Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

There are a number of reasons to keep Duran. The only reason not to keep him is if you can get a legit starting pitcher for him.

 

I think Duran has real potential to be the player we saw for half a season, last year. He's not the same kid we saw 2+ years ago. He is hard to project, as he has changed and re-tooled his game a few times already.

 

His 5 years of control at reasonable rates seem to make him a lock as a keeper, but his CF D is not up to par, and the glut of LF'ers on this team seems to grow, every year. I do wonder what has been floated as returns for him, or what we might get by adding another piece, like Houck, Pivetta or even a high prospect like Mayer, not that we'd trade Mayer.

 

I'm fine with keeping Duran. There is a good chance one from Abreu and Rafaela don't earn a FT role. There is a lesser chance neither do. Anthony offers some hope for the future, and Bleis for the extended future, but how long must we wait?

 

How Soon Is Now?

 

[Bellhorn04]

I think Duran has real potential to be the player we saw for half a season, last year. He's not the same kid we saw 2+ years ago. He is hard to project, as he has changed and re-tooled his game a few times already.

 

His 5 years of control at reasonable rates seem to make him a lock as a keeper, but his CF D is not up to par, and the glut of LF'ers on this team seems to grow, every year. I do wonder what has been floated as returns for him, or what we might get by adding another piece, like Houck, Pivetta or even a high prospect like Mayer, not that we'd trade Mayer.

 

I'm fine with keeping Duran. There is a good chance one from Abreu and Rafaela don't earn a FT role. There is a lesser chance neither do. Anthony offers some hope for the future, and Bleis for the extended future, but how long must we wait?

 

How Soon Is Now?

 

 

Now might be next year. Or it might not.

[mvp 78]

I could see those three but with O’Neill and Abreu flipped…

 

Hard to say where they'll be slotted

 

Of guys with over 50 throws, Abreu had the #10 strongest arm in MLB last year. +1 Fielder Runs in 51 attempts. O'Neill was a 0 in about 200 attempts. O'Neill is faster than Abreu though.

[mvp 78]

O'Neil is not staying fit for 150 games. We'll be lucky to get 100 out of him.

 

There's also always some unanticipated injury. Just because it looks like a roster crunch now, doesn't mean there is really an issue.

[mvp 78]

Now might be next year. Or it might not.

 

Now is the year to figure out if it's worth keeping Abreu/Rafaela/Duran around for the long term.

[Bellhorn04]

Now is the year to figure out if it's worth keeping Abreu/Rafaela/Duran around for the long term.

 

Definitely a good year for tryouts and look-sees!

[mvp 78]

Definitely a good year for tryouts and look-sees!

 

It's why I don't see a reason to put Rafaela back in AAA. He won't learn anything there. He's not going to become a patient hitter in 45 games in AAA. It didn't work at the start of last season. It won't work this season. Just let him do what he does.

[Hitch]

True, but this would be possible templates. Less time for O'Neill and more for Rafaela & Abreu is an easy choice, unless one or both are stinking up the place.

 

(This might be why we are keeping Refsnyder around and are reluctant to trade Duran.)

 

No point giving away Refsnyder. Dirt cheap, serviceable 5th option. And as Bel says, Duran is only going for top quality pitching, which we don't seem to be able to make happen.

 

I hope the fan base is ready to be patient and accept plenty of teething issues with Rafaela offence wise.

[Hitch]

There's also always some unanticipated injury. Just because it looks like a roster crunch now, doesn't mean there is really an issue.

 

Yeah, agreed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No point giving away Refsnyder. Dirt cheap, serviceable 5th option. And as Bel says, Duran is only going for top quality pitching, which we don't seem to be able to make happen.

 

I hope the fan base is ready to be patient and accept plenty of teething issues with Rafaela offence wise.

 

Of the projected starting line-up, here's what fanbases watched last year: Wong and Story struck out 1 of every 3 at bats, Casas, Duran, O'Neill 1 of every 4, Abreu/Rafaela in between -- so all those guys whiffed at least once a game. Only Yoshida, Grissom and Devers had less than 1 K for every 5 ABs...

 

Let's just say we're used to it.

[Dipre]

The Red Sox were in the bottom half in strikeouts as a team last year. What's your point?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox were in the bottom half in strikeouts as a team last year. What's your point?

 

Do you care if Rafaela strikes out in every game, like 70% of his teammates do? I don't, and I hate strikeouts. Last year's Red Sox may have been better than half the teams at making contact, but Verdugo and Turner were certainly a big part of that.

 

But I can live with Ceddanne if -- as every prospect report indicates -- he'll have more positive impact on defense than everyone else on the roster (except maybe Story).

 

Playing Rafaela in CF all season is one easy way to improve the horrid D, for the cost of a league minimum salary. His bat isn't going to make or break this team either way.

[moonslav59]

No point giving away Refsnyder. Dirt cheap, serviceable 5th option. And as Bel says, Duran is only going for top quality pitching, which we don't seem to be able to make happen.

 

I hope the fan base is ready to be patient and accept plenty of teething issues with Rafaela offence wise.

 

Unless some OF'er gets hurt, it looks like Rafaela starts in AAA. That would allow Ref to keep his bench role and plus bat vs LHPs on the bench.

 

I guess, there is a chance Rafaela beats out Abreu, this spring, and Wilyer starts in AAA.

 

There are no playtime issues with one fo the kids in AAA. There are issues with who plays CF, since nobody is a plus on D, there, but using Duran and Abreu in CF would not be the end of the world.

[Hitch]

Chris Cotillo

@ChrisCotillo

·

1h

New at MassLive: In a conversation Wednesday, Brayan Bello said he's actively engaged with the Red Sox on extension talks and that things may be heating up. Is a deal close? "Mas o menos."

 

Possible good news on the way.

[moonslav59]

Chris Cotillo

@ChrisCotillo

·

1h

New at MassLive: In a conversation Wednesday, Brayan Bello said he's actively engaged with the Red Sox on extension talks and that things may be heating up. Is a deal close? "Mas o menos."

 

Possible good news on the way.

 

We need some good news.

[notin]

Do you care if Rafaela strikes out in every game, like 70% of his teammates do? I don't, and I hate strikeouts. Last year's Red Sox may have been better than half the teams at making contact, but Verdugo and Turner were certainly a big part of that.

 

But I can live with Ceddanne if -- as every prospect report indicates -- he'll have more positive impact on defense than everyone else on the roster (except maybe Story).

 

Playing Rafaela in CF all season is one easy way to improve the horrid D, for the cost of a league minimum salary. His bat isn't going to make or break this team either way.

 

Yoshida (14%) and Devers (19%) were also a big part of it…

[notin]

Unless some OF'er gets hurt, it looks like Rafaela starts in AAA. That would allow Ref to keep his bench role and plus bat vs LHPs on the bench.

 

I guess, there is a chance Rafaela beats out Abreu, this spring, and Wilyer starts in AAA.

 

There are no playtime issues with one fo the kids in AAA. There are issues with who plays CF, since nobody is a plus on D, there, but using Duran and Abreu in CF would not be the end of the world.

 

 

It looks like, unless they actually add that other RHH outfielder that has been dominating the top of the Priority List for two months now, that only one of Rafaela or Abreu starts the season in Boston. Barring injuries, of course…

[mvp 78]

No point giving away Refsnyder. Dirt cheap, serviceable 5th option. And as Bel says, Duran is only going for top quality pitching, which we don't seem to be able to make happen.

 

I hope the fan base is ready to be patient and accept plenty of teething issues with Rafaela offence wise.

 

If they were moving Refsnyder, it was because they were going to bring in another OF bat. Not sure they are going to do that now.

[mvp 78]

Of the projected starting line-up, here's what fanbases watched last year: Wong and Story struck out 1 of every 3 at bats, Casas, Duran, O'Neill 1 of every 4, Abreu/Rafaela in between -- so all those guys whiffed at least once a game. Only Yoshida, Grissom and Devers had less than 1 K for every 5 ABs...

 

Let's just say we're used to it.

 

Story had a 37% k rate the first month after coming back from the IL. No way was he going to get his numbers back to normal after that. Let's see what it looks like this year now that he's "healthy." He used to be a 25% k rate guy, but it bumped up to over 30% in BOS.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox were in the bottom half in strikeouts as a team last year. What's your point?

 

Justin Turner's 18% k rate isn't walking through that door.

[mvp 78]

Unless some OF'er gets hurt, it looks like Rafaela starts in AAA. That would allow Ref to keep his bench role and plus bat vs LHPs on the bench.

 

I guess, there is a chance Rafaela beats out Abreu, this spring, and Wilyer starts in AAA.

 

There are no playtime issues with one fo the kids in AAA. There are issues with who plays CF, since nobody is a plus on D, there, but using Duran and Abreu in CF would not be the end of the world.

 

C - Wong, McGuire

1B - Casas, Dalbec

2B - Grissom, Reyes

SS - Story

3B - Devers

DH - Masa

5 OFers - Duran (L), Rafaela ®, Abreu (L), O'Neilllll ®, Refsnyder ®

 

That's one extra player. Either Dalbec, Refsnyder or Rafaela goes. Now that the Sox have potentially Rafaela and O'Neillllll in the OF as RHB (along with Dalbec's career 855 vs LHP and corner OF usage in AAA), what is the need for Refsnyder?

 

Refsnyder will turn 33 in May, can't hit RHP at all and doesn't play any defense. I don't see the point in keeping him around.

[mvp 78]

Chris Cotillo

@ChrisCotillo

·

1h

New at MassLive: In a conversation Wednesday, Brayan Bello said he's actively engaged with the Red Sox on extension talks and that things may be heating up. Is a deal close? "Mas o menos."

 

Possible good news on the way.

 

It depends on the terms to me. I'd rather they lock up Casas.

[moonslav59]

C - Wong, McGuire

1B - Casas, Dalbec

2B - Grissom, Reyes

SS - Story

3B - Devers

DH - Masa

5 OFers - Duran (L), Rafaela ®, Abreu (L), O'Neilllll ®, Refsnyder ®

 

That's one extra player. Either Dalbec, Refsnyder or Rafaela goes. Now that the Sox have potentially Rafaela and O'Neillllll in the OF as RHB (along with Dalbec's career 855 vs LHP and corner OF usage in AAA), what is the need for Refsnyder?

 

Refsnyder will turn 33 in May, can't hit RHP at all and doesn't play any defense. I don't see the point in keeping him around.

 

Give Ref a 1B mitt.

 

It's hard to be much worse than Dalbec on D.

[notin]

Justin Turner's 18% k rate isn't walking through that door.

 

Unless they sign Gio Urshela…

[notin]

C - Wong, McGuire

1B - Casas, Dalbec

2B - Grissom, Reyes

SS - Story

3B - Devers

DH - Masa

5 OFers - Duran (L), Rafaela ®, Abreu (L), O'Neilllll ®, Refsnyder ®

 

That's one extra player. Either Dalbec, Refsnyder or Rafaela goes. Now that the Sox have potentially Rafaela and O'Neillllll in the OF as RHB (along with Dalbec's career 855 vs LHP and corner OF usage in AAA), what is the need for Refsnyder?

 

Refsnyder will turn 33 in May, can't hit RHP at all and doesn't play any defense. I don't see the point in keeping him around.

 

He plays baseball for like $1.5mill. That’s a valuable skill on this team…

[mvp 78]

Give Ref a 1B mitt.

 

It's hard to be much worse than Dalbec on D.

 

Their career OPS splits aren't all that different. Refsnyder has played 1B, but not 3B. Dalbec > Refsnyder going forward. Refsnyder vintage '22 is better than Dalbec, but we aren't seeing that again just like we aren't seeing Dalbec vintage '20 again.

[mvp 78]

He plays baseball for like $1.5mill. That’s a valuable skill on this team…

 

He's a platoon bat only like Enmanuel Valdez. Easy enough to ignore.

[moonslav59]

Their career OPS splits aren't all that different. Refsnyder has played 1B, but not 3B. Dalbec > Refsnyder going forward. Refsnyder vintage '22 is better than Dalbec, but we aren't seeing that again just like we aren't seeing Dalbec vintage '20 again.

 

If Ref can play 1B about the same as Dalbec, he'd get the 26th slot, IMO, due to his ability to play OF after PH'ing.

 

His OPS splits since 2022 blow Bobby Dee away.

[mvp 78]

If Ref can play 1B about the same as Dalbec, he'd get the 26th slot, IMO, due to his ability to play OF after PH'ing.

 

His OPS splits since 2022 blow Bobby Dee away.

 

3B backup is Reyes who only played there 13 innings last season?

[moonslav59]

3B backup is Reyes who only played there 13 innings last season?

 

I'd say yes, and he likely is not worse than Devers.