A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

They could both have been big factors.

 

Kennedy said the payroll was going to be lower in 2024.

 

Sale was part of the reduction.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to think the $10 mill tipped the balance toward trading him.

 

The trade is not made without the $10M "savings," IMO. it was an essential part of the trade.

 

I also think it was a valiant attempt to solve the 2B problem we have had since Pedey got hurt. It's not like 2B was not an issue. Had Grissom filled that void, the trade would make more sense, right now,

 

Since 2017, we have had 20 second basemen with over 44 PAs and 16 over 82.

 

2017>today 2B PAs only (OPS)

544 Arroyo .739 (not even a full 650 PAs by one player!)

492 Nunez .691 (mostly from half season in '18)

487 Holt .739 (probably our best 2Bman)

457 Pedey .755 (was a drain on the budget)

396 Story .737

304 Kiki .901

263 Valdez .646

254 Chavis .711

148 Marco H .589

141 Kinsler .598

119 Marwin .511

100 Reyes .627

91 Arauz .468

89 Peraza .553

88 Urias .743

83 Grissom .386

51 Iggy .914

50 Lin .401

46 Rutledge .473

44 Yolmer S .322

 

2017-2024 2B Team Rankingss

T 30th in fWAR at 4.9 over 7.4 years.

24th in OPS .687

27th in OAA (-102)

 

No doubt, the rotation was a major concern, last winter, and we can now see why, but 2B was, too.

 

The swap out from frail Sale to Gio did make some sense, at the time, when you also factor in the idea that they felt they were solving the 2B problem.

[Bellhorn04]

And let's face it, Giolito was pretty much a dumpster dive, albeit a more pricey one than usual. He had one of the worst stretches I've ever seen to finish 2023. Obviously they thought they could "fix him".

[moonslav59]

Isn't this kind of leaving out that in the next full season, 2021, the Sox made it to the ALCS?

 

Plus the 2022 and 2023 teams arguably had playoff shots with a few better moves.

 

I mentioned '21 in another recent post, but the 2021-2023 teams were clearly a step down from 2018, and even the roster, on paper, of 2019. Even the 2020 team would not have been all that bad had Sale and ERod pitched.

 

It was not really "the cliff" many of us expected, in some ways, but the continued last place finishes does make it feel like the cliff cam into existent.

 

[moonslav59]

And let's face it, Giolito was pretty much a dumpster dive, albeit a more pricey one than usual. He had one of the worst stretches I've ever seen to finish 2023. Obviously they thought they could "fix him".

 

Agreed. I never really liked the signing, but did think it was a step up from Kluber, Richards and Perez.

 

Last 14 starts (almost half a season)

7.13 ERA/6.96

 

Last 12

6.96/6.87

 

7.14/6.88 last 11 (third of a season)

 

The last 5 did show improvement, so maybe that was part of the equation:

4.88/5.82 in 28 IP

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nope, not buying the "only 93 wins".

 

93 is several more than a number of recent WS and pennant winners.

 

Agreed. Finishing first place three years in a row never happened before or since in Red Sox history (and to crapshoot theorists, that accomplishment shouldn't be dismissed by crapping out in the '16-17 postseasons).

 

That had to be good for the brand -- but maybe Henry noticed waning interest in baseball in the summer of '18, when the Sox were 50 games over .500 and talk shows focused entirely on Patriots' training camp...

[Bellhorn04]

I mentioned '21 in another recent post, but the 2021-2023 teams were clearly a step down from 2018, and even the roster, on paper, of 2019. Even the 2020 team would not have been all that bad had Sale and ERod pitched.

 

It was not really "the cliff" many of us expected, in some ways, but the continued last place finishes does make it feel like the cliff cam into existent.

 

 

It did, but we can also see it didn't really have to with a bit more spending and better moves. They made very conscious decisions to trade Betts, cut payroll and hire a CBO with no experience.

 

The real cliff-bringers just might be the guys still here running the show.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. I never really liked the signing, but did think it was a step up from Kluber, Richards and Perez.

 

Last 14 starts (almost half a season)

7.13 ERA/6.96

 

Last 12

6.96/6.87

 

7.14/6.88 last 11 (third of a season)

 

The last 5 did show improvement, so maybe that was part of the equation:

4.88/5.82 in 28 IP

 

5.82

[moonslav59]

It did, but we can also see it didn't really have to with a bit more spending and better moves. They made very conscious decisions to trade Betts, cut payroll and hire a CBO with no experience.

 

The real cliff-bringers just might be the guys still here running the show.

 

Just keeping Betts and Price would have meant a huge increase in the budgets from 2020 onwards.

 

As it turned out, if it meant not signing these guys, it would not have made much of a difference, but we'd have had to cut other salaries or not signed some FAs that did work out to meet the actual budgets we had from '20-'24.

 

2020

11 JBJ arb (he did okay in '20)

8.3 ERod arb

5.0 Perez

4.3 Pillar

2.9 Peraza

2.5 Moreland

1.5 Lucroy

(How do we cut the 2020 budget to pay for Betts, let alone Betts & Price? No Bogey? No JD? Trade Sale?)

 

2021

10 Richards

9 Ottavino (trade)

7 Kike (x 2)

5 Perez

3 Renfroe

3 Marwin

(Richards, Ottavino, Perez & Marwin almost pays for Betts, but what about Price?)

 

2022: it gets easier due to Story and it being Price's last year

23 Story

12 JBJ trade

11 Devers arb

10 Paxton (2 yrs)

8 Barnes

7 Kike (signed in '21)

7 Wacha

5 Hill

4 Diekman (2 yrs)

3 Strahm

2.3 Robles

1.6 Sawamura

(You can save about $60M by not adding all from this list, except Wacha, Hill and Strahm, Devers and Kike, so it works for 2022, but you still need to fill the roster slots of those not added.)

 

2023: No Price contract makes having Betts doable.

23 Story

18 Yoshida (The top 2 alone, pays for Betts with 11M left over)

10 Kluber

4 Paxton

(Had we not signed Story, Yoshida, Kluber and Paxton and spent $30M on Betts $25M on a pitcher who actually did well and stayed healthy, we'd have done okay in '23.)

 

Yes, the choices to cut the budgets were made by the guys still in charge, but one point the cliff dwellers held, back then, was the idea that the continued increases in the budget, as our young stars reached arbs then free agency was going to come to a breaking point, and it did. Unfortunately or stupidly, we chose Betts as that point.

 

The choice to cut or not add to the budget was a major factor, no doubt, and the cuts actually began before 2019, by letting Kimbrel and Kelly walk to pay for arb raises, so the process actually began in 2019, before Bloom's arrival.

[moonslav59]

5.82

 

Sadly, still an improvement. LOL

[notin]

They could both have been big factors.

 

Kennedy said the payroll was going to be lower in 2024.

 

Sale was part of the reduction.

 

I don't think it's unreasonable to think the $10 mill tipped the balance toward trading him.

 

No. Sale was part of an increase in spending. If they keep Sale, do you think they still sign Giolito?

 

 

I do think it’s reasonable to think if Sale actually pitched from 2020-2023, he would not have been traded.

 

If the Sox were all about cost reduction as their top priority, they would have dealt Chris Martin ($8mill-ish) while he was coming off a career year instead of Sale.

 

Heck if it was all about money, why insist on Grissom? Why not trade Sale in 2022 when some team wanted the entire contract?

Edited June 9, 2024 by notin

[notin]

Nope, not buying the "only 93 wins".

 

93 is several more than a number of recent WS and pennant winners.

 

It’s also the lowest total ever to win the AL East pennant. It’s been done three times. 2016 (Red Sox), 2017 (Red Sox), and 2015 (Blue Jays)…

[moonslav59]

No. Sale was part of an increase in spending. If they keep Sale, do you think they still sign Giolito?

 

No way they had both Sale and Gio on the 2024 roster, IMO.

 

Maybe they'd have lucked out and kept Sale while adding Lorenzen at $5M/1.

 

As it turned out, the 2B issue was not solved by teh Sale trade, anyway, so not loss there.

 

Maybe we keep Sale and no Gio or O'Neill and sign Flaherty to $15M/1 or Lugo $15M x 3.

 

This is pure hindsight, of course.

 

[moonslav59]

It’s also the lowest total ever to win the AL East pennant. It’s been done three times. 2016 (Red Sox), 2017 (Red Sox), and 2015 (Blue Jays)…

 

We cry about how tough the ALE has been since 2022, but don't look at how weak it was from '16-'18.

 

From '19-'21 it was pretty tough but not great.

[Nick]

I just read that Oakland A's had the fourth best "Profit Margin" last year. That tells me that maybe the A's aren't 'valued' asset in a traditional sense but it can generate decent, annual pocket money to the owner. Meanwhile the fans suffer. Ugh.

[notin]

I just read that Oakland A's had the fourth best "Profit Margin" last year. That tells me that maybe the A's aren't 'valued' asset in a traditional sense but it can generate decent, annual pocket money to the owner. Meanwhile the fans suffer. Ugh.

 

They rely heavily on revenue-sharing money…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It’s also the lowest total ever to win the AL East pennant. It’s been done three times. 2016 (Red Sox), 2017 (Red Sox), and 2015 (Blue Jays)…

 

... this century, right?

 

I remember three Red Sox teams last century that won the AL East with less than 90 wins.

[Nick]

They rely heavily on revenue-sharing money…

 

I'm surprised that the union doesn't bitch about that.......minimum spending should be a must.

 

Otherwise we'll always have the Washing Generals in MLB.

[notin]

... this century, right?

 

I remember three Red Sox teams last century that won the AL East with less than 90 wins.

 

I originally typed out “since the split to 3 divisions”, so slightly further back than just this century. Not sure why I changed it, but good catch.

 

And we can discount the 1995 team that only played 144 games.

[notin]

I'm surprised that the union doesn't bitch about that.......minimum spending should be a must.

 

Otherwise we'll always have the Washing Generals in MLB.

 

Revenue-sharing is in the CBA; they do both about every time negotiations start up again…

[Bellhorn04]

It’s also the lowest total ever to win the AL East pennant. It’s been done three times. 2016 (Red Sox), 2017 (Red Sox), and 2015 (Blue Jays)…

 

I'm guessing there were other years it would have won...

[notin]

I'm guessing there were other years it would have won...

 

5Gold corrected me on my edit.

 

Either way, a 93-win division champ is not exactly a sign of a strong division.

 

Are you implying there were champs with less? Not since the AL split into 3 divisions…

[Tedballgame]

Mayer is not ready. He’d get wrecked by MLB pitching. Yorke stinks.

 

Yorke was promoted to AAA this week and he is doing very well. To say he stinks is a ridiculous statement. He is going to play in the majors for the Red Sox or someone else.

[moonslav59]

... this century, right?

 

I remember three Red Sox teams last century that won the AL East with less than 90 wins.

 

One of those 3 was in a 144 game season. That team was on pace for 90.2 wins.

[Tedballgame]

So, your plan is to bench Wong, so Teel plays, bench RBI leader Rafaela, so Anthony can play and call up Yorke, who is slipping in the rankings, to replace DHam at 2B?

 

(Mayer at SS makes some sense.)

 

Teel and Wong can platoon for the rest of the second half. McGuire is toast. Rafaela doesn't get benched just because they have Anthony. Ref and O'Neill can both go. They aren't long term solutions. Yorke would hit better than Hamilton. I'm also not giving up on Grissom just yet. He needs to go back to AAA for more seasoning. He had no Spring Training and that really set him back offensively. Mayer should come up for the last 6 weeks of the season after he's played in AAA. He is having a comeback season. Lugo is also on the rise and should be up for the last 6 weeks. The Sox are out of the race for all practical purposes. Anyone who looks at their order and says they are a wild card team is crazy.

[moonslav59]

Yorke was promoted to AAA this week and he is doing very well. To say he stinks is a ridiculous statement. He is going to play in the majors for the Red Sox or someone else.

 

He doesn't stink, but he did drop in the recent sp's rankings despite a couple players graduating from the ranks.

 

He has got off to a nice start in AAA- a four game sample size at 1.009.

 

He was once ranked 5th in our system, dropped to 11th in Spring, and now is 17th- behind Paulino, Castro and Wikelman.

[moonslav59]

Teel and Wong can platoon for the rest of the second half. McGuire is toast. Rafaela doesn't get benched just because they have Anthony. Ref and O'Neill can both go. They aren't long term solutions. Yorke would hit better than Hamilton. I'm also not giving up on Grissom just yet. He needs to go back to AAA for more seasoning. He had no Spring Training and that really set him back offensively. Mayer should come up for the last 6 weeks of the season after he's played in AAA. He is having a comeback season. Lugo is also on the rise and should be up for the last 6 weeks. The Sox are out of the race for all practical purposes. Anyone who looks at their order and says they are a wild card team is crazy.

 

Sorry, Ted, but let Ref go? Just because he isn't signed into 2026?

 

I'm fine with trading O'Neill and starting Rafaela at SS to make room for Anthony, but trading Ref makes no sense on a team dying for RHBs.

 

Don't be so harsh on McGuire, either. Our staff's success has been helped by his work with them.

2.41 ERA w McGuire

4.18 ERA w Wong

 

While his .604 OPS has hurt, he has been rather productive with his few hits. His 14 RBI in just 110 PAs ranks him higher than Wong and many other Sox players like Duran, O'Neill, Ref in RBI per PA.

 

I'm okay with giving the kids a shot, when ready, and most of the big 3 are very close to ready, IMO.

 

I do want us to maximize their years of control, too, and not waste one on 2024. That is a factor to consider, too.

 

I'd be okay trading McGuire, Valdez and O'Neill to make room for the big 3, but only if they are truly ready and we don't lose a year of control.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One of those 3 was in a 144 game season. That team was on pace for 90.2 wins.

 

Cora was still in college, but called Kennedy after they clinched and talked him into resting his regulars the last couple games, so any hot hitting streaks would go cold before the playoffs.

[dgalehouse]

A big market, big time team with plenty of revenue , a storied history and a huge fan base should never, ever decide they want to emulate the Tampa Bay Rays . Tampa Bay North indeed. Worst idea in a very long time.

[Bellhorn04]

5Gold corrected me on my edit.

 

Either way, a 93-win division champ is not exactly a sign of a strong division.

 

Are you implying there were champs with less? Not since the AL split into 3 divisions…

 

What I'm saying is, any year in which the second place team had 92 wins or less, 93 wins would have sufficed.

[Old Red]

A big market, big time team with plenty of revenue , a storied history and a huge fan base should never, ever decide they want to emulate the Tampa Bay Rays . Tampa Bay North indeed. Worst idea in a very long time.

 

👍👍👍!