A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

I know, but you have to admit, these numbers are bizarre. Especially the consistency between the two years.

 

Maybe moon could do a little dig and see if any Sox catcher has ever had this high of a CERA over this big of a sample.

 

Even this year, what’s he had so far? A veteran Sale who has thrown 48 IP in the past 3 years. Kluber, another aging vet coming off arm issues. Houck, who has two pitches. Whitlock? One start after an injury.

 

Not to mention the Orioles and Rays— who make up 50% of the Sox opponents - are apparently two VERY GOOD HITTING teams.

 

I mean, if McGuire was catching for Glavine-Maddux-Smoltz, think he’d turn them mediocre? (Bear in mind old friend Javy Lopez couldn’t.)

[mvp 78]

I know, but you have to admit, these numbers are bizarre. Especially the consistency between the two years.

 

Maybe moon could do a little dig and see if any Sox catcher has ever had this high of a CERA over this big of a sample.

 

The Sox have been bad over that stretch. What was McGuire's CERA prior to coming here?

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have been bad over that stretch. What was McGuire's CERA prior to coming here?

 

Wong's CERA is much better than McGuire's over the same time frame.

 

Wong just started 4 games in a row, so I think Cora or someone is actually starting to notice...

[mvp 78]

No, a loser would be someone that goes back and forth with another poster for months and months having dumb pointless arguments. I wouldn't stoop to loser behavior like that. I just like to waste time while I'm at work.

 

If they bench Kiké, who are they going to play at SS instead? They don't have anyone! Mondesi is out until June and is liable to be put back on the IL soon after. Valdez is currently hitting worse in AAA than Kiké. Yu Chang's current OPS is 000. David Hamilton was not a good hitter in AA last season. There's no way he'd be adequate in MLB in 2023. They don't have anyone who can play SS aside from Kiké right now.

 

Who are you playing there instead?

 

Chang is still at 000.

 

I'm not sure if Hamilton can hit in MLB, BUT his EV early on has been much higher than it has in previous season. If he's making more productive contact at the plate, he could find more sustained success. He would probably k too much and never walk, but it's not like he has a high ceiling that you are worried about hindering. Just run him into the ground while you need him.

[moonslav59]

And the Red Sox planned to make the playoffs this year going into the season with one starter in his prime: the #5 starter.

 

True, but also 8 younger pitchers or prospects with varying levels of hope- some very high:

 

Whitlock

Houck

Bello

Winckowski

Crawford

Mata

Walter

Murphy

 

I think the hope was the 2-3 vets would do well out of Sale, Kluber, Paxton and Pivetta, and we'd just need 2-3 young guys to shine.

 

I don't think the plan was as awful as many think it was, but it sure has not looked good, so far- granted.

[mvp 78]

Wong's CERA is much better than McGuire's over the same time frame.

 

Wong just started 4 games in a row, so I think Cora or someone is actually starting to notice...

 

They are catching different pitchers though. It's just not a fair comparison, which is why CERA isn't widely recognized.

 

Wong started because I think they are doing a platoon split based on R/L matchups.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Chang is still at 000.

 

I'm not sure if Hamilton can hit in MLB, BUT his EV early on has been much higher than it has in previous season. If he's making more productive contact at the plate, he could find more sustained success. He would probably k too much and never walk, but it's not like he has a high ceiling that you are worried about hindering. Just run him into the ground while you need him.

 

Hamilton would've beaten out that bunt attempt that Chang tried last night down two runs... especially if he bunted it straight to Sale on the mound.

[mvp 78]

@ByAndrewParker

WooSox manager Chad Tracy told me postgame yesterday that when David Hamilton gets on base, he has unlimited freedom to steal and advance bases.

 

He noted Hamilton went first to third successfully on an infield single last night. The speed is real.

 

@SoxProspects

David Hamilton homered (3) for the second night in a row in Worcester's 10-5 loss tonight. The 25-year-old infielder is off to a hot start slashing .419/.438/.839 with five stolen bases over 32 PA.

 

I guess it's more important to dick around with Bobby Dalbec at SS for some reason?

[moonslav59]

Wong's CERA is much better than McGuire's over the same time frame.

 

Wong just started 4 games in a row, so I think Cora or someone is actually starting to notice...

 

The word was that McGuire was supposed to be good on D and these areas. He has seen a lot of different pitchers over the last 1 season+, but how long do you give to adjust?

 

I will point out some disparities in who each catcher is catching:

 

PAs with C and OPSA

 

Red= noticeably better with this catcher

Blue= other catcher has no PAs with this pitcher

 

Wong

42 Crawford .957

39 Houck .711

25 Ort .845

21 Whit 1.238

20 Pivetta .472

19 Kluber .544

18 Martin .918

15 Winck .333

15 Kelly .381

14 Schreiber .690

13 Bleier .692

11 Brasier .586

6 Jansen 1.100

 

McGuire

64 Sale 1.061

23 Brasier .611

22 Pivetta .799

19 Wink .377

19 Kluber 1.460

19 Kelly 1.194

11 Martin .482

11 Schreiber .614

9 Ort 1.125

8 Jansen .393

4 Bleier .833

 

The age old question: what came first? The chicken or the egg?

 

Does Sale suck because of McGuire, or do McGuire's numbers suck, because nearly a third of his PAs catching have been with Sale? (Wong has no PAs with Sale.)

 

I'm not trying to make excuses. I'm very worried about our rotation and how our catchers are not having much success with them.

 

I'm wondering if Wong's better numbers with pitchers he caught in the minors helps him.

 

[mvp 78]

@itsbrianbarrett

Chris Sale

 

48.6% hard hit rate (balls off the bat 95+ mph ) 58th of 67 qualified starters

 

10.8% barrel % - 58th

 

5 bombs - t-3rd most

 

11.25 ERA - last!!!!!!

 

2.08 WHIP - 64th

 

.321 OBA - 61st

 

10.9% walk rate - 55th

 

*command has been atrocious!!!

 

I can't believe McGuire would do this to Sale!!!

[mvp 78]

With Kluber and Pivetta, we're talking about the difference between one start. Like what are we doing here?

 

Kluber had a bad start on Opening Day because it was cold as s***. Pivetta had a mediocre start because he's a mediocre pitcher.

 

Saying Ort is "noticeably better" when his OPS is still 845 is just embarrassing. A bad pitcher is a bad pitcher.

 

CERA over such a small sample is just dumb.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox have been bad over that stretch. What was McGuire's CERA prior to coming here?

 

Look man, you said McGuire would be the #1 catcher and catch 60% of the games.

 

Instead, Wong started games 8,9,10 and 11 of the season.

 

So your credibility on this matter is already shot.

[Hugh2]

Why am I starting to think you two are playing the same CERA game here??? lol

[mvp 78]

Look man, you said McGuire would be the #1 catcher and catch 60% of the games.

 

Instead, Wong started games 8,9,10 and 11 of the season.

 

So your credibility on this matter is already shot.

 

Oh no, not that! Anything but that!

 

Must commit seppuku after I finish the monthly financials today.

 

Using CERA for an argument over a 4 series stretch? Looking at catcher usage over a 4 series stretch as a barometer for what will happen for the whole season? C'mon man! Bloom is just as likely to throw Dalbec there at some point to increase his trade value.

[Bellhorn04]

Oh no, not that! Anything but that!

 

Must commit seppuku after I finish the monthly financials today.

 

Using CERA for an argument over a 4 series stretch? Looking at catcher usage over a 4 series stretch as a barometer for what will happen for the whole season? C'mon man! Bloom is just as likely to throw Dalbec there at some point to increase his trade value.

 

You think it's just a random thing that Wong started 4 in a row this early in the year, when McGuire is a much better hitter?

 

Now that's funny.

[mvp 78]

You think it's just a random thing that Wong started 4 in a row this early in the year, when McGuire is a much better hitter?

 

Now that's funny.

 

Game 1: Wentz LHP

Game 2: Boyd LHP

Game 3: Fleming LHP

Game 4: McClanahan LHP

 

Random? No. What do all these pitchers have in common???

 

What did I say above about how they are splitting the time with these catchers? Did you hit your head this morning? Should I call a doctor for you? Do you need medical attention?

[oldtimer]

Not an auspicious start for our highest paid player. (nearly 1/2 of the Rays total budget) We have him for 2 seasons so have to hope he will return to at least mid level starter capability. McGuire is not at fault here.

[cp176]

This is tough to understand - using Dalbec at short.

[Bellhorn04]

Game 1: Wentz LHP

Game 2: Boyd LHP

Game 3: Fleming LHP

Game 4: McClanahan LHP

 

Random? No. What do all these pitchers have in common???

 

What did I say above about how they are splitting the time with these catchers? Did you hit your head this morning? Should I call a doctor for you? Do you need medical attention?

 

Wong's career batting splits:

 

Vs. RHP .704

Vs. LHP .374

 

So maybe you're right, but everything else is wrong.

[Hugh2]

I would just like the record to state that I advocated for a SS all offseason. First the extension of Bogaets, then one of the other big 4, and then I would have settled for Andrus.

 

The crazy thing is, the team has the budget to have signed Elvis and still be under the cap. Not a good look right now.

[Hugh2]

To be transparent Andrus is off to a s*** start. But he can field the position better than Kike, Dalbec, would keep Kike in CF and even if you expect regression this season he's likely to hit much better than his horrid start.

[moonslav59]

I would just like the record to state that I advocated for a SS all offseason. First the extension of Bogaets, then one of the other big 4, and then I would have settled for Andrus.

 

The crazy thing is, the team has the budget to have signed Elvis and still be under the cap. Not a good look right now.

 

Me, too- even before we knew Story was injured and after we got Mondesi.

[sk7326]

I don't know, sk, I think it's kind of a bad sign when we feel good about the team "making a game of it" like last night.

 

Tampa is very good. Looking at the opponents and whatnot, I think 5-7 is not something I love ... but I also kinda think the starters will get better (or they really can't be much worse). Now, Sale might just be this guy - which is kind of scary to think about - but I'm not there quite yet.

[moonslav59]

Tampa is very good. Looking at the opponents and whatnot, I think 5-7 is not something I love ... but I also kinda think the starters will get better (or they really can't be much worse). Now, Sale might just be this guy - which is kind of scary to think about - but I'm not there quite yet.

 

Sale will certainly get a few more starts to show if he's toast or not.

 

I'm looking forward to Bello joining the big club and Whitlock improving.

[mvp 78]

Me, too- even before we knew Story was injured and after we got Mondesi.

 

I think EVERYONE wanted a SS. Kiké wasn't the ideal option. As a fallback plan during the season, it's ok, but not going into it.

[Hugh2]

Me, too- even before we knew Story was injured and after we got Mondesi.

 

Exactly, because if you have a healthy Story at 2nd, and Andrus at SS, you just put Kike in CF.

[jad]

Exactly, because if you have a healthy Story at 2nd, and Andrus at SS, you just put Kike in CF.

 

A 'healthy Story'!!! OMG that's funny! STop, you're killing me!!!

[moonslav59]

I think EVERYONE wanted a SS. Kiké wasn't the ideal option. As a fallback plan during the season, it's ok, but not going into it.

 

I think the hope was Mondesi would be ready, sooner.

[mvp 78]

Wong's career batting splits:

 

Vs. RHP .704

Vs. LHP .374

 

So maybe you're right, but everything else is wrong.

 

Less than 100 PA's in that sample size.

 

Last year in AAA:

 

LHP: 967 OPS

RHP: 798 OPS

[Bellhorn04]

To be transparent Andrus is off to a s*** start. But he can field the position better than Kike, Dalbec, would keep Kike in CF and even if you expect regression this season he's likely to hit much better than his horrid start.

 

And he signed for 3 freakin' million, after we were speculating we didn't sign him because he was asking for too much LOL

 

Total clown show stuff going on.