A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Kike trade was right out of the movie Moneyball.

 

Cora kept playing him. GM finally traded him so Cora wouldn't be tempted to play Kike at short.

 

Well that's my story.

 

You're certainly not the only one who blames Cora for the Kike fiasco.

 

I'm a Cora fan so I'm biased, but I mostly blame Bloom for it. Bloom is the guy who signed Story, and Kike, and Mondesi, and could have acquired Andrus, or Iglesias.

[Bellhorn04]

With the injuries we had, I think yes.

 

I understand not thinking the same.

 

(I'm also not one who believes in the playoff crapshoot things, so that plays into my opinion to sell at the 2023 deadline, too.)

 

My recollection is that we were not in bad shape injury-wise at the 2023 deadline.

 

If you don't believe in the crapshoot after watching the 2023 postseason I don't know what you need LOL

[moonslav59]

Why can't we just acknowledge that just about anything could happen in the next 3 months?

 

Where have I said "I give up on 2024?"

 

I'm not for selling, now. If we are on pace for over 90 wins at the deadline, I doubt I will be then, either.

 

The rest of MLB teams have serious weaknesses, too. They have injuries, too or will have some.

 

We need to get some guys back and into form to have a real chance. That can happen. I've not given up.

 

Can you acknowledge, we might be in a position to sell, this deadline? If yes, why is it so bothersome to talk about it and discuss who might bring us value in return? We often discuss more pointless or mundane things than that.

[Bellhorn04]

The crapshoot is realer than real now. Just ask the Dodgers. 3 years in a row of winning 100+ and watching the Series on TV, 3 years in a row of teams with under 90 wins in the Series.

 

Arizona not only made it with 84 wins last year, they had a minus run differential in the regular season. That's ridiculous. But it's what MLB wants, apparently.

[moonslav59]

My recollection is that we were not in bad shape injury-wise at the 2023 deadline.

 

If you don't believe in the crapshoot after watching the 2023 postseason I don't know what you need LOL

 

Teams that squeak in to the playoffs do win, from time to time, and it seems more so, recently, but I still see the better teams with way better chances at winning it all or getting to the big dance.

 

It's a delicate balance to try and build for a more sustained future vs the here and now. often doing one harms the other. When odds are low, I look to the future. It's how i see it. I'm fine with people disagreeing, and I understand their views.

 

I did not think we had a big enough chance at winning in '22 or '23. I wasn't alone. Others did think we had a big enough chance to make a run at it. They were not alone.

[Old Red]

Exactly, and discussing the possibilities of selling certain players, based on where we stand before the deadline, is an age old topic.

 

It's been a contentious topic, the last few years, as we have sometimes been on the bubble of buying and selling. There have usually been two camps, except in 2020 (all wanted to sell) and 2021 (all wanted to buy.)

 

It's easy to judge in hindsight, and some might still think we could have made the playoffs in 2022 and or 2023 had we added 2-3 key players, but in hindsight, it looks like it would have taken more than that.

 

Had we gotten something for Bogey, JD, Nate, Wacha, Duvall and others, we'd likely be much better off today and going forward.

 

As we stand now, I'm not for selling. I wish we'd trade for a defensive SS, today. I had hoped we'd sign 3 SP'ers over the winter, not one.

 

We all know this team could implode, at any minute. Before the season started, there were precious few who felt this team had a snowball's chance in hell of just making the playoffs, and that was before we lost Gio and Story for the season and others for parts of the season. I think it is entirely reasonable to look ahead and discuss some what ifs.

 

Run wild, and run free, but to me the first option should want to be buyers, and not sellers, and I think it’s entirely reasonable to start there, and not the other way around, and at the end it all depends on the circumstances at the moment.

[Bellhorn04]

Where have I said "I give up on 2024?"

 

I'm not for selling, now. If we are on pace for over 90 wins at the deadline, I doubt I will be then, either.

 

The rest of MLB teams have serious weaknesses, too. They have injuries, too or will have some.

 

We need to get some guys back and into form to have a real chance. That can happen. I've not given up.

 

Can you acknowledge, we might be in a position to sell, this deadline? If yes, why is it so bothersome to talk about it and discuss who might bring us value in return? We often discuss more pointless or mundane things than that.

 

Ease up, man. I'm just jabbering like you. I'm not trying to tell you what to say, I'm just chucking my own thoughts into the mix. That question was largely a rhetorical one.

[moonslav59]

You're certainly not the only one who blames Cora for the Kike fiasco.

 

I'm a Cora fan so I'm biased, but I mostly blame Bloom for it. Bloom is the guy who signed Story, and Kike, and Mondesi, and could have acquired Andrus, or Iglesias.

 

I agree, but there was a time, when we had Reyes, when Cora even said, Kike will not be playing SS much, anymore, yet he kept playing him there.

 

That small part was on Cora.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree, but there was a time, when we had Reyes, when Cora even said, Kike will not be playing SS much, anymore, yet he kept playing him there.

 

That small part was on Cora.

 

Reyes is a below replacement level player. Bloom could have provided a better alternative.

[moonslav59]

Ease up, man. I'm just jabbering like you. I'm not trying to tell you what to say, I'm just chucking my own thoughts into the mix. That question was largely a rhetorical one.

 

Sorry for sounding acusitive.

 

The team is playing well, now. Let's enjoy this!

 

[moonslav59]

Reyes is a below replacement level player. Bloom could have provided a better alternative.

 

Agreed, but Reyes was better than Kike and ended up showing that, when he finally did play.

 

Hell, DHam would have been a better choice.

[Bellhorn04]

Teams that squeak in to the playoffs do win, from time to time, and it seems more so, recently, but I still see the better teams with way better chances at winning it all or getting to the big dance.

 

The 2023 Dodgers had a differential of +207 and got swept in 3 by Arizona, a team with a -15 differential.

 

They've turned it into an almighty crapshoot, which is appropriate considering how closely allied sports is with the gambling business now.

[moonslav59]

After last night's games, we are in a 4 way tie for the 4th best record in the AL, at 13-10 (with DET, KCR & TOR)

 

That's a 91 win pace.

 

We have some tougher teams to play, but we do have the big west coast trip out of the way, and some key players returning from injury as we head into a tougher part of our schedule. There is reason for optimism and concern, but I'm liking what I'm seeing from Brez & Bailey, so far.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed, but Reyes was better than Kike and ended up showing that, when he finally did play.

 

Hell, DHam would have been a better choice.

 

How's Reyes doing this year? He's a minus bWAR player for his career.

 

Cora was not wrong in having some doubts about him, IMHO.

 

Obviously they hoped Kike just had some temporary yips, and they also hoped he'd be a contributor on offense.

 

The Dodgers used him at shortstop after they traded for him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The crapshoot theory in the postseason gets amplified for a team using Kimbrel as closer. It turned to crap for the Phils last year, and everybody's darling Orioles will be rolling the dice this October...

 

As for the vagaries of the next three Red Sox months, if they hang in there, doesn't Breslow have to seek reinforcements -- at least for PR purposes (selling tix through the second half)?

 

If it all goes south by the end of the May, I can envision some wholesale changes by midseason, including early trades of veterans and promotions of a few minor leaguers... but not necessarily top prospects -- like Baltimore rushing Holliday (.033 with 50% K-rate in 32 PA); the O's have so many young studs actually studding right now, that move was just getting greedy.

 

One thing we can all agree on: Brez will not sit on his hands in July and get himself fired, like Bloom did.

[Bellhorn04]

When you look at what guys like Slaten, Weissert, and even Chase Anderson are doing, it speaks pretty well for the pitching evaluation guys...

[Bellhorn04]

The only thing that's making me a little nervous is the thought that John Henry is watching all this and thinking it's proof we can win on the cheap...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

When you look at what guys like Slaten, Weissert, and even Chase Anderson are doing, it speaks pretty well for the pitching evaluation guys...

 

Even Campbell, whose stuff looked sharper than them all in ST - although maybe the strain of snapping off those hard sweepers makes him the poster boy of the arms on the IL... and maybe something to watch with others, before we get an entire season-long look of the Breslow and Bailey Circus.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The only thing that's making me a little nervous is the thought that John Henry is watching all this and thinking it's proof we can win on the cheap...

 

Well, if he looks at standings, he'll see we're better than the Rays down in Boston South.

 

Tampa - the model team that had to trade a pitcher with ace-like stuff (currently outpitching his $300 million dollar teammate). It does say something that most of the big money free agents starters have been meh, while top winter trade targets like Glasnow, Burnes and Cease are rocking.

[Bellhorn04]

Even Campbell, whose stuff looked sharper than them all in ST - although maybe the strain of snapping off those hard sweepers makes him the poster boy of the arms on the IL... and maybe something to watch with others, before we get an entire season-long look of the Breslow and Bailey Circus.

 

That's gold, Jerry!

[Bellhorn04]

I wouldn't be surprised if JH has already found a way to slide a little extra cash or coupons for free yacht rides into Andrew Bailey's pay envelope...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's gold, Jerry!

 

Can't call them the "Ringer Brothers" just yet...

[Duran Is The Man]

After last night's games, we are in a 4 way tie for the 4th best record in the AL, at 13-10 (with DET, KCR & TOR)

 

That's a 91 win pace.

 

We have some tougher teams to play, but we do have the big west coast trip out of the way, and some key players returning from injury as we head into a tougher part of our schedule. There is reason for optimism and concern, but I'm liking what I'm seeing from Brez & Bailey, so far.

 

yes, the Sox are on a 91 win pace. and speaking of... the White Sox are on pace to go 22-140, cleveland 118-44 and Marcel Ozuna is on track to put up 69 HR and 208 RBI. LOL.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

yes, the Sox are on a 91 win pace. and speaking of... the White Sox are on pace to go 22-140, cleveland 118-44 and Marcel Ozuna is on track to put up 69 HR and 208 RBI. LOL.

 

It's still burly, Rooster.

 

(forgotten trivia: Red Sox former actual big league All-Star shortstop Rick Burleson was known as Burly in his early years... at least, on my vintage 1970s Red Sox painter cap bought on ebay for fi dollars)

[mvp 78]

As it turned out, sure, but who knows how much of the team's collapse was a mental one due to the lack of help/lack of commitment shown by Bloom? I believe in some of the intangibles stuff.

 

The bottom line is the 2023 team was 2-3 out of the playoffs at the deadline. Is that out of it?

 

The players that fell off after the deadline:

Masa -0.7 fWAR

Refsnyder 46 wRC+, supposed to be a great clubhouse guy

Turner 714 OPS was ok, but really just do to him being old and the season being long

Dalbec sucks anyway

Duran was injured

Wong just didn't have a good season anyway

 

The player who complained the most of all at the deadline had the highest fWAR from 8/1 - end of season: Raffy.

[mvp 78]

Is it out of it if they were 2-3 games out? Sometimes!

 

Sox lost 2 of 3 in OAK prior to the deadline and the final 3 games in July. They were going the wrong way. It seemed obvious at the time. Once they hit the September AL East heavy schedule, they were going to struggle and not be able to stay in it.

[mvp 78]

The crapshoot is realer than real now. Just ask the Dodgers. 3 years in a row of winning 100+ and watching the Series on TV, 3 years in a row of teams with under 90 wins in the Series.

 

Arizona not only made it with 84 wins last year, they had a minus run differential in the regular season. That's ridiculous. But it's what MLB wants, apparently.

 

DBags had a legit ace and another All Star starting pitcher. That helps with the CRAPSHOOT. Sox don't have either.

[mvp 78]

The 2023 Dodgers had a differential of +207 and got swept in 3 by Arizona, a team with a -15 differential.

 

They've turned it into an almighty crapshoot, which is appropriate considering how closely allied sports is with the gambling business now.

 

Dodgers had to run out Kershaw and Lance Lynn in the divisional series. Hard to win when your rotation puts those two out there in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

The 2023 Dodgers had a differential of +207 and got swept in 3 by Arizona, a team with a -15 differential.

 

They've turned it into an almighty crapshoot, which is appropriate considering how closely allied sports is with the gambling business now.

 

Recently, there has been a bigger "crapshoot" aspect to the playoffs. I agree.

 

It's not all black and white. It's not just about the best record not winning. A top 3-4 team wins more than a 5-8+ team.

 

I'm not sure if the trend will continue.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't be surprised if JH has already found a way to slide a little extra cash or coupons for free yacht rides into Andrew Bailey's pay envelope...

 

Bailey was here for the 2012 headphones fiasco. Maybe he'll be suspicious of any gifts coming his way.