A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Tampa Bay North would

 

1) trade Pivetta at deadline

2) trade Verdugo at deadline

 

Both have 1 1/2 years of team control left.

 

They would bring up Abreau and play him in left field

They would go with Sale, Paxton, Bello, Kluber and one of Houck/Whitlock as starters.

 

Abreu would most likely play RF as he's fairly athletic.

[mvp 78]

So after 42 games, we're scoring 5.40 per game and allowing 5.36 per game.

 

Grape job Bloom!

 

I still type in Ben like half the time...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Grape job Bloom!

 

I still type in Ben like half the time...

 

Grape job can be ambivalent.

 

Stomp our feet enough, then show a little patience, grapes can ferment into vino. However, left on the vine too long, interest can shrivel to the size of raisins.

 

But no matter the after taste, posters will always reflect a fine whine.

[moonslav59]

Grapes of Wrath is more like it.

[moonslav59]

Houston has now passed us in the WC standings. I mentioned a few days ago, how I was in more fear of the two teams behind us (NYY & HOU) than he 2 in front (TOR & BAL), and now we have 2 of those 4 to pass to win a WC slot.

 

+3 BAL

+1 TOR

- NYY

-1.0 HOU

-1.5 BOS

-1.5 LAA

-2.0 SEA

 

Now, we are letting SEA into the mix.

 

It's time to knock them down a notch or two. This is the time we need to win, as the ALE teams are playing each other, a lot, and one will lose on those nights.

[moonslav59]

It's really been a yo-yo year, and it's hard to get a read on this team. They seem to have energy and grit, but fall so flat, sometimes, that I have to wonder if this will be an ongoing trend.

 

It's interesting that 10 of the 15 AL teams have winning records, while the last WC slot in the NL would go to either MIA or PHI at 20-21.

 

The ALE and ALW both have 4 of 5 teams with winning records.

 

In the NL, 2 divisions have 2 winning teams and the NLE is like the ALC, both having just one winning team.

 

We are a quarter of the way through a long season, and there is plenty of time for teams to make serious moves, in either direction. I'm still optimistic about our chances, but certainly less than I was a week ago.

 

The bright spot is that we might finally have 3 SP'ers we look forward to starting.

 

The dark spot is we have no clue on who to go with for the other 2 slots, and not the pen is starting to crack.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's really been a yo-yo year, and it's hard to get a read on this team. They seem to have energy and grit, but fall so flat, sometimes, that I have to wonder if this will be an ongoing trend.

 

 

Spoken like a fan of a true .500 team...

 

... (but anything over 78 wins is better than last year, and at least it's with a different group, including even some hope for the future).

[Old Red]

It's really been a yo-yo year, and it's hard to get a read on this team. They seem to have energy and grit, but fall so flat, sometimes, that I have to wonder if this will be an ongoing trend.

 

It's interesting that 10 of the 15 AL teams have winning records, while the last WC slot in the NL would go to either MIA or PHI at 20-21.

 

The ALE and ALW both have 4 of 5 teams with winning records.

 

In the NL, 2 divisions have 2 winning teams and the NLE is like the ALC, both having just one winning team.

 

We are a quarter of the way through a long season, and there is plenty of time for teams to make serious moves, in either direction. I'm still optimistic about our chances, but certainly less than I was a week ago.

 

The bright spot is that we might finally have 3 SP'ers we look forward to starting.

 

The dark spot is we have no clue on who to go with for the other 2 slots, and not the pen is starting to crack.

 

Like I tried to explain before is that just because a team has a winning record does not necessarily mean they are a good team, and the Red Sox May be one of those teams, and just because a team has a losing record does not mean they are a bad team like the Cardinals.

[moonslav59]

Spoken like a fan of a true .500 team...

 

... (but anything over 78 wins is better than last year, and at least it's with a different group, including even some hope for the future).

 

I still think we can get to 90.

 

I'm less optimistic than a week ago, but I'm more optimistic than I was before the 8 game win streak.

 

The rotation is starting to take shape. I had wished we'd be further along with the shape-building after a quarter of the season, but we are still close enough to have hopes.

 

The next step is finding starter #4 and maybe fixing the pen by adding Houck to it.

[harmony]

Houston has now passed us in the WC standings. I mentioned a few days ago, how I was in more fear of the two teams behind us (NYY & HOU) than he 2 in front (TOR & BAL), and now we have 2 of those 4 to pass to win a WC slot.

 

+3 BAL

+1 TOR

- NYY

-1.0 HOU

-1.5 BOS

-1.5 LAA

-2.0 SEA

 

Now, we are letting SEA into the mix.

 

It's time to knock them down a notch or two. This is the time we need to win, as the ALE teams are playing each other, a lot, and one will lose on those nights.

FWIW FanGraphs currently gives the Red Sox a 26.9 percent chance and the Seattle Mariners a 28.6 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

A year ago the Mariners came into Fenway Park with a humble 17-21 record and left 17-25 after a four-game Red Sox sweep.

[Maxbialystock]

I still think we can get to 90.

 

I'm less optimistic than a week ago, but I'm more optimistic than I was before the 8 game win streak.

 

The rotation is starting to take shape. I had wished we'd be further along with the shape-building after a quarter of the season, but we are still close enough to have hopes.

 

The next step is finding starter #4 and maybe fixing the pen by adding Houck to it.

 

Timely.

 

The Sox are 22-20, which is better than I expected. The Sox are 4th in MLB in runs scored--with a "no name" lineup--which is fantastic. But the team ERA is now 27th in MLB, definitely a disappointment.

 

The 8 game winning streak ended 9 days ago. Since then, just as you say, the rotation seems to have taken a turn for the better.

 

But the bullpen's wheels have literally come off--signified last night when Reyes took the mound for the 9th inning. Winck got hammered by St Louis. Jansen, our $16M closer, got hammered twice by St Louis. Schreiber hasn't pitched because he's hurt and is probably going on the IL. Brasier is gone. Bleier could be right behind him. Bernardino's ERA for May is 6.14.

 

Assuming Jansen is actually OK, I see two decent relievers for tonight: Martin and Jansen. My guess is Whitlock and Crawford, both of whom can start, will go to the bullpen in an effort to reconstruct one. So will Houck, with Pivetta getting the 5th starting spot after Sale, Paxton, Bello, and Kluber.

 

Finally, the "no name" lineup seems to be struggling: 5 runs total in the last 3 games against the Cardinals and Mariners.

 

To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, "fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy season."

[moonslav59]

Timely.

 

The Sox are 22-20, which is better than I expected. The Sox are 4th in MLB in runs scored--with a "no name" lineup--which is fantastic. But the team ERA is now 27th in MLB, definitely a disappointment.

 

The 8 game winning streak ended 9 days ago. Since then, just as you say, the rotation seems to have taken a turn for the better.

 

But the bullpen's wheels have literally come off--signified last night when Reyes took the mound for the 9th inning. Winck got hammered by St Louis. Jansen, our $16M closer, got hammered twice by St Louis. Schreiber hasn't pitched because he's hurt and is probably going on the IL. Brasier is gone. Bleier could be right behind him. Bernardino's ERA for May is 6.14.

 

Assuming Jansen is actually OK, I see two decent relievers for tonight: Martin and Jansen. My guess is Whitlock and Crawford, both of whom can start, will go to the bullpen in an effort to reconstruct one. So will Houck, with Pivetta getting the 5th starting spot after Sale, Paxton, Bello, and Kluber.

 

Finally, the "no name" lineup seems to be struggling: 5 runs total in the last 3 games against the Cardinals and Mariners.

 

To paraphrase Bette Davis in All About Eve, "fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy season."

 

Not only should the pitching staff improve with Joely, Whitlock and Crawford back, our defense should improve with the return of Story and Mondesi, and our offense can get even better with the return of Story and Duvall. That is assuming no major secondary losses, along the way.

 

We can also add at the deadline, if we are still in it by then. We have some budget space to add salary.

[Maxbialystock]

Not only should the pitching staff improve with Joely, Whitlock and Crawford back, our defense should improve with the return of Story and Mondesi, and our offense can get even better with the return of Story and Duvall. That is assuming no major secondary losses, along the way.

 

We can also add at the deadline, if we are still in it by then. We have some budget space to add salary.

 

Meanwhile, however, there are games to play. Repeating the "bumpy flight" analogy, this team is in a tailspin. They've lost 4 straight and literally have no bullpen worth mentioning. Pivetta starts tonight and, season to date, opposing lineups collective OPS against him in the first time through the lineup is a frightening 1.062. Wednesday Seattle starts Marco Gonzales, a lefty who won his last two starts against Houston and Detroit. We will be sending out Bello, whom I like, but we still won't have a bullpen.

 

Plus right now the hitting seems to be struggling--and it's still the same old defense undercutting the pitching.

[mvp 78]

Meanwhile, however, there are games to play. Repeating the "bumpy flight" analogy, this team is in a tailspin. They've lost 4 straight and literally have no bullpen worth mentioning. Pivetta starts tonight and, season to date, opposing lineups collective OPS against him in the first time through the lineup is a frightening 1.062. Wednesday Seattle starts Marco Gonzales, a lefty who won his last two starts against Houston and Detroit. We will be sending out Bello, whom I like, but we still won't have a bullpen.

 

Plus right now the hitting seems to be struggling--and it's still the same old defense undercutting the pitching.

 

Must have been a Herculean effort.

[moonslav59]

Meanwhile, however, there are games to play. Repeating the "bumpy flight" analogy, this team is in a tailspin. They've lost 4 straight and literally have no bullpen worth mentioning. Pivetta starts tonight and, season to date, opposing lineups collective OPS against him in the first time through the lineup is a frightening 1.062. Wednesday Seattle starts Marco Gonzales, a lefty who won his last two starts against Houston and Detroit. We will be sending out Bello, whom I like, but we still won't have a bullpen.

 

Plus right now the hitting seems to be struggling--and it's still the same old defense undercutting the pitching.

 

You'll never convince me that what happened in the last game, last 2 games or last week just has to continue. If baseball has taught me anything, it is to expect the unexpected.

 

Our pen has been a strength, almost all year. It has sucked, recently and may or may not continue to suck for a few days more, or for the rest of the season.

 

I think our pen will be okay, but who knows?

 

We no longer have Brasier dragging us down, and I am hopeful Joely will be a big bump up from Brasier.

 

When Whitlock and Crawford return, we should see Bleier and Bernardino demoted or DFA'd. That should really help the pen, too.

 

Waiting for Mondesi and Story to improve the D is too long a wait. I hope we are still in it, by the time they return.

 

I think we will be, but certainly, we may not be.

[Maxbialystock]

You'll never convince me that what happened in the last game, last 2 games or last week just has to continue. If baseball has taught me anything, it is to expect the unexpected.

 

Our pen has been a strength, almost all year. It has sucked, recently and may or may not continue to suck for a few days more, or for the rest of the season.

 

I think our pen will be okay, but who knows?

 

We no longer have Brasier dragging us down, and I am hopeful Joely will be a big bump up from Brasier.

 

When Whitlock and Crawford return, we should see Bleier and Bernardino demoted or DFA'd. That should really help the pen, too.

 

Waiting for Mondesi and Story to improve the D is too long a wait. I hope we are still in it, by the time they return.

 

I think we will be, but certainly, we may not be.

 

I love being 22-20, way better than I expected. I agree the rotation now shows promise--especially Sale, Paxton, and Bello.

 

My point is that in the near term this team is hugely vulnerable. Tonight, for example, Seattle should win easily. Bello could do better tomorrow night, but Seattle is going with a lefty and the Sox best hitters are mostly from the left side.

 

Then comes a 9 game trip, May 16-24, to the West Coast against the Padres, Angels, and Diamondbacks, and I do not see the bullpen recovering before that road trip. Dumping Brasier was the right move, but in the near term it doesn't accomplish much because the rest of the bullpen is in disarray.

 

The defense will remain under suspicion. And, while I like the promise of the rotation, these days the stats guys are telling managers to avoid having starters face a lineup a third time. In short, you cannot hope to win without a freaking bullpen. Sale pitched 8 innings and gave up 1 run--and the Jansen lost it in the 9th.

 

There is also the possibility the hit parade might be losing a beat.

[Bellhorn04]

Not only should the pitching staff improve with Joely, Whitlock and Crawford back, our defense should improve with the return of Story and Mondesi, and our offense can get even better with the return of Story and Duvall. That is assuming no major secondary losses, along the way.

 

Unfortunately a shaky assumption. We just lost Schreiber.

[moonslav59]

I love being 22-20, way better than I expected. I agree the rotation now shows promise--especially Sale, Paxton, and Bello.

 

My point is that in the near term this team is hugely vulnerable. Tonight, for example, Seattle should win easily. Bello could do better tomorrow night, but Seattle is going with a lefty and the Sox best hitters are mostly from the left side.

 

Then comes a 9 game trip, May 16-24, to the West Coast against the Padres, Angels, and Diamondbacks, and I do not see the bullpen recovering before that road trip. Dumping Brasier was the right move, but in the near term it doesn't accomplish much because the rest of the bullpen is in disarray.

 

The defense will remain under suspicion. And, while I like the promise of the rotation, these days the stats guys are telling managers to avoid having starters face a lineup a third time. In short, you cannot hope to win without a freaking bullpen. Sale pitched 8 innings and gave up 1 run--and the Jansen lost it in the 9th.

 

There is also the possibility the hit parade might be losing a beat.

 

I'm very concerned about the near future, too. I feel better longer term, due mainly to expected returning, better players.

 

If there is one thing we know about this team is that they often win when we don't expect it (like having a winning record vs >.500 teams) and lose when we think they should win- like vs STL.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm very concerned about the near future, too. I feel better longer term, due mainly to expected returning, better players.

 

If there is one thing we know about this team is that they often win when we don't expect it (like having a winning record vs >.500 teams) and lose when we think they should win- like vs STL.

 

All that plus our run differential makes us the definition of a mediocre team.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately a shaky assumption. We just lost Schreiber.

 

Maybe they should have rested him longer, or put him on the 10 day, a few days back.

 

Lat injuries can be tricky. He is a key to our pen.

 

Maybe Houck can take his slot, as soon as Whitlock or Crawford are called up.

[moonslav59]

All that plus our run differential makes us the definition of a mediocre team.

 

Yes, for the first quarter of the year.

 

All teams have had injuries. Some teams have guys out all year. We may be fortunate to get all ours back.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm very concerned about the near future, too. I feel better longer term, due mainly to expected returning, better players.

 

If there is one thing we know about this team is that they often win when we don't expect it (like having a winning record vs >.500 teams) and lose when we think they should win- like vs STL.

 

I do not disagree with your perspective on near term vs. long term. What makes me nervous is that we have no idea how long it will take for the bullpen to recover. In addition, while I too have been impressed by recent starts by Sale, Paxton, and Bello, I'm not impressed with the latest from Kluber, Houck, and especially Pivetta. Plus we are a month or more from fixing the defensive issues.

 

Nevertheless, you are right that the Sox can surprise us--especially the hitting.

[Maxbialystock]

Maybe they should have rested him longer, or put him on the 10 day, a few days back.

 

Lat injuries can be tricky. He is a key to our pen.

 

Maybe Houck can take his slot, as soon as Whitlock or Crawford are called up.

 

Agree on Houck. I would also put Whitlock in the bullpen and maybe give Crawford a shot at the rotation.

[moonslav59]

I do not disagree with your perspective on near term vs. long term. What makes me nervous is that we have no idea how long it will take for the bullpen to recover. In addition, while I too have been impressed by recent starts by Sale, Paxton, and Bello, I'm not impressed with the latest from Kluber, Houck, and especially Pivetta. Plus we are a month or more from fixing the defensive issues.

 

Nevertheless, you are right that the Sox can surprise us--especially the hitting.

 

The pen could start being fine, tonight. Losing Schreiber hurts, but we still have others that have done well, this year, despite some recent melt-downs.

 

According to one site, Crawford may return by May 19th and Whitlock by the 26th.

 

[moonslav59]

Agree on Houck. I would also put Whitlock in the bullpen and maybe give Crawford a shot at the rotation.

 

I wouldn't mind giving Pivetta (#5) a few more starts and Crawford (#4) a chance to start.

[mvp 78]

Houck is just not a starter. He can't turn a lineup over.

[moonslav59]

Houck is just not a starter. He can't turn a lineup over.

 

Plus, the fact that he's so damn good the first time through, makes the choice so freakin obvious, it's hard to grasp the reasoning for hoping things change.

 

These career numbers are astoundingly great!

 

.453 first PA

 

.440 first 25 pitches

[Old Red]

Houck is just not a starter. He can't turn a lineup over.

 

Just like last year Houck started in the rotation, because of injuries. I don’t think it helps him any to be jerked, back, and forth through.

[mvp 78]

Just like last year Houck started in the rotation, because of injuries. I don’t think it helps him any to be jerked, back, and forth through.

 

Just put him in the pen for good.

[redsoxrules]

Just put him in the pen for good.

 

Along with Whitlock. Whitlock has spent a lot of time on the DL since this experiment of putting him as a starter