Trades?

[mvp 78]

I doubt the Reds have any interest in marketing Greene. But if they do, the Sox have a pitching philosophy about avoiding 4 seam fastballs. That’s Greene’s best pitch…

 

This isn't true. If a pitcher has a FB that isn't great (Bello), they'll scrap it. If a pitcher has a plus FB, they'll keep it.

[Dipre]

The point isn't just avoiding 4-seamers. It's avoiding bad 4-seamers.

[moonslav59]

From Twins Daily, a fan site for the Minnesota Twins:

 

How Twins and Red Sox Could Match Up on an Edouard Julien Trade - Twins - Twins Daily

TWINSDAILY.COM

---

Maybe these two AL Wild Card leaders can help one another by trading from strengths to address a key shortcoming.

 

Good to see you back.

 

This does look like a possible trade, but I kinda like the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, assuming Rafaela stays at SS near FT.

[mvp 78]

Good to see you back.

 

This does look like a possible trade, but I kinda like the DHam-Romy platoon at 2B, assuming Rafaela stays at SS near FT.

 

Adding another LHB at 2B? Sox probably don't make that trade IMO. Looks like he has a swing that would like the Monster though.

[moonslav59]

Adding another LHB at 2B? Sox probably don't make that trade IMO. Looks like he has a swing that would like the Monster though.

 

I missed the fact he is a LHB.

 

Pass, although the guy is a good defender.

[moonslav59]

These might be our best targets at the deadline (2024 fWAR):

Note: this is not the list I think we might realistically make strong offers for.

 

SP

3.9 Crochet

3.4 Skubal

2.7 Fedde

2.5 Gore (not likely available)

2.3 R Olsen

2.1 Flaherty

2.0 Kikuchi

2.0 Bassitt

1.9 J Gray

1.7 Nate

1.8 Irvin

1.7 T Williams

1.6 Eflin

1.6 Gausman

1.7 Feltner (3.99 FIP)

1.4 Heaney

1.5 Littell

1.5 M Parker

1.3 Sandoval

1.3 Pepiot

1.2 T Anderson

1.3 Mize

1.0 Bradley (not likely available)

1.1 Floro

1.0 Soriano

 

SS

2.2 CJ Abrams (not likely available)

2.1 E Tovar (Good on D)

2.0 I Kiner-Falefa

1.4 Chisholm (2B)

0.9 DeJong (2B)

 

2B (see SS, too)

2.5 M Semien (not likely available)

 

 

RHB

3.0 Rooker (corner OF)

2.9 B Doyle (CF) Rafaela at SS FT in 2024.

1.5 Vlad (1B)

1.2 Roberts Jr (CF) Rafaela at SS FT in 2024.

0.4 Arozarena (LF)

 

RP

1.8 M Miller

1.4 Robertson

1.3 K Yates

 

 

Possibles on borderline sellers:

SP

2.9 L Webb (not likely available)

2.3 H Greene (not likely available)

2.5 Imanaga (not likely available)

1.8 Steele

1.7 M Keller

1.5 J Jones

1.6 N Martinez

1.5 Taillon

1.3 B Brown

1.3 Lodolo

1.2 L Ortiz

1.0 F Cruz

0.9 Leiter Jr (not likely available)

 

SS

4.4 E de la Cruz (Not likely available at age 22)

1.7 O Cruz (LHB who is not likely available at age 25)

1.2 Swanson

 

2B

2.4 India

2.0 Hoerner

 

RP

1.0 R Walker

 

RHB

2.4 M Chapman (3B, maybe 1B?)

2.4 H Ramos (OF, not likely available)

2.0 Happ (LF switch hitter)

2.0 B Reynolds (LF switch hitter)

1.4 Suzuki (RF)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I predict Breslow will add to the rotation, and the guy I pick to join Boston soon is a battle-worn 6'5, 230-lb left-hander:

 

Austin Gomber, 30, pending free agent, is the NL leader in home runs allowed. But he plays for last-place Colorado and has 1.6 WAR, which is better than any Red Sox pitcher not named Houck or Crawford. Gomber has a 4.61 ERA playing half his games at Coors, and doesn't walk batters (2.258 per 9, better than all Sox but Houck). Maybe Bailey remembers him, and has a plan.

 

Gomber may be more costly than I thought. According to his splits, his ERA is only 3.28 in the 10 games he threw to catcher Elias Diaz... and over 6.00 in the rest of his games to other catchers. So to do it right, the Sox should also insist Diaz is part of the deal. He was an All-Star last year, but also a free agent at the end of this season, so probably available...

 

This is about as high as I can raise my deadline anticipations, having survived the past half decade of the Bloom Era.

[mvp 78]

I missed the fact he is a LHB.

 

Pass, although the guy is a good defender.

 

Twins fans seem to hate the deal, so maybe it's fair? I just think they don't need to add another LHB at 2B.

[mvp 78]

I predict Breslow will add to the rotation, and the guy I pick to join Boston soon is a battle-worn 6'5, 230-lb left-hander:

 

Austin Gomber, 30, pending free agent, is the NL leader in home runs allowed. But he plays for last-place Colorado and has 1.6 WAR, which is better than any Red Sox pitcher not named Houck or Crawford. Gomber has a 4.61 ERA playing half his games at Coors, and doesn't walk batters (2.258 per 9, better than all Sox but Houck). Maybe Bailey remembers him, and has a plan.

 

Gomber may be more costly than I thought. According to his splits, his ERA is only 3.28 in the 10 games he threw to catcher Elias Diaz... and over 6.00 in the rest of his games to other catchers. So to do it right, the Sox should also insist Diaz is part of the deal. He was an All-Star last year, but also a free agent at the end of this season, so probably available...

 

This is about as high as I can raise my deadline anticipations, having survived the past half decade of the Bloom Era.

 

Gomber also has been a better pitcher at Coors than away (245 BABIP). His number 1 pitch is the 4 seamer (41%), but it has a negative run value. If he had a secondary pitch like a cutter or splitter, he could be an option, but not a very good one. I don't see it with him.

[Dipre]

Gomber also has been a better pitcher at Coors than away (245 BABIP). His number 1 pitch is the 4 seamer (41%), but it has a negative run value. If he had a secondary pitch like a cutter or splitter, he could be an option, but not a very good one. I don't see it with him.

 

There's a lot of context to be analyzed in Gomber's numbers though. Not a fan myself. Something tells me old friend Eovaldi might wind up rejoining the Red Sox.

[notin]

Gomber also has been a better pitcher at Coors than away (245 BABIP). His number 1 pitch is the 4 seamer (41%), but it has a negative run value. If he had a secondary pitch like a cutter or splitter, he could be an option, but not a very good one. I don't see it with him.

 

Dakota Hudson had similar home/away splits and Colorado flat out DFAd him…

[notin]

There's a lot of context to be analyzed in Gomber's numbers though. Not a fan myself. Something tells me old friend Eovaldi might wind up rejoining the Red Sox.

 

Texas GM Chris Young recently stated he wants Texas in position to be buyers, which puts Eovaldi’s availability in question. Eovaldi has a $20mill option that vests if he pitches 62 more IP this year, so they may be prepared to exercise that even if he comes up short…

[Dipre]

Texas GM Chris Young recently stated he wants Texas in position to be buyers, which puts Eovaldi’s availability in question. Eovaldi has a $20mill option that vests if he pitches 62 more IP this year, so they may be prepared to exercise that even if he comes up short…

 

Rangers are done IMO. And many of the sources I've read believe this is posturing by Young. But he may really believe in his club. We'll see.

[notin]

Rangers are done IMO. And many of the sources I've read believe this is posturing by Young. But he may really believe in his club. We'll see.

 

Buying or selling, he has an option with Eovaldi…

[mvp 78]

Dakota Hudson had similar home/away splits and Colorado flat out DFAd him…

 

Hudson had a better away split than home (610 Away/1006 Home). Gomber is the reverse. His metrics were even worse than Gomber's though. Wonder what Hudson would look like as just a sinker/slider/curve guy though? Three pitches all at different velo with different movement.

[mvp 78]

Buying or selling, he has an option with Eovaldi…

 

If he thinks he can compete next year, he may want to keep Eovaldi around and have that option trigger.

[moonslav59]

There's a lot of context to be analyzed in Gomber's numbers though. Not a fan myself. Something tells me old friend Eovaldi might wind up rejoining the Red Sox.

 

Maybe Heaney, who we apparently kicked the tires on, before (twice?)

 

(Bloom kicked the Eflin tires, but I'm not sure Brez thinks as highly of him.)

[moonslav59]

Rangers are done IMO. And many of the sources I've read believe this is posturing by Young. But he may really believe in his club. We'll see.

 

Texas did win 7 of 9 going into the AS break vs TBR, LAA and HOU. They have 11 games before the deadline, and they could get into the race, if they go 7-4 or better:

3 v BAL

4 v CWS

3 @ TOR

1 of 3 @STL (at deadline)

 

They are 7.5 from the last WC slot, and 5 teams are between them, including the Sox and HOU.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Heaney, who we apparently kicked the tires on, before (twice?)

 

(Bloom kicked the Eflin tires, but I'm not sure Brez thinks as highly of him.)

 

Heaney was still back in the Bloom days. He's another guy that leads with a 4 seamer that is ok, but nothing special.

[Bellhorn04]

Texas did win 7 of 9 going into the AS break vs TBR, LAA and HOU. They have 11 games before the deadline, and they could get into the race, if they go 7-4 or better:

3 v BAL

4 v CWS

3 @ TOR

1 of 3 @STL (at deadline)

 

They are 7.5 from the last WC slot, and 5 teams are between them, including the Sox and HOU.

 

5 back in the division though.

[moonslav59]

5 back in the division though.

 

And SEA is not a lock. Their run differential is +19 to Texas' +9.

[moonslav59]

Heaney was still back in the Bloom days. He's another guy that leads with a 4 seamer that is ok, but nothing special.

 

Yes, correct. My bad.

[moonslav59]

I don't have full access to the BTV site, but here are some trade values of some Sox players:

54.2 Mayer

53.2 Anthony

31.4 Teel

25.4 Abreu

20.4 Criswell

18.1 K Campbell

13.3 Bleis

12.1 Bernardino

10.5 Winckowski

8.9 Cespedes

7.0 Rafaela

5.7 O'Neill & Perales

4.2 Romero

3.8 Yorke

3.7 I Campbell

3.2 E R-C

2.7 Wikelman

2.5 Meidroth

2.3 Castro

2.1 Fitts, Monegro & Dobbins

2.0 Mullins & Jordan

1.9 Jo & Jh Garcia

1.7 Penrod

1.6 Valdez & Bastardo

1.6 Paez

1.5 Lugo

1.3 Rogers

1.1 Guerrero

0.8 Mata

-25 Yoshida

 

A few targets?

100 Skubal

58.5 Crochet

39.5 Chisholm

36.4 Roberts

33.8 C Mize

21.6 Rooker

20.9 Fedde

8.5 Flaherty

6.1 Vlad

5.3 Kikuchi

4.8 Nate

3.3 Gomber

-2.4 Canha

 

[vegasbob]

In full realization that one of the Sox needs is a RHBat , Do you budding GM's think that the Sox could move Tyler O'Neill at this point? Tyler is in a serious slump with a 42% K rate and 1 HR in his last 59 AB's over 15 games. Could he bring a steady Eddie reliever ? Or as part of a package for a starter.

 

Only a team wanting a rental RHH would be interested in O'Neill, since he's FA after the season. It's hard to see much interest from Boston to re-sign him over the winter .

 

Does Romy Gonzales's flexibility at multiple positions, including 3B, make him more valuable than any other current infielder , other than Devers ?

 

Do not expect big returns when Casas gets back on the field/batter box. I think it will take him a month of games to regain his skills at MLB speed.

[mvp 78]

In full realization that one of the Sox needs is a RHBat , Do you budding GM's think that the Sox could move Tyler O'Neill at this point? Tyler is in a serious slump with a 42% K rate and 1 HR in his last 59 AB's over 15 games. Could he bring a steady Eddie reliever ? Or as part of a package for a starter.

 

Only a team wanting a rental RHH would be interested in O'Neill, since he's FA after the season. It's hard to see much interest from Boston to re-sign him over the winter .

 

Does Romy Gonzales's flexibility at multiple positions, including 3B, make him more valuable than any other current infielder , other than Devers ?

 

Do not expect big returns when Casas gets back on the field/batter box. I think it will take him a month of games to regain his skills at MLB speed.

 

They could move him, but I don't see a reason to since they have a need at RHB. He's a streaky hitter. You have to stick it out with him.

[moonslav59]

They could move him, but I don't see a reason to since they have a need at RHB. He's a streaky hitter. You have to stick it out with him.

 

Agreed. I think he has 1 or 2 hot streaks in him.

[moonslav59]

What would it take to get Skubal?

 

He has 2 arb years left. BTV has his value at 100.

 

If JH would open his wallet, we could lessen the return package by taking on Baez's mega bum deal ($73M/2 after 2024) or someone line Canha, who will be owed $4M at the deadline, but the Baez deal is not going to be taken.

 

My guess is it would take ...

 

Anthony or Keel

+

Mayer of Campbell

+

A prospect or two from below #6.

 

or

 

Anthony, Mayer, Keel or Campbell

+

2 from Abreu (if Anthony not taken) Cespedes, Bleis, Fitts, Sandlin or Perales

[Duran Is The Man]

What would it take to get Skubal?

 

He has 2 arb years left. BTV has his value at 100.

 

If JH would open his wallet, we could lessen the return package by taking on Baez's mega bum deal ($73M/2 after 2024) or someone line Canha, who will be owed $4M at the deadline, but the Baez deal is not going to be taken.

 

My guess is it would take ...

 

Anthony or Keel

+

Mayer of Campbell

+

A prospect or two from below #6.

 

or

 

Anthony, Mayer, Keel or Campbell

+

2 from Abreu (if Anthony not taken) Cespedes, Bleis, Fitts, Sandlin or Perales

 

i'd rather buy a FA this winter than deal part of the future. of those listed, i could part with Mayer. but that's it, unless it was a lesser prospect.

[notin]

In full realization that one of the Sox needs is a RHBat , Do you budding GM's think that the Sox could move Tyler O'Neill at this point? Tyler is in a serious slump with a 42% K rate and 1 HR in his last 59 AB's over 15 games. Could he bring a steady Eddie reliever ? Or as part of a package for a starter.

 

Only a team wanting a rental RHH would be interested in O'Neill, since he's FA after the season. It's hard to see much interest from Boston to re-sign him over the winter .

 

Does Romy Gonzales's flexibility at multiple positions, including 3B, make him more valuable than any other current infielder , other than Devers ?

 

Do not expect big returns when Casas gets back on the field/batter box. I think it will take him a month of games to regain his skills at MLB speed.

 

If the plan is to move O’Neill because he isn’t hitting, what team would be interested?

 

The Sox need a RH bat. Either O’Neill is part of the solution or he’s a problem no one else would want.

 

Romy is a utility infielder whose trade value is fairly minimal. There are dozens of utility infielders available…

[notin]

If he thinks he can compete next year, he may want to keep Eovaldi around and have that option trigger.

 

 

Agreed, even if he sells off a few pieces this year…