A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[notin]

If he had a big year, the extension wouldn't have been much larger IMO. They are already paying him as if he can hit. He's overpaid if he doesn't figure out the bat based on other FA OFers that are good glove, bad bat.

 

But at his AAV with his versatility, he’s tradable or benchable if the bat doesn’t improve…

[Old Red]

Mayer is only hitting 830 in AA (23% k rate). That's not exactly forcing a move up the system.

 

Devers '17 in AA: 944

Betts '14 in AA: 994

 

I know Mayer has been a savior, and Golden Boy on here since he was drafted, but are you comparing him to zRaffy, and Mookie?🙈🤭

[moonslav59]

If he had a big year, the extension wouldn't have been much larger IMO. They are already paying him as if he can hit. He's overpaid if he doesn't figure out the bat based on other FA OFers that are good glove, bad bat.

 

Agreed, probably not a lot more, unless he had a monster year.

[mvp 78]

But at his AAV with his versatility, he’s tradable or benchable if the bat doesn’t improve…

 

Why have his AAV where it is early in his career when it could be below 1M? His arb years are probably set too high as well. I think it's a bad extension.

[notin]

I understand. If I'm quoting a post, it doesn't mean I'm necessarily criticizing the poster. It was just continuing the conversation about Bernardino being forced to AAA just because he had options and the worse pitcher did not.

 

I didn’t like Bernardino starting out in Worcester either, but this is one of those things that gets magnified because it’s the opening day roster. No one thought Bernardino would be down there for long, but his temporary demotion gave the Sox a chance to tryout another bullpen arm. It’s not like he was cut in favor of Rodriguez; the Sox clearly weren’t so that sold on Joely. A returning player on a minor league deal? Not exactly a high vote of confidence…

[mvp 78]

Rafaela is given a 0.3 surplus on BTV. Trade him for a AAA middle reliever?

[notin]

Why have his AAV where it is early in his career when it could be below 1M? His arb years are probably set too high as well. I think it's a bad extension.

 

I can understand that.

 

To me, I’m glad to see them extending younger players again. Yes, Rafaela might not have been the best player to start with, but I’m hoping they get better.

 

Plus there’s always the (extremely good) chance Breslow sees something in him I don’t see yet…

[mvp 78]

I know Mayer has been a savior, and Golden Boy on here since he was drafted, but are you comparing him to zRaffy, and Mookie?

 

Yes, I'm comparing him to two guys who really deserved to be pushed through the system. Mayer does not. He's been fine. He'll be promoted sometime in 2025 most likely.

[Hugh2]

Mayer is only hitting 830 in AA (23% k rate). That's not exactly forcing a move up the system.

 

Devers '17 in AA: 944

Betts '14 in AA: 994

 

 

I was thinking August, and it's hypothetical he has plenty of time, one good week could completely change his stat line. He hasn't exactly looked lost at the plate either, and he's been good the past 10 days.

 

I'm not betting on it, but I wouldn't be surprised either. It's a very plausible scenario.

[mvp 78]

I didn’t like Bernardino starting out in Worcester either, but this is one of those things that gets magnified because it’s the opening day roster. No one thought Bernardino would be down there for long, but his temporary demotion gave the Sox a chance to tryout another bullpen arm. It’s not like he was cut in favor of Rodriguez; the Sox clearly weren’t so that sold on Joely. A returning player on a minor league deal? Not exactly a high vote of confidence…

 

It's only a big deal because it's a dumb decision that happens over and over and over because control over a mediocre player matters for some reason. Like who cares?

[moonslav59]

I can understand that.

 

To me, I’m glad to see them extending younger players again. Yes, Rafaela might not have been the best player to start with, but I’m hoping they get better.

 

Plus there’s always the (extremely good) chance Breslow sees something in him I don’t see yet…

 

It's okay to swing and miss on some of these type of deals, but I have confidence in Rafaela becoming good enough on O to earn his keep.

[Old Red]

Yes, I'm comparing him to two guys who really deserved to be pushed through the system. Mayer does not. He's been fine. He'll be promoted sometime in 2025 most likely.

 

I get your point, and it wouldn’t hurt Mayer to stay most of the year in Portland at the very least.

[Hugh2]

I know Mayer has been a savior, and Golden Boy on here since he was drafted, but are you comparing him to zRaffy, and Mookie?來

 

His comparision is showing the stat line of guys who succesfuly made the move from AA to MLB and came up and helped the team in one season. He's not comparing them as players. He's literally arguing against me and I got his reference.

[mvp 78]

I can understand that.

 

To me, I’m glad to see them extending younger players again. Yes, Rafaela might not have been the best player to start with, but I’m hoping they get better.

 

Plus there’s always the (extremely good) chance Breslow sees something in him I don’t see yet…

 

I just think they are extending the wrong guys. Bello's is fine, but maybe a little high. They should extend Crawford at cheap dollars if they can. They got NO movement on Casas. Why not try to figure something out on the big 3 if they really believe in them?

[mvp 78]

It's okay to swing and miss on some of these type of deals, but I have confidence in Rafaela becoming good enough on O to earn his keep.

 

He'll earn his keep, but when you have a penny pinching owner, you can't keep overpaying the wrong players.

[Hugh2]

I just think they are extending the wrong guys. Bello's is fine, but maybe a little high. They should extend Crawford at cheap dollars if they can. They got NO movement on Casas. Why not try to figure something out on the big 3 if they really believe in them?

 

Also given what Bello got, what would Houck, and Crawford expect? especially if they continue having the seasons they're having?

[Old Red]

It's only a big deal because it's a dumb decision that happens over and over and over because control over a mediocre player matters for some reason. Like who cares?

 

Control matters a lot to some on here. I agree, and most don’t care.

[mvp 78]

I get your point, and it wouldn’t hurt Mayer to stay most of the year in Portland at the very least.

 

All Star Break then the first Uber to WOO. I think I'd go slower with Teel because of the game calling nature of the position. Anthony just isn't hitting that well right now, so he needs to turn it around.

[mvp 78]

Also given what Bello got, what would Houck, and Crawford expect? especially if they continue having the seasons they're having?

 

Houck would be for a shorter term because his FA years are sooner. I still think Crawford has a 3 ceiling at best. If he doesn't take a deal less than Bello's, you go year to year.

[Old Red]

I just think they are extending the wrong guys. Bello's is fine, but maybe a little high. They should extend Crawford at cheap dollars if they can. They got NO movement on Casas. Why not try to figure something out on the big 3 if they really believe in them?

 

Casas is going to have a good part of a lost season this year, so they should be hammering something out now. The longer it goes I don’t see things turning out very well.

[mvp 78]

His comparision is showing the stat line of guys who succesfuly made the move from AA to MLB and came up and helped the team in one season. He's not comparing them as players. He's literally arguing against me and I got his reference.

 

It's also ok to be excited about Mayer! He was injured last year and lots of people were down on him. He's showing that he really is deserving of top prospect accolades.

[mvp 78]

Casas is going to have a good part of a lost season this year, so they should be hammering something out now. The longer it goes I don’t see things turning out very well.

 

I'd keep at it especially since it's not going to affect him at the plate!

[moonslav59]

It's only a big deal because it's a dumb decision that happens over and over and over because control over a mediocre player matters for some reason. Like who cares?

 

This was really about Joely, and they got it wrong. It happens.

 

They must have seen something in him. It's not like he was on a min wage deal. None of us know what that was, but it was a mistake by Bloom in '23 and Brez in '24. Someone in the system thought he was better than this.

[mvp 78]

This was really about Joely, and they got it wrong. It happens.

 

They must have seen something in him. It's not like he was on a min wage deal. None of us know what that was, but it was a mistake by Bloom in '23 and Brez in '24. Someone in the system thought he was better than this.

 

He doesn't give up hard contact, doesn't walk anybody and doesn't throw a 4 seamer. That's a Breslow guy all day.

[mvp 78]

Joely xFIP 2.62

Bernardino xFIP 4.00

[Old Red]

This was really about Joely, and they got it wrong. It happens.

 

They must have seen something in him. It's not like he was on a min wage deal. None of us know what that was, but it was a mistake by Bloom in '23 and Brez in '24. Someone in the system thought he was better than this.

 

Way too much worry about losing him, which was needless before it turned out like it did. If it would have been the other way around, and the Bern Man didn’t have any options he would have been on the team out of ST.

[notin]

Rafaela is given a 0.3 surplus on BTV. Trade him for a AAA middle reliever?

 

To justify his salary, he really just needs to be a 1.0 fWAR player. Can he do that as a centerfielder?

[mvp 78]

To justify his salary, he really just needs to be a 1.0 fWAR player. Can he do that as a centerfielder?

 

Wrong. Just look at what he'd be paid in league minimum for the next 3 years. How much would he make the following 3 years in arbitration? 30M at most if he really really hit? So 33M for 6 years vs his current contract. It's just not worth the risk of overpaying someone for no reason when your owner doesn't want to go over the CBT.

[mvp 78]

Congrats to former Red Sox Dustan Mohr ('06):

 

Dustan Mohr, a Fort Wayne man who was an outfielder... from 2001 until 2007 and served as Northrop High School’s assistant baseball coach until about 2021, was originally charged with child solicitation, child seduction, sexual misconduct with a minor and dissemination of matter harmful to minors in August. In March, he pleaded guilty to child solicitation, child seduction and sexual misconduct with a minor in exchange for the dissemination charge being dropped. Mohr’s 14-year-old victim gave police evidence of sexually explicit text messages and photos she received from Mohr, according to a probable cause affidavit written by Allen County Sheriff’s Office Detective Nicholas Keefer. She also told police Mohr inappropriately touched her.

[illinoisredsox]

Grissom apparently is done with his Worcester rehab/spring training and will be up with the big club tomorrow. Cooper should also be added to the active roster, so two moves coming.