A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

ya' know...maybe not now, but losing teams don't draw new fans like winning teams do. and like it or not, thanks to a ******** f***ing owner, the Red Sox popularity is slowly fading away. people want to root for winning teams -teams like NY, LA, PHILLY, ATL and Baltimore. they are gaining new fans. not a loser like John Henry's Sox.

 

The Rays will not gain new fans.

 

The Sox could lose half theirs and still be way ahead.

[Duran Is The Man]

The Rays will not gain new fans.

 

The Sox could lose half theirs and still be way ahead.

 

LOL....i guess that's one way to look at it. "we're a s***** team and we're losing fans but we have more fans than Tampa."

[dgalehouse]

The Sox were doing very well. They had a winning formula. Then they decided to change it. Apparently, the reason was to save the owner money. And things have gone downhill since. Is it any wonder that fans are upset ?

[moonslav59]

The Sox were doing very well. They had a winning formula. Then they decided to change it. Apparently, the reason was to save the owner money. And things have gone downhill since. Is it any wonder that fans are upset ?

 

We did finish in last place 3 of 4 years before DD.

 

The formula before DD was spend and then cut, spend and then cut.

 

It hasn't changed.

[Old Red]

We did finish in last place 3 of 4 years before DD.

 

The formula before DD was spend and then cut, spend and then cut.

 

It hasn't changed.

 

IT HAS CHANGED! You been spewing the JH spending habits for the last three years now that I know about, because you still think JH is still the same guy who went on the Felger, and Mazz show to defend the Red Sox, and was in on the high priced FA back then. You actually still think he’s the same JH today, and I believe your 100% wrong, so keep on thinking what you want, and be wrong again.. The Old JH days I believe are long gone, and needs to sell.And yes I careful what I’m wishing for.🤭🙈🤮

[Duran Is The Man]

The Sox were doing very well. They had a winning formula. Then they decided to change it. Apparently, the reason was to save the owner money. And things have gone downhill since. Is it any wonder that fans are upset ?

 

yep.

[Duran Is The Man]

We did finish in last place 3 of 4 years before DD.

 

The formula before DD was spend and then cut, spend and then cut.

 

It hasn't changed.

 

nope.

[Duran Is The Man]

IT HAS CHANGED! You been spewing the JH spending habits for the last three years now that I know about, because you still think JH is still the same guy who went on the Felger, and Mazz show to defend the Red Sox, and was in on the high priced FA back then. You actually still think he’s the same JH today, and I believe your 100% wrong, so keep on thinking what you want, and be wrong again.. The Old JH days I believe are long gone, and needs to sell.And yes I careful what I’m wishing for.

 

yep.

[moonslav59]

nope.

 

No doubt, we are in a cut cycle, but really, it's more about spending the money foolishly and letting the wrong star walk, than any major change in JH's spending patterns.

 

Also, several other teams have gone whacky with spending. Nobody knows how the spending will go, going forward. Tell me where the pattern changed, significantly:

 

We were at $108M in 2002 (according to Steve the Ump)

 

99 '03 -9

125 '04 +25

121 '05 -4

120 '06 -1

143 '07 +23

133 '08 -10

123 '09 -10

163 '10 +30

161 '11 -2

173 '12 +12

151 '13 -22

163 '14 +12

187 '15 +24

182 '16 -5

200 '17 +18

236 '18 +36

187 '19 -49

(84 '20 COVID)

180 '21 -7 (from '19)

195 '22 +15

176 '23 -19

162 '24 -14

 

The pattern seems obvious: never 3 years in a row of cuts or raising the budget. We are currently in a 2 straight year decline, and almost all of our biggest signings have sucked. That is the major change, not the spending more and cutting spending pattern of ups and downs..

 

BTW, I'm not predicting JH will ever spend bigly, again. I'm just saying JH's pattern has been up and down pretty consistently.

 

I'm not defending him. I think it sucks he couldn't have at least spent right up to the tax line, this year.

 

So, where was the major departure from the pattern?

 

2010?

2013?

2015?

2018?

2019-2020?

 

The "pattern" from '21-'24 looks like it fits the mold, except that other teams went nutty and flew past us.

[notin]

ya' know...maybe not now, but losing teams don't draw new fans like winning teams do. and like it or not, thanks to a ******** f***ing owner, the Red Sox popularity is slowly fading away. people want to root for winning teams -teams like NY, LA, PHILLY, ATL and Baltimore. they are gaining new fans. not a loser like John Henry's Sox.

 

The Sox do outdraw the Orioles and by a lot.

 

Sox attendance per Baseball Almanac

 

2019: 2.92mill

2020: COVID

2021: 1.73mill

2022: 2.62mill

2023: 2.68mill

 

The winning team drew the least and by a lot, although this was very likely influenced by COVID.

 

Per B-A, the Sox haven’t drawn 3 mill fans since 2012, a year in which they came in last. Two championships since have both drawn under 3 million fans…

[Bellhorn04]

No doubt, we are in a cut cycle, but really, it's more about spending the money foolishly and letting the wrong star walk, than any major change in JH's spending patterns.

 

Also, several other teams have gone whacky with spending. Nobody knows how the spending will go, going forward. Tell me where the pattern changed, significantly:

 

We were at $108M in 2002 (according to Steve the Ump)

 

99 '03 -9

125 '04 +25

121 '05 -4

120 '06 -1

143 '07 +23

133 '08 -10

123 '09 -10

163 '10 +30

161 '11 -2

173 '12 +12

151 '13 -22

163 '14 +12

187 '15 +24

182 '16 -5

200 '17 +18

236 '18 +36

187 '19 -49

(84 '20 COVID)

180 '21 -7 (from '19)

195 '22 +15

176 '23 -19

162 '24 -14

 

The pattern seems obvious: never 3 years in a row of cuts or raising the budget. We are currently in a 2 straight year decline, and almost all of our biggest signings have sucked. That is the major change, not the spending more and cutting spending pattern of ups and downs..

 

BTW, I'm not predicting JH will ever spend bigly, again. I'm just saying JH's pattern has been up and down pretty consistently.

 

I'm not defending him. I think it sucks he couldn't have at least spent right up to the tax line, this year.

 

So, where was the major departure from the pattern?

 

2010?

2013?

2015?

2018?

2019-2020?

 

The "pattern" from '21-'24 looks like it fits the mold, except that other teams went nutty and flew past us.

 

What's missing from your numbers is comparisons of annual payroll to annual revenue and franchise market value. If payroll is staying the same while the others are rising, that's effectively cutting payroll.

 

The payroll for 2024 is roughly the same as it was for 2010-2011. The franchise value has at least doubled since then.

[Randy Red Sox]

We did finish in last place 3 of 4 years before DD.

 

The formula before DD was spend and then cut, spend and then cut.

 

It hasn't changed.

 

it actually has changed as we continue to cut with no signs of spending

[Bellhorn04]

Which also explains some of the "nutty other teams" thing. Part of the reason more teams are spending more is because they're wealthier.

[Randy Red Sox]

exactly but the issue is that John Henry could care less

[notin]

Which also explains some of the "nutty other teams" thing. Part of the reason more teams are spending more is because they're wealthier.

 

It’s cyclical with lots teams, too.

 

Yankees and Dodgers, it’s nearly every year.

 

Two years ago, the Rangers went crazy.

Last year, it was the Mets.

This year, the Royals spent a lot.

 

And next year, someone will replace the Royals on that list…

[moonslav59]

What's missing from your numbers is comparisons of annual payroll to annual revenue and franchise market value. If payroll is staying the same while the others are rising, that's effectively cutting payroll.

 

The payroll for 2024 is roughly the same as it was for 2010-2011. The franchise value has at least doubled since then.

 

Indeed.

 

Some other teams- the same.

 

Again, I'm not defending JH. I'm just pointing out a pattern.

 

Of course, accounting for inflation, the numbers would look lower going forward, but there would still be a pretty consistent wave structure on a graph- a consistent pattern.

Edited June 4, 2024 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

it actually has changed as we continue to cut with no signs of spending

 

That has happened, before.

 

No signs, until POW!

 

Again, not saying a "POW" is near or never again.

 

I don't know, and I've given up expecting it.

[Duran Is The Man]

No doubt, we are in a cut cycle, but really, it's more about spending the money foolishly and letting the wrong star walk, than any major change in JH's spending patterns.

 

Also, several other teams have gone whacky with spending. Nobody knows how the spending will go, going forward. Tell me where the pattern changed, significantly:

 

We were at $108M in 2002 (according to Steve the Ump)

 

99 '03 -9

125 '04 +25

121 '05 -4

120 '06 -1

143 '07 +23

133 '08 -10

123 '09 -10

163 '10 +30

161 '11 -2

173 '12 +12

151 '13 -22

163 '14 +12

187 '15 +24

182 '16 -5

200 '17 +18

236 '18 +36

187 '19 -49

(84 '20 COVID)

180 '21 -7 (from '19)

195 '22 +15

176 '23 -19

162 '24 -14

 

The pattern seems obvious: never 3 years in a row of cuts or raising the budget. We are currently in a 2 straight year decline, and almost all of our biggest signings have sucked. That is the major change, not the spending more and cutting spending pattern of ups and downs..

 

BTW, I'm not predicting JH will ever spend bigly, again. I'm just saying JH's pattern has been up and down pretty consistently.

 

I'm not defending him. I think it sucks he couldn't have at least spent right up to the tax line, this year.

 

So, where was the major departure from the pattern?

 

2010?

2013?

2015?

2018?

2019-2020?

 

The "pattern" from '21-'24 looks like it fits the mold, except that other teams went nutty and flew past us.

 

 

bold part is very true. but also, the cuts are much deeper than the increases. the spending TREND is going down.

[Duran Is The Man]

The Sox do outdraw the Orioles and by a lot.

 

Sox attendance per Baseball Almanac

 

2019: 2.92mill

2020: COVID

2021: 1.73mill

2022: 2.62mill

2023: 2.68mill

 

The winning team drew the least and by a lot, although this was very likely influenced by COVID.

 

Per B-A, the Sox haven’t drawn 3 mill fans since 2012, a year in which they came in last. Two championships since have both drawn under 3 million fans…

 

this is recent history. i was stating that drawing new fans is important and the best way to do that is by winning. people don't want to be associated with losers. the Red Sox finish last enough and all us old guys die off, they won't be able to draw flies.

[moonslav59]

bold part is very true. but also, the cuts are much deeper than the increases. the spending TREND is going down.

 

Yes, true, especially factoring in inflation and in relation to several other teams' spending. Our largest drops have been in the last 4-5 years. Add that to just one increase in 5 years, and it looks bad. I get it. I'm not defending it, in any way. BTW, we did see a drop in 4 out of 5 years, before: from 2005 to 2009. There was also a drop in 5 of 7 years (2005-2011). People were complaining, then, too.

 

My only point is about us going up and down very consistently, while never going up or down for more than 2 years in a row. The pattern may or may not continue.

 

I'm hoping we up spending significantly, next year, but I am refusing to expect it to happen. If it does, the trend continues for over 2 decades.

[moonslav59]

this is recent history. i was stating that drawing new fans is important and the best way to do that is by winning. people don't want to be associated with losers. the Red Sox finish last enough and all us old guys die off, they won't be able to draw flies.

 

I agree. If we keep up like the last 5 years, we will miss out on adding new fans and may lose some old ones in other ways beyond the grace.

 

Nobody enjoys this.

[Old Red]

That has happened, before.

 

No signs, until POW!

 

Again, not saying a "POW" is near or never again.

 

I don't know, and I've given up expecting it.

 

🙈🤭🤮 Wash, rinse repeat. It’s a new day, and a new dawn, and the Old JH is long gone. Cling, and live in the past all you want to, but most have moved on. 🤫

[Old Red]

I agree. If we keep up like the last 5 years, we will miss out on adding new fans and may lose some old ones in other ways beyond the grace.

 

Nobody enjoys this.

 

Yes, but the future looks bright, and the team may be good again in 2036. Then again maybe it WON’T.

[Duran Is The Man]

Yes, true, especially factoring in inflation and in relation to several other teams' spending. Our largest drops have been in the last 4-5 years. Add that to just one increase in 5 years, and it looks bad. I get it. I'm not defending it, in any way. BTW, we did see a drop in 4 out of 5 years, before: from 2005 to 2009. There was also a drop in 5 of 7 years (2005-2011). People were complaining, then, too.

 

My only point is about us going up and down very consistently, while never going up or down for more than 2 years in a row. The pattern may or may not continue.

 

I'm hoping we up spending significantly, next year, but I am refusing to expect it to happen. If it does, the trend continues for over 2 decades.

 

the spending is just part of it. making better decisions is a bigger part, IMHO. the roster construction, and many of their signings have just been awful since DD was fired (not saying DD didn't make some bad decisions too).

[moonslav59]

the spending is just part of it. making better decisions is a bigger part, IMHO. the roster construction...

 

That was my point.

 

Had we spent the money more wisely, even beyond the Betts mess, we would not be talking about how cheap JH has become.

 

The Sale extension.

Richards & Kluber.

Kike II

Story

Yoshida

Giolito.

 

Those are the 7 highest AAV signings since 2019, not counting Devers, which kicked in, this year. (Maybe it's highest 6 after Sale & Bogey)

 

To me, that is the bigger issue, but certainly the 4 drops in payroll in the last 5 years has not helped.

[Randy Red Sox]

the spending is just part of it. making better decisions is a bigger part, IMHO. the roster construction, and many of their signings have just been awful since DD was fired (not saying DD didn't make some bad decisions too).

 

every GM makes some mistakes but DD'S record stands for itself

[moonslav59]

every GM makes some mistakes but DD'S record stands for itself

 

Indeed.

 

He hit on his major signings- almost all of them.

[notin]

this is recent history. i was stating that drawing new fans is important and the best way to do that is by winning. people don't want to be associated with losers. the Red Sox finish last enough and all us old guys die off, they won't be able to draw flies.

 

The Sox did manage to draw fans during that 1918-2004 gap somehow…

[Nick]

Anyone who spends more money just because the value of his home has increased is a fool.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That was my point.

 

Had we spent the money more wisely, even beyond the Betts mess, we would not be talking about how cheap JH has become.

 

The Sale extension.

Richards & Kluber.

Kike II

Story

Yoshida

Giolito.

 

Those are the 7 highest AAV signings since 2019

 

Sale was DD's big whiff, but all the rest are on the Bloom/Breslow watch... and here's the thing: besides Yoshida (who someone upstairs thought was a smaaht idea), ALL the rest arguably do reflect how cheap JH has become:

 

Cutting corners by signing reclamation projects for the rotation (that few other clubs were interested in), recruiting a shortstop replacement so they didn't have to pay more to keep the incumbent (who they could insult with a lowball offer, to ensure his exit), even the Kike extension -- which apparently excused them from signing a legitimate shortstop and sabotaged the first half of 2023.