Predict the 2024 AL East standings

[mvp 78]

So this is your last post on the Red Sox for a while then. OK, catch you after the Celts and Bruins are done.

 

Why bother with the C's and Bruins? C's will lose in the finals and Bruins won't make it out of the first round.

[mvp 78]

I know I am going into this season with excitement about a lot of our players- most are young and promising, and some have already shown glimpses of high level skills.

 

I'm not expecting much more than 80-84 wins, and losing sucks, but I'm looking forward to seeing how our future starts to take shape.

 

I'll be watching the minors, more this year, and I hope some prospects take big steps forward.

 

Let the game begin!

 

In terms of excitement for Opening Day, I'm pretty low.

 

1. West Coast swing causing late start times

2. Boring offseason

3. Potential 3rd straight last DAMN place finish

4. Best prospects won't be here until next season

 

This has the makings of a very forgettable year.

[Old Red]

Why bother with the C's and Bruins? C's will lose in the finals and Bruins won't make it out of the first round.

 

You are probably right on both counts,and I’m not even counting on the C’s getting to the finals,but U Maine has a hockey game today too.

[Old Red]

In terms of excitement for Opening Day, I'm pretty low.

 

1. West Coast swing causing late start times

2. Boring offseason

3. Potential 3rd straight last DAMN place finish

4. Best prospects won't be here until next season

 

This has the makings of a very forgettable year.

 

From the infamous Chaim Bloom. UNDERDOGS!

[mvp 78]

You are probably right on both counts,and I’m not even counting on the C’s getting to the finals,but U Maine has a hockey game today too.

 

No college hockey down here and I find college baseball to be insufferable. All I got is college football and MLB. :/

[moonslav59]

In terms of excitement for Opening Day, I'm pretty low.

 

1. West Coast swing causing late start times

2. Boring offseason

3. Potential 3rd straight last DAMN place finish

4. Best prospects won't be here until next season

 

This has the makings of a very forgettable year.

 

I can't disagree, but I think this team will be more fun to watch than last year's team. Losing Turner hurt. He was fun to watch.

 

Which Duran shows up?

Can Grissom be more like Pedey than Downs?

Can our catcher mature and grow?

Can casas be even better (esp on D?)

Will Devers have a career year?

Will Story shut Red up?

Can Rafaela & Abreu earn a (long term) slot?

Has Yoshida gotten acclimated?

Will O'Neill bust out in his contract year?

Can Bello build on a pretty solid season?

Is Crawford for real?

Can Whitlock finally stay healthy, all year?

Can Houck get past the first 18 batters, or will doing great through 18 be just enough?

Will Pivetta put together a full season for the first time of his career?

Can Jansen & Martin defy age yet one more year?

Can Wink repeat last year's performance?

What about these new pen arms? Campbell, Slaten, Weissert? (Anderson, Luetge & the Joely we never really got to see, last year?)

 

I think there is a good chance most of these questions are answered in a positive way in 2024, but we may need 75% or more to have good answers for us to sneak into the POs.

 

 

[mvp 78]

I can't disagree, but I think this team will be more fun to watch than last year's team. Losing Turner hurt. He was fun to watch.

 

Which Duran shows up? LAST YEAR, BUT FOR EVEN LESS GAMES

Can Grissom be more like Pedey than Downs? PEDEY, BUT ONLY BECAUSE DOWNS IS AAA ONLY

Can our catcher mature and grow? NO

Can casas be even better (esp on D?) SURE

Will Devers have a career year? NO

Will Story shut Red up? NO

Can Rafaela & Abreu earn a (long term) slot? ONE OF THEM WILL

Has Yoshida gotten acclimated? YES

Will O'Neill bust out in his contract year? BUST OUT HIS SPLEEN?

Can Bello build on a pretty solid season? YES

Is Crawford for real? YES

Can Whitlock finally stay healthy, all year? YES!!!!!!!!!!

Can Houck get past the first 18 batters, or will doing great through 18 be just enough? NO

Will Pivetta put together a full season for the first time of his career? NO

Can Jansen & Martin defy age yet one more year? NO

Can Wink repeat last year's performance? NO, WEARING A BRACE ON HIS LEG AND HIS ERA HID HIS ACTUAL PERFORMANCE

What about these new pen arms? Campbell, Slaten, Weissert? (Anderson, Luetge & the Joely we never really got to see, last year?) THEY'LL BE OK

 

I think there is a good chance most of these questions are answered in a positive way in 2024, but we may need 75% or more to have good answers for us to sneak into the POs.

 

 

 

I answered what I could. I think the team will be fun to watch. I'm just not excited for this first stretch because of the reasons I stated.

[notin]

No college hockey down here and I find college baseball to be insufferable. All I got is college football and MLB. :/

 

And shuffleboard!!

[moonslav59]

I answered what I could. I think the team will be fun to watch. I'm just not excited for this first stretch because of the reasons I stated.

 

I can't help feeling excited on opening day.

[gojohn99]

I'll be pleased if they manage to come back from this opening road trip at .500. Seattle is good, but Oakland and LA Angels are not.

 

Let's say 1-3 against SEA, 2-1 against OAK and LAA.

 

 

AL East prediction

 

Baltimore

New York

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Boston

[gojohn99]

No college hockey down here and I find college baseball to be insufferable. All I got is college football and MLB. :/

 

I'm in Rhode Island, college hockey playoff round is in Providence Friday (tomorrow). First game is BC vs Michigan, Second game Wisconsin vs Quinnipiac and i'll be there!

[mvp 78]

And shuffleboard!!

 

What's this 1988? Old people play pickleball now. Especially down here with all the tennis courts.

[mvp 78]

I'll be pleased if they manage to come back from this opening road trip at .500. Seattle is good, but Oakland and LA Angels are not.

 

Let's say 1-3 against SEA, 2-1 against OAK and LAA.

 

 

AL East prediction

 

Baltimore

New York

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Boston

 

Fair.

[jad]

The Sox came in last two years ago and added a two-time Cy Young... and sustained their status woe!

 

Can the Sox even lose the division? Don't they need to be in contention before they can blow it?

 

Nice. (Did you just make that up? or borrow it?)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nice. (Did you just make that up? or borrow it?)

 

Out of my mind. There's just a lot of overlapping static in there, so sometimes it just exudes iconoclasm.

 

Like: if this Spring's good vibes translate into a big win that counts -- say, a late comeback in Seattle -- then it's definitely possible the Sox could split the four-game series, and then stampede through LA and Oakland.

 

Just think what a good first roadtrip could mean... 6-4 out West means Boston would just need to go .500 the rest of the entire season to finish with a winning record. Just...

[Maxbialystock]

81-81 is not as horrible as one would think from the board traffic. It’s only 3 fewer wins than the reigning NL champions had last year.

 

I think this season comes down to ONE FACTOR. Just one, despite the numerous lists of things some people think need to go right for this team to compete. There’s just one.

 

Health/durability of the rotation. If the Sox reported starting five - Bello, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock - can make 140 or more starts and pitch 700-800 innings, this team will do well enough to make the postseason. Even if they miss the postseason, it won’t be by much.

 

But this whole season will collapse if the Sox need to dig too deep into their questionable SP depth…

 

There is no SP/rotation depth. Those five "starters" are mostly relievers. Our ace, Bello, had 28 starts last year and 157 IP. Then came Crawford with 23 and 129 and Houck with 21 and 106.

 

I figure Cora will need/use 6 pitchers per game, and the math on that gets ugly.

[moonslav59]

There is no SP/rotation depth. Those five "starters" are mostly relievers. Our ace, Bello, had 28 starts last year and 157 IP. Then came Crawford with 23 and 129 and Houck with 21 and 106.

 

I figure Cora will need/use 6 pitchers per game, and the math on that gets ugly.

 

Good to see you back, Max!

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, welcome back Max, you are always fun to read.

[sk7326]

81-81 ... the team is much better defensively. Is that enough to turn this pitching staff into a playoff team. No. But it could be worth 2-3 wins - the defense was that atrocious.

 

I just want to see whether there are leaps in pitching ... whether some of our pitchers with talent but a 10-20% likelihood of starting actually hit that.

[vegasbob]

The West Coast start will be a marker to see who can take the ST positivities into real play. The 10 game ride through Seattle, Oakland and Angels, will result in somewhere between 6-4 on the upside and 3-7 on the downside. Realistic Expectation : 5-5, but not just to split the baby.

[MADSTORK]

One thing for certain, Boston dead last

 

68 94 and that pink hats is a gift

 

Those are the facts and the facts are undisputed

[Elktonnick]

The West Coast start will be a marker to see who can take the ST positivities into real play. The 10 game ride through Seattle, Oakland and Angels, will result in somewhere between 6-4 on the upside and 3-7 on the downside. Realistic Expectation : 5-5, but not just to split the baby.

A 5-5 split would be terrific. Even in their best years Sox teams have not done well out West. I would be very content to see them open in Boston with a .500 record.

[Maxbialystock]

Good to see you back, Max!

 

Thanks. Hard to stay away from talksox when the season has begun.

 

75 years ago I got the box scores 2 days later in the Stars & Stripes--so I could see what Ted Williams had done. I was not very interested that the Sox were in 2d place. 5 years later I was hooked when we lived in W.Springfield, MA and I could listen to Curt Gowdy call the games--and even though the Guardians ran away with the AL (after the Yankees won 5 straight WS). That fall my dad returned from Korea just in time for the WS, the one in which the Giants swept the Guardians (who I of course rooted for). And Willie Mays made that incredible grab in the Polo Grounds.

 

This season, like last season and the one before, is kind of like old times, but I am grateful for the 4 WS wins of the John Henry era, which now is beginning to look like the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

[moonslav59]

Thanks. Hard to stay away from talksox when the season has begun.

 

75 years ago I got the box scores 2 days later in the Stars & Stripes--so I could see what Ted Williams had done. I was not very interested that the Sox were in 2d place. 5 years later I was hooked when we lived in W.Springfield, MA and I could listen to Curt Gowdy call the games--and even though the Guardians ran away with the AL (after the Yankees won 5 straight WS). That fall my dad returned from Korea just in time for the WS, the one in which the Giants swept the Guardians (who I of course rooted for). And Willie Mays made that incredible grab in the Polo Grounds.

 

This season, like last season and the one before, is kind of like old times, but I am grateful for the 4 WS wins of the John Henry era, which now is beginning to look like the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

 

I always enjoy reading your comments on the Sox of before my time.

 

Thanks, Max.

[Maxbialystock]

There is no SP/rotation depth. Those five "starters" are mostly relievers. Our ace, Bello, had 28 starts last year and 157 IP. Then came Crawford with 23 and 129 and Houck with 21 and 106.

 

I figure Cora will need/use 6 pitchers per game, and the math on that gets ugly.

 

Hmmmmm. Pretty lousy predictions. And I couldn't be happier!

[Old Red]

Hmmmmm. Pretty lousy predictions. And I couldn't be happier!

 

Your prediction may be right in the first place, and after just 4 games against a Bad hitting team who was second in all of MLB last year in striking out makes it way to early to see which prediction is right, or wrong. 🙈🤭

[Maxbialystock]

Your prediction may be right in the first place, and after just 4 games against a Bad hitting team who was second in all of MLB last year in striking out makes it way to early to see which prediction is right, or wrong.

 

Sox now 2-2 after 4 @ Seattle. Not bad at all. Rotation was unbelievably good in all 4 games, especially because they are supposed to be the big weakness. All 4 games were winnable by Sox.

 

2019 Sox, fresh off the incredible 2018 season, also started on West Coast. They went 3-8 and never really recovered. They had Mookie, Xander, JDM, Beni, JBJ (OPS .783), Vazquez, Moreland, Chavis, and Holt. Rotation included Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, and Eovaldi. I'm pretty sure they had the highest payroll in MLB and did not make the postseason.

[moonslav59]

Sox now 2-2 after 4 @ Seattle. Not bad at all. Rotation was unbelievably good in all 4 games, especially because they are supposed to be the big weakness. All 4 games were winnable by Sox.

 

2019 Sox, fresh off the incredible 2018 season, also started on West Coast. They went 3-8 and never really recovered. They had Mookie, Xander, JDM, Beni, JBJ (OPS .783), Vazquez, Moreland, Chavis, and Holt. Rotation included Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, and Eovaldi. I'm pretty sure they had the highest payroll in MLB and did not make the postseason.

 

Indeed.

 

Rotation was supposed to be our weakest link.

Rafaela's offense was a big worry (and still is.)

Our catchers were ranked bottom 5 or 10 in MLB. They are among the leaders in team catching OPS and CERA.

O'Neill is looking like Duvall in April 2023.

[Hugh2]

Your prediction may be right in the first place, and after just 4 games against a Bad hitting team who was second in all of MLB last year in striking out makes it way to early to see which prediction is right, or wrong. 🙈🤭

 

Wrong. The Mariners were 12th in runs scored last year. They certainly weren’t an elite hitting team but calling them a “bad hitting team” is just false.

[Nick]

Our relievers disguised as starters are doing just fine.

 

Just because experts on this board proclaim they are relievers does not make it so.

 

I will trust Brez over experts here.

 

At some point we had to find out what we had in our five starters.

Edited April 3, 2024 by Nick