A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[notin]

Updated:

 

Pitching to Vazquez 99 IP 1.64 ERA

Pitching to Plawecki 47 IP 5.94 ERA

Pitching to McGuire & others in spring games 20.1 IP 9.74 ERA

 

B-R didn’t have his McGuire numbers, but his numbers with Vazquez and Plawecki are more similar than ERA suggests.

 

His K/BB, for example, was 3.06 with KP and 3.20 with CV.

 

His BAA, OBPA and SLGA were all worse with KP, but in each case by roughly the same amount as his BABIPA. Not sure how much a catcher can influence BABIP…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

won't you smile awhile for me, CERA...

 

Or is that a hard C, as in... don't Cara

Edited March 27, 2023 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[moonslav59]

Updated:

 

Pitching to Vazquez 99 IP 1.64 ERA

Pitching to Plawecki 47 IP 5.94 ERA

Pitching to McGuire & others in spring games 20.1 IP 9.74 ERA

 

What were the CERA's last ST'ing?

[moonslav59]

Sandy Leon & Franchy Cordero released.

 

Why can't we get quality guys like these two?

________________________________

 

Matt Strahm to start game 5 for Phillies.

________________________________

 

Two Rule 5 players returned to clubs (not the Sox.)

 

[Tedballgame]

Just read an article on WEEI that said Kaleb Ort is being considered for opening day roster. Unbelieveable! That guy sucks. How is he still on the 40 man roster?

[moonslav59]

Just read an article on WEEI that said Kaleb Ort is being considered for opening day roster. Unbelieveable! That guy sucks. How is he still on the 40 man roster?

 

A question that has yet to be asked by any poster.

 

[Tedballgame]

A question that has yet to be asked by any poster.

 

 

Don't be an A-Hole Moon.

[moonslav59]

Don't be an A-Hole Moon.

 

Trying to be light-hearted.

 

We all agree with you.

[sk7326]

Bogaerts and JD Martinez combined for 31 home runs in their last year in Boston. They were replaced in free agency (via big contract or position) by Yoshida and Turner.

 

Over-Under for Masa and JT: 31 HRs? It would be great if both pop 20 apiece... but adjusting to a new country and/or league, with dead balls, and 31 could be close.

 

Story (currently shelved) and Dalbec (on the bubble) combined for 28 homers in '22. They were replaced (with Kike moving to short) by Duvall and Casas.

 

Over-Under for Adam and Triston: 28 longballs? Obviously, each has the power to exceed 28 himself... but if they don't hit 15 each, the Sox could be in trouble.

 

28 seems reasonable. The homeruns won't be the same - and weren't a year ago. I think the hope is the team can succeed offensively working counts and not striking out.

[Bellhorn04]

What were the CERA's last ST'ing?

 

Forget the splits. I'm just a little freaked out by Houck's stats in these spring games (1.92 WHIP, 9 HR in 20.1 IP). When the numbers are this incredibly bad you have to wonder if the guy is healthy or not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

28 seems reasonable. The homeruns won't be the same - and weren't a year ago. I think the hope is the team can succeed offensively working counts and not striking out.

 

Making contact and moving runners will be essential if this batting order is to succeed.

 

The key is obviously Devers, but the season may hinge on whether he matures into a more disciplined batter. If he feels a megacontract responsibility to be Big Puppy and tries to crush every pitch in the ballpark, he'll be an easy out for opposing teams (who won't be worried early about new guys like Yoshida and Casas, transitioning as full-time MLBers).

 

Rafael Devers is so gifted, he can hit just about any pitch. The problem is that if he swings from the heels every AB, he can't hit every pitch well. Does anyone doubt in the second half of last year that if he just tried to go with the pitch and hit liners on one leg that he could've batted at least .317 and won the batting crown?

[Bellhorn04]

The key is obviously Devers, but the season may hinge on whether he matures into a more disciplined batter. If he feels a megacontract responsibility to be Big Puppy and tries to crush every pitch in the ballpark, he'll be an easy out for opposing teams (who won't be worried early about new guys like Yoshida and Casas, transitioning as full-time MLBers).

 

Rafael Devers is so gifted, he can hit just about any pitch. The problem is that if he swings from the heels every AB, he can't hit every pitch well. Does anyone doubt in the second half of last year that if he just tried to go with the pitch and hit liners on one leg that he could've batted at least .317 and won the batting crown?

 

Devers's hamstring injury messed up his whole second half. That can happen.

 

I think his approach works for him and shouldn't be fiddled with much.

[mvp 78]

Forget the splits. I'm just a little freaked out by Houck's stats in these spring games (1.92 WHIP, 9 HR in 20.1 IP). When the numbers are this incredibly bad you have to wonder if the guy is healthy or not.

 

His slider has lots of movement. Just need to see if the numbers settle down during the regular season when it counts.

[moonslav59]

Forget the splits. I'm just a little freaked out by Houck's stats in these spring games (1.92 WHIP, 9 HR in 20.1 IP). When the numbers are this incredibly bad you have to wonder if the guy is healthy or not.

 

This is basically his rehab.

 

Someone else pointed out that maybe he is working on a third pitch, and not doing too well with it.

 

I wish we'd just keep him in the pen 100%. Start Wink, instead. It should only be one or two starts.

[moonslav59]

Devers's hamstring injury messed up his whole second half. That can happen.

 

I think his approach works for him and shouldn't be fiddled with much.

 

I agree. Don't mess with a successful approach, and to me, it is helpful to have a line-up with varying approaches.

 

Nobody messed with Vladdy.

[mvp 78]

The only realistic view here:

 

@redsoxstats

Today the rosters got mass height edits

5'8->5'9 Ceddanne Rafaela

5'9->5'8 Enmanuel Valdez

6'0->5'10 Wilyer Abreu

6'0->5'11 Nathan Hickey

6'3->6'2 Marcelo Mayer

6'0->5'11 Nick Yorke

5'10->5'8 Tyler McDonough

5'10->5'9 Chase Meidroth

6'1->5'11 Mikey Romero

6'3->6'2 Roman Anthony

[Bellhorn04]

I agree. Don't mess with a successful approach, and to me, it is helpful to have a line-up with varying approaches.

 

Nobody messed with Vladdy.

 

Yes, good example.

 

I also always got a chuckle out of people criticizing JDM for swinging at all those low outside breaking pitches, while he had an OPS of .900.

[moonslav59]

Yes, good example.

 

I also always got a chuckle out of people criticizing JDM for swinging at all those low outside breaking pitches, while he had an OPS of .900.

 

There were times Papi was criticized for the same thing.

 

Adrian Beltre hit some HRs on one knee.

[moonslav59]

The only realistic view here:

 

@redsoxstats

Today the rosters got mass height edits

5'8->5'9 Ceddanne Rafaela

5'9->5'8 Enmanuel Valdez

6'0->5'10 Wilyer Abreu

6'0->5'11 Nathan Hickey

6'3->6'2 Marcelo Mayer

6'0->5'11 Nick Yorke

5'10->5'8 Tyler McDonough

5'10->5'9 Chase Meidroth

6'1->5'11 Mikey Romero

6'3->6'2 Roman Anthony

 

Good to see a move towards "truth."

[Old Red]

This is basically his rehab.

 

Someone else pointed out that maybe he is working on a third pitch, and not doing too well with it.

 

I wish we'd just keep him in the pen 100%. Start Wink, instead. It should only be one or two starts.

 

I’ll agree with that, and I’m far from being a big Wink fan.

[moonslav59]

I’ll agree with that, and I’m far from being a big Wink fan.

 

I know we should not get to gah-gah over ST'ing numbers, like maybe with Tapia, but Wink has been solid, all spring.

 

16 IP (4th on team)

1.13 ERA (#1 among pitchers with 9+ IP)

10 hits

4 BB

17 K (4.25 K:BB, only Crawford is slightly better)

0.88 WHIP

.175 BA Against

 

[Old Red]

I know we should not get to gah-gah over ST'ing numbers, like maybe with Tapia, but Wink has been solid, all spring.

 

16 IP (4th on team)

1.13 ERA (#1 among pitchers with 9+ IP)

10 hits

4 BB

17 K (4.25 K:BB, only Crawford is slightly better)

0.88 WHIP

.175 BA Against

 

I just don’t like the constant jerking around. If the plan was to make Houck a FT starter I could see, but I don’t think the plan once, and if all the starters are healthy is for Houck to stay there. Of course I’ve always been a proponent of keeping Whit in the pen too.

[moonslav59]

I just don’t like the constant jerking around. If the plan was to make Houck a FT starter I could see, but I don’t think the plan once, and if all the starters are healthy is for Houck to stay there. Of course I’ve always been a proponent of keeping Whit in the pen too.

 

Whit has a better profile to be a good starter, but I, too hate messing with something that has worked.

 

Having a one-two long relief punch from Whit & Houck would do wonders for the short RP'ers on the staff, as well as allowing Cora to yank SP'ers early, if needed.

 

Had we kept them both firmly in their pen roles, all year, we'd still have a lot of choices as SP'ers:

 

Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton

Bello, Crawford, Wink

Mata, Walter, Murphy

 

[mvp 78]

Yes, good example.

 

I also always got a chuckle out of people criticizing JDM for swinging at all those low outside breaking pitches, while he had an OPS of .900.

 

What would his OPS look like if he didn't swing at those pitches though?!?!?

[moonslav59]

What would his OPS look like if he didn't swing at those pitches though?!?!?

 

It's hard to say. Changing his approach might mean less hits on other pitches.

 

He's "fooled" by some pitches, but if he layed off them, he might also lay off some pitches he used to hit- ones that did not break off so sharply out of the K zone.

 

Let good hitters be, is my motto.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Sounds as if the Red Sox won’t be deciding on the final roster spots (LHH reserve OF and reliever) until sometime after today’s game.

 

As of now, Kaleb Ort and Jarren Duran are expected to fly with the team to Boston, but uncertain if they will open the year in the big leagues or with the WooSox (who open at home on Friday).

[mvp 78]

It's hard to say. Changing his approach might mean less hits on other pitches.

 

He's "fooled" by some pitches, but if he layed off them, he might also lay off some pitches he used to hit- ones that did not break off so sharply out of the K zone.

 

Let good hitters be, is my motto.

 

No, I said "what... if he didn't swing at those pitches" not "what... if he didn't swing at those pitches and some others too?!??!"

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

Of my nine seasons with the Red Sox, this is the best group from top to bottom that I’ve been around. Call it vibes, chemistry, leadership, professionalism, whatever—it’s just a great group of people and players. Can’t wait for the fans to get to know this team better.

[moonslav59]

No, I said "what... if he didn't swing at those pitches" not "what... if he didn't swing at those pitches and some others too?!??!"

 

I know what you said, but not swinging at "those pitches" would require a change in approach. It's fair to argue there might be other consequences to such a change.

 

Every hitter would be better, if he never swung at pitches they swung and missed on or hit into outs.

 

It is okay to discuss things beyond what you stated or meant.

[moonslav59]

@SoxNotes

Of my nine seasons with the Red Sox, this is the best group from top to bottom that I’ve been around. Call it vibes, chemistry, leadership, professionalism, whatever—it’s just a great group of people and players. Can’t wait for the fans to get to know this team better.

 

Who is Sox Notes?