A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[vegasbob]

Regardless of whether certain current players or high level prospects came from DD's regime or Bloom's tenure, the 2023 season, especially May-June-July to date, has established a MLB level core of players, with more upside possible.

 

Connor Wong at catcher, Duran in CF, Casas at 1B and Devers at 3B are a good, young, cost efficient group , accepting that Raffy's deal is not an overpay. If Story is able to fill the gap at SS as a power hitter and plus fielder , the majority of the infield is set for multiple years. Yoshida is locked up and a good hitter so whether in LF or DH, he fills another slot for 4 more years. Verdugo could be extended at less than A-S level prices and secure RF . That core is , in fact, the bulk of your 2024 team. Turner may lend some veteran AB's

and be a plug at 1B/3B/2B. Refsnyder is under contract for 2024. McGuire is under control . Duvall, Hernandez , Chang, Valdez , Alfaro, Arroyo ,etc are all highly expendable and replaceable, though Arroyo may be a keeper for another year at 2B.

 

On the pitching side, Bello, Crawford , Houck, Whitlock , Jansen , Winckowski are their own core . Sale is Sale for the final time, who knows what he brings. Is Pivetta an asset or not ? Bloom's job will be to replace Paxton, Kluber with capable starters, under club control for a couple years . Maybe one established FA.

 

So the point is that "A Realistic View of 2024 , Part 1" is already on the monitor and could be a serious contender.

Edited July 17, 2023 by vegasbob

[moonslav59]

I think it's the same guy who second-guesses most of his lineups.

 

1/10 maybe

[moonslav59]

Regardless of whether certain current players or high level prospects came from DD's regime or Bloom's tenure, the 2023 season, especially May-June-July to date, has established a MLB level core of players, with more upside possible.

 

Connor Wong at catcher, Duran in CF, Casas at 1B and Devers at 3B are a good, young, cost efficient group , accepting that Raffy's deal is not an overpay. If Story is able to fill the gap at SS as a power hitter and plus fielder , the majority of the infield is set for multiple years. Yoshida is locked up and a good hitter so whether in LF or DH, he fills another slot for 4 more years. Verdugo could be extended at less than A-S level prices and secure RF . That core is , in fact, the bulk of your 2024 team. Turner may lend some veteran AB's

and be a plug at 1B/3B/2B. Refsnyder is under contract for 2024. McGuire is under control . Duvall, Hernandez , Chang, Valdez , Alfaro, Arroyo ,etc are all highly expendable and replaceable, though Arroyo may be a keeper for another year at 2B.

 

On the pitching side, Bello, Crawford , Houck, Whitlock , Jansen , Winckowski are their own core . Sale is Sale for the final time, who knows what he brings. Is Pivetta an asset or not ? Bloom's job will be to replace Paxton, Kluber with capable starters, under club control for a couple years . Maybe one established FA.

 

So the point is that "A Realistic View of 2024 , Part 1" is already on the monitor and could be a serious contender.

 

It’s always a good thing to see that the players you may lose to free agency, other than Paxton, is not an integral part of our current success.

[moonslav59]

Yanks, O's and Rays lost, tonight.

 

We are no longer in last place. Nice to see it's the Yanks! (An added bonus)

 

ALE

-- TBR

-1.0 BAL

-5.5 TOR

-8.0 BOS

-9.0 NYY

 

WC

+5.5 BAL

+1.0 TOR

0.0 HOU (did not play, tonight)

-1.5 BOS

-2.5 NYY

-4.5 SEA

-5.5 LAA

-6.0 CLE (-1.5 from MIN in ALC)

 

We got back into this thing, very quickly!

[Dojji]

We are definitely playoff contenders. I look at Houston and Toronto and see teams we can definitely compete with, especially as some of our young dynamos start maturing. I still wouldn't go crazy buying talent, but if a good deal is out there, I'd be happy to see Bloom pull the trigger.

[moonslav59]

We are definitely playoff contenders. I look at Houston and Toronto and see teams we can definitely compete with, especially as some of our young dynamos start maturing. I still wouldn't go crazy buying talent, but if a good deal is out there, I'd be happy to see Bloom pull the trigger.

 

I'm starting to think TEX, BAL and TBR are within our sights, now, too.

[moonslav59]

Here are some eye-opening numbers:

 

Out of all the significant players on the 2023 Sox to date, only 2 had over 300 PAs with the Sox in 2022 (Dugo w 644 & Devers w 614.) One could add Kike at 402 to make it 3, but even that number is amazing.

 

644 Dugo

614 Devers

402 Kike

396 Story (0PAs in '23, so far)

353 Dalbec

300 Arroyo

223 Duran

177 Refsnyder

108 McGuire

95 Casas

56 Wong

26 Chang

 

On the pitching side...

Before Pivetta's resurgence, one could have argued we have no significant pitchers on the 2023 roster that had more than 79 IP on the ''22 Sox:

 

180 Pivetta

78 Whitlock

77 Crawford

70 Wink

65 Schreiber

60 Houck

57 Bello

6 Sale

 

[redsoxrules]

Yanks, O's and Rays lost, tonight.

 

We are no longer in last place. Nice to see it's the Yanks! (An added bonus)

 

ALE

-- TBR

-1.0 BAL

-5.5 TOR

-8.0 BOS

-9.0 NYY

 

WC

+5.5 BAL

+1.0 TOR

0.0 HOU (did not play, tonight)

-1.5 BOS

-2.5 NYY

-4.5 SEA

-5.5 LAA

-6.0 CLE (-1.5 from MIN in ALC)

 

We got back into this thing, very quickly!

 

Still 1.5 with the recent hot streak. We've seen this picture before this year and following hot streaks they seem go into a funk. If that happens again after they play Oakland they will be quickly 5 games out.

 

Fingers cross that they no longer have 2-8 funks coming the rest of the year

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Still 1.5 with the recent hot streak. We've seen this picture before this year and following hot streaks they seem go into a funk. If that happens again after they play Oakland they will be quickly 5 games out.

 

Fingers cross that they no longer have 2-8 funks coming the rest of the year

 

Assuming the A's series goes well, here are the last nine games for Boston in July: Mets 3, Braves 2 at home; Giants 3, M's 1 on road.

 

If the Sox are still close to a wild card entering August, it's notable they play 10 games vs. their current nearest comp: Blue Jays 3, Astros 7 (btw, expect each of those clubs to make moves to improve by the deadline).

[notin]

It’s always a good thing to see that the players you may lose to free agency, other than Paxton, is not an integral part of our current success.

 

And Turner.

 

It’s a $6.7mill buyout. He’s taking it…

[Bellhorn04]

And Turner.

 

It’s a $6.7mill buyout. He’s taking it…

 

Can you explain how that buyout works?

[mvp 78]

Yanks, O's and Rays lost, tonight.

 

We are no longer in last place. Nice to see it's the Yanks! (An added bonus)

 

ALE

-- TBR

-1.0 BAL

-5.5 TOR

-8.0 BOS

-9.0 NYY

 

WC

+5.5 BAL

+1.0 TOR

0.0 HOU (did not play, tonight)

-1.5 BOS

-2.5 NYY

-4.5 SEA

-5.5 LAA

-6.0 CLE (-1.5 from MIN in ALC)

 

We got back into this thing, very quickly!

 

Yup, that's what happens when you play some really terrible teams.

[mvp 78]

And Turner.

 

It’s a $6.7mill buyout. He’s taking it…

 

Even if he's just more of a part time player next season, that bat is still really valuable. Sox should try to keep him around.

[mvp 78]

Can you explain how that buyout works?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/details-on-justin-turners-red-sox-contract.html

 

The Vayner Sports client will make an $8.3MM salary this year. At season’s end, he’ll have to decide on either a $13.4MM player option or a $6.7MM buyout to head back to free agency. That lofty buyout means Turner would collect $15MM for one season if he opts out, and he’d only have to top $6.7MM on the open market to come out ahead financially.

[Bellhorn04]

Yup, that's what happens when you play some really terrible teams.

 

Say what? They took 5 of 6 from the Jays and Rangers during this run.

 

Also, one of the knocks on this team was not beating the bad teams.

[Dipre]

Say what? They took 5 of 6 from the Jays and Rangers during this run.

 

Also, one of the knocks on this team was not beating the bad teams.

 

They have a substantially better record against teams above .500 than under.

 

They are 32-25 against opponents over .500, and 19-19 against opponents below .500.

[moonslav59]

Still 1.5 with the recent hot streak. We've seen this picture before this year and following hot streaks they seem go into a funk. If that happens again after they play Oakland they will be quickly 5 games out.

 

Fingers cross that they no longer have 2-8 funks coming the rest of the year

 

That’s always a worry, for us and the other teams, too.

 

Funks have run rampant, this year. Hell, the O’s have almost caught the Rays!

 

I might be blinded by our recent success, but this team looks like a winning team. I know it sounds hypocritical, as I blasted those who said, “This is who we are- a .500 team,” after a couple of our funks.

 

Winning like this with just 2 legit SPers makes me start to think the sky might be the limit, if we ever get healthy or trade for a legit starter.

 

Call me biased, if you wish. I won’t deny it.

[Bellhorn04]

They have a substantially better record against teams above .500 than under.

 

They are 32-25 against opponents over .500, and 19-19 against opponents below .500.

 

Right, so mvp's comment was a tad off the mark.

[mvp 78]

Right, so mvp's comment was a tad off the mark.

 

Never.

[mvp 78]

They just went 6-1 against the A's and Cubs. Of course they'd bump up the standings a little.

[notin]

Can you explain how that buyout works?

 

He has a player option for $13.4mill with a $6.7mill buyout if he opts out, meaning anything over a one year $6.7mill deal is a pay raise…

[Bellhorn04]

They just went 6-1 against the A's and Cubs. Of course they'd bump up the standings a little.

 

As has been thoroughly documented, they have played better against the better teams.

 

So your "criticism" is a tad off the mark.

[mvp 78]

As has been thoroughly documented, they have played better against the better teams.

 

So your "criticism" is a tad off the mark.

 

.500 against BAL

.125 against TBR

 

Take away the 7-0 against the fake ass Jays and they are .500 against every other team above .500.

[Bellhorn04]

Plus the Cubs aren't even a bad team. They have a run differential of +19.

[Bellhorn04]

.500 against BAL

.125 against TBR

 

Take away the 7-0 against the fake ass Jays and they are .500 against every other team above .500.

 

Take away the gunshot and the Lincolns would have really enjoyed the play.

 

Your cherry-picking is getting out of control.

[moonslav59]

Plus the Cubs aren't even a bad team. They have a run differential of +19.

 

The only plus run diff in the NLC!

[mvp 78]

Plus the Cubs aren't even a bad team. They have a run differential of +19.

 

They're the Cubs. They let Punky Brewster into the dugout.

[Dipre]

.500 against BAL

.125 against TBR

 

Take away the 7-0 against the fake ass Jays and they are .500 against every other team above .500.

 

The goalposts are in place for a reason.

[Hugh2]

.500 against BAL

.125 against TBR

 

Take away the 7-0 against the fake ass Jays and they are .500 against every other team above .500.

 

Take out the losses to the Rays and it looks even better and they got a playoff spot locked.

[mvp 78]

Take out the losses to the Rays and it looks even better and they got a playoff spot locked.

 

Would they theoretically have to play the Rays in the playoffs or no?