A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Pretty hard to top this catch by Lynn in Baltimore.

 

[moonslav59]

That's an insanely large number to ignore, that has to be somewhere around 250-300 less outs being made in todays game simply because the batter is less likely to put the ball in play.

 

I actually did the math wrong (again.) The K difference was 800 more per season when JBJ was in CF.

[moonslav59]

Pretty hard to top this catch by Lynn in Baltimore.

 

 

I love debates about defense.

[notin]

Pretty hard to top this catch by Lynn in Baltimore.

 

 

Even Mike Tauchman can do that.

 

 

Also, as I was watching the Tauchman catch, bonus points have to be awarded since it happened in the 9th inning with two outs and the tying run on base…

[Elktonnick]

Bradley wasn't the fastest, but no one I ever saw play centerfield got a better jump consistently.

 

It's also what makes Rafaela comparable. When he saved the game for Winckowski, Ceddanne immediately noted it was because of the jump he got on the ball before he ran it down. That's what makes him legit; this guy isn't outrunning misjudgments, like some other fast outfielders...

 

The best season I ever saw in CF was Lynn in '75, when spectacular catches seemed to come in the clutch all year long. He wasn't just voted AL MVP because of his bat.

Well I saw all three play. Piersall was the best defender. Lynn the best hitter and JBJ the most over rated.

[Bellhorn04]

Needless to say, it's a universal rule that you can't just say "X" and "Y" were about equally tremendous, you have to invest a huge amount of time and energy arguing which one was better.

[moonslav59]

Well I saw all three play. Piersall was the best defender. Lynn the best hitter and JBJ the most over rated.

 

Over rated on D?

[Bellhorn04]

Even Mike Tauchman can do that.

 

 

Also, as I was watching the Tauchman catch, bonus points have to be awarded since it happened in the 9th inning with two outs and the tying run on base…

 

Great catch, but he wasn't running full speed the way Lynn had to. I think the ball Lynn caught was on a lower trajectory and got out there quicker.

[Bellhorn04]

Over rated on D?

 

You're asking for a 20 post, progressively more unpleasant exchange...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even Mike Tauchman can do that.

 

 

Also, as I was watching the Tauchman catch, bonus points have to be awarded since it happened in the 9th inning with two outs and the tying run on base…

 

Lynn's best grab didn't even rob a homer, but after a long sprint into the gap he left the Earth to rob Nettles then bellyflopped to avoid being decapitated by Rice hopping over him. That catch at Shea Stadium in '75 had me yelling the loudest because it came in a tense 1-0 game vs. the hated Yankees and probably saved Bill Lee's complete game shutout over Catfish Hunter.

 

And anyone who thinks Bradley was overrated misses the entire point of his excellence. His jumps were so elite that he often made tough catches look easy -- when JBJ went into a jog, even with a long drive still 20 or 30 feet away, he knew he had it... and so did we.

[mvp 78]

Even Mike Tauchman can do that.

 

 

Also, as I was watching the Tauchman catch, bonus points have to be awarded since it happened in the 9th inning with two outs and the tying run on base…

 

Nah, Tauchman's was easier difficulty. Lynn had further to go and wall was higher.

[mvp 78]

Lynn's best grab didn't even rob a homer, but after a long sprint into the gap he left the Earth to rob Nettles then bellyflopped to avoid being decapitated by Rice hopping over him. That catch at Shea Stadium in '75 had me yelling the loudest because it came in a tense 1-0 game vs. the hated Yankees and probably saved Bill Lee's complete game shutout over Catfish Hunter.

 

And anyone who thinks Bradley was overrated misses the entire point of his excellence. His jumps were so elite that he often made tough catches look easy -- when JBJ went into a jog, even with a long drive still 20 or 30 feet away, he knew he had it... and so did we.

 

It's why Coco Crap was diving for things that were barely in the gap that JBJ would have had while on his feet. JBJ was smooth as hell. Rafaela has a little bit of those instincts and has only played the OF since 2021. In the DSL/GCL, he was a MIFer only. He's just going to get better from here on out.

[notin]

Great catch, but he wasn't running full speed the way Lynn had to. I think the ball Lynn caught was on a lower trajectory and got out there quicker.

 

Again. One run igame. In St Louis (their rival). Man on base. Two outs. Bottom of ninth.

 

It doesn’t get more clutch…

[moonslav59]

You're asking for a 20 post, progressively more unpleasant exchange...

 

As long as nobody say Kike had the best defensive season in CF for the Sox, we should be okay.

[mvp 78]

Again. One run igame. In St Louis (their rival). Man on base. Two outs. Bottom of ninth.

 

It doesn’t get more clutch…

 

Oh s***, here we go.....

[Bellhorn04]

Again. One run igame. In St Louis (their rival). Man on base. Two outs. Bottom of ninth.

 

It doesn’t get more clutch…

 

I'm fine with extra points for clutch. Benintendi had one of the great clutch plays.

[mvp 78]

As long as nobody say Kike had the best defensive season in CF for the Sox, we should be okay.

 

JBJ had higher DRS in 2014, the same DRS in 2016 and 17 but with higher OAA. After this year, Kiké's 2021 may be the 5th best CF season for the Sox since Lynn left.

[mvp 78]

I'm fine with extra points for clutch. Benintendi had one of the great clutch plays.

 

Clutch catch. Mid difficulty. I would agree with that. It's not a 10 out of 10 catch except for the moment. Easily forgettable if it's game 32 in Minnesota, unlike some of these other catches.

[Elktonnick]

Over rated on D?

Yes JBJ was never the best defensive centerfielder of his day despite winning a gold glove in 2018. Jimmy Piersall was.

[Old Red]

It's why Coco Crap was diving for things that were barely in the gap that JBJ would have had while on his feet. JBJ was smooth as hell. Rafaela has a little bit of those instincts and has only played the OF since 2021. In the DSL/GCL, he was a MIFer only. He's just going to get better from here on out.

 

I’m not overly impressed with the RAF Man yet. I see him make better catches in Portland. He hasn’t climbed any walls robbing anyone of a HR yet, but that’s probably coming.

[moonslav59]

DRS is a pretty good way to judge defense. It's been around since 2003, so there is no judging ZLynn and others.

 

Top Sox seasons in CF since 2003:

16 JBJ '14 (not even a full season!)

15 Crisp '07

14 JBJ '16

14 JBJ '17

14 Kike '21 (just 716 innings in CF!)

13 Jacoby '13

11 Mookie '15

 

UZR/150 has its flaws but is pretty good:

25.2 Crisp '07

17.1 JBJ '14

16.1 Ellsbury '11

14.3 Ellsbury '08 (546 innings)

8.8 JBJ '18

8.1 JBJ '16

3.5 JBJ '17

 

Going by old fashioned FLG% since 1972 (career w BOS)

.996 Crisp

.995 Bragg

.995 Ellsbury

.994 Lewis

.991 Damon

.991 JBJ

.991 Buford & Hatcher

.990 Betts & Kike

.989 Nichols

.987 Lynn

.986 Miller

.986 Burks

.985 Harper

 

TZ Pre DRS)

.994 Lewis

.987 Lynn

.995 Bragg

.986 Miller

.985 Tinsley

.980 Beniquez

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Yes JBJ was never the best defensive centerfielder of his day despite winning a gold glove in 2018. Jimmy Piersall was.

 

Nobody said he was the best in MLB, "in his day," so how is he "over rated?"

 

BTW, I am not arguing JBJ was better than Piersall. I have no way of knowing or even formulating an opinion on who was better.

 

I'm not even sure JBJ was the best in my time following MLB. To me, it's close between JBJ, Lynn and Crisp with Kike's sample size being too small to be included.

 

Edited April 5, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

I say we combine DRS and UZR into DUZRS.

[Old Red]

Nobody said he was the best in MLB, "in his day," so how is he "over rated?"

 

BTW, I am not arguing JBJ was better than Piersall. I have no way of knowing or even formulating an opinion on who was better.

 

I'm not even sure JBJ was the best in my time following MLB. To me, it's close between JBJ, Lynn and Crisp with Kike's sample size being too small to be included.

 

 

Kike is, and never was in the class of Lynne, or JBJ, or none of the other good to great CF small sample size, or not.🙈🤭🤮

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not overly impressed with the RAF Man yet. I see him make better catches in Portland. He hasn’t climbed any walls robbing anyone of a HR yet, but that’s probably coming.

 

Hey, that could be a new stat - % of Wall Climbing Opportunities Converted.

[Bellhorn04]

One of the most underrated important catches for the Sox, with 20/20 hindsight, was by Trot Nixon off Matsui in Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS. I don't expect most people to even remember it.

[mvp 78]

I’m not overly impressed with the RAF Man yet. I see him make better catches in Portland. He hasn’t climbed any walls robbing anyone of a HR yet, but that’s probably coming.

 

Just hasn't had the opportunity.

[mvp 78]

DRS is a pretty good way to judge defense. It's been around since 2003, so there is no judging ZLynn and others.

 

Top Sox seasons in CF since 2003:

16 JBJ '14 (not even a full season!)

15 Crisp '07

14 JBJ '16

14 JBJ '17

14 Kike '21 (just 716 innings in CF!)

13 Jacoby '13

11 Mookie '15

 

UZR/150 has its flaws but is pretty good:

25.2 Crisp '07

17.1 JBJ '14

16.1 Ellsbury '11

14.3 Ellsbury '08 (546 innings)

8.8 JBJ '18

8.1 JBJ '16

3.5 JBJ '17

 

Going by old fashioned FLG% since 1972 (career w BOS)

.996 Crisp

.995 Bragg

.995 Ellsbury

.994 Lewis

.991 Damon

.991 JBJ

.991 Buford & Hatcher

.990 Betts & Kike

.989 Nichols

.987 Lynn

.986 Miller

.986 Burks

.985 Harper

 

TZ Pre DRS)

.994 Lewis

.987 Lynn

.995 Bragg

.986 Miller

.985 Tinsley

.980 Beniquez

 

 

 

 

The Crisp numbers are bogus IMO. Fake news.

[mvp 78]

I say we combine DRS and UZR into DUZRS.

 

What about OAA?

 

OAADURSZ!

[Old Red]

Hey, that could be a new stat - % of Wall Climbing Opportunities Converted.

 

Nah, then you’d have to put in a level of difficulty like the Olympics.