A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The bottom is is a bunch of random strangers on a message board all (well, not really all) agreed this was a huge off-season for Bloom? And why exactly does that matter?

 

I think what you meant to say was “we all (well, not really all) agreed Bloom needs to prove something to us as a random group of strangers on a message board.” But that actually means surprisingly little to Bloom and Henry.

 

The reality is none of us knows what Henry expects from Bloom and for how long. And none of us knows whether or not Henry has gone all Bob Kraft and decided winning is nice but awfully expensive and maybe he can tolerate cheaper mediocrity for a while….

 

True, fans and media both said this was an important offseason and year for Bloom... but Red Sox ownership never said that.

 

Logically, we have to assume Bloom has been following orders. No competent GM would ever join a club, allow most stars to leave, and replace them with mediocrity, castoffs and damaged goods. And then get to keep his job with the promise it's going to be awesome.

 

Allowing the Sox to fade into quiet irrelevance won't affect the plan. Henry can still make a profit on summer tourists if my TV is shut off avoiding his unwatchable ballclub.

 

The only hope for changes towards legitimate improvement is to make noise. He doesn't like that...

[mvp 78]

Realistically, we should be happy to win one of the next two.

 

Realistic vs need?

 

Realistically they need Sale to turn his season around and start pitching well. Tonight would be a good time to start. Tomorrow would be a good time to increase Springs' ERA too.

[Hugh2]

We came into this series playing over .500 to a team on a historic run that hasn't lost one game yet. I'm not going to freak out over two losses. The team looked promising before these two games, these two games don't change that.

 

Tip of the hat to Tampa, I won't be surprised if this is their year. Also, I won't be surprised if we are sweeping THEM come September.

[moonslav59]

It’s certainly the lowest ranked in MLB for a while. But as the Henry Era is a couple decades old, we’ve seen lower payrolls back when everyone spent less…

 

Talking rank, yes.

 

We may end up spending at the deadline and moving up, but we'll see.

[Old Red]

We came into this series playing over .500 to a team on a historic run that hasn't lost one game yet. I'm not going to freak out over two losses. The team looked promising before these two games, these two games don't change that.

 

Tip of the hat to Tampa, I won't be surprised if this is their year. Also, I won't be surprised if we are sweeping THEM come September.

 

I think getting swept by the Pirates at home was a lot more telling about this club than sweeping the banjo hitting Tigers, so to say the Red Sox looked promising going into Tampa is something I don’t buy.

[moonslav59]

True, fans and media both said this was an important offseason and year for Bloom... but Red Sox ownership never said that.

 

Logically, we have to assume Bloom has been following orders. No competent GM would ever join a club, allow most stars to leave, and replace them with mediocrity, castoffs and damaged goods. And then get to keep his job with the promise it's going to be awesome.

 

Allowing the Sox to fade into quiet irrelevance won't affect the plan. Henry can still make a profit on summer tourists if my TV is shut off avoiding his unwatchable ballclub.

 

The only hope for changes towards legitimate improvement is to make noise. He doesn't like that...

 

They never said it, but when you look at the team spending, since Bloom took over, the change was enormous.

 

2020: We cut spending, and our biggest signing was Perez at $6M.

 

2021: We barely replaced who we lost, and nearly everyone was on a 1 year deal.

 

2022: Until the Story signing in March, it looked like a repeat of the ongoing pattern or 1 year deals.

 

Starting in March 2022, the spending in 13 months has way overshadowed all of the previous 2.9 year spending. COMBINED! You don't have to hear expectations rose from top brass to be know it has to be true.

 

NOV 2019 to MAR 2022 Contracts:

6M Perez

4M Pillar

3M Moreland

3M Peraza

1.5 Lucroy

10M Ricjards

8M Ottavino (trade)

14M/2 Kike

5M Perez II

3M Renfroe

3M Marwin

3M/2 Sawamura

2M Andriese

11M JBJ (trade)

8M/2 Diekman (traded away)

7M Wacha

10M/2 Paxton

5M Hill

3M Strahm

2M Robles

1.5 TShaw

 

$102M before the Story signing (2.9 offseasons)

 

$140M/6 Story ($242M over 3 off seasons)

 

April 2022>>

314M/10 Devers (starts in 2024)

80/5 Yoshida (not counting posting fee)

32/2 Jansen

22M/2 Turner (incl option)

19M/4 Whitlock

18M/2 Martin

10M Kluber

10M Kike (summer extensión)

7M Duvall

3M Mondesi (trade)

2M J Rod

 

$203M, not counting Devers or Story

 

$343M spent since the Story signing.

 

$657M spent, counting Story and Devers vs $202M in the 2.9 years prior to the Story signing.

 

If this is a "tank," then I need to rethink the meaning of the word.

[Old Red]

Realistic vs need?

 

Realistically they need Sale to turn his season around and start pitching well. Tonight would be a good time to start. Tomorrow would be a good time to increase Springs' ERA too.

 

Sale got knocked around by a good hitting O’s club, and looked a little better against a weak hitting banjo lineup in Detroit. A Sale day, or A For Sale Day we will find out tonight.

[moonslav59]

They never said it, but when you look at the team spending, since Bloom took over, the change was enormous.

 

2020: We cut spending, and our biggest signing was Perez at $6M.

 

2021: We barely replaced who we lost, and nearly everyone was on a 1 year deal.

 

2022: Until the Story signing in March, it looked like a repeat of the ongoing pattern or 1 year deals.

 

Starting in March 2022, the spending in 13 months has way overshadowed all of the previous 2.9 year spending. COMBINED! You don't have to hear expectations rose from top brass to be know it has to be true.

 

NOV 2019 to MAR 2022 Contracts:

6M Perez

4M Pillar

3M Moreland

3M Peraza

1.5 Lucroy

10M Ricjards

8M Ottavino (trade)

14M/2 Kike

5M Perez II

3M Renfroe

3M Marwin

3M/2 Sawamura

2M Andriese

11M JBJ (trade)

8M/2 Diekman (traded away)

7M Wacha

10M/2 Paxton

5M Hill

3M Strahm

2M Robles

1.5 TShaw

 

$102M before the Story signing (2.9 offseasons)

 

$140M/6 Story ($242M over 3 off seasons)

 

April 2022>>

314M/10 Devers (starts in 2024)

80/5 Yoshida (not counting posting fee)

32/2 Jansen

22M/2 Turner (incl option)

19M/4 Whitlock

18M/2 Martin

10M Kluber

10M Kike (summer extensión)

7M Duvall

3M Mondesi (trade)

2M J Rod

 

$203M, not counting Devers or Story

 

$343M spent since the Story signing.

 

$657M spent, counting Story and Devers vs $202M in the 2.9 years prior to the Story signing.

 

If this is a "tank," then I need to rethink the meaning of the word.

 

$242M first 3 full offseasons (counting Story)

 

$517M after the Story signing and including Devers and Kike. It's more than double the previous 3 seasons, combined.

 

That was a make or break winter.

[notin]

I think getting swept by the Pirates at home was a lot more telling about this club than sweeping the banjo hitting Tigers, so to say the Red Sox looked promising going into Tampa is something I don’t buy.

 

The Pirates are 7-4 and might not be as bad as we think. Certainly they’re off to a good start…

[moonslav59]

The Pirates are 7-4 and might not be as bad as we think. Certainly they’re off to a good start…

 

The O's might not be so bad, either.

[Bellhorn04]

If this is a "tank," then I need to rethink the meaning of the word.

 

The Sox proved last year you can have the worst of both worlds - exceed the tax threshold and finish under .500.

[Old Red]

The Sox proved last year you can have the worst of both worlds - exceed the tax threshold and finish under .500.

 

I don’t think JH gave Bloom a pat on the back for that one.

[Bellhorn04]

I haven't felt this down about a Sox team for a long time. It is good to see that others are keeping their chins up. I just think this team has been very poorly constructed by Bloom. And injuries like Duvall's are nails in the coffin.

[moonslav59]

The Sox proved last year you can have the worst of both worlds - exceed the tax threshold and finish under .500.

 

To me, going over the tax line was unforgivable. I'm not sure who was most responsible, but certainly Bloom has to take some of the blame.

[Old Red]

I haven't felt this down about a Sox team for a long time. It is good to see that others are keeping their chins up. I just think this team has been very poorly constructed by Bloom. And injuries like Duvall's are nails in the coffin.

 

Right now the lack of hitting seems to be the most concerning. Turner looks all his 38 yrs, Yoshida plays to much ping pong with the IF, Casas looks more suspect than prospect, Arroyo while healthy hasn’t hit, and Kike looks like another JBJ, and $10M wasted.

[jad]

Yeah, it's really a shame and bad luck that, even over the salary cap, the RS just don't have a fair shot at signing players like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Vazquez, J.D. Martinez and players like that.

[notin]

True, fans and media both said this was an important offseason and year for Bloom... but Red Sox ownership never said that.

 

Logically, we have to assume Bloom has been following orders. No competent GM would ever join a club, allow most stars to leave, and replace them with mediocrity, castoffs and damaged goods. And then get to keep his job with the promise it's going to be awesome.

 

Allowing the Sox to fade into quiet irrelevance won't affect the plan. Henry can still make a profit on summer tourists if my TV is shut off avoiding his unwatchable ballclub.

 

The only hope for changes towards legitimate improvement is to make noise. He doesn't like that...

 

Maybe not mediocrity, but if the goal is to run this team like the Rays, it will involve more of extending younger players, presumably to very team favorable contracts, and rotating out the aging, expensive players rather quickly, all while making sure they had a steady stream of minor talent capable of doing the job. And while they’re off to a great start extending their postseason streak to 5 years (already longer than any such streak in Sox history), they also missed the postseason each of the 4 years before, in which they were under .500 each year.

 

So would you accept that level of success? 4 years under .500 followed by 4 (and counting) years of making the postseason?

[Hugh2]

I'm not willing to be this is going to be a good team, but I will be willing to be in a few months from now if they're not good.....it won't be because of the offense. You can book that.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

If this is a "tank," then I need to rethink the meaning of the word.

 

If this isn't a tank, then that says an awful lot about the ability of Bloom to rebuild the parent club into a contender. Emphasis on "awful."

[notin]

I'm not willing to be this is going to be a good team, but I will be willing to be in a few months from now if they're not good.....it won't be because of the offense. You can book that.

 

The Phillies started out 22-29 last year, fired their manager, and then squeaked into the postseason and rode their momentum to an NL pennant.

 

If the Sox are close to that record after 50-ish games, I expect Cora gets fired …

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's really a shame and bad luck that, even over the salary cap, the RS just don't have a fair shot at signing players like Betts, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Vazquez, J.D. Martinez and players like that.

 

I would not want to sign Vaz, beni or JD.

 

It sucked losing Betts and Bogey, for sure, but we did sign Devers and offered Betts pretty close to what he signed for, so I'm not sure we have gone as frugal as many seem to think we have.

 

We've spent over $650M since the Story signing, last March.

[moonslav59]

If this isn't a tank, then that says an awful lot about the ability of Bloom to rebuild the parent club into a contender. Emphasis on "awful."

 

I am fully prepared to roast Bloom alive, if his winter moves end up leading us to another poor season.

 

I do cut him a little slack over how absurd the cost would have been to sign guys like Rodon, Bogey and other top players, this past winter, but he was given a massive budget, when you count Story, Kike and Devers.

 

If he can't create a winner by spending $335M+ from Story to now, not counting the devers extension, then he deserves what he gets.

 

I'm not sold that he swung and missed this winter. There is still over 90% of the season left to play.

 

We lost Duvall, but we got back Whitlock and will be seeing Bello, Paxton and others. Later, we may see Mondesi, Story and maybe even Duvall.

 

Time will tell.

 

I'm not a "sky is falling" kind of person.

[mvp 78]

I haven't felt this down about a Sox team for a long time. It is good to see that others are keeping their chins up. I just think this team has been very poorly constructed by Bloom. And injuries like Duvall's are nails in the coffin.

 

I'm lucky enough to be paying double this year for MLB.tv, so I get to complain twice as much.

[mvp 78]

To me, going over the tax line was unforgivable. I'm not sure who was most responsible, but certainly Bloom has to take some of the blame.

 

I think Bloom knew he was above the threshold, but wasn't allowed to get back under. That's just my ASSumption though.

[mvp 78]

The Phillies started out 22-29 last year, fired their manager, and then squeaked into the postseason and rode their momentum to an NL pennant.

 

If the Sox are close to that record after 50-ish games, I expect Cora gets fired …

 

They sneakily gave him a 2 year extension this offseason too.

[mvp 78]

Maybe not mediocrity, but if the goal is to run this team like the Rays, it will involve more of extending younger players, presumably to very team favorable contracts, and rotating out the aging, expensive players rather quickly, all while making sure they had a steady stream of minor talent capable of doing the job. And while they’re off to a great start extending their postseason streak to 5 years (already longer than any such streak in Sox history), they also missed the postseason each of the 4 years before, in which they were under .500 each year.

 

So would you accept that level of success? 4 years under .500 followed by 4 (and counting) years of making the postseason?

 

Which ones?

 

Casas hasn't really hit enough to earn an extension. Bello hasn't performed long enough. Whitlock may not be a starter, but got his extension.

[Old Red]

The Phillies started out 22-29 last year, fired their manager, and then squeaked into the postseason and rode their momentum to an NL pennant.

 

If the Sox are close to that record after 50-ish games, I expect Cora gets fired …

 

Oh no! Not fire Cora. He’s pulled all the right strings. How about batting Noshida 4th, because he wanted him to feel more comfortable. How’s that worked out? How about not Starting Sale on opening day, because he wanted him to enjoy the festivities, and not put on pressure on him. How did that work out? Taking Dugy out of the leadoff spot, and inserting an 083 hitter, which gives him potentially a xtra AB a game to suck even more. How has that worked out. Cora will have the BP all worn out from over use by May 1. Oh no! Don’t fire Cora.

[mvp 78]

Oh no! Not fire Cora. He’s pulled all the right strings. How about batting Noshida 4th, because he wanted him to feel more comfortable. How’s that worked out? How about not Starting Sale on opening day, because he wanted him to enjoy the festivities, and not put on pressure on him. How did that work out? Taking Dugy out of the leadoff spot, and inserting an 083 hitter, which gives him potentially a xtra AB a game to suck even more. How has that worked out. Cora will have the BP all worn out from over use by May 1. Oh no! Don’t fire Cora.

 

Kluber pitched better on Opening Day than Sale did on Day 2.

[Old Red]

Which ones?

 

Casas hasn't really hit enough to earn an extension. Bello hasn't performed long enough. Whitlock may not be a starter, but got his extension.

 

Casas has looked more suspect than prospect so far, and I have always said Whitlock should be in the pen. Time will tell on Bello.

[Old Red]

Kluber pitched better on Opening Day than Sale did on Day 2.

 

We don’t know how Sale would have pitched on opening day, but the point was that Cora’s over thinking things didn’t make sense to me, and it did work out.