b first and foremost.  Baltimore has Jordan Westburg blocking Coby Mayo.  Boston has who?

[notin]

16 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

We have the pieces to beat anything Baltimore offers Seattle, if the correct pitcher is coming to us. 

If the Sox do have limited resources, maybe a bidding war with Baltimore to get a pitcher who may or may not even be available but isn’t so impressive away from his pitcher-friendly park isn’t the right way to go.  If you get in a bidding, do it against someone like Philly that has no prospects.

Or start looking for a SP in Miami.  Alcantara has two years $35.2 mill left of his original deal of $55mill over 5.  Historically, Miami when Miami backloads a deal, they trade away the most expensive years.  Alcantara has an elite resume but is coming off TJ.  But the risks of pitchers coming back from TJ are pretty well established, so the only risk is if Miami waits to deal him at the deadline.  

 

They will wait to trade Jesús Luzardo, who’s coming back from a lumbar fracture. He’s more of a mystery right now.  But Alcantara is unlikely to open the season in Miami…
 

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Does SEA have any other SP'ers in the pipeline that are ML ready? That could allow them to trade a SP'er for a batter or two.

Seattle's starting pitching depth falls off after sixth starter Emerson Hancock, a 2020 first round pick who posted an ERA of 4.75 in 12 MLB starts this year:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mariners/

Taylor Dollard, the Mariners' 2022 minor league pitcher of the year, should return from Tommy John surgery while Logan Evans, their top minor league starter this season, is probably a year away.

In the unlikely event Seattle trades an established starter, the M's would likely turn to the free agent market where some pitchers might take a discount to perform in the pitching-friendly environment.

The Red Sox and Mariners each posted a team wRC+ of 104 this season; after August 15 the Red Sox posted a wRC+ of 83 and the Mariners a league-leading wRC+ of 118:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=1000&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&startdate=2024-08-15&enddate=2024-11-01&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
This season the Red Sox received 20.3 fWAR from position players while the Mariners received 21.2 fWAR from position players:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0

The narrative that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariner need hitting is overblown.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Do you think they’d trade Gunnar, Adley or those guys? I don’t. Sox have prospects they’d be willing to deal that the O’s couldn’t match most likely. 

Seattle is unlikely to trade an established starter for prospects. The Mariners, who hope to contend in 2025, will probably seek an MLB-ready or established infielder.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, harmony said:

The narrative that the Red Sox need pitching and the Mariner need hitting is overblown.

Absolutely true.  The idea that the Sox have a surplus of hitting is a misguided one.

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Absolutely true.  The idea that the Sox have a surplus of hitting is a misguided one.

It’s not really misguided for Boston.  The Sox have a definite surplus with MLB position players once you factor in the MLB-ready prospects like Anthony, Campbell, and Teel.  
 

That doesn’t mean they match up so well with Seattle, however…

[Bellhorn04]

59 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s not really misguided for Boston.  The Sox have a definite surplus with MLB position players once you factor in the MLB-ready prospects like Anthony, Campbell, and Teel.

So let's trade Duran, as some have suggested.

O'Neill is a free agent, no idea if he'll be back or not.

Devers had serious shoulder problems this year.  Wouldn't be surprised if he needs surgery.

Yoshida needs surgery.

Anthony and Campbell better come in raking, huh?

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Seattle needs a 3b first and foremost.  Baltimore has Jordan Westburg blocking Coby Mayo.  Boston has who?

Mayer, Campbell, Meidroth

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Seattle is unlikely to trade an established starter for prospects. The Mariners, who hope to contend in 2025, will probably seek an MLB-ready or established infielder.

Seattle probably isn't going to trade their pitching anyway. They'll diddle around the way they always do and be a middle of the pack team for a while cause their GM only wants to get to 85 wins.

[harmony]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Seattle probably isn't going to trade their pitching anyway. They'll diddle around the way they always do and be a middle of the pack team for a while cause their GM only wants to get to 85 wins.

FWIW Seattle has averaged 88 wins in four straight winning seasons while the Red Sox next year may be prepared for their first winning season since 2021.

Each franchise has potential.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, harmony said:

FWIW Seattle has averaged 88 wins in four straight winning seasons while the Red Sox next year may be prepared for their first winning season since 2021.

Each franchise has potential.

I'm not comparing the Sox to the Mariners right now. I'm just going by what the Mariners GM has stated in public as his goal. 

"If you go back, and you look in a decade, those teams that win 54% of the time always wind up in the postseason and they more often than not wind up in a World Series, so there's your bigger picture process," Dipoto said. "Nobody wants to hear 'the goal this year is we're going win 54% of the time.' … One year, you're going to 60% and another year you're going to win 50%; it's whatever it is. But over time that type of mindset gets you there. … 

"If what you're doing is focusing year-to-year on ‘what do we have to do to win the World Series this year’ you might be one of the teams that's laying in the mud and can't get up for another decade, so we're actually doing the fan base a favor in asking for their patience to win the World Series, while we continue to build a sustainably good roster."

He believes in 54 percent and the nonsense about "sustainability" (aka being el cheapo). Because of this, I don't believe he's going to trade his starters. He'll probably wait until their final year of control and maybe even until the last trade deadline. 

[notin]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer, Campbell, Meidroth

If the Orioles offered Mayo, Meidroth isn’t a good counteroffer.  
 

The other two primarily play positions other than 3b, and very likely are worse solutions there.  Camp bell’s arm is “passable” at 3b, per SoxProspects; Mayo’s arm is considered a strength.

If Seattle want a SS or a 2b, the Sox have more to offer.  But if they want a 3b, Baltimore has the definite edge…

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

If the Orioles offered Mayo, Meidroth isn’t a good counteroffer.  
 

The other two primarily play positions other than 3b, and very likely are worse solutions there.  Camp bell’s arm is “passable” at 3b, per SoxProspects; Mayo’s arm is considered a strength.

If Seattle want a SS or a 2b, the Sox have more to offer.  But if they want a 3b, Baltimore has the definite edge…

Fine. Seattle's not trading their starters to either the Sox or O's anyway. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Fine. Seattle's not trading their starters to either the Sox or O's anyway. 

Agreed.

 

It’s odd that people harp in the importance of young, controllable SP but then also think any team that has some will readily trade it away.

If Seattle trades any SP, it will be Luis Castillo…

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

Agreed.

 

It’s odd that people harp in the importance of young, controllable SP but then also think any team that has some will readily trade it away.

If Seattle trades any SP, it will be Luis Castillo…

And according to BTV, Castillo's trade value isn't high enough to discuss in depth. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So let's trade Duran, as some have suggested.

O'Neill is a free agent, no idea if he'll be back or not.

Devers had serious shoulder problems this year.  Wouldn't be surprised if he needs surgery.

Yoshida needs surgery.

Anthony and Campbell better come in raking, huh?

 

Did Abreu die?

In the middle infield, the Sox have Hamilton, Grissom, Story, Meidroth, and Mayer.  And Romy with his hard hit potential.  They only need two starters.  (And some think Adames might be in the mix.)

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

And according to BTV, Castillo's trade value isn't high enough to discuss in depth. 

Probably.

 

I think that site undervalues him, but that’s just me.

 

Either way, if they are only dealing one starter, I would say Castillo is more likely than Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, or Woo…

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So let's trade Duran, as some have suggested.

O'Neill is a free agent, no idea if he'll be back or not.

Devers had serious shoulder problems this year.  Wouldn't be surprised if he needs surgery.

Yoshida needs surgery.

Anthony and Campbell better come in raking, huh?

 

There isn't a surplus unless the young guys can actually play. Until we know that, there's no surplus. It's just a guess. 

Duran has a lot of value in a trade, but if you realistically want to compete, he should be in CF everyday. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Probably.

 

I think that site undervalues him, but that’s just me.

 

Either way, if they are only dealing one starter, I would say Castillo is more likely than Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, or Woo…

Every offseason it's just: work out a trade with SEA, OAK or MIA. We're just playing the hits right now. I've already seen Rooker mentioned elsewhere so I don't think we need to get into it here. 

[moonslav59]

In theory, SEA could trade Castillo for hitting and then signa FA SP'er for the same or less money, of the Sox could just sign a SP'er at Castillo's cost and keep the bats.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Absolutely true.  The idea that the Sox have a surplus of hitting is a misguided one.

Having faith it nationally and highly ranked prospects may not be misguided. Even "proven" hitters have letdowns. You go by what is expected, but it's almost always a dice roll.

I'll go by OPS+ to put some factors into the numbers:

139 Devers

129 Duran and Refsnyder (Platoon)

120 Casas

114 Abreu (PLatoon)

112 Yoshida

110 Wong (excellent for a catcher)

104 Story

99 Romy, 92 DHam,  82 Rafaela (Grissom is a career 105 OPS+ guy.)

If you count Abreu and Ref as one batter, we have 7 batters out of a 9 man batting order over 103. I'm not sure any other team had that. If a couple prospects can get to 103+, we might have 9 or 10 batters above that line.

Almost all of these batters are pre-prime or prime. Only Story might be expected to decline due to age, and some could argue, he has already decline, sharply.

Teel may not end up being a great batter, but he could easily match the catcher nrom for OPS+, after a year or two in the bigs.  Mayer may take some time to meat the norm OPS+ for a middle IF'er, but I'll guess Anthony and Campbell would probably be plus hitters for their first full year in the bigs. That would give us 9 (10, if you count Abreu and Ref separately.)

C- Wong (Teel by 2026-2027)

1B- Casas

2B- Mayer (Maybe Grissom-DHam platoon or Campbell)

SS- Story

3B- Devers

LF- Ref or Campbell

CF- Duran

RF- Abreu or Anthony

DH- Yoshida or Ref v L

Surely, we can part with 1-2 bats and still have more plus batters than most or all other teams.

I am almost certain, we trade Abreu and maybe DHam for the best pitchers we can get in return. RHBs Grissom and Campbell will be given every chance to make the 26. Anthony will take Abreu's spot on opening day, IMO.

Teel may be a year away.

Mayer will depend on health- both his and Story's.

I've been wondering, if we trade Mayer and have some faith in Campbell or the fallback of a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Of course, with no Mayer, what do we do if Story gets hurt, again? Romy? Rafaela? Eeeek!

 

 

[Nick]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Having faith it nationally and highly ranked prospects may not be misguided. Even "proven" hitters have letdowns. You go by what is expected, but it's almost always a dice roll.

I'll go by OPS+ to put some factors into the numbers:

139 Devers

129 Duran and Refsnyder (Platoon)

120 Casas

114 Abreu (PLatoon)

112 Yoshida

110 Wong (excellent for a catcher)

104 Story

99 Romy, 92 DHam,  82 Rafaela (Grissom is a career 105 OPS+ guy.)

If you count Abreu and Ref as one batter, we have 7 batters out of a 9 man batting order over 103. I'm not sure any other team had that. If a couple prospects can get to 103+, we might have 9 or 10 batters above that line.

Almost all of these batters are pre-prime or prime. Only Story might be expected to decline due to age, and some could argue, he has already decline, sharply.

Teel may not end up being a great batter, but he could easily match the catcher nrom for OPS+, after a year or two in the bigs.  Mayer may take some time to meat the norm OPS+ for a middle IF'er, but I'll guess Anthony and Campbell would probably be plus hitters for their first full year in the bigs. That would give us 9 (10, if you count Abreu and Ref separately.)

C- Wong (Teel by 2026-2027)

1B- Casas

2B- Mayer (Maybe Grissom-DHam platoon or Campbell)

SS- Story

3B- Devers

LF- Ref or Campbell

CF- Duran

RF- Abreu or Anthony

DH- Yoshida or Ref v L

Surely, we can part with 1-2 bats and still have more plus batters than most or all other teams.

I am almost certain, we trade Abreu and maybe DHam for the best pitchers we can get in return. RHBs Grissom and Campbell will be given every chance to make the 26. Anthony will take Abreu's spot on opening day, IMO.

Teel may be a year away.

Mayer will depend on health- both his and Story's.

I've been wondering, if we trade Mayer and have some faith in Campbell or the fallback of a DHam-Grissom platoon at 2B. Of course, with no Mayer, what do we do if Story gets hurt, again? Romy? Rafaela? Eeeek!

 

 

Since Day 1, Brez has advocated for not having a fixed DH. He wants to use rotation of players.

I would prefer to start with Ref, Abreu and Romy along with 'resting' of Devers/Casas to having Yoshida as the DH. 

I rather first see Yoshida go before Abreu. Abreu will still be useful in the outfield, especially if someone gets hurt (Duran, Rafaela). Anthony should start in right.