A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

Less than 100 PA's in that sample size.

 

Last year in AAA:

 

LHP: 967 OPS

RHP: 798 OPS

 

Good stuff. I'm sure everything will work out just fine.

[Bellhorn04]

More McGuire CERA magic!

[jacksonianmarch]

I just tuned in. Seriously, this sox team might lose 100 games. They're hot garbage

[iortiz]

i just tuned in. Seriously, this sox team might lose 100 games. They're hot garbage

 

lol

[Nick]

The Red Sox could go in two different directions when it comes to Crawford. The first option is keeping him in the majors in a role similar to that of Josh Winckowski, who has pitched well in multi-inning stints so far this season. The more likely option is that Crawford is sent back to Triple-A in the coming days to start while the Red Sox bringing up a more traditional reliever to join their bullpen. Doing so would require a 40-man roster spot which the Red Sox could theoretically clear up by placing Kelly on the 60-day injured list if his injury is severe. Possible call-ups from the WooSox bullpen include righties A.J. Politi and Jake Faria and lefties Ryan Sherriff or Oddanier Mosqueda.

 

Now this maybe the media and not the management.

 

This is where I have an issue with Red Sox.

 

It should be all hands on deck.

 

I don't give flying heck about Kutter being stretched in the minor leagues.

 

If he's one of 13 best pitchers, he needs to be up with the big league ball club.

 

Cora and Bloom act as though we have bevy of talent and we can stash away players in AAA when a guy like Kutter at least has had some success in the majors.

 

I'm a Bloom backer but there are things I scratched my head over.

 

PS. I like Dalbec but he's not a shortstop. Are you telling me that Sox can't find a defensive shortstop? Quit f***ing around. Get a damn shortstop.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox could go in two different directions when it comes to Crawford. The first option is keeping him in the majors in a role similar to that of Josh Winckowski, who has pitched well in multi-inning stints so far this season. The more likely option is that Crawford is sent back to Triple-A in the coming days to start while the Red Sox bringing up a more traditional reliever to join their bullpen. Doing so would require a 40-man roster spot which the Red Sox could theoretically clear up by placing Kelly on the 60-day injured list if his injury is severe. Possible call-ups from the WooSox bullpen include righties A.J. Politi and Jake Faria and lefties Ryan Sherriff or Oddanier Mosqueda.

 

Now this maybe the media and not the management.

 

This is where I have an issue with Red Sox.

 

It should be all hands on deck.

 

I don't give flying heck about Kutter being stretched in the minor leagues.

 

If he's one of 13 best pitchers, he needs to be up with the big league ball club.

 

Cora and Bloom act as though we have bevy of talent and we can stash away players in AAA when a guy like Kutter at least has had some success in the majors.

 

I'm a Bloom backer but there are things I scratched my head over.

 

PS. I like Dalbec but he's not a shortstop. Are you telling me that Sox can't find a defensive shortstop? Quit f***ing around. Get a damn shortstop.

 

If we keep Houck in the rotation, I'd like to have both Wink and Crawford as long men in the pen. Our starters only go 5, and Houck shoulkdn't go past the 18th batter, so keep Crawford and send Kelly and Ort down. Bleier may be the next on the hot seat.

[dgalehouse]

Look at the 2018 championship roster. Then look at the roster today. The difference is significant to say the least. This roster is heavy with ham and eggers or outright jabronis. And the results show it.

[moonslav59]

Look at the 2018 championship roster. Then look at the roster today. The difference is significant to say the least. This roster is heavy with ham and eggers or outright jabronis. And the results show it.

 

Yes, indeed. Most of the key players on that 2018 team were from the farm of 3-7 years prior or traded for from the farm of 2016-2018. The trades and heavy spending stopped while DD was still here, BTW. 2019 was not a year of prospect trades or big signings. Many blamed the downturn on not bringing back or replacing Kimbrel & Kelly, in kind. The downturn began that year, when we made no effort to even stay even.

 

No farm influx from 2017 to Casas and Bello, and even they may fizzle has a lot to do why that 2018 strong roster was not kept strong. For years leading up to 2018, more and more young players were added to the team. That stopped with Devers.

 

Add to that, mandated budget slashing, and DD might have quit under those circumstances. he might have tried to trade Houck, Casas, Bello and others and been told no.

[moonslav59]

Certainly, even the longer term look at the Sox foundation has holes in it. Most teams do not have every slot accounted for 3-5 years out, but I'm not sure we have any less than them, and if Bloom's job was to plan to fill as many holes as possible, has he done enough?

 

I'd say the answer is definitely up for debate, and any support for Bloom would be based mostly on projections and speculations.

 

Here is the "foundation" for 2025:

 

Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Mata, Walter, Winckoski, Crawford, Schreiber, Mills, Murphy, Drohan

McGuire, Wong

Casas, Dalbec

Story, EValdez

Mayer, Hamilton

Devers, Lugo

Yoshida

Rafaela

Duran, Abreu

Kavadas

 

2027

Whitlock, Bello, Mata, Walter, Wikelman, Perales, Houck, Wink, Craw, Murphy, Kelly, Drohan, E R-C, Mills

Wong, Hickey, Brannon

Casas, Kavadas, Jordan

Story, Bonaci

Mayer, Romero

Devers, Lugo

Yoshida

Rafaela

Bleis, Anthony, Duran

Yorke, Paulino

 

There are some promising slots, but lots of questions, too.

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Sale is very unlikely to be here for 2025.

[vegasbob]

Certainly, even the longer term look at the Sox foundation has holes in it. Most teams do not have every slot accounted for 3-5 years out, but I'm not sure we have any less than them, and if Bloom's job was to plan to fill as many holes as possible, has he done enough?

 

I'd say the answer is definitely up for debate, and any support for Bloom would be based mostly on projections and speculations.

 

Here is the "foundation" for 2025:

 

Sale, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Mata, Walter, Winckoski, Crawford, Schreiber, Mills, Murphy, Drohan

McGuire, Wong

Casas, Dalbec

Story, EValdez

Mayer, Hamilton

Devers, Lugo

Yoshida

Rafaela

Duran, Abreu

Kavadas

 

2027

Whitlock, Bello, Mata, Walter, Wikelman, Perales, Houck, Wink, Craw, Murphy, Kelly, Drohan, E R-C, Mills

Wong, Hickey, Brannon

Casas, Kavadas, Jordan

Story, Bonaci

Mayer, Romero

Devers, Lugo

Yoshida

Rafaela

Bleis, Anthony, Duran

Yorke, Paulino

 

There are some promising slots, but lots of questions, too.

 

 

 

 

I see Moon is in the pen warming up for a " Realistic View of 2024, Part 1" in the near future. Let's play LAA and Twins at Fenway over the next week to see if what we have been seeing is what we are going to see for the next 150 games .

 

Peter Abraham likely summed it up well about this roster being a bunch of spare parts and retreads . Bloom needs to do something decisive to keep himself in his seat and the fans in their seats

[Bellhorn04]

I see Moon is in the pen warming up for a " Realistic View of 2024, Part 1" in the near future. Let's play LAA and Twins at Fenway over the next week to see if what we have been seeing is what we are going to see for the next 150 games .

 

Peter Abraham likely summed it up well about this roster being a bunch of spare parts and retreads . Bloom needs to do something decisive to keep himself in his seat and the fans in their seats

 

And frankly about the only decisive thing Bloom can do right now is fall on his sword.

[moonslav59]

Peter Abraham likely summed it up well about this roster being a bunch of spare parts and retreads . Bloom needs to do something decisive to keep himself in his seat and the fans in their seats

 

I agree and said this was Bloom's "legacy winter" and "make or break" moment as the Sox GM. That position has not changed.

 

That doesn't mean I ignore what he did with the farm, just like I never ignored what Ben did and his role in helping build the foundation to the 2016-2018 team and that magical 2018 super season.

 

Maybe in 2026, under a new GM, we will be crediting Bloom for providing the foundational pieces for a championship... or not.

[moonslav59]

And frankly about the only decisive thing Bloom can do right now is fall on his sword.

 

How many blockbuster trades are ever made in April or even May?

 

How willing is JH/Bloom to even consider trading away top prospects for a 2023 boost? That would be something decisive, but I doubt it is even being considered by the top brass.

 

IMO, the plan was and still is the future. They had hopes we could be somewhat competitive, or at least exciting, in the meantime, but it's not looking good on that front, right now.

[Bellhorn04]

I agree and said this was Bloom's "legacy winter" and "make or break" moment as the Sox GM. That position has not changed.

 

That doesn't mean I ignore what he did with the farm, just like I never ignored what Ben did and his role in helping build the foundation to the 2016-2018 team and that magical 2018 super season.

 

Maybe in 2026, under a new GM, we will be crediting Bloom for providing the foundational pieces for a championship... or not.

 

Maybe is a big word in the Bloom era.

[Bellhorn04]

How many blockbuster trades are ever made in April or even May?

 

How willing is JH/Bloom to even consider trading away top prospects for a 2023 boost? That would be something decisive, but I doubt it is even being considered by the top brass.

 

IMO, the plan was and still is the future. They had hopes we could be somewhat competitive, or at least exciting, in the meantime, but it's not looking good on that front, right now.

 

Pushing everything into the future feels like just trying to escape reality. We're competing with teams that look good now and for the future.

[Bellhorn04]

In one small piece of good news, the Twins are hanging a crooked number on Brito in the first inning.

[moonslav59]

Pushing everything into the future feels like just trying to escape reality. We're competing with teams that look good now and for the future.

 

No doubt. The Rays and O's have a lot of very promising young players and prospects- some already showing they will likely be staying around for a long time.

 

The Jays have some great young talent, but I wonder if they can afford to keep them all, as they all seem to be at about the same place in the arb to FA timeline.

 

The Yanks have a healthy mix of young, prime and productive vets.

 

I'm not sure our extended future looks any brighter than theirs, but I challenge anyone to show how it is less promising than it looked in 2019 or 2020. (The future only)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Been a diehard for over half a century. The Red Sox always had star players. Fans don't watch because they like the uniforms or the manager or even the ballpark and the singalong played in the 7th-inning stretch. It's because of the talented, mostly-homegrown fan favorites.

 

The big market Red Sox always made sure to keep their best draws through their primes. Before the Bloom Error, the only time they blew it was in the early days of free agency when front office conflicts led to exits by Fisk and Lynn. After that, they were always in the market for big money recruits.

 

Boston never won it all with those star players until '04. But the Sox were almost always good, and at least competitive and interesting.

 

Now they're none of those things.

[Bellhorn04]

McGuire has bad mojo or something, I think. Maybe that's why he's gotten moved so much. Please note that I'm not resorting to that brand of humor you guys are all thinking of.

[moonslav59]

Look beyond just the value- l0ok at years of control, too:

 

6+ are prospects

 

65 Mayer 6+

41 Casas 6

34 Whitlock 6

33 Bello 6

30 Bleis 6+

25 Rafaela 6+

19 Schreiber 4

19 Houck 5

16 Devers 11

10 Yorke 6+

9 Verdugo 2

9 Romero 6+

7 Anthony 6+

7 McGuire 3

6 Duran 6, Walter 6+

5 Bonaci 6+, Jordan 6+, Paulino 6+

 

NYY

57 Volpe 6+

33 Cortes 3

30 Domingues 6+

28 Peraza 6

20 Pereira 6+

19 King 3

17 Jones 6+

15 Wells 6+

12 Loaisiga 2

12 Torres 2

11 Cabrera 6

11 Schmidt 5

9 Effross 5

9 Mayea 6+

9 Holmes 2

8 Marinaccio 6

8 Arias 6+

7 Bader 1

6 Sweeney 6+, Trevino 3, Thorpe 6+, Warren 6+

 

TBR Blows everyone away:

136 Franco 11

128 McClanahan 5

53 Arozarena 4

47 Rassmussen 4

41 Mead 6+

33 Springs 5

31 Bradley 6+

30 Lowe 4

29 Diaz 4

28 Glasnow 2

26 Williams 6+

25 Baz 5

16 Paredes 5

15 Adam 4

15 Arenda 6

14 Lowe 6

13 Auer 6+

13 Caminero 6+

11 Siri 5

9 Montgomery 6+

8 Beeks 2

(8 more players from 5 to 7 value)

 

TOR has 5 guys at 49+, but it drops off quickly

150 Manoah 5

88 Bichette 3

66 Varsho 4

52 Kirk 4

49 Guerrero 3

38 Tiedemann 6+

35 Gausman 4

25 Jansen 2

19 Romano 3

17 Chapman 1

15 Swanson 3

14 Espinal 4

14 Barger 6+

11 Springer 4

11 Zulueta 6+

8 Garcia 2, Barriera 6+2, Martinez 6+, Toman 6+

(7 players between 5 and 7)

 

BAL has 5 over 45:

134 Rutschman 5

86 Henderson 6

55 Holliday 6+

53 Rodriguez 6+

45 Mullins 3

25 Cowser 6+

24 Bautista 5

23 Mayo 6+

22 Hall 6

22 Hays 3

21 Mountcastle 4

19 Ortiz 6+

17 Westbug 6+

15 Urias 4

15 Baker 5

15 Norby 6+

14 B radish 6

12 Kremer 5

10 Irvin 4

9 Beavers 6+, Santander 2

8 Stowers 6

(9 guys between 5 and 7)

 

 

Another factor is the deadwood:

 

Red Sox: 5 in the negative with only Story for more than 2 years remaining. 2 at 10M or worse and 1 at 20M or worse (Story -37)

 

NYY: 9 players in negative, including 6 at more than -10 and 4 over 20 (Stanton at -107)

 

Jays have 9 underwater but 5 are just at -1 or less. 3 at -10 or worse and just 1 at 20 or worse (Berrios -58)

 

O's have 2 at very little underwater and just 1-2 yrs.

 

TBR: No players underwater.

[moonslav59]

Been a diehard for over half a century. The Red Sox always had star players. Fans don't watch because they like the uniforms or the manager or even the ballpark and the singalong played in the 7th-inning stretch. It's because of the talented, mostly-homegrown fan favorites.

 

The big market Red Sox always made sure to keep their best draws through their primes. Before the Bloom Error, the only time they blew it was in the early days of free agency when front office conflicts led to exits by Fisk and Lynn. After that, they were always in the market for big money recruits.

 

Boston never won it all with those star players until '04. But the Sox were almost always good, and at least competitive and interesting.

 

Now they're none of those things.

 

Devers is not a fan fave?

 

I know: just one sucks.

[notin]

McGuire has bad mojo or something, I think. Maybe that's why he's gotten moved so much. Please note that I'm not resorting to that brand of humor you guys are all thinking of.

 

He was a former 1st round pick and top prospect that didn’t pan out as expected. Toronto acquired him because they were hoping he would, but dealt him because he didn’t really pan out there and he had no options left. Chicago used him as the BUC, but needed a lefty in the bullpen and pulled the trigger because - hey getting bullpen stretch run help for the backup catcher is a no-brainer.

 

Not all trades are made to get rid of players. Given his salary, there would have been no cost for a simpler DFA…

Edited April 14, 2023 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Devers is not a fan fave?

 

I know: just one sucks.

 

I never mentioned Devers in my post, but glad to expand.

 

No matter how it's-still-early, the '23 Red Sox have just one above-average player on the diamond. That explains more than anything why they suck.

 

Besides Raffy, not one position player has played an entire major league season at their starting positions. Verdugo is the closest, as mainly the rightfielder for two months of 2020.

 

The offense will improve, because Boston won't keep starting five guys batting below .200. The pitching will improve, because young arms will soon replace dead old arms that are serving up BP.

 

But the real problem that needs to be rectified is the DEFENSE. The Sox will not compete or even be respectable until they fill C-SS-2B-CF with solid, full-time big leaguers who actually play those positions. It may take time to find different players, and it may take different GM/CBO/Manager/Coaches to find them...

 

And don't fall for waiting for the wounded to heal; recruiting injury-prone players is part of the problem. New management will start with targeting and paying for dependable athletes in their primes.

[moonslav59]

I never mentioned Devers in my post, but glad to expand.

 

No matter how it's-still-early, the '23 Red Sox have just one above-average player on the diamond. That explains more than anything why they suck.

 

Besides Raffy, not one position player has played an entire major league season at their starting positions. Verdugo is the closest, as mainly the rightfielder for two months of 2020.

 

The offense will improve, because Boston won't keep starting five guys batting below .200. The pitching will improve, because young arms will soon replace dead old arms that are serving up BP.

 

But the real problem that needs to be rectified is the DEFENSE. The Sox will not compete or even be respectable until they fill C-SS-2B-CF with solid, full-time big leaguers who actually play those positions. It may take time to find different players, and it may take different GM/CBO/Manager/Coaches to find them...

 

And don't fall for waiting for the wounded to heal; recruiting injury-prone players is part of the problem. New management will start with targeting and paying for dependable athletes in their primes.

 

Well said. I was just responding to the statement that we have "none of those things."

 

Yes, one is pretty close to "none," but I'm hopeful someone like Whitlock, Bello, Casas or even Mayer or Rafaela soon rise into long-lasting fan faves.

[mvp 78]

Maybe in 2026, under a new GM, we will be crediting Bloom for providing the foundational pieces for a championship... or not.

 

You can provide a foundation for future seasons, without putting garbage on the field in the meantime.

[mvp 78]

He was a former 1st round pick and top prospect that didn’t pan out as expected. Toronto acquired him because they were hoping he would, but dealt him because he didn’t really pan out there and he had no options left. Chicago used him as the BUC, but needed a lefty in the bullpen and pulled the trigger because - hey getting bullpen stretch run help for the backup catcher is a no-brainer.

 

Not all trades are made to get rid of players. Given his salary, there would have been no cost for a simpler DFA…

 

The Nats traded Juan Soto because of how terrible he was.

[notin]

The Nats traded Juan Soto because of how terrible he was.

 

He was killing that team…

[notin]

Well said. I was just responding to the statement that we have "none of those things."

 

Yes, one is pretty close to "none," but I'm hopeful someone like Whitlock, Bello, Casas or even Mayer or Rafaela soon rise into long-lasting fan faves.

 

 

Probably won’t see Ceddanne until the Portland OPS vaults up over the .600 mark…

[mvp 78]

He was killing that team…

 

Why else would you trade a player unless he SUCKED?