A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, we're all waiting.

 

He's kind of unique, this kid. But the K/BB is unsustainable, one would think.

[mvp 78]

He's kind of unique, this kid. But the K/BB is unsustainable, one would think.

 

3rd percentile walk rate

10th percentile whiff rate

2nd percentile chase rate

3rd xWOBA

9th Av exit velo

20th k %

28th hard hit %

34th barrel %

 

You ain't got no alibi you ugly!

[moonslav59]

3rd percentile walk rate

10th percentile whiff rate

2nd percentile chase rate

3rd xWOBA

9th Av exit velo

20th k %

28th hard hit %

34th barrel %

 

You ain't got no alibi you ugly!

 

Who is this about?

[mvp 78]

Who is this about?

 

Clearly it's about Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

Sox Rankings by fangraphs:

 

2nd Pitching 9.5 fWAR (2nd xFIP, 3rd ERA-) 3rd SP 6.7/3rd RP 2.8

14th Offense +5.8 (9th in runs scored, 7th OPS, 12th wRC+)

19th Defense -11.7 (20th OAA, 11th DRS, 17th UZR/150)

 

Everyday + Pitchers fWAR totals

23.8 PHI 11.5+12.3

22.8 LAD 15.5 +7.3

22.1 NYY 15.5 +6.6

20.1 BAL 12.3+7.8

17.8 MIL 13.2+4.6

17.0 BOS 7.5+9.5

16.9 KCR 9.5+7.4

16.8 SDP 10.2+ 6.4

15.9 ATL 8.9+7.0

15.2 CLE 9.2+6.0

14.5 ARI 10.1+4.4

13.8 MIN 8.7+5.1

12.4 SEA 4.9+7.5

 

 

[moonslav59]

Clearly it's about Rafaela.

 

I couldn't find the post you were responding to, but yes, those numbers match w Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

99 games to go, and we've seen about what many expected: too many holes to overcome, but quite a few bright spots, perhaps more than many expected.

 

The emergence of Houck has been astounding. The big question is about sustainability and durability.

Crawford has come down to earth, as his earlier work was not supported by some metrics. He still looks like a decent 3-4 SP'er, going forward.

Criswell seems to be mostly smoke & mirrors, but who knows? Maybe he will be our next Pivetta- a decent 3-5 SP'er.

Pivetta has looked fine, and it's too b ad his control ends, this winter.

Our pen has really stepped up, especially with Martin not coming close to matching 2023, and Jansen struggling while still getting the job done. Hats off to Bernardino, Slaten and Weissert, most of all, but others have done well, most of the time.

 

Bello has been a disappointment, but hopefully he finds a groove and pitches like a 2-3, the rest of the way.

 

On, O & D...

Devers is on his way to a career best season, while the league wide offense has taken a hit. His D has even improved over the last 30 or so games.

Duran is proving 2023 was no fluke. Good to know.

Abreu & Rafaela have done fine, in their first full years in the bigs.

Refsnyder has blasted into space. Not sure he can keep this up, especially vs RHPs, but hell- ride the hot hand for all it's worth.

Our catchers have met my highest expectations for 2024- even beyond them. The staff's improvement since the departure of Vaz has been noticeable.

 

The Casas injury has hurt us badly. Dalbec sucked. The Cooper-DSmith combo has fallen way short of what we needed at 1B. His return is greatly needed.

The middle IF has been atrocious- both on O and D. Romy, Valdez & DHam have been an improvement over Reyes, Short, Grissom and the earlier version of EValdez, but it is still a weak spot. Grissom might be our best hope for an in-season turn-around, but who is counting on that?

Yoshida has been virtually and in reality- non existent. With Ref & O'Neill doing well, we don't need his return.

 

Overall, I see more good players than bad, but not enough great players to bring glory to 2024.

[moonslav59]

What 2 days can do to a player's numbers.

 

Looking at last 7 days OPS, we have 10 players over .830, 8 over .950 and 7 over 1.010!

 

5 players are over 1.200!, including Westbrook with just 8 PAs.

 

Last 28 Days

1.221 Valdez (22 PAs)

1.002 Devers

.872 Duran

.858 Ref

.856 Abreu

.844 DHam (WOW!)

 

OPS Against, Last 28 days:

.374 Bernardino (thanks Bloom)

.475 Houck (amazing for a SP)

.561 Pivetta (please, stay healthy)

.623 Jansen (back on track)

.661 Kelly & Booser

.693 Anderson

.706 Martin

 

.733 Slaten

.780 Bello

.787 Crawford

.802 Criswell

.881 Weissert

 

Last 2 games:

23 runs scored vs 2 Allowed

40 Hits

8 BB

7 2Bs

1 3B

6 HRs

 

Edited June 7, 2024 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

What 2 days can do to a player's numbers.

 

Looking at last 7 days OPS, we have 10 players over .830, 8 over .950 and 7 over 1.010!

 

5 players are over 1.200!, including Westbrook with just 8 PAs.

 

Last 28 Days

1.221 Valdez (22 PAs)

1.002 Devers

.872 Duran

.858 Ref

.856 Abreu

.844 DHam (WOW!)

 

OPS Against, Last 28 days:

.374 Bernardino (thanks Bloom)

.475 Houck (amazing for a SP)

.561 Pivetta (please, stay healthy)

.623 Jansen (back on track)

.661 Kelly & Booser

.693 Anderson

.706 Martin

 

.733 Slaten

.780 Bello

.787 Crawford

.802 Criswell

.881 Weissert

 

Last 2 games:

23 runs scored vs 2 Allowed

40 Hits

8 BB

7 2Bs

1 3B

6 HRs

 

 

Yes the last two games the Red Sox have beaten up on Minor League pitching. Ya Hoo!

[Randy Red Sox]

Yes the last two games the Red Sox have beaten up on Minor League pitching. Ya Hoo!

 

the sure thing is that being a White Sox fan is worse than being a Red Sox fan

[moonslav59]

the sure thing is that being a White Sox fan is worse than being a Red Sox fan

 

Talk about a mismanaged team...

[notin]

the sure thing is that being a White Sox fan is worse than being a Red Sox fan

 

The White Sox have fans?!?

 

The phrase “White Sox fan” is just used as a pleasant way to describe a Cubs Hater. (This is more true than many of you will believe.)

[Randy Red Sox]

Talk about a mismanaged team...

 

after tonight what does that say about the Red Sox??

[notin]

after tonight what does that say about the Red Sox??

 

Did you see that lineup the Sox out out there against a very good pitcher? How far down the depth chart was Jamie Westbrook at 2b when the season started? Or Hamilton at SS?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Did you see that lineup the Sox out out there against a very good pitcher? How far down the depth chart was Jamie Westbrook at 2b when the season started? Or Hamilton at SS?

 

I misread your post. I thought it said, "How far down do the depth charges go before they blow the Red Sox submersibles out of the water?"

[Bellhorn04]

Did you see that lineup the Sox out out there against a very good pitcher? How far down the depth chart was Jamie Westbrook at 2b when the season started? Or Hamilton at SS?

 

Yes, there's a reasonable explanation for losing last night. It's our record over the last 3 seasons that does kind of scream "mismanaged"...

Edited June 8, 2024 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

I misread your post. I thought it said, "How far down do the depth charges go before they blow the Red Sox submersibles out of the water?"

 

That’s what I meant to type…

[notin]

Yes, there's a reasonable explanation for losing last night. It's our record over the last 3 seasons that does kind of scream "mismanaged"...

 

Does a bad - or in those cases, mediocre - solely the result of being mismanaged?

 

If you ask me, the mismanagement started before the last few years and has had lasting effects…

[Randy Red Sox]

Did you see that lineup the Sox out out there against a very good pitcher? How far down the depth chart was Jamie Westbrook at 2b when the season started? Or Hamilton at SS?

 

so what? This is RESULTS ONLY league and after more than 1/3 of the season the Sox are nothing but a .500 team. Don't any of the AL East teams have injuries? The Yanks haven't had Cole all year, the Orioles have missed their closer all year, and the Rays have had a lot of injuries too.

[Randy Red Sox]

i watched one of my very few MLB games last night NYY vs LAD. Yamamoto is the real deal but Henry would not buck up.

[Bellhorn04]

Does a bad - or in those cases, mediocre - solely the result of being mismanaged?

 

If you ask me, the mismanagement started before the last few years and has had lasting effects…

 

Yeah, the mismanagement started in earnest when Epstein left. It's been Before Theo and After Theo.

 

After Theo we got 2 more titles, but 6 seasons under .500, going on 7.

[notin]

Yeah, the mismanagement started in earnest when Epstein left. It's been Before Theo and After Theo.

 

After Theo we got 2 more titles, but 6 seasons under .500, going on 7.

 

I didn’t think about Bloom’s last two deadlines, which were an example of mismanagement so well orchestrated, they should be used in coursework as examples of what not to do…

[notin]

so what? This is RESULTS ONLY league and after more than 1/3 of the season the Sox are nothing but a .500 team. Don't any of the AL East teams have injuries? The Yanks haven't had Cole all year, the Orioles have missed their closer all year, and the Rays have had a lot of injuries too.

 

 

I can’t agree that mismanagement is defined with “results only.” The Yankees haven’t won a single title since they signed Gerrit Cole. Does that mean it was a bad decision?

[moonslav59]

after tonight what does that say about the Red Sox??

 

One game never tells the whole story. Never.

 

If you think we are as mismanaged as the CWS, we are farther apart than I originally thought.

 

We've made a ton of mistakes, no doubt- from top to bottom.

 

I'm going to give this new management team a chance to show, if they can be good, bad or in between- just like I have all our GMs on day one.

 

Of course, if JH never opens his wallet, again, it might not matter how good Brez & Co. are, but that is the great unknown.

 

We did just see a $313M contract kick in, this year.

We did just see the largest salary given to a pitcher (Gio) since Sale.

This is the third time our player payroll has dipped 2 years in a row under JH ('04>'06 and '07>'09 were the others.) It happened twice in his first decade and once in the most recent decade ('22>'24)

 

2014 was our lowest end of year payroll since 2009 (cots.)

Since then, our end of year payroll has gone...

up

up

down '17 (-$11M)

up

down '19 (-$2M)

up

up

down '23 (-14M)

down '24 (est about $11M as we stand, now)

 

I'm not defending JH or predicting future spending, but anyone who firmly believes this is an entrenched pattern has no evidence to support that position, just as there is no evidence to prove he will spend bigly again, anytime soon or ever again.

 

Nobody knows.

 

The optimist in me says he will see (maybe in '25 or '26) that the core/foundation has improved to a place where we have a significant window of opportunity, and will open his wallet, even if just briefly or maybe without any super mega deals, to help push us over the top and to possible glory.

 

The pessimist says don't ever count on JH to spend heavily, again, especially on pitching.

 

The realist say, we can't possibly know what JH will do.

[moonslav59]

Yes, there's a reasonable explanation for losing last night. It's our record over the last 3 seasons that does kind of scream "mismanaged"...

 

No doubt, and right from the top to the GM, to the scouts who cried for Yoshida.

 

Even from the end of 2018 to the end of 2023, we were not mismanaged as badly as the CWS, who have played in a weak division for that time period.

[notin]

No doubt, and right from the top to the GM, to the scouts who cried for Yoshida.

 

Even from the end of 2018 to the end of 2023, we were not mismanaged as badly as the CWS, who have played in a weak division for that time period.

 

As much as people complain about Yoshida, can you really blame the scouts for recommending a player who had a higher OPS in Japan than Ichiro did?

[Randy Red Sox]

One game never tells the whole story. Never.

 

If you think we are as mismanaged as the CWS, we are farther apart than I originally thought.

 

We've made a ton of mistakes, no doubt- from top to bottom.

 

I'm going to give this new management team a chance to show, if they can be good, bad or in between- just like I have all our GMs on day one.

 

Of course, if JH never opens his wallet, again, it might not matter how good Brez & Co. are, but that is the great unknown.

 

We did just see a $313M contract kick in, this year.

We did just see the largest salary given to a pitcher (Gio) since Sale.

This is the third time our player payroll has dipped 2 years in a row under JH ('04>'06 and '07>'09 were the others.) It happened twice in his first decade and once in the most recent decade ('22>'24)

 

2014 was our lowest end of year payroll since 2009 (cots.)

Since then, our end of year payroll has gone...

up

up

down '17 (-$11M)

up

down '19 (-$2M)

up

up

down '23 (-14M)

down '24 (est about $11M as we stand, now)

 

I'm not defending JH or predicting future spending, but anyone who firmly believes this is an entrenched pattern has no evidence to support that position, just as there is no evidence to prove he will spend bigly again, anytime soon or ever again.

 

Nobody knows.

 

The optimist in me says he will see (maybe in '25 or '26) that the core/foundation has improved to a place where we have a significant window of opportunity, and will open his wallet, even if just briefly or maybe without any super mega deals, to help push us over the top and to possible glory.

 

The pessimist says don't ever count on JH to spend heavily, again, especially on pitching.

 

The realist say, we can't possibly know what JH will do.

 

i never said the the Sox were as badly managed as the CWS but you just chose to take it that way. PS-I watched Mookie play SS last night and he didn't look a bit out of place. Letting him bolt was the ONLY reason Devers got that extension but the $$ went to the wrong guy. Oh and Yamamoto DOMINATED the 1st place NYY last night.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, the mismanagement started in earnest when Epstein left. It's been Before Theo and After Theo.

 

After Theo we got 2 more titles, but 6 seasons under .500, going on 7.

 

Theo even admitted, he made mistakes, at the end of his tenure with BOS. It actually started a year or two before Theo left.

 

We have, however, won 2 rings in those 13-14 seasons, which is still better or equal to anyone else.

 

The last place finishes suck, badly. There is no sugar-coating that. With the money we spent, every year, even 2020, we should not ever finish last- okay maybe once. Mismanagement of the payroll given our GMs has been a major aspect of the failures. DD gets some criticism for being allowed to spend more than Ben, Bloom & Brez, but he spent almost every dollar wisely. Sure, there were some overpays and borderline bad contracts given, and there were ven a small amount of bad deals, but overall, he managed what he was given, very well, and way better than the three Bs.

 

I'm cutting Brez some slack over Gio, but he better do better, this winter, of it will look like more of the same ole-same ole.

 

It sucks being at .500, but I like our future, now, even better than during DD's last 2 years with BOS.

 

We have Story and Yoshida dragging down the budget, but in terms of future budget concerns (beyond the uncertainty of JH's budget demands,) we are better off, now. In terms of young controllable players, many who are still pre-arb or entering their first arb year in 2024 or 2025, plus a promising top 5 or 6 prospects who are near MLB ready, we are looking better, going forward, than in a long time. Even our rotation looks brighter than anytime since 2018. Not many saw that coming, including me.

 

Fans can choose to focus on the bad and the ugly. They can poo-poo the future all they want, and there is good reason to do so, but I'm excited about watching this year's team and how it can easily be a stepping stone to a very bright next 3-5 years. I'm not saying these younger players rival the Betts, Bogey, Devers, Beni, JBJ years, or that our younger player core looks better than Baltimore's or Atlanta's or maybe a couple other team's young cores, but it looks very promising, to me.

 

Yes, promising is not reality, but the promises are not based on just speculation. We are seeing several young players proving themselves, this year. It is reality, now, for more players than maybe we thought we'd see: Houck, Crawford, Casas, Duran, Abreu, Wong and even guys like Rafaela, DHam and some pen arms look better than I expected. Devers has just reached prime and is heading towards a career year. He should be fine for the 3-5 year window, I mentioned. We'll need to add a few pieces, especially in replacing Jansen, Pivetta and Martin, plus a power RH bat, and that is where the "promise" depends un the undependable JH to step up. I get this worry. It worries me, too, but I still like our core going forward:

 

C: Wong, McGuire transition to Teel

1B: Casas

2B: Grissom/ Story

SS: Sory transition to Mayer

3B: Devers

LF: Duran/Refsnyder

CF: Rafaela/Anthony

RF: Abreu/Anthony

DH: Big RH bat/Refsnyder/Duran

 

SP: _____, Houck, Crawford, Bello, Gio transition to Fitts/Perales (Criswell/Whitlock?)

RP: Hendriks, Whitlock, ______, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, Fulmer, Wink, Criswell/ Kelly/Campbell/Guerrero

[moonslav59]

As much as people complain about Yoshida, can you really blame the scouts for recommending a player who had a higher OPS in Japan than Ichiro did?

 

I'm not big on the blame game, but they did make a major mistake.

 

Is it "mismanagement?" Maybe not.

[moonslav59]

i never said the the Sox were as badly managed as the CWS but you just chose to take it that way.

 

No. You did not come out and say it, but the question you posed suggested it, or at best we might be close to being as mismanaged as the CWS.