The Red Sox starting rotation -- long term

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As a 22 year old guy....he'd probably love all that.

 

As a 64-old guy, I'd just like it.

[notin]

Fact is, Mayer will probably reach BOS before Rafaela.

 

That might also be because Duran has made Rafaela that much more expendable and a potential trade candidate…

[moonslav59]

That might also be because Duran has made Rafaela that much more expendable and a potential trade candidate…

 

I'm not so sure about Duran, but the much improved D has increased his value.

 

Rafaela does seem like a high trade candidate, because Mayer is seen as a big part of our future.

[mvp 78]

That might also be because Duran has made Rafaela that much more expendable and a potential trade candidate…

 

Not with how Duran has hit since May started.

[Dipre]

Man, why are y'all so down on Duran? Give my man a chance.

[Dipre]

How can a big league promotion ruin Rafaela with instant career improvements: better ballparks with better lighting, bigger crowds, first-class travel and hotels, and an increase in daily meal money from $25 to $117 (real restaurants, no more fastfood).

 

Not to mention, a slight raise in wages -- Double A minimum $27K to MLB minimum $720K -- and the groupies... oh.

 

Because that's not how player development works. You throw a kid who hasn't shown he can handle AA pitching at MLB pitchers, and they'll crush him. A large component of hitting is mental. Throw a kid at the wolves, and he may never be able to mentally adjust and make good swing decisions, which the guy's not even making right now in MiLB.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Because that's not how player development works. You throw a kid who hasn't shown he can handle AA pitching at MLB pitchers, and they'll crush him. A large component of hitting is mental. Throw a kid at the wolves, and he may never be able to mentally adjust and make good swing decisions, which the guy's not even making right now in MiLB.

 

You really think he'll stress about guys on a mound the same distance away as in the minors, when there'll be so many new choices to adjust to: filet mignon or the crab legs? silk pjs or robe? monogrammed hood ornament or racing stripes on the hot rod?

[Bellhorn04]

Man, why are y'all so down on Duran? Give my man a chance.

 

Yeah I don't really get bashing Duran either. His OPS is still above .800. Seems like our cherry-picking has gotten out of control.

[Dipre]

You really think he'll stress about guys on a mound the same distance away as in the minors, when there'll be so many new choices to adjust to: filet mignon or the crab legs? silk pjs or robe? monogrammed hood ornament or racing stripes on the hot rod?

 

Jesus Christ.

[mvp 78]

Man, why are y'all so down on Duran? Give my man a chance.

 

Since 5/5

 

547 OPS

32.6 k%

43 wRC+

 

Really struggling with fastballs. His percentile rankings on Statcast have fallen back to earth.

[mvp 78]

Yeah I don't really get bashing Duran either. His OPS is still above .800. Seems like our cherry-picking has gotten out of control.

 

You think he's playing well right now then?

[Hugh2]

The problem with someone like Duran is you only have a small sample size to go on, because he's so young. So yes, taking the last several weeks is cherry-picking, but given where he is in his career you can't help but wonder if he's turned back into a pumpkin, the league has figured him out. Question is....can he do anything about it? His improved defense has raised his floor in my book and that gives him a longer leash to figure it out. I'm certainly rooting for the kid.

[Bellhorn04]

You think he's playing well right now then?

 

No, he had a bad May, but since when do we give up on a young hitter who had a bad month but is still over .800 on the season? It's a game of adjustments and all that. If he sucks all through June it'll be a much different story.

[Dipre]

The problem with someone like Duran is you only have a small sample size to go on, because he's so young. So yes, taking the last several weeks is cherry-picking, but given where he is in his career you can't help but wonder if he's turned back into a pumpkin, the league has figured him out. Question is....can he do anything about it? His improved defense has raised his floor in my book and that gives him a longer leash to figure it out. I'm certainly rooting for the kid.

 

He's also above the 90th percentile in foot speed, an area where the Sox are very lackluster. Baseball is a game of adjustments, he adjusted, the league adjusted back. We have to wait and see if he can overcome this new approach pitchers are taking against him.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think many on here are rooting for Duran but he's really not a kid anymore. I believe he's 27 and based on one of his strengths being his speed he needs to bunt and steal bases more than he does.

[mvp 78]

The problem with someone like Duran is you only have a small sample size to go on, because he's so young. So yes, taking the last several weeks is cherry-picking, but given where he is in his career you can't help but wonder if he's turned back into a pumpkin, the league has figured him out. Question is....can he do anything about it? His improved defense has raised his floor in my book and that gives him a longer leash to figure it out. I'm certainly rooting for the kid.

 

It's not cherry picking because we've seen him be ineffective at the MLB level the previous 2 seasons. 687 OPS in 130 games. This is his third go around.

[mvp 78]

I think many on here are rooting for Duran but he's really not a kid anymore. I believe he's 27 and based on one of his strengths being his speed he needs to bunt and steal bases more than he does.

 

26, but I agree that he's not a very good base stealer. He runs the bases well because of his speed, but he's not a great base stealer. It's two different skillsets.

[Hugh2]

I think many on here are rooting for Duran but he's really not a kid anymore. I believe he's 27 and based on one of his strengths being his speed he needs to bunt and steal bases more than he does.

 

Hes 26 with not even a full MLB season's worth of at-bats......he's a kid to me.

[moonslav59]

No, he had a bad May, but since when do we give up on a young hitter who had a bad month but is still over .800 on the season? It's a game of adjustments and all that. If he sucks all through June it'll be a much different story.

 

Yes, it's too early to give up on Duran, but it's getting close to thinking platoon. (Maybe he should be, now.)

.618 v LHPs 2023

.503 v LHPs career

 

His much improved D has improved on his leash length, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Jesus Christ.

 

... first Superstar of the Seventies. And then SI made Reggie Jackson a "Superduperstar."

 

You know the old say: it's hard to make the majors, but even harder to stay there.

 

It's all about making adjustments. Duran finally successfully adjusted to the pitchers' book on him, but now he's got to adjust to the sequel. Casas is still trying edit his first book... and the Sox are showing proper patience.

[mvp 78]

Casas is 3 years younger and is showing signs of improvement over the last several weeks. Duran is going the opposite direction. I'm not saying it's time to send him to WOO, just to temper expectations. He's probably a 4th OFer at best.

[Dipre]

... first Superstar of the Seventies. And then SI made Reggie Jackson a "Superduperstar."

 

You know the old say: it's hard to make the majors, but even harder to stay there.

 

It's all about making adjustments. Duran finally successfully adjusted to the pitchers' book on him, but now he's got to adjust to the sequel. Casas is still trying edit his first book... and the Sox are showing proper patience.

 

Not even remotely the same case. Duran and Casas torched the minors before getting called up. Rafaela is getting dominated by kids who can barely throw strikes. I don't know how else to say this, other than it's common sense.

[Bellhorn04]

Casas is 3 years younger and is showing signs of improvement over the last several weeks. Duran is going the opposite direction. I'm not saying it's time to send him to WOO, just to temper expectations. He's probably a 4th OFer at best.

 

And Duran's fWAR is still 1.6 higher than Casas's.

[moonslav59]

Another thing to factor in is ages at minor league levels:

 

Duran reached A+ at 22 .999 in- 226 PAs

AA at age 22 (2020 missed) .635 in 352

AAA at at age 24 .851 in 641

 

Casas only had 7 PAs at A+ at age 19

Reached AA at age 21 .879 in 329

AAA at age 22 .863 in 359

 

Rafaela reached A+ at 20 .962 in 209

AA at 21 .771 in 499

 

[Bellhorn04]

Casas deserves time on O, but his D has been surprisingly bad. The net result is that he's been one of the worst players in baseball, unfortunately.

[Dipre]

Casas deserves time on O, but his D has been surprisingly bad. The net result is that he's been one of the worst players in baseball, unfortunately.

 

Needs time. He will come around.

[moonslav59]

Casas deserves time on O, but his D has been surprisingly bad. The net result is that he's been one of the worst players in baseball, unfortunately.

 

It's funny how Casas and McGuire were supposed to be good on D, and Duran and Wong not so good.

[Bellhorn04]

It's funny how Casas and McGuire were good on D, and Duran and Wong not so good.

 

True. And these defensive metrics can be a bit wonky, of course.

 

Speaking of McGuire, I was watching him catch Bello the other night, and he does have kind of a weird style of catching the ball. He shows the pitcher where he wants it, then moves his glove a lot, presumably to fool the batter. In any case, Bello was having a hell of a time hitting what seemed to be the target. But it was impossible to say if Mcguire had anything to do with it.

[Dipre]

It's funny how Casas and McGuire were supposed to be good on D, and Duran and Wong not so good.

 

In Casas' case, it's probably a snowball effect due to his struggles on offense. In Duran's case, he's put in the work, he's put on the hours, he stays hungry, he devours.

[moonslav59]

True. And these defensive metrics can be a bit wonky, of course.

 

Speaking of McGuire, I was watching him catch Bello the other night, and he does have kind of a weird style of catching the ball. He shows the pitcher where he wants it, then moves his glove a lot, presumably to fool the batter. In any case, Bello was having a hell of a time hitting what seemed to be the target. But it was impossible to say if Mcguire had anything to do with it.

 

You'd think, if the pitcher said something, he'd change that style.