Predict the 2024 AL East standings

[Randy Red Sox]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

 

1} Baltimore 99-63

2} NYY 94-68

3} Tampa Bay 92-70

4} Toronto 87-75

5} Boston 81-81

[moonslav59]

bal 97-65

tbr 93-69

nyy 85-77

tor 84-78

bos 82-80

[notin]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

 

1} Baltimore 99-63

2} NYY 94-68

3} Tampa Bay 92-70

4} Toronto 87-75

5} Boston 81-81

 

81-81 is not as horrible as one would think from the board traffic. It’s only 3 fewer wins than the reigning NL champions had last year.

 

I think this season comes down to ONE FACTOR. Just one, despite the numerous lists of things some people think need to go right for this team to compete. There’s just one.

 

Health/durability of the rotation. If the Sox reported starting five - Bello, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock - can make 140 or more starts and pitch 700-800 innings, this team will do well enough to make the postseason. Even if they miss the postseason, it won’t be by much.

 

But this whole season will collapse if the Sox need to dig too deep into their questionable SP depth…

[moonslav59]

81-81 is not as horrible as one would think from the board traffic. It’s only 3 fewer wins than the reigning NL champions had last year.

 

I think this season comes down to ONE FACTOR. Just one, despite the numerous lists of things some people think need to go right for this team to compete. There’s just one.

 

Health/durability of the rotation. If the Sox reported starting five - Bello, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock - can make 140 or more starts and pitch 700-800 innings, this team will do well enough to make the postseason. Even if they miss the postseason, it won’t be by much.

 

But this whole season will collapse if the Sox need to dig too deep into their questionable SP depth…

 

I agree, but that seems like a big ask.

 

140 GS is 28 by all 5.

 

750 IP is 150 by all 5. (Yes, one may get 180 and 3 others 140, but it's a big ask.)

 

I don't think our 6th and 7th SP'ers are worse than the league average, so those other 22 GS'd might not burn us. If we need 40-50 from our 6 & 7, we might not suffer much.

 

I like our O. (top 10-12)

 

I like our pen (top 10, if not taxed- top 12-14, otherwise)

 

Our D is improved but likely still not up to #15th.

 

The rotation needs to be near 15th to have any chance.

[notin]

I agree, but that seems like a big ask.

 

140 GS is 28 by all 5.

 

750 IP is 150 by all 5. (Yes, one may get 180 and 3 others 140, but it's a big ask.)

 

I don't think our 6th and 7th SP'ers are worse than the league average, so those other 22 GS'd might not burn us. If we need 40-50 from our 6 & 7, we might not suffer much.

 

I like our O. (top 10-12)

 

I like our pen (top 10, if not taxed- top 12-14, otherwise)

 

Our D is improved but likely still not up to #15th.

 

The rotation needs to be near 15th to have any chance.

 

 

It’s a huge ask.

 

My bold prediction is actually not all that bold at all. Could they all stay healthy and pitch that much? Sure. It’s possible. Will they? Not bloody likely…

[moonslav59]

It’s a huge ask.

 

My bold prediction is actually not all that bold at all. Could they all stay healthy and pitch that much? Sure. It’s possible. Will they? Not bloody likely…

 

This is one way adding 32GS and 180 IP by Monty would make a big impact.

 

We'd need 108 GS (27 GS not 28) from the other 4. The IP per SP'er's 2-5 would also drop from about 150 IP to about 140.

 

More importantly, our current #5 SP'er would be a long man in the pen, which would lessen the load for the other 7 RP'ers on the 26, at any given moment. Our current #6 and #7 would now be #7 and #8. I know you don't like numbering SP'ers, but it would allow us to fill in starts, here and there, with much better pitchers and allow for more missed starts by adding depth to our sp'er core.

[Randy Red Sox]

This is one way adding 32GS and 180 IP by Monty would make a big impact.

 

We'd need 108 GS (27 GS not 28) from the other 4. The IP per SP'er's 2-5 would also drop from about 150 IP to about 140.

 

More importantly, our current #5 SP'er would be a long man in the pen, which would lessen the load for the other 7 RP'ers on the 26, at any given moment. Our current #6 and #7 would now be #7 and #8. I know you don't like numbering SP'ers, but it would allow us to fill in starts, here and there, with much better pitchers and allow for more missed starts by adding depth to our sp'er core.

 

it is doubtful Montgomery would be ready by opening day even if he were to sign today

[moonslav59]

it is doubtful Montgomery would be ready by opening day even if he were to sign today

 

True, so maybe 29 GS and 165 IP, if signed real soon.

[Larry Cook]

1} Baltimore 104-58

2} Tampa Bay 95-67

3} Toronto 92-70

4} New York 82-80

5} Boston 70- 92

[Elktonnick]

1} Baltimore 104-58

2} Tampa Bay 95-67

3} Toronto 92-70

4} New York 82-80

5} Boston 70- 92

 

I am with you. The Sox lose more than they win.

[moonslav59]

I am with you. The Sox lose more than they win.

 

Are you with the 22 game differential, too, or are you closer to a 80-82 projection?

[Duran Is The Man]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

 

1} Baltimore 99-63

2} NYY 94-68

3} Tampa Bay 92-70

4} Toronto 87-75

5} Boston 81-81

 

i think this is pretty close but i'd have the Sox at 73-89. i just don't think they have enough pitching.

[Elktonnick]

1} Baltimore 104-58

2} Tampa Bay 95-67

3} Toronto 92-70

4} New York 82-80

5} Boston 70- 92

 

Are you with the 22 game differential, too, or are you closer to a 80-82 projection?

 

75-87 without any major injuries. With injuries they could win less the 70

[moonslav59]

75-87 without any major injuries. With injuries they could win less the 70

 

Certainly a reasonable projection.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox finished 12 games under .500 in the woeful 2020 summer -- that's 75-87 over an entire season... though Boston's .400 winning percentage equates more to 65 wins.

 

A range between 65 and 75 victories seems reasonable. Predicting playoffs is unreasonable -- and even CBO Breslow admits that. Remember, no member of the projected starting rotation has ever had one entire good season as a starting pitcher.

 

But the AL East will not be the mighty division many expect it to be. There will not be three playoff teams in the East, maybe only one. Baltimore won't win 100, especially with Kimbrel trying to close. Not every young talent is an instant star, and all are subject to growing pains. Toronto has the best rotation. New York's veteran starters are all injury-prone now, and will regret trading pitching prospects the past year. Tampa is depleted and due for a season of mediocre openers.

 

Jays 95-67

O's 92-70

Rays 81-81

Spanks 79-83

Sox 74-88

Edited March 18, 2024 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[notin]

The Red Sox finished 12 games under .500 in the woeful 2020 summer -- that's 75-87 over an entire season... though Boston's .400 winning percentage equates more to 65 wins.

 

A range between 65 and 75 victories seems reasonable. Predicting playoffs is unreasonable -- and even CBO Breslow admits that. Remember, no member of the projected starting rotation has ever had one entire good season as a starting pitcher.

 

But the AL East will not be the mighty division many expect it to be. There will not be three playoff teams in the East, maybe only one. Baltimore won't win 100, especially with Kimbrel trying to close. Not every young talent is an instant star, and all are subject to growing pains. Toronto has the best rotation. New York's veteran starters are all injury-prone now, and will regret trading pitching prospects the past year. Tampa is depleted and due for a season of mediocre openers.

 

Jays 95-67

O's 92-70

Rays 81-81

Spanks 79-83

Sox 74-88

 

 

Have you seen the other divisions?

 

The Central is mediocrity defined. The West? Houston and Seattle. And those teams are not without flaws as well. Defending champion Texas will start the season with more question marks in their rotation than Boston.

 

It wouldn’t surprise me if the East sent 3 teams again. And if they don’t , they definitely send two and the third one doesn’t miss by much. (I still like Baltimore and Tampa ahead of the overrated Blue Jays.)

Edited March 18, 2024 by notin

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox finished 12 games under .500 in the woeful 2020 summer -- that's 75-87 over an entire season... though Boston's .400 winning percentage equates more to 65 wins.

 

A range between 65 and 75 victories seems reasonable. Predicting playoffs is unreasonable -- and even CBO Breslow admits that. Remember, no member of the projected starting rotation has ever had one entire good season as a starting pitcher.

 

But the AL East will not be the mighty division many expect it to be. There will not be three playoff teams in the East, maybe only one. Baltimore won't win 100, especially with Kimbrel trying to close. Not every young talent is an instant star, and all are subject to growing pains. Toronto has the best rotation. New York's veteran starters are all injury-prone now, and will regret trading pitching prospects the past year. Tampa is depleted and due for a season of mediocre openers.

 

Jays 95-67

O's 92-70

Rays 81-81

Spanks 79-83

Sox 74-88

 

Here, I thought you were one of the more optimistic ones.

[Bellhorn04]

With ST winding down it is pretty much time to predict the final AL East standings even though I know many are still holding out hope that John Henry lets some of the moths out of his wallet and signs Jordan Montgomery { unlikely in my view}. I will start with my predictions.

 

1} Baltimore 99-63

2} NYY 94-68

3} Tampa Bay 92-70

4} Toronto 87-75

5} Boston 81-81

 

Those are pretty solid.

[Hugh2]

1. Yankees 95 wins

2. Orioles 94 wins

3. Jays 86 wins

4. Rays 84 wins

5. Red Sox 79 wins

 

Orioles are loaded, but have some growing pains, Yankees are primed to climb back to the top, Jays and Rays are still good but their windows are closing and they take a step back this year leaving room for the Sox to finish as high as 3rd place if everything breaks right, which rarely happens.

[mvp 78]

Tor 96 - 66

bal 95 - 67

tbr 89 - 73

nyy 88 - 74

bos 75 - 87

[Bellhorn04]

Because I have a numbers fetish I have an awful hunch they're going to pull off a three-peat of 78's.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here, I thought you were one of the more optimistic ones.

 

I am. Definitely looking forward to a new season: watching young outfielders progress, seeing if corner infielders can become studs, hoping for Bailey to help Bello and at least one of the other starters become solid all year, intrigued by the potential of new relievers, even anticipating that some prospect makes a splash in the second half... and the debut of Mondesi -- I mean Grissom.

 

I think the AL East is vulnerable; the Yankees are vastly overrated, and the highlight of their season may be calling up Spencer Jones when Judge and Stanton get hurt again. The O's and Rays won't be as good as last year, and I just picked the Jays because they're due. But if all goes right for the Sox, they could make some noise.

 

Realistically, though, with a totally unproven starting rotation?

[mvp 78]

The Sox could be fun to watch and still be a last place team. It could be a better team than '22 and '23, but with a worse record.

[moonslav59]

I am. Definitely looking forward to a new season: watching young outfielders progress, seeing if corner infielders can become studs, hoping for Bailey to help Bello and at least one of the other starters become solid all year, intrigued by the potential of new relievers, even anticipating that some prospect makes a splash in the second half... and the debut of Mondesi -- I mean Grissom.

 

I think the AL East is vulnerable; the Yankees are vastly overrated, and the highlight of their season may be calling up Spencer Jones when Judge and Stanton get hurt again. The O's and Rays won't be as good as last year, and I just picked the Jays because they're due. But if all goes right for the Sox, they could make some noise.

 

Realistically, though, with a totally unproven starting rotation?

 

I share your excitement over various aspects of the 2024 Sox team. I do not think your projection is unreasonable, at all.

 

The Gio-less rotation is highly suspect: I agree. While many have had stretches of good to great pitching for 16-24 starts, none have had a full season of solid pitching. I suppose one could argue almost all good pitchers have bad parts of every season, but your point is well taken. I will say that Pivetta has had full seasons of looking okay.

 

2021-2022: 63 GS and a 4.54 ERA (4.35 FIP)- nothing to get excited about, but okay for a 4/5 slot pitcher. The problem is, he's our 2/3 SP'er, now. His best stretches were:

 

Last 2 GS or 2020: 1.80 ERA plus 15 GS to start 2021: 3.97 ERA

First 16 GS or 2022: 3.23 ERA and was at a 3.98 FIP after 25 GS.

 

Bello started 28 games, last year, which can be considered a full season, but a 4.24 ERA is not great. The 3.14 ERA after 15 GS and 5.58 the last 13 bolsters your point.

 

Houck has never started more than 21 games in MLB, and had a 5.01 ERA, when he did.

 

Whitlock has never gone beyond 79 IP or 10 GS in MLB.

 

Serious concerns, for sure.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It sort of feels like this team is set up to replicate 2023. Get off to a good start and ultimately collapse as the rotation breaks down.

[mvp 78]

Bello

Games 1-15: 3.14 ERA, 3.94 xFIP

Games 16-26: 4.50 ERA, 3.83 xFIP

Games 27-28: 13.00 ERA, 6.13 xFIP

 

Interesting how the xFIPs for Games 1-15 and Games 16-26 are very similar.

 

Games 1-26: 3.71 ERA, 3.89 xFIP

 

How luck evens out over a larger sample size.

[mvp 78]

It sort of feels like this team is set up to replicate 2023. Get off to a good start and ultimately collapse as the rotation breaks down.

 

I think they'll be worse at the beginning.

[notin]

I’m surprised how many think the Sox will come in last with 78 wins or more. That the Sox have accomplished this in the last two years didn’t underscore how rare it is. In MLB history, there have been as many 110 win teams as there have been last place teams with 78 wins…

[notin]

I am. Definitely looking forward to a new season: watching young outfielders progress, seeing if corner infielders can become studs, hoping for Bailey to help Bello and at least one of the other starters become solid all year, intrigued by the potential of new relievers, even anticipating that some prospect makes a splash in the second half... and the debut of Mondesi -- I mean Grissom.

 

I think the AL East is vulnerable; the Yankees are vastly overrated, and the highlight of their season may be calling up Spencer Jones when Judge and Stanton get hurt again. The O's and Rays won't be as good as last year, and I just picked the Jays because they're due. But if all goes right for the Sox, they could make some noise.

 

Realistically, though, with a totally unproven starting rotation?

 

 

Better starting rotation?

 

Bello-Pivetta-Crawford-Houck-Whitlock

 

or

 

Eovaldi-Gray-Dunning-Heaney-Pérez?

[moonslav59]

Bello

Games 1-15: 3.14 ERA, 3.94 xFIP

Games 16-26: 4.50 ERA, 3.83 xFIP

Games 27-28: 13.00 ERA, 6.13 xFIP

 

Interesting how the xFIPs for Games 1-15 and Games 16-26 are very similar.

 

Games 1-26: 3.71 ERA, 3.89 xFIP

 

How luck evens out over a larger sample size.

 

Eye-opening numbers. Being pretty good for a 26 game stretch probably qualifies for having a good full season. Most good to great SP'ers have a 2-6 game stretch of bad outings, just about every season.