A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

There is an interesting flaw in the post season format that quite possibly makes it better to be the third wild card than to be the first or second. The first two play each other while the third plays the probably weaker Central Division winner.

 

Really? That's total malfeasance by MLB. Those 4 teams should play 1-4 and 2-3 based on records, regardless of which one won their division.

[Old Red]

Really? That's total malfeasance by MLB. Those 4 teams should play 1-4 and 2-3 based on records, regardless of which one won their division.

 

Doesn’t the top wildcard record get home field, and play all the games there?

[moonslav59]

Doesn’t the top wildcard record get home field, and play all the games there?

 

Yes, the first round is 3 games at the higher seed teams' field.

[moonslav59]

Doesn’t the top wildcard record get home field, and play all the games there?

 

The worst division winner, also.

[Duran Is The Man]

Are we no better since Kike got the boot?

 

LOL....you'd think we'd move up 10 spots just with him leaving.

[Duran Is The Man]

Are they FIGHTING for a playoff spot or "fighting" for a playoff spot.

 

more like fighting for a playoff spot.

[Hugh2]

Like I said the eye test have set bells, and whistles off 100 times over. Yes all opinions matter, but the crying comes with the bells, and whistles.

 

Yeah they eyes can tell you a big part of the story.

 

If you’re a pro scout. Or you have played a lot baseball in your life up to like at least the collegiate level and you watch a lot games in person. Yes, a good set of eyes is informative and can say transformative, in that a good scout can add value to your organization.

 

The eye test that is absurd, and useless, are the tests done sitting in a couch at home watching g the TV. You don’t see the game the same way, with the same speed there. Your perception of the game is a FRACTION of the field. No one is scouting anything there.

 

By that standard the statisticians have the best set of eyes…:because they can LOOK at all those numbers.

[Old Red]

Yeah they eyes can tell you a big part of the story.

 

If you’re a pro scout. Or you have played a lot baseball in your life up to like at least the collegiate level and you watch a lot games in person. Yes, a good set of eyes is informative and can say transformative, in that a good scout can add value to your organization.

 

The eye test that is absurd, and useless, are the tests done sitting in a couch at home watching g the TV. You don’t see the game the same way, with the same speed there. Your perception of the game is a FRACTION of the field. No one is scouting anything there.

 

By that standard the statisticians have the best set of eyes…:because they can LOOK at all those numbers.

I’m not disputing anything you said about the eye test sitting, and watching on a TV. I’ve played enough ball, and been to enough games to know the difference. All I’ve ever said is that the eye test is good enough for me, and that is what seems to be a problem for some. The key is good enough for me.

[moonslav59]

We went 2-4 on the road trip, but after today's TOR loss to BAL, we are one down in the loss column to them and that last WC slot.

 

We have the 6th best record in the AL.

We are 5.5 GB the 3rd best record.

We are 4.5 GA of the 11th best record (or 5th worst.)

[Hugh2]

I’m not disputing anything you said about the eye test sitting, and watching on a TV. I’ve played enough ball, and been to enough games to know the difference. All I’ve ever said is that the eye test is good enough for me, and that is what seems to be a problem for some. The key is good enough for me.

 

I see your choice of words there. That is fair.

 

I’m apologize for implying you had a stick up your ass.

[Duran Is The Man]

We went 2-4 on the road trip, but after today's TOR loss to BAL, we are one down in the loss column to them and that last WC slot.

 

We have the 6th best record in the AL.

We are 5.5 GB the 3rd best record.

We are 4.5 GA of the 11th best record (or 5th worst.)

 

yet Bloom did nothing at the TDL.

[Randy Red Sox]

so we are pretty much in the mushy middle

We went 2-4 on the road trip, but after today's TOR loss to BAL, we are one down in the loss column to them and that last WC slot.

 

We have the 6th best record in the AL.

We are 5.5 GB the 3rd best record.

We are 4.5 GA of the 11th best record (or 5th worst.)

[moonslav59]

Remaining Games:

 

BOS

7 (3H/4A) BAL

5 (2H/3A) TBR

6 (3H/3A) TOR

7 (4H/3A) NYY

7 (4A/3H) HOU

3A TEX

3H LAD

3H DET

7 (4H/3A) KCR

3H CWS

3A WSH

 

TOR

3A BAL

6 (3H/3A) TBR

6 (3H/3A) TOR

6 (3H/3A) NYY

7 (3H/4A) CLE

4H TEX

3A CIN

3H CHC

2H PHI

3A COL

3A OAK

3H KCR

3H WSH

 

HOU

6 (3H/3A) BAL

7 (4H/3A) BOS

7 (3H/4A) NYY

3A TEX

3A MIA

3A ARI

3H LAA

6 (3H/3A) SEA

3H SDP

3A DET

6 (3H/3A) KCR

3H OAK

 

[notin]

yet Bloom did nothing at the TDL.

 

Luis Urias!!!

[Duran Is The Man]

Luis Urias!!!

 

his blistering .145 BA makes Chang look like Ty Cobb.

[mvp 78]

his blistering .145 BA makes Chang look like Ty Cobb.

 

Now compare OBP for each!

[moonslav59]

his blistering .145 BA makes Chang look like Ty Cobb.

 

Good thing baseball players don't repeat their last 68 PAs over and over.

 

It's easy to pick out his weakest area (BA.) His .235 career BA is not good, for sure, but his D is very good, and he gets on base okay (.331 OBP.) He also has decent power- kinda like Chang. Urias has averaged 20 HRs and 27 2B+3B per 650 PAs. (47 XBHs)

 

He's not great, but those numbers are an improvement over:

.720 Urias

.693 Arroyo

.684 EValdez

.670 Reyes

.624 Chang

 

I'll take a decent improvement on O and D.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

Now compare OBP for each!

 

they both suck. i know.

[Duran Is The Man]

Good thing baseball players don't repeat their last 68 PAs over and over.

 

It's easy to pick out his weakest area (BA.) His .235 career BA is not good, for sure, but his D is very good, and he gets on base okay (.331 OBP.) He also has decent power- kinda like Chang. Urias has averaged 20 HRs and 27 2B+3B per 650 PAs. (47 XBHs)

 

He's not great, but those numbers are an improvement over:

.720 Urias

.693 Arroyo

.684 EValdez

.670 Reyes

.624 Chang

 

I'll take a decent improvement on O and D.

 

 

yeah, yeah...an improvement over the crap we have, but that's a low freakin' bar.

 

you gonna pay him $5 million next year?

[moonslav59]

yeah, yeah...an improvement over the crap we have, but that's a low freakin' bar.

 

you gonna pay him $5 million next year?

 

Do .145 hitters get arb raises?

 

I think I might want Urias at $4.8M than Arroyo at $2.8M or more.

 

Who know? Maybe we cut him, and you can gloat all spring long.

[moonslav59]

NYY win

Hou loses

 

Updated standings:

 

66-45 TBR (-2 ALE)

62-48 HOU (-1.5 ALW)

60-50 TOR

 

57-51 BOS -2.0 WC3 (-4.0 WC2 & -7.5 TBR WC1)

57-52 NYY -2.5 WC3

56-52 SEA -3.0

56-53 LAA -3.5

 

Weekend Series:

TOR @ BOS

HOU @NYY

TBR @ DET

NYM @ BAL

SEA @LAA

 

Edited August 4, 2023 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

they both suck. i know.

 

Yu Chang also never had seasons like Urias had in 2021 and 2022. He was injured at the beginning of 2023. If he can turn it around, he's better than any of the other 2B options they have now. They traded a potential Rule 5 guy for him. It was a fine trade. If it doesn't work out, it's no big loss. If it works out, you have a real everyday starting 2B until the younger guys are ready to emerge.

[mvp 78]

NYY win

Hou loses

 

Updated standings:

 

66-45 TBR (-2 ALE)

62-48 HOU (-1.5 ALW)

60-50 TOR

 

57-51 BOS -2.0 WC3 (-4.0 WC2 & -7.5 TBR WC1)

57-52 NYY -2.5 WC3

56-52 SEA -3.0

56-53 LAA -3.5

 

Weekend Series:

TOR @ BOS

HOU @NYY

TBR @ DET

NYM @ BAL

SEA @LAA

 

 

Career fWAR:

 

Urias 4.4 (age 26)

Arroyo 0.4 (age 28)

Chang 0.9 (age 27)

 

Urias was injured at the start of the season. His July OPS in AAA is 839. Maybe he can turn it around? Maybe he doesn't? His ceiling is higher than what we currently have though because he's shown it at the MLB level in two straight years.

[Old Red]

Career fWAR:

 

Urias 4.4 (age 26)

Arroyo 0.4 (age 28)

Chang 0.9 (age 27)

 

Urias was injured at the start of the season. His July OPS in AAA is 839. Maybe he can turn it around? Maybe he doesn't? His ceiling is higher than what we currently have though because he's shown it at the MLB level in two straight years.

 

Kike had shown it at the MLB level too, and how did that work out?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Career fWAR:

 

Urias 4.4 (age 26)

Arroyo 0.4 (age 28)

Chang 0.9 (age 27)

 

Urias was injured at the start of the season. His July OPS in AAA is 839. Maybe he can turn it around? Maybe he doesn't? His ceiling is higher than what we currently have though because he's shown it at the MLB level in two straight years.

 

Chaim said he's "pretty excited" to have Urias because of his intriguing upside... and of course, because he's under control.

 

Do those two reasons show that Bloom is viewing this addition as someone who will give them that playoff push for this season?

[Bellhorn04]

Chaim said he's "pretty excited" to have Urias because of his intriguing upside... and of course, because he's under control.

 

Do those two reasons show that Bloom is viewing this addition as someone who will give them that playoff push for this season?

 

Hey, we're actually getting 4 starting pitchers back. Sale, Whitlock and Houck from the IL, and Paxton from the SOL (Sell Off List).

[Duran Is The Man]

Yu Chang also never had seasons like Urias had in 2021 and 2022. He was injured at the beginning of 2023. If he can turn it around, he's better than any of the other 2B options they have now. They traded a potential Rule 5 guy for him. It was a fine trade. If it doesn't work out, it's no big loss. If it works out, you have a real everyday starting 2B until the younger guys are ready to emerge.

 

this is true. and it would be great if he can turn it around. he has definitely shown he can put up some good numbers.

[Dipre]

That's debatable, Dipre. I'm not saying they should have spent like the Mets and Padres, but they could have spent a bit more. They are now middle of the pack in payroll, for the first time in a long time. And they're certainly not middle of the pack in market value, revenue or ticket prices. So I believe it's very much a debatable point.

 

Signing Kluber for 20 mil, Kike for 15, Jansen for 20 per, and Martin for 17 per would have made you happier then? It's not about how much they spend, it's who they sign. There's no info on a specific mandate to not spend any money. Rather, this has been Bloom's M.O. since his Rays' days. The Sox have consistently been top-echelon spender for years, but why would they continue spending a s*** ton of money during a clear rebuild (or retool if you want to call it that). The problem is that there's nothing in the world easier than spending somebody else's money. If It was JH, I'd keep spending middle of the pack until this team is ready to seriously contend too.

Edited August 4, 2023 by Dipre

[Old Red]

Yu Chang also never had seasons like Urias had in 2021 and 2022. He was injured at the beginning of 2023. If he can turn it around, he's better than any of the other 2B options they have now. They traded a potential Rule 5 guy for him. It was a fine trade. If it doesn't work out, it's no big loss. If it works out, you have a real everyday starting 2B until the younger guys are ready to emerge.

 

Has Urias ever been a FT 2B before? Or a FT any position? Kike had never been FT at any position. Chang had never been FT. Reyes has never been FT, and aArroyo has never been FT. Is it too much to ask for the Red Sox to get someone who is FT? Getting all these guys, and hoping they work out to me is not a good way to go.

[Bellhorn04]

Signing Kluber for 20 mil, Kike for 15, Jansen for 20 per, and Martin for 17 per would have made you happier then? It's not about how much they spend, it's who they sign. There's no info on a specific mandate to not spend any money. Rather, this has been Bloom's M.O. since his Rays' days. The Sox have consistently been top-echelon spender for years, but why would they continue spending a s*** ton of money during a clear rebuild (or retool if you want to call it that). The problem is that there's nothing in the world easier than spending somebody else's money. If It was JH, I'd keep spending middle of the pack until this team is ready to seriously contend too.

 

Now Dipre, you know very well I didn't mean spend more just for the sake of jacking up the payroll number.

 

The team as it stands does have a shot at the playoffs and the playoffs do have a lot of crap-shootiness. The 2021 Red Sox and 2022 Phillies are clear and recent examples.