A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Personally, I'd rather the SOX trade Kike instead of Duvall. Kike provides much less to the SOX PO hunt. At least Duvall does provide a power hitting RH bat to a predominantly LH line-up. Seriously, what does Kike provide? Most here, myself included, don't even like to see his name in the line-up.

 

I'm not sure Kiké has much trade value and the Sox would have to eat his price tag. Duvall has played pretty poorly since coming back from injury so I don't think he's going anywhere.

[notin]

I'm not sure Kiké has much trade value and the Sox would have to eat his price tag. Duvall has played pretty poorly since coming back from injury so I don't think he's going anywhere.

 

A team looking for a RHH power bat might take a flier on Dunn. Jorge Soler wasn’t exactly lighting up NL pitching when Atlanta acquired, presumably only because the price was right. And that deal could not have worked out any better…

[moonslav59]

We are on pace for 86-76.

 

If we throw out 2021, the win progress is steady and pretty close to realistic expectations.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure Kiké has much trade value and the Sox would have to eat his price tag. Duvall has played pretty poorly since coming back from injury so I don't think he's going anywhere.

 

He’s at .815 in the last 2 weeks. If he does that over the next 2 weeks or better, GMs will be calling.

[mvp 78]

He’s at .815 in the last 2 weeks. If he does that over the next 2 weeks or better, GMs will be calling.

 

That's only 7 games because of the AS break. Put it back to 10 games and it's a wRC+ of 70. Really skewed because of 2 HR's in the past few games. I'm not sure two more HR's will get GM's calling.

[mvp 78]

We are on pace for 86-76.

 

If we throw out 2021, the win progress is steady and pretty close to realistic expectations.

 

Why should it take Bloom 4 years to make this team a .500+ ballclub if we're throwing out 2021? If you throw any year out it would be 2020 (pandemic, Sale out unexpectedly, Mookie trade, ERod out unexpectedly, no cap room due to reset).

 

The realistic expectations were: he was given some All Star adjacent players with a tight cap situation and needed to try to build a farm and be relatively competitive. It really worked in 2021. It's close to working in 2023 even though the rotation hit some devastating injuries. The problem was that last season was an unmitigated failure where they had a bunch of expiring contracts and the team was basically a 162 game funeral. Bloom should have just blown up that team and built for the future rather than dragging everyone through it.

[mvp 78]

Are people good with Casas now?

 

@itsbrianbarrett

Casas

 

Since the start of June

 

128 PAs

 

.283/.367/.531/.898

 

.248 ISO - 27th of 176 qualifiers

 

11.7% walk rate - 33rd

 

Barrel percentage - 14.1% (23rd)

 

Hard hit rate - 50.6% (32nd)

[Dipre]

Are people good with Casas now?

 

@itsbrianbarrett

Casas

 

Since the start of June

 

128 PAs

 

.283/.367/.531/.898

 

.248 ISO - 27th of 176 qualifiers

 

11.7% walk rate - 33rd

 

Barrel percentage - 14.1% (23rd)

 

Hard hit rate - 50.6% (32nd)

 

My homeboy!

 

TC doesn't just stand for Triston Casas, it also stands for Titanic Crusher!

[dannycater]

Gotta give the Sox/Cora/Bloom credit and the team is finding a winning attitude of late...wrong division for Sox, but obviously the entire East just happens to be very good this year.

[Bellhorn04]

He’s at .815 in the last 2 weeks. If he does that over the next 2 weeks or better, GMs will be calling.

 

And no way in hell is Duvall traded unless we fall out of it.

[mvp 78]

The only trade piece of value (that isn't projected to be on the roster next season) is Paxton. Sox may just want to keep him around for the QO, which I said a few months ago was a good problem to have.

[Dojji]

Why should it take Bloom 4 years to make this team a .500+ ballclub if we're throwing out 2021?

My personal opinion is that the scorched earth Dumbo inflicted on the farm system was simply gonna take time to correct. It was worth it for the championship, but we all knew years after 2018 were going to be tough, especially after it became clear that the rotation Dumbo assembled wasn't gonna hold up

 

I don't care how big your budget is, if your farm system isn't producing effective starting players from time to time you're not gonna do much. That goes double if you can't keep a stable rotation. We were dealing with ordinary attrition and didn't have ordinary replacements. Now we're starting to see those ordinary replacements in guys like Chang, Wong, Bello, Kutter, etc. The farm system has healed and is starting to put talent on the roster again. Until that started happening, especially in the same division as a player development dreamteam like Tampa, it wasn't realistic to expect dominance.

[Dipre]

My personal opinion is that the scorched earth Dumbo inflicted on the farm system was simply gonna take time to correct. It was worth it for the championship, but we all knew years after 2018 were going to be tough, especially after it became clear that the rotation Dumbo assembled wasn't gonna hold up

 

I don't care how big your budget is, if your farm system isn't producing effective starting players from time to time you're not gonna do much. That goes double if you can't keep a stable rotation. We were dealing with ordinary attrition and didn't have ordinary replacements. Now we're starting to see those ordinary replacements in guys like Chang, Wong, Bello, Kutter, etc. The farm system has healed and is starting to put talent on the roster again. Until that started happening, especially in the same division as a player development dreamteam like Tampa, it wasn't realistic to expect dominance.

 

...Or high-level spending.

[Dojji]

...Or high-level spending.

 

I'm not sure what they woulda spent on that would have meant a damn in this situation TBH.

[Dipre]

But people keep whining about the payroll and how Henry doesn't care about the team. In the end, this season has been marred by where they spent the funds (Kluber, Kike) and not the amount of funds available.

[mvp 78]

My personal opinion is that the scorched earth Dumbo inflicted on the farm system was simply gonna take time to correct. It was worth it for the championship, but we all knew years after 2018 were going to be tough, especially after it became clear that the rotation Dumbo assembled wasn't gonna hold up

 

I don't care how big your budget is, if your farm system isn't producing effective starting players from time to time you're not gonna do much. That goes double if you can't keep a stable rotation. We were dealing with ordinary attrition and didn't have ordinary replacements. Now we're starting to see those ordinary replacements in guys like Chang, Wong, Bello, Kutter, etc. The farm system has healed and is starting to put talent on the roster again. Until that started happening, especially in the same division as a player development dreamteam like Tampa, it wasn't realistic to expect dominance.

 

I think there's a difference between expecting dominance and expecting a team that is above .500.

 

Bloom made roster construction mistakes in 2022 and even some in 2023 (SS/2B, injury prone SP's). I can't fault him for a dry pipeline or an ownership group that wouldn't let him deal off the high end talent at the trade deadline. I can fault him for a moribund team last season that limped its way through 162 games. The current squad seems to have better vibes and should at least end the year on the right side of .500 even if they don't make the playoffs. Seems like that's a better outcome for fans.

[Dojji]

I can't fault him for a dry pipeline or an ownership group that wouldn't let him deal off the high end talent at the trade deadline. I can fault him for a moribund team last season that limped its way through 162 games.

 

Mm.

 

I'm looking through the 2022 roster trying to purge my mind of the actual frustration. I try to be objective. you know that. Frankly, I can see what the plan was. The talent was there, it just didn't fall together. Every big league team always gambles to a certain extent on player progress in order to forge a roster that can win games. We didn't get lucky in some key areas. Lot of guys you'd think you could count on to take steps forward just didn't.

 

On the other hand the failure of the plan in 2022 was what gave guys like Duran, Bello, Crawford, Casas, Wong, etc, the opportunity to start their careers and get the experience that's helping them stand up and be counted today.

 

The only mistake I really see in 2022 was letting Wacha sign elsewhere for so little. We coulda used him this year. even if he reverted more to his career form he would have been a good 4-5 inning chewer. Bogaerts though, he needed to go like Nomar needed to go in 04. He's getting slower and isn't what we needed at SS anymore.

[mvp 78]

But people keep whining about the payroll and how Henry doesn't care about the team. In the end, this season has been marred by where they spent the funds (Kluber, Kike) and not the amount of funds available.

 

If they didn't have Kluber or Kiké, they'd be about $35M under the CBT. I understand NOT spending on the available SS's (Turner, Swanson, Correa) since MIF is the strength of the farm system right now. Why not use the funds to give Eovaldi the contract they initially offered him and he came back to Sox and requested? Get local boy Hill back on a one year deal and you're still way under the cap. One year deal for Andrus to play SS and you've solved the Story injury. Those wouldn't have been sexy moves, but they would have been competent moves. This team would have been much better off for it. Whitlock or Houck could have been pushed to the pen.

[mvp 78]

Mm.

 

I'm looking through the 2022 roster trying to purge my mind of the actual frustration. I try to be objective. you know that. Frankly, I can see what the plan was. The talent was there, it just didn't fall together. Every big league team always gambles to a certain extent on player progress in order to forge a roster that can win games. We didn't get lucky in some key areas. Lot of guys you'd think you could count on to take steps forward just didn't.

 

On the other hand the failure of the plan in 2022 was what gave guys like Duran, Bello, Crawford, Casas, Wong, etc, the opportunity to start their careers and get the experience that's helping them stand up and be counted today.

 

The only mistake I really see in 2022 was letting Wacha sign elsewhere for so little. We coulda used him this year. even if he reverted more to his career form he would have been a good 4-5 inning chewer. Bogaerts though, he needed to go like Nomar needed to go in 04. He's getting slower and isn't what we needed at SS anymore.

 

I think with 2022, Bloom saw that it wasn't working and tried to start trading off pieces. However, the negative reaction to the Vaz trade probably got ownership a little gun shy and forced Bloom to really half ass the trading deadline. If he could just work in a vacuum and run this team without outside distractions, we'd be in a better place. He's not the perfect CBO, but nobody is. DD had his faults. Ben had his. Theo had his share of mistakes too.

[Dojji]

I didn't like the Vaz trade either. Good starting catchers are hard to find and CV was a a good starter.

 

That said, Vaz' bat completely disappeared the moment he left Boston ,so.. I mean, if Bloom saw that coming, new that his bat speed was getting a bit slower or something, that makes it a lot more understandable in hindsight. I'd rather have Wong than 2023 Vazquez.

[Bellhorn04]

I think with 2022, Bloom saw that it wasn't working and tried to start trading off pieces. However, the negative reaction to the Vaz trade probably got ownership a little gun shy and forced Bloom to really half ass the trading deadline.

 

They had already announced Bogaerts wouldn't be traded long before the deadline.

 

I don't think the half-ass approach was because of the Vaz trade, I think the Vaz trade was an integral part of the half-assery. Reportedly Bloom offered JDM around but didn't get an offer he liked enough.

[Bellhorn04]

I didn't like the Vaz trade either. Good starting catchers are hard to find and CV was a a good starter.

 

That said, Vaz' bat completely disappeared the moment he left Boston ,so.. I mean, if Bloom saw that coming, new that his bat speed was getting a bit slower or something, that makes it a lot more understandable in hindsight. I'd rather have Wong than 2023 Vazquez.

 

Wong has been a huge, largely unexpected plus. Bloom deserves much credit for that.

[Dojji]

He does! I'm not the only one who didn't see this potential in Connor Wong.

[moonslav59]

Why should it take Bloom 4 years to make this team a .500+ ballclub if we're throwing out 2021?

 

I’ve explained why dozens of times why I think expectation should have been to take 4 years to get to about an 86 Winn team.

[mvp 78]

I didn't like the Vaz trade either. Good starting catchers are hard to find and CV was a a good starter.

 

That said, Vaz' bat completely disappeared the moment he left Boston ,so.. I mean, if Bloom saw that coming, new that his bat speed was getting a bit slower or something, that makes it a lot more understandable in hindsight. I'd rather have Wong than 2023 Vazquez.

 

His metrics in 2021 were pretty bad. Catchers can age really fast and his contract was higher than what I would have paid. Nice guy though.

[mvp 78]

They had already announced Bogaerts wouldn't be traded long before the deadline.

 

I don't think the half-ass approach was because of the Vaz trade, I think the Vaz trade was an integral part of the half-assery. Reportedly Bloom offered JDM around but didn't get an offer he liked enough.

 

Not good enough to get under the cap or nobody would take on salary?

[mvp 78]

I’ve explained why dozens of times why I think expectation should have been to take 4 years to get to about an 86 Winn team.

 

Not with the talent that currently existed on that team:

Nate

Xander

Devers

ERod

JD

Beni

Vaz

 

Just adding cheap defensive first players around them would get them to be .500 or better every year. It also took too long to get returns from the Mookie trade and the biggest prospect can't flame out.

[moonslav59]

And no way in hell is Duvall traded unless we fall out of it.

 

Three way trade that brings us a SPer. We throw in someone like Mata or Perales.

[moonslav59]

But people keep whining about the payroll and how Henry doesn't care about the team. In the end, this season has been marred by where they spent the funds (Kluber, Kike) and not the amount of funds available.

 

So, basically Bloom had to hit 80-90% or higher on his winter signings to please you.

[moonslav59]

I think with 2022, Bloom saw that it wasn't working and tried to start trading off pieces. However, the negative reaction to the Vaz trade probably got ownership a little gun shy and forced Bloom to really half ass the trading deadline. .

 

Basically, the crybaby fan argument some clown espoused, earlier.