Trades?

[moonslav59]

Finally you agree with me. I've been saying that for a month--that DD was about to break the bank at monte carlo--and that's why JH dumped him.

 

DD almost traded Betts, so there is some evidence he was doing what JH wanted, probably not liking it. He did not replace K and K, which is more evidence he might have been willing to stick around through the massive cuts, but I don’t think he liked it, at all.

 

To me, that was a source of friction. DD was not “about to break the bank,” because JH writes the checks.

 

IMO, DD would not have liked being the GM in 2020, and JH did not view DD as the type of GM with an expertise of building winners with cheap budgets and no serious farm infusions for a 5 year period.

 

That’s when JH decided to go for a GM that was thought to be good at building winners on low budgets.

 

I’m not sure what you mean by “finally” seeing it your way. This has been my opinion for over5 years and seems to differ a bit from yours.

 

I do not think DD would have spent more than bloom did, because JH would never have let him. JH actually started restricting spending shortly after the Sale and Bogey extensions and Nate re-up deal.

[notin]

Sox relief pitching: 2018- 46 saves. 20 blown saves. 2019: 33 saves. 31 blown saves. From a plus 26 to a plus 2. As usual, I will supply the facts. You will supply the spin and the " context" (aka excuses)[/QUOTe]

 

Also,

 

2018: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi combined for 579 IP

2019: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi combined for 497 IP

 

That’s a lot to ask the bullpen to make up…

[dgalehouse]

A few more facts,

 

2019 bullpen: 665 IP, 4.14 FIP/4.40 ERA, 10.5K/9, 5.6 fWAR

2018 bullpen: 561 IP, 3.90 FIP/3.72 ERA, 9.6K/9, 4.1 fWAR

 

“Spin” is looking at saves and blown saves and pretending it measures bullpen performance…

 

Saves and blown saves is an indication of games won and games lost. That is what matters the most. ERA is a gauge of effectiveness. I honestly don't know what fWAR . is. Nor do I care. But if you can save fewer games and blow more saves and have a higher ERA, and still wind up with a better fWAR , then I would have to question it's worth.

[Duran Is The Man]

"Falling in the standings" - sure, let's make it sound more dramatic than it really was. It was one bad season, no more, no less. And not as bad as some other Red Sox seasons Henry has been witnessing.

 

DD had inked Bogaerts to an extension through 2022, so that's wrong too.

 

no s***. and lets not forget DD had just led the Sox to three straight AL East titles for the FIRST TIME in history AND a WOrld Series Championship in 2018. one off year and you fire the guy. unf***ingreal. like you said, i think he's the most mercurial, egotistical POS owner since Frankensteinbrenner.

[notin]

Saves and blown saves is an indication of games won and games lost. That is what matters the most. ERA is a gauge of effectiveness. I honestly don't know what fWAR . is. Nor do I care. But if you can save fewer games and blow more saves and have a higher ERA, and still wind up with a better fWAR , then I would have to question it's worth.

 

Saves are wins but blown saves are kind of meaningless. First of all, they’re not necessarily losses. Second, you can get multiple blown saves in a game. And really, a relief pitcher can be effective but still get a blown save, thanks to inherited runners. Not to mention, a pitcher can be credited with a blown save in almost any inning and didn’t need to give up an earned run to get one. Ryan Brasier was credited with a blown save in the fifth inning when he was in Boston. How is that indicative of a win or a loss?

 

The reason that fWAR was better was the similar FIP (unless you like blaming pitchers for weak defense) over the 100+ more innings pitched. That’s a huge chunk of innings, and a big reason the 2019 team didn’t do as well. The starters were more of a problem than the bullpen that year…

[moonslav59]

Saves and blown saves is an indication of games won and games lost. That is what matters the most. ERA is a gauge of effectiveness. I honestly don't know what fWAR . is. Nor do I care. But if you can save fewer games and blow more saves and have a higher ERA, and still wind up with a better fWAR , then I would have to question it's worth.

 

You mention WAR a lot, for someone who doesn’t care.

 

In short, IP is a big factor in the total value of a pitcher or pen, as it should have value.

[Hugh2]

Also,

 

2018: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi combined for 579 IP

2019: Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi combined for 497 IP

 

That’s a lot to ask the bullpen to make up…

 

It’s pretty well known that a taxed bullpen is a less effective bullpen. And I think everyone in here would agree with that. Of course a good bullpen is also reliant on…..well a good bullpen.

[notin]

You mention WAR a lot, for someone who doesn’t care.

 

In short, IP is a big factor in the total value of a pitcher or pen, as it should have value.

 

 

There’s also a reasonable chance dgalehouse thinks all blown saves occur in the ninth inning. And are losses…

[Hugh2]

There’s also a reasonable chance dgalehouse thinks all blown saves occur in the ninth inning. And are losses…

 

Many blown saves do turn into wins, and involve relief innings where pitchers performed well.

 

There’s also high leverage relief situation in innings where you don’t have the lead.

 

All stats on their own are incomplete, and can’t tell you everything.

[Bellhorn04]

The stupidest thing about blown saves is that they include inherited runners. If you come in with a 1 run lead, bases loaded and no outs and retire the side allowing one run to score, you're credited with:

 

-A scoreless inning.

-(Anecdotally) a great job.

-A blown save.

[notin]

The stupidest thing about blown saves is that they include inherited runners. If you come in with a 1 run lead, bases loaded and no outs and retire the side allowing one run to score, you're credited with:

 

-A scoreless inning.

-(Anecdotally) a great job.

-A blown save.

 

There are so many situational examples of why blown saves carry the appropriate abbreviation of BS.

 

And even saves themselves are corrupted, because any pitcher who pitches the last 3 innings of a game without blowing a lead of any size is credited with a save…

[Hugh2]

The stupidest thing about blown saves is that they include inherited runners. If you come in with a 1 run lead, bases loaded and no outs and retire the side allowing one run to score, you're credited with:

 

-A scoreless inning.

-(Anecdotally) a great job.

-A blown save.

 

You can kind of make the argument that a blown save is a team stat

[Randy Red Sox]

how did we get to blown saves on this thread?

[Bellhorn04]

how did we get to blown saves on this thread?

 

All our threads eventually become catchall threads.

[notin]

Many blown saves do turn into wins, and involve relief innings where pitchers performed well.

 

There’s also high leverage relief situation in innings where you don’t have the lead.

 

All stats on their own are incomplete, and can’t tell you everything.

 

I went thru the game logs for the 2019 bullpen.

 

I found 29 of their blown saves. Their record in those 29 games - 13 wins 16 losses.

 

Granted, I never went thru to see if any games had multiple blown saves. That’s too much to ask.

 

But with that bullpen, a blown save is not an indicator of a loss…

[dgalehouse]

There’s also a reasonable chance dgalehouse thinks all blown saves occur in the ninth inning. And are losses…

 

Of course I know that. You don't help your argument by saying stupid stuff like that.

[Hugh2]

All our threads eventually become catchall threads.

 

That’s what happens with zero moderation.

 

There are other Sox chat forums out there where that type of conversation is kept in check and threads stay on subject.

 

Not saying one is better than the other, just what is.

[dgalehouse]

The bullpen actually pitched better in 2019, considering they were needed for about 100 more innings.

 

The big problem with the 2019 Sox was the rotation, with Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi all pitching much worse than they did in the previous season for various reasons…

 

The 2019 relief pitching was a big reason for the disappointing season. To say that it was better than the 2018 bullpen is so preposterous that I am just going to attribute that to you being a contrarian. No objective observer would ever make that statement. I don't need to rehash all of the details of the blown save rule. A blown save is not a good thing. Everyone knows that. And I certainly did say that injuries and under performance from the rotation was also a factor. End of discussion.

[notin]

The 2019 relief pitching was a big reason for the disappointing season. To say that it was better than the 2018 bullpen is so preposterous that I am just going to attribute that to you being a contrarian. No objective observer would ever make that statement. I don't need to rehash all of the details of the blown save rule. A blown save is not a good thing. Everyone knows that. And I certainly did say that injuries and under performance from the rotation was also a factor. End of discussion.

 

I agreed with the rotation stuff. I felt it was understated.

 

And sorry, the 2019 bullpen was better than the 2018. And blown saves are irrelevant towards that, as shown. Sure they were not as good at closer in 2019, but the closer is only one of 8 guys in the bullpen. Saying the bullpen is worse because of the closer is like saying the 2019 lineup is better because Brock Holt was an upgrade over Eduardo Nunez/Ian Kinsler…

[Old Red]

Of course I know that. You don't help your argument by saying stupid stuff like that.

 

He’s NN Notin🤭🙈.

[notin]

The 2019 relief pitching was a big reason for the disappointing season. To say that it was better than the 2018 bullpen is so preposterous that I am just going to attribute that to you being a contrarian. No objective observer would ever make that statement. I don't need to rehash all of the details of the blown save rule. A blown save is not a good thing. Everyone knows that. And I certainly did say that injuries and under performance from the rotation was also a factor. End of discussion.

 

Does Dombrowski count as an objective observer? Because at the trade deadline that year, he added a starter, not a reliever. Cashner did become a massive flop after starting 6 games with an ERA over 8.00 and was eventually moved to the bullpen. But if the bullpen was the obvious problem, why didn’t he add a reliever?

[Duran Is The Man]

The stupidest thing about blown saves is that they include inherited runners. If you come in with a 1 run lead, bases loaded and no outs and retire the side allowing one run to score, you're credited with:

 

-A scoreless inning.

-(Anecdotally) a great job.

-A blown save.

 

and even worse is that a relief pitcher truly can blow a save in the top of the 9th and then get credit for the win if his team comes back in the bottom of the 9th. now THAT is f***ing stupid.

[dgalehouse]

I agreed with the rotation stuff. I felt it was understated.

 

And sorry, the 2019 bullpen was better than the 2018. And blown saves are irrelevant towards that, as shown. Sure they were not as good at closer in 2019, but the closer is only one of 8 guys in the bullpen. Saying the bullpen is worse because of the closer is like saying the 2019 lineup is better because Brock Holt was an upgrade over Eduardo Nunez/Ian Kinsler…

 

Not a good analogy. Here is a better one. Saying the bullpen was better except for the closer is like saying my new car is better except for the engine. As a fan of Dombrowski, I have always criticized him for neglecting the bullpen in 2019. Both before the season, during the season and at the deadline.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

and even worse is that a relief pitcher truly can blow a save in the top of the 9th and then get credit for the win if his team comes back in the bottom of the 9th. now THAT is f***ing stupid.

 

My favorite complaint by a pitcher is when he throws a ball away, an unearned run scores, and he says he lost on a day when he had a good ERA...

 

... as if fielding your position isn't part of playing "pitcher" (if a run scores because of the pitcher, it should count as earned -- if the opposition makes him so nervous that he gags, didn't they earn that run against him?).

[Maxbialystock]

no s***. and lets not forget DD had just led the Sox to three straight AL East titles for the FIRST TIME in history AND a WOrld Series Championship in 2018. one off year and you fire the guy. unf***ingreal. like you said, i think he's the most mercurial, egotistical POS owner since Frankensteinbrenner.

 

In the movie Moneyball there is a scene near the end in which Billy Beane goes to Boston and Fenway Park to meet with John Henry, who raves about how little the A's paid (in team payroll) for each win in 2022 compared to how much the Yankees paid. He also praises sabermetrics, Bill Henry, whom he hired, and the great job Billy Beane did with the A's that season. Then JH hands Beane an offer to become the highest paid GM in MLB, which Beane later declines.

 

What we now know is that, while JH liked the notion of low-cost wins, his brain trust, including Theo Epstein, always seemed to be able to make a good case for acquiring excellent players who didn't come cheap. As a result, the Sox under JH not only ended the 86 year drought/curse, but won 3 more WS. Those 4 WS wins are the most by any MLB team, 2003-2023, and pretty strong evidence that John Henry is not as you describe him. Interestingly, three of the WS wins--2004, 2013, and 2018--all happened in part because JH or his brain trust decided to fire the manager and hire a new one. Francona, Farrell, and Cora all won the WS in their first seasons as the Sox manager.

 

I think what happened in 2019 was the John Henry, having won 4 WS, finally decided to try the route/methodology described in the movie Moneyball. And, while there is some evidence that DD had done something like that with the Florida Marlins, by 2015, when he was hired by JH, he had morphed into a CBO who who had a terrific eye for talent and and no fear in making deals to get it. Thus it was no accident that the 2018 and 2019 Boston Red Sox payrolls were both the highest in MLB.

 

To give DD his due, he has been been an effective, successful GM/CBO for 36 years and with 5 different teams and is currently doing a heckuva job with the Phillies. He won one WS with the Marlins in 1997 and one with the Sox in 2018. He led Detroit to the 2006 WS, which they lost to the Cardinals and the Phillies to the 2022 WS, which they lost to the Astros.

 

Nevertheless, it's clear JH wants to try a different direction, if only because pitchers especially are a huge gamble whose salaries are always guaranteed but never their performance. On the other hand, the Sox pitchers with the three best WAR's right now--Houck (3.4), Crawford (1.6), and Bernardino (1.6)--are all paid the minimum MLB salary.

[Bellhorn04]

To give DD his due, he has been been an effective, successful GM/CBO for 36 years and with 5 different teams and is currently doing a heckuva job with the Phillies. He won one WS with the Marlins in 1997 and one with the Sox in 2018. He led Detroit to the 2006 WS, which they lost to the Cardinals and the Phillies to the 2022 WS, which they lost to the Astros.

 

Also Detroit to the 2012 WS, which they lost to the Giants.

[Duran Is The Man]

My favorite complaint by a pitcher is when he throws a ball away, an unearned run scores, and he says he lost on a day when he had a good ERA...

 

... as if fielding your position isn't part of playing "pitcher" (if a run scores because of the pitcher, it should count as earned -- if the opposition makes him so nervous that he gags, didn't they earn that run against him?).

 

LOL....good point.

[Duran Is The Man]

In the movie Moneyball there is a scene near the end in which Billy Beane goes to Boston and Fenway Park to meet with John Henry, who raves about how little the A's paid (in team payroll) for each win in 2022 compared to how much the Yankees paid. He also praises sabermetrics, Bill Henry, whom he hired, and the great job Billy Beane did with the A's that season. Then JH hands Beane an offer to become the highest paid GM in MLB, which Beane later declines.

 

What we now know is that, while JH liked the notion of low-cost wins, his brain trust, including Theo Epstein, always seemed to be able to make a good case for acquiring excellent players who didn't come cheap. As a result, the Sox under JH not only ended the 86 year drought/curse, but won 3 more WS. Those 4 WS wins are the most by any MLB team, 2003-2023, and pretty strong evidence that John Henry is not as you describe him. Interestingly, three of the WS wins--2004, 2013, and 2018--all happened in part because JH or his brain trust decided to fire the manager and hire a new one. Francona, Farrell, and Cora all won the WS in their first seasons as the Sox manager.

 

I think what happened in 2019 was the John Henry, having won 4 WS, finally decided to try the route/methodology described in the movie Moneyball. And, while there is some evidence that DD had done something like that with the Florida Marlins, by 2015, when he was hired by JH, he had morphed into a CBO who who had a terrific eye for talent and and no fear in making deals to get it. Thus it was no accident that the 2018 and 2019 Boston Red Sox payrolls were both the highest in MLB.

 

To give DD his due, he has been been an effective, successful GM/CBO for 36 years and with 5 different teams and is currently doing a heckuva job with the Phillies. He won one WS with the Marlins in 1997 and one with the Sox in 2018. He led Detroit to the 2006 WS, which they lost to the Cardinals and the Phillies to the 2022 WS, which they lost to the Astros.

 

Nevertheless, it's clear JH wants to try a different direction, if only because pitchers especially are a huge gamble whose salaries are always guaranteed but never their performance. On the other hand, the Sox pitchers with the three best WAR's right now--Houck (3.4), Crawford (1.6), and Bernardino (1.6)--are all paid the minimum MLB salary.

 

there is no doubt Henry has made some brilliant moves since he took over, but as you pointed out, he decided to take a different route after 2019. i think that route is due to his ego, greed and incredibly poor front office decisions have made this team into a perennial cellar dweller.

[moonslav59]

Of course I know that. You don't help your argument by saying stupid stuff like that.

 

At least he names the posters.

[Elktonnick]

I think ego and greed have little to do with Henry's decision to take a different direction for the Red Sox. Rather I think it was an un emotional corporate decision made by Henry and his business partners which they think is in the best long term interests of FSG.