The Red Sox starting rotation -- long term

[Hugh2]

The difference is that you'll be bidding along with a bunch of other teams to get that FA. In the trade market, you can get the guy at a below market deal for guys that may not ever turn into anything special and then extend that starter at a rate less than what you'd spend on Urias et al.

 

I get that, but I don't think it's the difference you think it's. It's different, but there's not difference (if that makes sense). If a guy is on the trading block, you're competing in the market for him as well. Do we really think that the Red Sox were the only team in the market for Chris Sale when they traded for him?

 

Yes, you have to pay the guy money, but you gotta pay someone that money. If you want to trade for a true ACE, you can say goodbye to guys like Mayer/Bleis/Anthony (although I'm sure a team would want some pitching prospects as well. So a package more like (Bello/Mayer/Anthony) likely gets you the deal.

 

Yes, now you don't have to pay that guy, except in 2-3 years you probably do anyways, and now you have to pay to replace Bello, you will have to spend money on a SS now, and probably an outfielder too.

 

Next years free agent class is good for starting pitchers. In my opinion, it would be very unwise to sit on the sidelines. You have also just reset, and have a boatload of money coming off the books sitting well below the cap. Houck/Bello/Whitlock would look pretty amazing with a true ace leading them AND knowing we will have Mayer behind them in a year.

 

You can't buy a winning team with money alone, the Mets are proving that this year, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't strike when the iron is hot either. Next year is shaping up to be the right time to go big for starting pitching for this Sox team. It makes all the sense in the world.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Seems Bloom kind of went in the wrong direction with the defense part...

 

Yet someone will defend him.

[Dipre]

Yet someone will defend him.

 

That's punny.

[notin]

Seems Bloom kind of went in the wrong direction with the defense part...

 

Yeah he had the pieces for a much better defense. But not replacing Story with a (healthy) SS had a significant trickle-down effect…

[Dipre]

Yeah he had the pieces for a much better defense. But not replacing Story with a (healthy) SS had a significant trickle-down effect…

 

They should have never signed Story. Howboudat?

[notin]

They should have never signed Story. Howboudat?

 

Story was my least favorite from that SS free agent class. The only reason I liked that deal was it killed the notion the Sox were done spending big on free agents.

 

The guy is a good player and a solid defensive SS when healthy. His fWAR was comparable to Bogaerts. But he’s struggled to stay on the field in Boston, which he never did in Colorado…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They should have never signed Story. Howboudat?

 

The position player version of an overpaid Sale damaged goods/IL waiting to happen?

 

Yep.

[notin]

The position player version of an overpaid Sale damaged goods/IL waiting to happen?

 

Yep.

 

Unlike Sale, Story had virtually no IL time in his career before signing in Boston…

[Bellhorn04]

Unlike Sale, Story had virtually no IL time in his career before signing in Boston…

 

True, but there was a red flag with his elbow, or a dark pink one at least...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

True, but there was a red flag with his elbow, or a dark pink one at least...

 

Liked an image.

[notin]

True, but there was a red flag with his elbow, or a dark pink one at least...

 

That was mitigated by playing him at 2b, which worked out to perfection defensively.

 

But once he went down in December, Bloom had plenty of time to get a replacement. And while Mondesi is a terrific talent that got displaced in KC, if your problem is SS injuries, he’s not the ideal solution. Iglesias was out there. Ditto the much better Elvis Andrus. Not sure why either was ignored.

 

Maybe they knew what they had in Chang? I don’t dungs it likely considering how long they stick with Kike at SS before giving Chang a chance. I like Duvall as a player, but through some re-arranging, it turns out he was the replacement for Story.

 

Andrus at SS, Kike in CF is a good defensive start.

 

As much as the Bradley acquisition was trashed, was there really anything wrong defensively with the Verdugo-Hernandez-Bradley OF? So much better than Yoshida-Duvall-Verdugo.

[Dipre]

But he did have his worst full season since his breakout 2018 with an .801 OPS and 102 OPS+, had .738 career OPS outside of Coors field, and his arm had declined year to year from 2020 to 2021. There were warning signs.

[notin]

Even now, if the Sox played:

 

C - Wong

1b - Turner

2b - Hernandez

SS - Reyes (and Chang when healthy)

3b - Devers

LF - Verdugo

CF - Duran

RF - Duvall

DH - Yoshida

 

That’s not a terrible defense. It’s not elite but it would be a MASSIVE improvement over any alignment the Sox currently use. (Rafaela would upgrade SS, but that ain’t happening.)

 

Id like to keep Casas in there and would even demote Duran, but that leaves Turner at 2b. Ten years ago, I could see putting him there. But not today…

[notin]

But he did have his worst full season since his breakout 2018 with an .801 OPS and 102 OPS+, had .738 career OPS outside of Coors field, and his arm had declined year to year from 2020 to 2021. There were warning signs.

 

His OPS sway from Coors was apparently the same as Bogaets’ OPS away from Fenway. And Story crushed him in defensive metrics…

[Dipre]

His OPS sway from Coors was apparently the same as Bogaets’ OPS away from Fenway. And Story crushed him in defensive metrics…

 

Absolutely, but Bogaert's weaknesses don't excuse Story's. And was he a 160 MM player with that platform year, specially to play 2B? I don't think so.

[mvp 78]

I get that, but I don't think it's the difference you think it's. It's different, but there's not difference (if that makes sense). If a guy is on the trading block, you're competing in the market for him as well. Do we really think that the Red Sox were the only team in the market for Chris Sale when they traded for him?

 

Yes, you have to pay the guy money, but you gotta pay someone that money. If you want to trade for a true ACE, you can say goodbye to guys like Mayer/Bleis/Anthony (although I'm sure a team would want some pitching prospects as well. So a package more like (Bello/Mayer/Anthony) likely gets you the deal.

 

Yes, now you don't have to pay that guy, except in 2-3 years you probably do anyways, and now you have to pay to replace Bello, you will have to spend money on a SS now, and probably an outfielder too.

 

Next years free agent class is good for starting pitchers. In my opinion, it would be very unwise to sit on the sidelines. You have also just reset, and have a boatload of money coming off the books sitting well below the cap. Houck/Bello/Whitlock would look pretty amazing with a true ace leading them AND knowing we will have Mayer behind them in a year.

 

You can't buy a winning team with money alone, the Mets are proving that this year, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't strike when the iron is hot either. Next year is shaping up to be the right time to go big for starting pitching for this Sox team. It makes all the sense in the world.

 

Sorry, I'm disagreeing with you and Dipre on this. It's better business to sell prospects for an ace and extend than go via FA. Money has been thrown around like crazy lately and I don't really agree with the assertion that you're competing with the same amount of teams in a trade market.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock and Houck are starters.

 

No one has mentioned Winckowski returning as a starter. No one from the Sox organization anyway.

 

Funny how Moon was big advocate of Pivetta as #5 yet he doesn't think Whitlock nor Houck can fulfill that role?

 

Crwaford should be a long reliever.

 

I think we have 2 3 and 4 covered. At worst 3 4 and 5 if that pleases people on this board.

 

Sox brass thinks highly of Bello Houck and Whit.

 

And that matters more than what we think.

 

I did not say Whitlock and Houck cannot fill the role or be better than Pivetta. Both have shown they are much better in the pen, and I'd like to keep them there.

 

Pivetta was a very good 5th starter for a little more than 2 years. He sucked, this year. I guess I shoulda known.

 

We are not going to add 3-4 solid SP'ers, next winter, so Houck and Whitlock will start. If we go cheap, Crawford might, too.

 

To me, we'd be a much better team with all those guys in the pen and 4 new starters to go with Bello. Sale should never be counted on to fill a slot.

[mvp 78]

Still competing with other teams to acquire talent, but at a talent + money cost instead of just money.

 

When they sign Urias for 10 years, it'll JUST BE FOR MONEY then...

[moonslav59]

Urias, Yama, Ohtani all free agents next year. There’s no way this team should trade away its farm for an Ace. Go out and buy a guy to headline Bello, Houck, Whitlock

 

What success has "buying the headline" been in the past few years?

 

I'm thinking under 50 ot even 40%.

[Dipre]

When they sign Urias for 10 years, it'll JUST BE FOR MONEY then...

 

Or you don't. And you sign the Yam man.

[moonslav59]

Yet someone will defend him.

 

Who?

[mvp 78]

Or you don't. And you sign the Yam man.

 

Not a chance. We don't get the top shelf stuff.

[Dipre]

Not a chance. We don't get the top shelf stuff.

 

We got Yoshida. He's like Chivas Regal 18 years. Now we'll get the Yam man, the Maker's Mark of pitchers.

[mvp 78]

We got Yoshida. He's like Chivas Regal 18 years. Now we'll get the Yam man, the Maker's Mark of pitchers.

 

At least make him Maker's Mark 46...

[Dipre]

At least make him Maker's Mark 46...

 

I stand corrected, the Maker's Mark 46 of pitchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Sorry, I'm disagreeing with you and Dipre on this. It's better business to sell prospects for an ace and extend than go via FA. Money has been thrown around like crazy lately and I don't really agree with the assertion that you're competing with the same amount of teams in a trade market.

 

Castillo seems like a good template for what a trade and extend would cost.

[Bellhorn04]

What success has "buying the headline" been in the past few years?

 

I'm thinking under 50 ot even 40%.

 

I think Theo Epstein said a success rate of 50% or over on free agents is excellent, or words to that effect.

[Bellhorn04]

We got Yoshida. He's like Chivas Regal 18 years. Now we'll get the Yam man, the Maker's Mark of pitchers.

 

IMO the jury is still out on whether Yoshida will prove to be a good value signing. His fWAR stands at 0.9. Not exactly setting the world on fire with that number.

[Dipre]

IMO the jury is still out on whether Yoshida will prove to be a good value signing. His fWAR stands at 0.9. Not exactly setting the world on fire with that number.

 

It's been two months and a couple of days.

[Hugh2]

Sorry, I'm disagreeing with you and Dipre on this. It's better business to sell prospects for an ace and extend than go via FA. Money has been thrown around like crazy lately and I don't really agree with the assertion that you're competing with the same amount of teams in a trade market.

 

Don't apologize for having an opinion. Apologize for being completely wrong on this.

 

I get it, I'm not opposed to your strategy either, but I'd rather make a move like that when both the farm and the system is rolling, which is not the case. We are still building for the future and while I agree that takes investment I just have a different opinion here.

 

I'd be all in on Ohtani and/or Yama next year.