A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Maxbialystock]

I don't get swayed by a 2 game O drought.

 

Absolutely true. But a small sample is all we've got.

 

Speaking of which, in 3 of 6 starts to date, Houck, Pivetta, and Klubar were all decent. Whitlock and Bello rejoin soon. Sale could pull a Klubar and allay our concerns. The pitching could be decent this year.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely true. But a small sample is all we've got.

 

Speaking of which, in 3 of 6 starts to date, Houck, Pivetta, and Klubar were all decent. Whitlock and Bello rejoin soon. Sale could pull a Klubar and allay our concerns. The pitching could be decent this year.

 

It is really our only hope.

 

I think the O will be fine.

 

The pen will be fine.

 

The starting pitching needs to be not only good, it needs to be good enough to help cover up the bad D.

[Nick]

Absolutely true. But a small sample is all we've got.

 

Speaking of which, in 3 of 6 starts to date, Houck, Pivetta, and Klubar were all decent. Whitlock and Bello rejoin soon. Sale could pull a Klubar and allay our concerns. The pitching could be decent this year.

 

It would be difficult for me to think as a group, Kluber, Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock and Bello SUCK.

[jacksonianmarch]

They got swept by Pittsburgh. They’re gonna have a rough year

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Big game today in Detroit. The Red Sox are already back in last place in the AL East, with the same 2-4 record as the Tigers. Both clubs have allowed 38 runs so far (second-worst to Oakland's 41), but the striped cats have an AL-worst -20 run differential... the Sox are just -3.

 

This three-game set in Motown better help the Bosox right the ship. After that, they play four vs. the Rays, who haven't lost a MLB game since October in the year 2022.

 

Sale can make a statement as the stopper. His ERA of 21 is better than the opposing pitcher, Turnbull's 27. Boston will win, 27-21.

[Maxbialystock]

Big game today in Detroit. The Red Sox are already back in last place in the AL East, with the same 2-4 record as the Tigers. Both clubs have allowed 38 runs so far (second-worst to Oakland's 41), but the striped cats have an AL-worst -20 run differential... the Sox are just -3.

 

This three-game set in Motown better help the Bosox right the ship. After that, they play four vs. the Rays, who haven't lost a MLB game since October in the year 2022.

 

Sale can make a statement as the stopper. His ERA of 21 is better than the opposing pitcher, Turnbull's 27. Boston will win, 27-21.

 

Nice summary and stats. 6 games in and the Sox need to make a stand.

[Bellhorn04]

6 games in and the Sox need to make a stand.

 

LOL that kind of sums up how much we overreact as fans. I've been doing plenty of overreacting, that's for sure.

[mvp 78]

Paxton is going to minimize bullpen innings?

 

IF he's the good version of Paxton.

[mvp 78]

LOL that kind of sums up how much we overreact as fans. I've been doing plenty of overreacting, that's for sure.

 

Not even the middle of April.

[moonslav59]

They got swept by Pittsburgh. They’re gonna have a rough year

 

We know your position. We'll talk again, later.

[moonslav59]

LOL that kind of sums up how much we overreact as fans. I've been doing plenty of overreacting, that's for sure.

 

Nothing ever changes.

[Bellhorn04]

Nothing ever changes.

 

Truer words never spoken.

[Hugh2]

I don't overreact.

 

Except maybe those few times I overreacted in the past, but we are not going to talk about those times. That's not how I'm remembering this....I don't over react.

[notin]

Cherington’s Pirates have the best record of any team run a current or former Sox executive…

[moonslav59]

Cherington’s Pirates have the best record of any team run a current or former Sox executive…

 

BRING BACK BEN!

 

He's the guy who set it all up for 2018.

[mvp 78]

BRING BACK BEN!

 

He's the guy who set it all up for 2018.

 

I don't know if he could do a Sale or Kimbrel trade. Chaim is doing what Ben did. Need a younger version of Dombo who can be competitive while trying to maintain the farm.

[Hugh2]

Cherington’s Pirates have the best record of any team run a current or former Sox executive…

 

The irony is Ben got a lot of criticism around here, but he by far and large built the team that went on that 2016-2019 run that saw a WS dominant year in 2018. I mean, those teams were heavily Ben, and people to this day still give it to DD......who definitely added the pieces to put that team over the top in 2018. Credit where credit is due. Still, this illustrates how the typical fan has a recency bias. We all do to some extent.

[moonslav59]

I don't know if he could do a Sale or Kimbrel trade. Chaim is doing what Ben did. Need a younger version of Dombo who can be competitive while trying to maintain the farm.

 

I always had the feeling Ben would eventually pull the trigger on a blockbuster prospects for stud trade, but I'm not sure about the Sale deal (maybe Quintana), either. I seriously doubt he'd do the Kimbrel deal.

 

Certainly keeping every prospect looks like the wrong choice, in hindsight.

 

Edited April 6, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The irony is Ben got a lot of criticism around here, but he by far and large built the team that went on that 2016-2019 run that saw a WS dominant year in 2018. I mean, those teams were heavily Ben, and people to this day still give it to DD......who definitely added the pieces to put that team over the top in 2018. Credit where credit is due. Still, this illustrates how the typical fan has a recency bias. We all do to some extent.

 

I totally agree, and while DD does deserve much credit, almost every trade he made involved highly regarded prospects that Ben stockpiled or kept from the Theo era.

 

He also left a fine young core of players in Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Vaz & ERod, plus some vets like Porcello, Napoli, Barnes.

 

DD kept the right prospects in Devers & Beni.

[mvp 78]

The irony is Ben got a lot of criticism around here, but he by far and large built the team that went on that 2016-2019 run that saw a WS dominant year in 2018. I mean, those teams were heavily Ben, and people to this day still give it to DD......who definitely added the pieces to put that team over the top in 2018. Credit where credit is due. Still, this illustrates how the typical fan has a recency bias. We all do to some extent.

 

Do they become so dominant without Price, Sale, Kimbrel and JD? Ben could probably sign JD and Price, but would he be able to do the Sale and Kimbrel deals?

[mvp 78]

I always had the feeling Ben would eventually pull the trigger on a blockbuster prospects for stud trade, but I'm not sure about the Sale deal (maybe Quintana), either. I seriously doubt he'd do the Kimbrel deal.

 

Certainly keeping every prospect looks like the wrong choice, in hindsight.

 

 

I think you need to pick the prospects you want to keep and deal the ones you believe are at the zenith of their value (Houston with Valdez and Abreu?). Don't deal them all, but don't hoard them all either.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Sale can make a statement as the stopper. His ERA of 21 is better than the opposing pitcher, Turnbull's 27. Boston will win, 27-21.

 

I messed up -- 21 and 27 are today's pitchers' earned run averages. But both clubs play crappily on defense... so when all is dead and flung, the final score may be closer to 41-39...

 

... which I also notice adds up to about half a season of games. If 41-39 is the Sox' record by the summer trade deadline, does Bloom get another chance at not holding a firesale?

[mvp 78]

I messed up -- 21 and 27 are today's pitchers' earned run averages. But both clubs play crappily on defense... so when all is dead and flung, the final score may be closer to 41-39...

 

... which I also notice adds up to about half a season of games. If 41-39 is the Sox' record by the summer trade deadline, does Bloom get another chance at not holding a firesale?

 

There are approximately 15 teams in Wild Card contention in each league, so we'll just have to see!

[moonslav59]

I think you need to pick the prospects you want to keep and deal the ones you believe are at the zenith of their value (Houston with Valdez and Abreu?). Don't deal them all, but don't hoard them all either.

 

Agree.

 

As for Valdez & Abreu, I think they were like 8th to 15th on the Astros prospect list, but yes, they had recently moved up.

[Hugh2]

I think you need to pick the prospects you want to keep and deal the ones you believe are at the zenith of their value (Houston with Valdez and Abreu?). Don't deal them all, but don't hoard them all either.

 

I think he could have, but maybe not, we will never know. A lot of times a GM is working under a mandate, DD was a perfect example of this. Despite his reputation, if you go back far enough he was the guy who hoarded prospects, filled up a farm, and didn't make the big blockbuster.

 

Under Henry's direction, or perhaps on his own Ben may have come to the conclusion that it was time to switch direction and add to the MLB team with a big piece. I don't believe in this, but wouldn't be surprised if that's how things went if he had stayed here too. Maybe we never win in 2018, maybe Ben trades for someone else who stays healthy over Sale and the team doesn't get broken up in 2020....who knows.

[moonslav59]

I think he could have, but maybe not, we will never know. A lot of times a GM is working under a mandate, DD was a perfect example of this. Despite his reputation, if you go back far enough he was the guy who hoarded prospects, filled up a farm, and didn't make the big blockbuster.

 

Under Henry's direction, or perhaps on his own Ben may have come to the conclusion that it was time to switch direction and add to the MLB team with a big piece. I don't believe in this, but wouldn't be surprised if that's how things went if he had stayed here too. Maybe we never win in 2018, maybe Ben trades for someone else who stays healthy over Sale and the team doesn't get broken up in 2020....who knows.

 

It's so hard to know what might have happened. One could argue we might still have won in 2018 without Sale.

 

Had we traded for Quintana, instead of Sale, what might have happened?

 

One can even go as deep as to wonder if Espinoza gets hurt had he not been traded?

 

I do think Ben would have made a big trade or two, even if it took him being forced to do so.

 

We'll never know.

 

This whole Bloom era may end up with the same what ifs.

 

He's never made a big prospect for stud trade. His top prospect traded was Aldo Ramirez for Schwarber. Next, might be Groome for Hosmer, Ferguson & Rosier. Contrast this with DD trading about 20 prospects that at one time or another were top 20, and you can see the vast disparity in philosophies or mandates.

[Maxbialystock]

LOL that kind of sums up how much we overreact as fans. I've been doing plenty of overreacting, that's for sure.

 

If you ain't over-reacting, you ain't a real fan, which is short for fanatic, which means obsessed and irrational.

 

Love how the Sox are playing today. Sale had some good innings. Brasier got 3 outs in the 8th with a 3 run lead. Sox scored 6 terrific runs with dingers by Devers and Duvall--so my endless whining about the putrid offense is looking pretty lame, I'm happy to say.

 

With Klubar and Sale both having decent 2d starts, I'd say moonslav's prediction of a decent rotation is looking pretty sensible because we still haven't seen Whitlock and Bello. Bullpen looks OK too. Defense and baserunning abysmal, but not insurmountable.

[moonslav59]

If you ain't over-reacting, you ain't a real fan, which is short for fanatic, which means obsessed and irrational.

 

Love how the Sox are playing today. Sale had some good innings. Brasier got 3 outs in the 8th with a 3 run lead. Sox scored 6 terrific runs with dingers by Devers and Duvall--so my endless whining about the putrid offense is looking pretty lame, I'm happy to say.

 

With Klubar and Sale both having decent 2d starts, I'd say moonslav's prediction of a decent rotation is looking pretty sensible because we still haven't seen Whitlock and Bello. Bullpen looks OK too. Defense and baserunning abysmal, but not insurmountable.

 

Max, you are a true fanatic, but fans can also be obsessed without thinking their team is only as good as they are playing that day or week.

 

I enjoy your posts, and don't want you to change a thing about you, but you do get me shaking my head, from time to time.

 

👌

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Leaders

 

1.621 Brian Anderson

1.578 Adam Duvall

1.478 Will Smith

 

6. Bogey 1.395

8. G Torres 1.349

10. Moncada 1.302

27. Mateo 1.109

44. Betts .990

50. Devers .957

72. Laureano .883

75. Verdugo .875

91. J Abreu .785

97. Turner .758

103. Yoshida .737

110. JD M .715

114. Hosmer .706

129. Kike .649

144. Beni .586

155. Schwarber .539

161. Correa .519

165. Casas .496

173. Arroyo .449

176. Renfroe .426

183. Andrus .382

185. Bregman .380

190. (last) Javier Baez .228

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Top Pen Arms on the Sox

0.00 Martin 4 IP (1.25 WHIP)

0.00 Jansen 2 IP (1.00 WHIP)

1.50 Winckowski 6 IP (0.83 WHIP)

2.25 Schreiber 4.0 IP (2.00 WHIP)

 

Top and Bottom Starters

1.80 Pivetta 5.0 IP (1.20)

5.40 Houck 5.0 IP (1.20)

6.48 Kluber 8.1 IP (1.68)

11.25 Sale 8.0 IP (2.00)

15.75 Crawford 4 IP (2.50)

 

Bottom Pen

1.93 Kelly 4.2 IP (1.71)

6.00 Bleier 3.0 IP (1.67)

6.75 Brasier 4.0 IP (1.40)

7.20 Ort 5.0 IP (1.40)