A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We all know this, and it's a sound draft strategy. You don't have to annoyingly repeat it every chance you get. Spouting an incorrect notions a thousand times won't make it right.

 

Thanks for the guidance. For a second there I must've taken myself too seriously on an anonymous forum where faceless posters known only by aliases gather to offer opinions, predictions, and experiences following a group of adults who play games for millions of dollars.

[moonslav59]

Don't you think re-signing Kike has to be included in his moves for 2023 even though it was done a little early? It had a significant impact on the payroll.

 

I'm fine with counting him and McGuire, EValdez, Abreu, Rosier and Ferguson, plus the cash relief from trading the 2024 Diekman salary.

 

I just picked the winter moves, only, because Bloom was roundly criticized for almost all of them, as well as for letting many from the 2022 bolt- a team roundly criticized as being losers.

 

Even counting Kike, as of now, it looks like Bloom went 5 for 7 on major deals. That's over a 70% success rate, as of now. I guess nothing short of 80% is acceptable, to some.

 

Look, I have some major beefs with the choices made, and the fact that we left a few million on the table.

 

We did not focus enough resources on the rotation, after losing 3 pretty good SP'ers from 2022- actually all 3 had the IP of about 2 solid and durable SP'ers.

 

Many of us, myself included, felt we should have added another SS, despite the promise of Mondesi in May. Not adding Iggy looked like a boo-boo. (He did add Reyes, who might be better than Iggy, though. Cora just refused to play him more.)

 

That being said, the hindsight view is he botched the SS choice, but in March, I did not think it was a horrible plan.

 

Opening Day: Kike, Chang with DHam on the farm

May: Mondesi to take over, if Kike/Chang were floundering or injured.

August: Story to return and be the FT'er.

 

It does make some sense to not invest heavily at SS, when we had so many other holes to fill.

 

Many bitched about Catcher and 1B and the OF, as being rolls of the dice. The fact is, with limited resources, Bloom had to pick and choose where to spend and not spend.

 

He signed Turner to DH and be insurance at 1B.

He signed Yoshida and Duvall to fix the worst Sox OF in my memory.

He signed Jansen and Martin and traded for Joely & Mills to fix a very bad 2022 pen.

 

These moves forced going "light" at 1B, C, SP and SS.

 

The $10M spent on Kluber was a major blunder. We still need a SP'er or two.

 

He rolled the dice on Wong & McGuire and won.

He rolled the dice on Casas and won. (He lost this same dice roll in 2022.)

He won the OF rebuild dice roll by leaps and bounds. (The Ref extension looks good, too.)

He won the DH (back-up 1B/3B) dice roll, too.

He won the pen rebuild roll by a lot.

He won the dice roll on Crawink, Bernardino and others.

 

Some want to focus on only SS and SP, which is their right to do. I don't think anyone disagree, mistakes were made at each slot, but it's not like the original plans were horrid.

 

Take the rotation.

I remember saying counting on Paxton + Sale to get 30 GS'd was pushing it, and we should plan accordingly. It looks like we might reach 30-40. (They are at 24, now.)

I remember being okay with the Kluber signing, as he looked about as good as anyone else making about $10M. (We missed on Eflin, who is headed to the IL after a good start to '23.)

Bello was largely a guess, but was promising.

Pivetta looked like as solid a 5th start as just about anyone else in MLB. His Red Sox numbers since 2020 were as good as most team's 3 or 4 starters.

That's 4 SP'ers, but not without serious questions.

The choices for the 5th SP'er or depth was not bad. I remember saying I wish we had more quality than quantity, but that the quality was not all that bad, and some had promise. Some of that "promise" had to do with Mata, Walter and Murphy, but most was focused on Houck and/or Whitlock filling the need with Crawford and Winckowski looking like longer shot fill-ins.

 

Again, I wished and still wish we had done more. Spending Kike's + Kluber's money on better SP'er choices would have been great, but that's like thinking Bloom needed to hit 85% on his choices to be called a success. To me, that is unrealistic.

 

[moonslav59]

A bit harsh, but the two guys you mention play -- or were supposed to play -- two of the most important positions on the diamond: starting pitcher and shortstop.

 

Bloom deserves the ire of fans and media because he has built extremely flawed big league rosters that have, for the most part, failed miserably in the standings. He has spent plenty of money on busts, and hasn't spent enough to secure some of his "priorities" -- which is what he called Bogaerts.

 

No, the Sox shouldn't have paid X what he got from SD, and yes, we all agree Boston -- where Bogie wanted to spend the rest of his career -- could've signed him for a fraction of that a year or two ago when Bloom chose instead to ink a strikeout king with a bad throwing arm. And I could care less what Bogaerts' WAR is this year, because anything is better than what we got instead from Story, who hasn't even got out of boot camp yet.

 

Bloom assembled the worst pitching staff in Red Sox history in '20, refused to pay for better relievers at the deadline in '21 (like Houston did, which was the true difference in going to the World Series), CBOed another cellar dweller last year, and is now in charge of a bad defensive club that starts openers every other day. Sure he finally addressed the back-end of the bullpen -- hey, he did his job! -- but come on, Jansen also has five losses (one less than the staff leaders).

 

No doubt, Bloom had some bust signings and the JBJ trade brought down his trade grade, too.

 

Overall, considering the money spent since day one and the massive amount of holes needed to fill, all of the signings were under $10M, until Story in March '22. What did you expect?

 

He did sign Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Renfroe, and a few under the radar signings and additions like Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder and Bernardino.

The Betts and Beni trades look better, now, as does the Pivetta trade. Ottavino's trade was okay. The Diekman dump looks good. The Vaz trade looks promising. To me, they more than outweigh the JBJ trade.

 

He swung and missed on Richards ($10M), Kluber (10), Perez (6 and 5), Kike (10) and Barnes (9 x 2.) Some lower deals flopped, too, but that should be expected. (Marwin, Andreise, Santana...)

 

All in all, I don't see a grade lower than C or C- for all the moves made since 2020. The Story deal looks bad, but is still TBD. The Devers extension begins in '24.

[Randy Red Sox]

I would agree with a C or C- on Bloom so far but pretty sure Henry gives him a much higher mark for trimming the payroll while remaning "competitive"

No doubt, Bloom had some bust signings and the JBJ trade brought down his trade grade, too.

 

Overall, considering the money spent since day one and the massive amount of holes needed to fill, all of the signings were under $10M, until Story in March '22. What did you expect?

 

He did sign Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Renfroe, and a few under the radar signings and additions like Whitlock, Schreiber, Refsnyder and Bernardino.

The Betts and Beni trades look better, now, as does the Pivetta trade. Ottavino's trade was okay. The Diekman dump looks good. The Vaz trade looks promising. To me, they more than outweigh the JBJ trade.

 

He swung and missed on Richards ($10M), Kluber (10), Perez (6 and 5), Kike (10) and Barnes (9 x 2.) Some lower deals flopped, too, but that should be expected. (Marwin, Andreise, Santana...)

 

All in all, I don't see a grade lower than C or C- for all the moves made since 2020. The Story deal looks bad, but is still TBD. The Devers extension begins in '24.

[moonslav59]

I would agree with a C or C- on Bloom so far but pretty sure Henry gives him a much higher mark for trimming the payroll while remaning "competitive"

 

I think if you graded every move, while considering the money spent and budget given, you might grade him a little higher. We tend to focus and remember the bad moves more.

 

For example, we remember the Renfroe trade but not his signing for just $3M.

 

[Larry Cook]

I guess the jack of trade activity means no Rafeala in centerfield this year

[Randy Red Sox]

you are the one who gave him the C or C-. I was simply agreeing with you

I think if you graded every move, while considering the money spent and budget given, you might grade him a little higher. We tend to focus and remember the bad moves more.

 

For example, we remember the Renfroe trade but not his signing for just $3M.

 

[moonslav59]

you are the one who gave him the C or C-. I was simply agreeing with you

 

No. I said I can't see giving him a grade lower than C or C- for all his moves since 2020. I know many here give him a lower grade or even an F.

 

I'd give him a B- on his ML roster moves, but much is still TBD, namely Story and all the prospects yet to advance to the bigs and guys like Wink with several years left of control.

 

The farm is impossible to grade objectively, but it appears like he has a solid B+ going, right now.

 

Just my opinion.

[cp176]

A bit harsh, but the two guys you mention play -- or were supposed to play -- two of the most important positions on the diamond: starting pitcher and shortstop.

 

Bloom deserves the ire of fans and media because he has built extremely flawed big league rosters that have, for the most part, failed miserably in the standings. He has spent plenty of money on busts, and hasn't spent enough to secure some of his "priorities" -- which is what he called Bogaerts.

 

No, the Sox shouldn't have paid X what he got from SD, and yes, we all agree Boston -- where Bogie wanted to spend the rest of his career -- could've signed him for a fraction of that a year or two ago when Bloom chose instead to ink a strikeout king with a bad throwing arm. And I could care less what Bogaerts' WAR is this year, because anything is better than what we got instead from Story, who hasn't even got out of boot camp yet.

 

Bloom assembled the worst pitching staff in Red Sox history in '20, refused to pay for better relievers at the deadline in '21 (like Houston did, which was the true difference in going to the World Series), CBOed another cellar dweller last year, and is now in charge of a bad defensive club that starts openers every other day. Sure he finally addressed the back-end of the bullpen -- hey, he did his job! -- but come on, Jansen also has five losses (one less than the staff leaders).

 

The reality of a post like this really bugs 3 or 4 of the 10 or so people that regularly post her! lol Good job.

[cp176]

Thanks for the guidance. For a second there I must've taken myself too seriously on an anonymous forum where faceless posters known only by aliases gather to offer opinions, predictions, and experiences following a group of adults who play games for millions of dollars.

 

Oh boy now you've gone and done it.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm fine with counting him and McGuire, EValdez, Abreu, Rosier and Ferguson, plus the cash relief from trading the 2024 Diekman salary.

 

The Vaz trade was fine. I can't get excited about the Diekman-McGuire trade. I don't like McGuire and the cash saved either went to yacht upgrades or new earrings for Linda.

[notin]

The Vaz trade was fine. I can't get excited about the Diekman-McGuire trade. I don't like McGuire and the cash saved either went to yacht upgrades or new earrings for Linda.

 

Oh yeah. We all forgot how much you liked her old earrings…

[mvp 78]

Thanks for the guidance. For a second there I must've taken myself too seriously on an anonymous forum where faceless posters known only by aliases gather to offer opinions, predictions, and experiences following a group of adults who play games for millions of dollars.

 

Faceless? We used to know what each other looked like before the invading horde.

[notin]

Faceless? We used to know what each other looked like before the invading horde.

 

So we saved you from that…

 

[mvp 78]

So we saved you from that…

 

 

I think it was better when we actually knew more about each other than just "this guy hates Bloom for X reason."

[notin]

I think it was better when we actually knew more about each other than just "this guy hates Bloom for X reason."

 

Invite us all down to Florida…

[Dipre]

Thanks for the guidance. For a second there I must've taken myself too seriously on an anonymous forum where faceless posters known only by aliases gather to offer opinions, predictions, and experiences following a group of adults who play games for millions of dollars.

 

Sure, I'll be here all day.

[Dipre]

The reality of a post like this really bugs 3 or 4 of the 10 or so people that regularly post her! lol Good job.

 

Thanks for your amazing contributions to the baseball discussion.

[Dipre]

Invite us all down to Florida…

 

You can all come to the Dominican.

[mvp 78]

Invite us all down to Florida…

 

It's hot, the pool is hot too. If you have 10,000 posts, hit me up.

[mvp 78]

You can all come to the Dominican.

 

My dog ate my passport.

[mvp 78]

The reality of a post like this really bugs 3 or 4 of the 10 or so people that regularly post her! lol Good job.

 

Don't post her. She doesn't deserve it.

[mvp 78]

Thanks for your amazing contributions to the baseball discussion.

 

It's Kenley's 2nd best season since 2017, but he actually kinda low key sucks because he has 5 losses!

[Maxbialystock]

It's Kenley's 2nd best season since 2017, but he actually kinda low key sucks because he has 5 losses!

 

I don't think he's worth $16M because he's past his prime, but I do like those 23 saves.

[notin]

My dog ate my passport.

 

This too shall pass…

[mvp 78]

This too shall pass…

 

So did the dog.

[moonslav59]

I was thinking of starting a Part III thread, as I have done in the past, right after the trade deadline, but this one was so uneventful, for the Red Sox perspective, that I won't do it, this year.

 

We may see some major changes to the 26 man roster in the next few weeks, as Urias joins the team, Schreiber and McgUire start playing more, and players start coming off the IL.

 

A 100% healthy team would create some difficult decisions to be made, but that's not a bad thing, and besides, has that ever happened in Sox history?

 

It looks like Story may join the club in a week or so. Arroyo, Reyes and Chang are out of options, but apparently Urias has one remaining.

 

Sale should be the first SP'er to come back- maybe in 10-15 days. Jacques can be demoted or Llovera DFA'd to make room on the 26 or 40, as he is on the 60 day IL. (Ort is on the 60 day, too, so DFA'ing him does not free up a 40 man roster slot.

 

Houck and Whitlock's ETAs are a bit murky. Some say September, but apparently they are throwing pen sessions and may start rehabbing at any moment, and could possibly join the big club in 15-25 days, or so.

 

Joely's return might cause a squeeze, as he has no options (DFA Bleier?)

 

Kluber could easily be DFA'd once he comes off the IL.

 

Is this the best 26 man roster?

 

13 Pitchers:

SP: Bello, Paxton, Sale, Crawford, Paxton

LR: Whitlock, Houck

SR: Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Winckowski, Bernardino, Joely

(DFA'd due to out of options: Kluber, Bleier, Llovera)

 

13 Everyday Player(DFA due to out of options: Reyes)

C: Wong, McGuire

1B: Casas

2B: Arroyo (0 options)

SS: Story, Chang (0 options)

3B: Devers

LF: Yoshida, Refsnyder

CF: Duran, Duvall

RF: Dugo

DH: Turner

 

The rest of the 40 (players with options):

P: Murphy, Walter, Robertson, Mata (to 60 day IL?), Jacques (DFA?), Garza (DFA?)

C: none

1B: Dalbec

2B: EValdez (to 60 day IL?)

SS: DHam

3B: Urias (SS/2B) (to 26 and DFA or phantom IL Chang until Sept call-ups?)

OF: Abreu, Rafaela

 

That's only 12 players.

Do we demote Bernardino, so we can keep Bleier? (that makes 13 in the minors)

 

If we can get healthy or even just 24-25 top men healthy, we can be a force.

 

This could be our line-up:

 

1. Duran CF/LF

2. Yoshida LF/DH

3. Turner DH/2B/1B

4. Devers 3B

5. Casas 1B

6. Story SS

7. Dugo RF/Duvall RF or CF/Refsnyder LF

8. Wong/McGuire C

9. Arroyo/Reyes/Chang/Urias 2B

[moonslav59]

It looks like TOR and either TEX or HOU are our best bets to pass in the next 2 months.

 

The AL

 

66-41 BAL (up 1.5 on TBR but 3 in the loss column)

61-46 TEX (up 0.5 on HOU)

55-53 MIN (up 2.0 on CLE, but neither are a real WC threat)

 

WC

66-44 TBR +7.5 on BOS

61-47 HOU +3.5 on BOS

59-49 TOR +1.5 on BOS

 

57-50 BOS -1.5

56-52 LAA -3.0

55-52 NYY -3.5 (2 down on BOS)

55-52 SEA -3.5

 

Next 12-13 games after tomorrow's series finale:

 

BOS: (1 more @ SEA), 3 v TOR, 4 v KCR, 3 v DET, 3 @WSH (after SEA, we play 10 of 13 at home.)

 

TOR: (2 more v BAL), 3 @BOS, 4 @CLE, 3 v CHC, 2 v PHI 7 Home-5 Away after the BAL series.

 

TEX: (2 more w CHW), 3 v MIA, 3 @OAK, 3 @SFG, 3 v LAA 6 H/ 6A

 

HOU: (1 more v CLE), 3 @NYY, 3 @BAL, 3 v LAA, 3 @MIA 3 H/ 9 A vs all winning record teams

 

These next 2 weeks gives us a chance to gain some ground, as those in front of us will be knocking each other off.

 

We cannot afford to slouch vs lesser opponents, anymore. We need to win 2 or 3 games in every series.

Edited August 2, 2023 by moonslav59

[notin]

So did the dog.

 

Just because you’re going to Switzrland doesn’t mean you need a chocolate-covered passport…

[Bellhorn04]

I was thinking of starting a Part III thread, as I have done in the past, right after the trade deadline, but this one was so uneventful, for the Red Sox perspective, that I won't do it, this year.

 

What we need now is an AL Wild Card race thread.