The Red Sox starting rotation -- long term

[Randy Red Sox]

How did thread about our rotation turn into this discussion??

In Casas' case, it's probably a snowball effect due to his struggles on offense. In Duran's case, he's put in the work, he's put on the hours, he stays hungry, he devours.

[moonslav59]

How did thread about our rotation turn into this discussion??

 

It happens, often.

[mvp 78]

And Duran's fWAR is still 1.6 higher than Casas's.

 

Give Casas 200 more AB's to catch up.

[Randy Red Sox]

there are plenty of other threads for this discussion. i came here to read about the pitching beyond 2023. hopefully Bloom realizes we have enough SS in our system and instead drafts the best available PITCHER in this June draft.

It happens, often.

[Dipre]

there are plenty of other threads for this discussion. i came here to read about the pitching beyond 2023. hopefully Bloom realizes we have enough SS in our system and instead drafts the best available PITCHER in this June draft.

 

This thread is about the rotation, not prospects or drafts. Please take that discussion to the assigned thread

[mvp 78]

How did thread about our rotation turn into this discussion??

 

We never stay on topic.

[moonslav59]

This thread is about the rotation, not prospects or drafts. Please take that discussion to the assigned thread

 

This post is off topic!

 

[Dipre]

This post is off topic!

 

 

I will take it to the appropriate thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not even remotely the same case. Duran and Casas torched the minors before getting called up. Rafaela is getting dominated by kids who can barely throw strikes. I don't know how else to say this, other than it's common sense.

 

Last year's OPS from the minors: Casas .889, Rafaela .880, Duran .840. Looks to me that all three were successful -- and comparable.

 

All three struggled at the plate the past month, with Ceddanne still at Double A. When I saw him live at a game he swung at every pitch. I can see how that could be considered a mental issue. Of the three players, though, he's the only one who is considered an above-average defender, and that's why notin suggested promoting him.

 

Swinging and missing at big league pitching can be demoralizing, but making a few spectacular catches and hearing 30,000 fans cheer can be an ego-boost, as well.

 

I want Bloom to trade one of these two outfielders today for an under-30 pitcher with upside. There, back on topic.

[mvp 78]

Rafaela's '22 numbers are a little skewed by his 962 OPS in High A (with a 24.4% k rate). It's clear he's much too good for that level. He still has to find long term success at AA.

[Dipre]

Rafaela's '22 numbers are a little skewed by his 962 OPS in High A (with a 24.4% k rate). It's clear he's much too good for that level. He still has to find long term success at AA.

 

Don't let facts deter you from arguing friend. Rafaela.is just fine, even though it's clear he can't handle AA pitching.

[Bellhorn04]

We never stay on topic.

 

It's just one big thread.

[moonslav59]

It's just one big thread.

 

We have 2 on the rotation with slight variances in focus.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Could the Red Sox look something like this in 2024?

 

1b: Casas

2b: Yorke

Ss: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Yoshida

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Valdez/Turner

 

4th OF: Duran

 

Trade: Verdugo

 

Starting rotation:

Whitlock

Bello

Houck

???

???

 

In free agency, spend big on two starting pitchers.

 

The Red Sox really need Casas to develop, but I'm worried about him. If we could redo the offseason, I would want the Red Sox to trade Casas for a young starter. If Casas turns into a bust, the Red Sox will need a 1b next year. Blaze won't be ready next year. Hopefully, Casas will show some major improvement before the 2023 season is over.

 

Also, I'm not counting on Sale in 2024. He is a sunk cost. Maybe I would move him to the bullpen. Either way, can't count on him.

 

Mayer and Blaze will be ready in 2025.

[moonslav59]

Could the Red Sox look something like this in 2024?

 

1b: Casas

2b: Yorke

Ss: Story

3b: Devers

LF: Yoshida

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu

DH: Valdez/Turner

 

4th OF: Duran

 

Trade: Verdugo

 

Starting rotation:

Whitlock

Bello

Houck

???

???

 

In free agency, spend big on two starting pitchers.

 

The Red Sox really need Casas to develop, but I'm worried about him. If we could redo the offseason, I would want the Red Sox to trade Casas for a young starter. If Casas turns into a bust, the Red Sox will need a 1b next year. Blaze won't be ready next year. Hopefully, Casas will show some major improvement before the 2023 season is over.

 

Also, I'm not counting on Sale in 2024. He is a sunk cost. Maybe I would move him to the bullpen. Either way, can't count on him.

 

Mayer and Blaze will be ready in 2025.

 

C Wong/ McGuire

OF Refsnyder

 

Maybe 4thSP Crawford or Wink.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

woops, How could I overlook our two stud catchers! Yeah, I would put Winckowski in the Starting Rotation this season (2023), since the Red Sox aren't seriously competing this year and see how he does. It is possible he could be part of the starting rotation next year. I like Crawford as the swing guy, the 6th starter.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

It'll be fun to watch the young players over the next few seasons--Rafaela and Yorke in 2024 and Mayer and Blaze in 2025. They Red Sox are doing a nice job developing a new core of position players, but they will need to find some SPs in free agency and I'm wondering about Casas, will he be a long term answer or not?

 

Of course, it is possible that things will not go all that smoothly for Rafaela, Yorke, Mayer, and Blaze. They could struggle just like Casas is struggling now and make us wonder if they can succeed at the highest level.

[moonslav59]

I like Whitlock, Houck, Crawford and Wink in the pen, and what a unique and powerful thing it would be. Maybe revolutionary, even, but I doubt we can ever have that luxury, even with a 30 start season from Sale.

 

We’d have to add 4 SPers or hope Pivetta can return to plus 5th starter status. Then it would still be 3!

 

That would be expensive, either by money or prospects traded away- or both.

[Randy Red Sox]

If anyone thinks that a rotation of Bello, Whitlock, Crawford, Houck, and Winkowski is NEAR good enough to compete I have some property to sell you. Of course couple that with the addition of Jordan . Mayer, and Yorke and Henry will be skipping cartwheels at the payroll $$ saved. Sad but that has been the plan all along..

woops, How could I overlook our two stud catchers! Yeah, I would put Winckowski in the Starting Rotation this season (2023), since the Red Sox aren't seriously competing this year and see how he does. It is possible he could be part of the starting rotation next year. I like Crawford as the swing guy, the 6th starter.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Randy Red Sox

[moonslav59]

If anyone thinks that a rotation of Bello, Whitlock, Crawford, Houck, and Winkowski is NEAR good enough to compete I have some property to sell you. Of course couple that with the addition of Jordan . Mayer, and Yorke and Henry will be skipping cartwheels at the payroll $$ saved. Sad but that has been the plan all along..

 

Bello could be a solid #2, but I'd prefer counting on him as our #3, next year.

 

I'd prefer the rest anchor a great pen: Whitlock, Houck, Wink, Craw, Schreiber, Martin & Jansen.

 

That means we need a 1, 2, 4, & 5, but my guess is at least 1-2 of those first 4 will be starters. JH will pray Sale is back as the #1 or #2.

 

How many teams add 3 SP'ers in an off season and go on to a ring?

[Nick]

Whitlock and Houck are starters.

 

No one has mentioned Winckowski returning as a starter. No one from the Sox organization anyway.

 

Funny how Moon was big advocate of Pivetta as #5 yet he doesn't think Whitlock nor Houck can fulfill that role?

 

Crwaford should be a long reliever.

 

I think we have 2 3 and 4 covered. At worst 3 4 and 5 if that pleases people on this board.

 

Sox brass thinks highly of Bello Houck and Whit.

 

And that matters more than what we think.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Question is an ace to be with 10 year projection worth trading Mayer and other player pieces and giving out $30M long term contract when the team controlled years expire?

[Hugh2]

Urias, Yama, Ohtani all free agents next year. There’s no way this team should trade away its farm for an Ace. Go out and buy a guy to headline Bello, Houck, Whitlock

[Hugh2]

I like Houck in the pen too, but I’m curious to see how he can develop as a starter.

 

Wink stays in the pen. He’s the classic example of a guy who can’t cut it as a starter, but his stuff takes a big step up when you simplify your arsenal and can dial it up out of the pen. Sox actually have a nice young core I’d pitching if they can add 2 starters. One of them being an ACE. Seems fitting there’s a nice market for ACES this offseason

[cp176]

Bello - Houck - and maybe Whitlock = starters moving forward I think. I don't think that there is much to get excited about just yet for sure. Historically I also think that we have over rated our young players. We obviously have more players with potential in or farm system since we have not traded for anyone with hopes of making the team that counts any better. There are obviously different ways to get the job done. I hope that the way we are currently doing things work. Also, i think that Hernandez is a valuable player but if he is yarded out there in the shortstop position again, the definition of stupid comes in to play once again.

[mvp 78]

Urias, Yama, Ohtani all free agents next year. There’s no way this team should trade away its farm for an Ace. Go out and buy a guy to headline Bello, Houck, Whitlock

 

The difference is that you'll be bidding along with a bunch of other teams to get that FA. In the trade market, you can get the guy at a below market deal for guys that may not ever turn into anything special and then extend that starter at a rate less than what you'd spend on Urias et al.

[notin]

Question is an ace to be with 10 year projection worth trading Mayer and other player pieces and giving out $30M long term contract when the team controlled years expire?

 

Probably not. Starting pitching is only one way - and clearly the most expensive way - to win.

 

Look at this years top teams. Tampa has maybe 3 actual SP (4 if Rasmussen is healthy). They certainly have one guy (McClanahan) everyone would call an ace.. They use starters and bullpen arms a lot. Baltimore has no pitcher anyone would call an ace, and probably no SP most would consider a #2. Texas went out and bought an ace. He’s out for the year. But are getting by with other acquisitions and a ridiculously good defense.

 

These are the best teams. Two have aces. All 3 have great defense, which is their common thread…

[Bellhorn04]

The difference is that you'll be bidding along with a bunch of other teams to get that FA. In the trade market, you can get the guy at a below market deal for guys that may not ever turn into anything special and then extend that starter at a rate less than what you'd spend on Urias et al.

 

And there's significant cost and risk either way.

[Dipre]

The difference is that you'll be bidding along with a bunch of other teams to get that FA. In the trade market, you can get the guy at a below market deal for guys that may not ever turn into anything special and then extend that starter at a rate less than what you'd spend on Urias et al.

 

Still competing with other teams to acquire talent, but at a talent + money cost instead of just money.

[Bellhorn04]

Probably not. Starting pitching is only one way - and clearly the most expensive way - to win.

 

Look at this years top teams. Tampa has maybe 3 actual SP (4 if Rasmussen is healthy). They certainly have one guy (McClanahan) everyone would call an ace.. They use starters and bullpen arms a lot. Baltimore has no pitcher anyone would call an ace, and probably no SP most would consider a #2. Texas went out and bought an ace. He’s out for the year. But are getting by with other acquisitions and a ridiculously good defense.

 

These are the best teams. Two have aces. All 3 have great defense, which is their common thread…

 

Seems Bloom kind of went in the wrong direction with the defense part...