A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Old Red]

No, he didn't.

 

But maybe JH's message to the rest of the front office or his thinking was something like this: "I'll do this, but we're still gonna keep our total payroll out of the Top 10 and under the tax threshold."

 

Exactly, and like I said many times Raffy was the Chosen one, because he was the Last Man Standing out of the three. Some keep talking about JH spending patterns the last two decades that is Totally Irrelevant today, as JH is not the same guy,and may never be again as far as the Red Sox are concerned. JH has served his usefulness in Boston,and needs to sell,and yes Moon I’m careful what I’m wishing for.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox were somewhere between #2-#5 in payroll just 2 years ago and are now #11. Where might they be in another 2 years?

 

Maybe 6th to 12th, if I had to guess.

 

I don't think JH will ever spend like a handful of maniac owners are, now. 6th might be tops, unless some of these big spenders start wanting to reset.

 

No doubt, the big cut to the budget for 2024 sucks. I think we all are unhappy with this turn, but look at this selected group of team spending over the last few years, and determine where the biggest changes were made. (Hint: it's not cuts to the Sox budget.)

 

'24 Team 2021

308M NYM 201

307M NYY 205

250 HOU 194

245 PHI 197

232 TEX 96

230 ATL 153

228 LAD 265

227 CHC 144

226 TOR 150

197 SFG 172

183 BOS 187

 

I'm not defending the fact that we are not spending more, each year, but we are spending about the same, while others have even doubled their spending in 3 years (TEX) or gone up by 40-50% (NYM, NYY, ATL, CHC, TOR.)

 

That's 5 teams that have spent at absurd or near absurdly higher levels than just 3 years ago. I don't expect JH to match their absurdity.

 

He could, however, spend more. He could spend up to the tax line and go over by a little, every other year or 2 years in a row, from time to time. (He has done that in the past, and has often pulled back on spending to reset, sometimes staying under the line for a couple years.)

 

The tax line is $237, this year. Spenind $236M would place the Sox 5th. $226 would place us 9th. $198M would bump us up one slot, overtaking SFG for 10th.

 

The big unknown is what we will do in 2025 or 2026. Nobody knows.

 

[moonslav59]

i am of the view that Henry MIGHT use/approve the difference in salary saved to approve a trade using the money saved. Was I wrong?

 

I don't assume it, that's why I don't want to trade just to save money...and for a less promising player than Yoshi.

[moonslav59]

No, he didn't.

 

But maybe JH's message to the rest of the front office or his thinking was something like this: "I'll do this, but we're still gonna keep our total payroll out of the Top 10 and under the tax threshold."

 

JH did not spend more on Devers than any other player in Sox history?

 

What am I missing? (Inflation?)

[Old Red]

But we all know something there is a chance of - you coming back at some point in the future saying I wanted the Sox to trade for Jose Abreu. Why let a little thing like understanding the point get in the way of an opportunity to be an jackass?

 

It’s happened before. Multiple times…

 

I’m sure the NOshida- Jose Abreu trade will be announced any day now.🙈🤭🤮 NO Clue, and NO Chance!

[Bellhorn04]

JH did not spend more on Devers than any other player in Sox history?

 

What am I missing? (Inflation?)

 

Sorry, I mis-read what you said. I fixed it.

[Old Red]

JH did not spend more on Devers than any other player in Sox history?

 

What am I missing? (Inflation?)

To what JH is doing now, or will do Totally Irrelevant!Sell,Sell,Sell.

[notin]

I’m sure the NOshida- Jose Abreu trade will be announced any day now. NO Clue, and NO Chance!

 

I'm pretty sure you are the clueless one...

[moonslav59]

I'm pretty sure you are the clueless one...

 

He still can't understand the difference between saying something should happen vs saying it might happen or will happen. Then, he projects his cluelessness onto others.

[notin]

He still can't understand the difference between saying something should happen vs saying it might happen or will happen. Then, he projects his cluelessness onto others.

 

Or saying "this is probably as good as the Sox can do" vs saying something will happen...

[moonslav59]

Amazing how, despite all the major injuries, including some season long one, we are still in 3rd place and knocking on the last WC slot door.

 

The numbers of many of our 2nd stringers are horrific, so it's hard to figure out how we are doing this, except to point out our rotation has been awesome, to date.

 

The O has been carried by our catchers, O'Neill, Abreu and a few hot streaks by Duran, Ref and a couple others.

 

The pen has been a bit touch-and-go, but has mostly done a fine job.

 

The D has been the biggest thorn.

[moonslav59]

Or saying "this is probably as good as the Sox can do" vs saying something will happen...

 

...and you are "wrong," if what you think should happen, doesn't happen.

[notin]

No matter what you think about Bauer, if you think the Red Sox would even contemplate signing him, you're not really paying a lot of attention to the way stuff works in Boston. The Sox got crushed for Dermody, and he's an altar boy compared to Bauer.

 

They also brought back Cora, and one could argue Dermody is an altar boy compared to him as well. And while they did suspend Brainer Bonaci, I think he is still with the organization. At last on paper. I don't think they released him, did they?

 

But then iortiz' comment was not about why the Red Sox did not sign him; it was why no one has signed him. Especially considering that players like Aroldis Chapman and Marcell Ozuna are still playing today. And Julio Urias was retained until his second offense...

[moonslav59]

8 Sox players have 10-11 RBIs (O'Neill has 8, but he leads the team in Runs scored with 15.)

 

12 players have homered with 8 having 2 or more.

[notin]

How about Yoshida for injured SP'er Robbie Ray?

 

We could use another one of those.

 

Because:

 

1) Ray is out for the year (and probably half of next year) and therefore an upgrade over no one.

 

2) Ray has a $23mill AAV, which is about $5mill higher than Yoshida.

 

3) Ray is owed $73mill on his deal, under the very safe assumption he does not opt out after this year. That amount is more Yoshida is owed.

 

But you are on the same track with Ray in that if they move Yoshida, it will very likely have to be for another bad contract...

[moonslav59]

Because:

 

1) Ray is out for the year (and probably half of next year) and therefore an upgrade over no one.

 

2) Ray has a $23mill AAV, which is about $5mill higher than Yoshida.

 

3) Ray is owed $73mill on his deal, under the very safe assumption he does not opt out after this year. That amount is more Yoshida is owed.

 

But you are on the same track with Ray in that if they move Yoshida, it will very likely have to be for another bad contract...

 

Ray would likely give more production than Abreu.

 

I did not say it, but I was thinking the money could be evened out by SFG paying $5M a year.

[notin]

Ray would likely give more production than Abreu.

 

I did not say it, but I was thinking the money could be evened out by SFG paying $5M a year.

 

Or better yet, have the Mariners pay the money. You know, since the Giants would probably raise all sorts of questions if asked.

 

Ray might be more productive, but you also have to hold on to him longer. By the time Ray got back on the mound, Abreu's contract would be almost over.

 

So I'm not so sure paying $73mill for maybe a year and a half of Ray is necessarily a better use than paying $39mill for what is left of Abreu. And while you could lessen the pay by having the Mariners kick in some cash, you could also ask the Astros to do the same.

 

There are plenty of other bad deals the Sox could swap Yoshida for that would probably outproduce Abreu, but that doesn't mean they would be smarter trades. The Angels would definitely deal Anthony Rendon for him, for example. But he is owed $115mill through 2026 and hasn't topped 58 games since 2019. A definite pass, even if he does outproduce Abreu and the Angels kick in some serious cash...

[moonslav59]

Or better yet, have the Mariners pay the money. You know, since the Giants would probably raise all sorts of questions if asked.

 

Ray might be more productive, but you also have to hold on to him longer. By the time Ray got back on the mound, Abreu's contract would be almost over.

 

So I'm not so sure paying $73mill for maybe a year and a half of Ray is necessarily a better use than paying $39mill for what is left of Abreu. And while you could lessen the pay by having the Mariners kick in some cash, you could also ask the Astros to do the same.

 

There are plenty of other bad deals the Sox could swap Yoshida for that would probably outproduce Abreu, but that doesn't mean they would be smarter trades. The Angels would definitely deal Anthony Rendon for him, for example. But he is owed $115mill through 2026 and hasn't topped 58 games since 2019. A definite pass, even if he does outproduce Abreu and the Angels kick in some serious cash...

 

I don 't have a problem taking on a bad contract for another one. It's just Abreu is worthless. A guy like Ray will have value in 1.5 years, which is about when it looks like we might try to win, again.

[notin]

I don 't have a problem taking on a bad contract for another one. It's just Abreu is worthless. A guy like Ray will have value in 1.5 years, which is about when it looks like we might try to win, again.

 

The Sox would be better off with Abreu and having the contract/money expire after 2025, since 2026 will see first year arbitration raises for Crawford, Houck and Duran...

[notin]

The Sox would be better off with Abreu and having the contract/money expire after 2025, since 2026 will see first year arbitration raises for Crawford, Houck and Duran...

 

Also, Casas and Winckowski reach arbitration in 2026, barring extensions...

[moonslav59]

The Sox pitching staff has a .625 OPS Against. This blows me away.

 

OPS Against listed by most PAs Against:

Red= below .700

.546 Houck

.448 Crawford

.646 Bello

.616 Whitlock

.799 Wink

.706 Anderson

.358 Slaten

.625 Criswell

.819 Joely

.670 Weissert

.787 Martin

.520 Pivetta

.506 Jansen

.436 Bernardino

1.039 Campbell

.946 Booser

.944 Jacques

.000 Kelly

 

No more PAs from Jacques, going forward.

Hopefully, Campbell will be better, if he comes back.

More PAs from Pivetta, Whitlock, Bernardino and maybe Kelly could help keep these numbers down, assuming they keep doing well.

 

We have 10 RHPs pitchers with an OPS Against vs LHBs under .570. (Anderson, Wink, Weissert & Campbell do not.)

All of our LHPs have OPS Against v LHBs above .570.

 

Best K/BB

13.0 Pivetta

10.0 Joely

6.4 Houck

5.5 Slaten

5.0 Martin

3.7 Bello

3.5 Criswell

2.7 Crawford

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox would be better off with Abreu and having the contract/money expire after 2025, since 2026 will see first year arbitration raises for Crawford, Houck and Duran...

 

Again, you are assuming we use the "savings" to make a difference to our roster. I don't assume that.

[notin]

Again, you are assuming we use the "savings" to make a difference to our roster. I don't assume that.

 

If that is the case, then why would the Sox take on the larger deal of Robbie Ray in the first place? And if they did, do you think they pay arbitration raises to all of Houck, Crawford, Casas, Duran and Winckowski? If not, who goes and how does replacing that player with Robbie Ray help at all?

 

Probably also worth noting, those 5 players represent the status quo, not a difference. The Sox came to an agreement with most of their arbitration cases this past year...

Edited April 26, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

If that is the case, then why would the Sox take on the larger deal of Robbie Ray in the first place? And if they did, do you think they pay arbitration raises to all of Houck, Crawford, Casas, Duran and Winckowski? If not, who goes and how does replacing that player with Robbie Ray help at all?

 

Probably also worth noting, those 5 players represent the status quo, not a difference. The Sox came to an agreement with most of their arbitration cases this past year...

 

I seriously doubt we don't pay arb raises, this winter, unless we make the Yoshida for Abreu trade, or something like it that saves us money.

 

I agree that if trading for Ray means we have to cut others or don't sign someone else, I'm not for that deal. (I also mentioned I'd expect money to even the cost of the trade for each team.)

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe 6th to 12th, if I had to guess.

 

I don't think JH will ever spend like a handful of maniac owners are, now. 6th might be tops, unless some of these big spenders start wanting to reset.

 

No doubt, the big cut to the budget for 2024 sucks. I think we all are unhappy with this turn, but look at this selected group of team spending over the last few years, and determine where the biggest changes were made. (Hint: it's not cuts to the Sox budget.)

 

'24 Team 2021

308M NYM 201

307M NYY 205

250 HOU 194

245 PHI 197

232 TEX 96

230 ATL 153

228 LAD 265

227 CHC 144

226 TOR 150

197 SFG 172

183 BOS 187

 

I'm not defending the fact that we are not spending more, each year, but we are spending about the same, while others have even doubled their spending in 3 years (TEX) or gone up by 40-50% (NYM, NYY, ATL, CHC, TOR.)

 

That's 5 teams that have spent at absurd or near absurdly higher levels than just 3 years ago. I don't expect JH to match their absurdity.

 

He could, however, spend more. He could spend up to the tax line and go over by a little, every other year or 2 years in a row, from time to time. (He has done that in the past, and has often pulled back on spending to reset, sometimes staying under the line for a couple years.)

 

The tax line is $237, this year. Spenind $236M would place the Sox 5th. $226 would place us 9th. $198M would bump us up one slot, overtaking SFG for 10th.

 

The big unknown is what we will do in 2025 or 2026. Nobody knows.

 

 

This is hands down the most sensible presentation of pertinent facts about Sox (John Henry) spending--the most important of which is we don't know exactly what number he or his brain trust has in mind.

 

As you hint, others have been profligate in their spending, without a lot to show for it.

 

As you have also said unequivocally, DD spent a lot when he was CBO--and definitely got results with the best Sox team, 2018, in Sox history--108 wins plus 11-3 in the postseason, beating three excellent teams (Yankees, Astros, Dodgers). Two late acquisitions--JDM before the 2018 season and Eovaldi during the 2018 season--were especially useful. I personally think JDM was the key to how strong the 2018 lineup was--despite the fact that he was a sucker for a slider away by a righty pitcher. The point is, that was JH's 4th WS win and all of them were in part because he was willing to spend to get the right hitters/pitchers.

 

However, I'm convinced that the 2019 Sox convinced JH there was absolutely no limit to the amount DD would insist he needed to keep the Sox competitive. They already had the biggest payroll in MLB, and up ahead were big contracts for Mookie, Bogey, Raffy, and new arms to replace Price and Sale.

 

In that regard, let's not forget the scene in the movie Moneyball when Billy Beane meets John Henry at Fenway Park and is told JH wants to make him the highest paid GM in all sports, not just MLB, because Billy understands the value of sabermetrics. JH recites the cost per game won by the A's vs the cost per game won by the Yankees.

 

Let's also not forget that JH amassed his fortune in futures trading by employing a "trend-reversal" method.

[moonslav59]

Sox announce Rafaela to be "primary SS" going forward.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/04/red-sox-rumors-ceddanne-rafaela-everyday-shortstop.html

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Before these 2020s mostly flopping around near the cellar, the last sustained dark days came in the early 1990s, when broken-down nugatories like Jack Clark and Andre Dawson were batter versions of Kluber imitating the last gasps of John Smoltz. Then Wakefield and Nomar brought back hope until the masses were blessed with a messiah named Pedro.

 

What's the lesson? Don't waste time and money on has-beens. Develop prospects, and only chase stars in their primes. And keep signing affordable second-chance guys cut by others... some can actually help.

[moonslav59]

This is hands down the most sensible presentation of pertinent facts about Sox (John Henry) spending--the most important of which is we don't know exactly what number he or his brain trust has in mind.

 

As you hint, others have been profligate in their spending, without a lot to show for it.

 

As you have also said unequivocally, DD spent a lot when he was CBO--and definitely got results with the best Sox team, 2018, in Sox history--108 wins plus 11-3 in the postseason, beating three excellent teams (Yankees, Astros, Dodgers). Two late acquisitions--JDM before the 2018 season and Eovaldi during the 2018 season--were especially useful. I personally think JDM was the key to how strong the 2018 lineup was--despite the fact that he was a sucker for a slider away by a righty pitcher. The point is, that was JH's 4th WS win and all of them were in part because he was willing to spend to get the right hitters/pitchers.

 

However, I'm convinced that the 2019 Sox convinced JH there was absolutely no limit to the amount DD would insist he needed to keep the Sox competitive. They already had the biggest payroll in MLB, and up ahead were big contracts for Mookie, Bogey, Raffy, and new arms to replace Price and Sale.

 

In that regard, let's not forget the scene in the movie Moneyball when Billy Beane meets John Henry at Fenway Park and is told JH wants to make him the highest paid GM in all sports, not just MLB, because Billy understands the value of sabermetrics. JH recites the cost per game won by the A's vs the cost per game won by the Yankees.

 

Let's also not forget that JH amassed his fortune in futures trading by employing a "trend-reversal" method.

 

Good stuff, Max.

 

I'm not sure about where our spending will go, but JH's track record is to spend and go cheap in cycles. I'm not sure why we should expect that to stop.

 

There is certainly a logical position to take where the idea that our big 3 prospects maye be adding significant value to the 26 man roster in 1.5 to 2 years from now. Add that to a sizable core of 22-27 year olds, already on the team, who have 3+ years of team control. I can understand the thinking that holding off spending until then might be better than spending now, assuming there is an either or dynamic to the choice.

 

Of course, we can argue JH can afford to spend now and then, but he hasn't always done that, and he is the one who chooses how to spend his money.

 

I am not trying to downplay the difference in spending from 2018-2019 and the 5 years afterwards. There is a very significant difference, but we must also remember 2018-2019 was a bit of an outlier in Sox spending, too. If you take away the 4-5 owners who have gone bonkers over the last 2-3 years, it wouldn't look so comparatively awful. That doesn't change the fact that JH has gotten stingy, but the relative part of it is equally due to others going nutty.

 

I'm not going to say I expect JH to spend large, again. I've given up on that. He has had some significant spending adventures since 2019 (Devers, Story, Yoshida,) but that falls way short of the spending that began with Price and ended with that enormous 2019 budget. I'm not sure JH ever spends like that again, but it is entirely possible he goes over the tax line, at some point in the next 1-3 years. He may quickly reset, the next year, but I figure the odds be 50-50 he spends, again.

[dgalehouse]

The Red Sox are 14-12. 10-2 vs. the A's, Pirates and Angels. But just 4-10 vs. the Orioles, Guardians and Mariners. None of that is particularly surprising, shocking or amazing. There are quite a few bad teams, so you can stay respectable just by beating them. But if you want to rise above that level, at some point you have to start beating the better teams.

[moonslav59]

Before these 2020s mostly flopping around near the cellar, the last sustained dark days came in the early 1990s, when broken-down nugatories like Jack Clark and Andre Dawson were batter versions of Kluber imitating the last gasps of John Smoltz. Then Wakefield and Nomar brought back hope until the masses were blessed with a messiah named Pedro.

 

What's the lesson? Don't waste time and money on has-beens. Develop prospects, and only chase stars in their primes. And keep signing affordable second-chance guys cut by others... some can actually help.

 

Since 1967, we have not had that many periods of "flopping around near the cellar." This is what I found:

 

1980-1987: 5 of 8 seasons finishing 5th or 6th out of 7 teams. (1st in '87 and 3rd in '82)

 

1992-1993 (7th and 5th)

 

2012-2015: 3 last place finishes in 4 years (5th out of 5 teams) surrounding a ring season in 2013

 

2020-2023: 3 last place finishes in 4 years surrounding a 2nd place in '21.

 

All-in-all, that's not so bad. To me, the worst stretch was decades with no rings. I'll take last place finishes, as long as some rings are sprinkled in the mix.

 

2018 seems like a decade ago, but it's not.

 

2021 was fun. There has been precious little, otherwise.