A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

If it's a big enough contract, $1 million will probably be outweighed by those other considerations.

 

If reports are accurate, Theo closed the deal with Lester by bumping their offer a whopping $20 million higher than the Red Sox best offer.

 

Again if reports are accurate, the Yankees closed the deal with Cole by adding a ninth year at $36 million. Two other teams were willing to go to 8 years at $36 million.

 

Sometimes you really have to beat the crap out of the next best offer to make the player feel truly comfortable they're making the right decision!

 

It's hard to know, if in those examples, less or much less would have still landed the prize.

 

With Bogey, he seems to want to stay in BOS, so I do think $1M more would keep him here.

 

If he doesn't want to stay here, then, I would not want him here, anyway.

[JDavis76]

It's hard to know, if in those examples, less or much less would have still landed the prize.

 

With Bogey, he seems to want to stay in BOS, so I do think $1M more would keep him here.

 

If he doesn't want to stay here, then, I would not want him here, anyway.

 

I have to laugh when people make these statements like they have actually sat down and had a conversation with the player.

 

Bottom line is none of us has any clue what the player is thinking or how they feel

[Bellhorn04]

It's hard to know, if in those examples, less or much less would have still landed the prize.

 

I prefer to think the GM's or HOBO's do not pay extra chunks of money just for the fun of it. But there are probably some cases where they are so anxious to land the player that they throw in some more money to get it done.

[notin]

Some guys do. They're in the minority, but they do exist.

 

Bogaerts did something similar last time. He was one year away from free agency and took a below market deal…

[notin]

I prefer to think the GM's or HOBO's do not pay extra chunks of money just for the fun of it. But there are probably some cases where they are so anxious to land the player that they throw in some more money to get it done.

 

And Corey Seager didn’t mind one bit…

[Bellhorn04]

And Corey Seager didn’t mind one bit…

 

No kidding. That was rather insane.

 

Mind you Seager is a really good player and has bounced back from a bad start.

[moonslav59]

No kidding. That was rather insane.

 

Mind you Seager is a really good player and has bounced back from a bad start.

 

The Seager contract made Correa wide-eyed, and likely got Bogey thinking $150/6 is too low. I can't blame him.

 

It's clear to me, Bogey wants to stay in Boston. BorA$$ has said "he'd sacrifice to stay with the Red Sox," but who knows if that sentiment has changed. https://nesn.com/2021/07/scott-boras-shares-xander-bogaerts-was-willing-to-take-discount-to-stay-with-red-sox/

 

Bogey has also said, "Obviously, I love being here. Everyone knows it. I think that’s pretty clear," he said.

 

Just offer him $150-165/6 and move on, if he says no. Maybe go $175/7, tops, but I'd make sure he knows, he may be changing positions sooner than he may think he should.

[Old Red]

The Seager contract made Correa wide-eyed, and likely got Bogey thinking $150/6 is too low. I can't blame him.

 

It's clear to me, Bogey wants to stay in Boston. BorA$$ has said "he'd sacrifice to stay with the Red Sox," but who knows if that sentiment has changed. https://nesn.com/2021/07/scott-boras-shares-xander-bogaerts-was-willing-to-take-discount-to-stay-with-red-sox/

 

Bogey has also said, "Obviously, I love being here. Everyone knows it. I think that’s pretty clear," he said.

 

Just offer him $150-165/6 and move on, if he says no. Maybe go $175/7, tops, but I'd make sure he knows, he may be changing positions sooner than he may think he should.

I have said all along 6-165. Startnhg at $25M, and ending at $30M, and if not accepted then bye bye, and move on to another SS, or 2B.

[Bellhorn04]

I think we're all in the same neighborhood on Bogey. I think 7/175 or 7/185 should be the ceiling.

[dgalehouse]

The market for Bogaerts may not be as good as you might think. The Dodgers will probably look to re-sign Trea Turner , who is better than Bogey and probably the best in the business. The Mets are happy with Lindor . And the Yanks are counting on their shortstop prospects , and need to spend big on Judge. Those are the big spending teams and they are not likely to go big on Bogaerts. The Sox really need to step up here and take care of business with Xander and Devers.

[Bellhorn04]

The market for Bogaerts may not be as good as you might think. The Dodgers will probably look to re-sign Trea Turner , who is better than Bogey and probably the best in the business. The Mets are happy with Lindor . And the Yanks are counting on their shortstop prospects , and need to spend big on Judge. Those are the big spending teams and they are not likely to go big on Bogaerts. The Sox really need to step up here and take care of business with Xander and Devers.

 

Correa is also almost certain to opt out and hit the market again.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The market for Bogaerts may not be as good as you might think. The Dodgers will probably look to re-sign Trea Turner , who is better than Bogey and probably the best in the business. The Mets are happy with Lindor . And the Yanks are counting on their shortstop prospects , and need to spend big on Judge. Those are the big spending teams and they are not likely to go big on Bogaerts. The Sox really need to step up here and take care of business with Xander and Devers.

 

In the next year there's going to be a lot of disappointed Red Sox fans, indignant media, and Boston interns with aliases lauding new prospects on Talksox.

 

And yet, one of the latter will soon become a borderline star and lead the Sox back to the postseason...

 

... where they'll then live to regret facing X in Houston and Raffy in the Bronx.

[notin]

In the next year there's going to be a lot of disappointed Red Sox fans, indignant media, and Boston interns with aliases lauding new prospects on Talksox.

 

And yet, one of the latter will soon become a borderline star and lead the Sox back to the postseason...

 

... where they'll then live to regret facing X in Houston and Raffy in the Bronx.

 

The Astros are not signing Bogaerts. They seem rather content with Jeremy Pena and have a few arb-eligible pitchers.

 

I agree with dgalehouse in his market may not be as exciting as people expect, especially if he wants to stay at SS. Will the Twins go big at SS again? The Cubs are certainly a possibility. The Angels have too much money tied up elsewhere and really need to make a decision on Ohtani.

 

Certainly an unexpected team can leap into the race. Who had Texas down for Seager and Semien in the MLBTR free agent contest last year? I bet even Seager didn’t.

 

I suppose Baltimore might be ready to spend. Or any team opening a new stadium in 2023. (Is anyone?)

[moonslav59]

I think Bogey signs with DD and Philly.

 

The Dodgers might be another landing spot, if they pass on Turner or convince Bogey to play another position (not likely.)

 

Don't count out the Yanks trying to make a big splash while hurting the Sox PR.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Bogey signs with DD and Philly.

 

The Dodgers might be another landing spot, if they pass on Turner or convince Bogey to play another position (not likely.)

 

Don't count out the Yanks trying to make a big splash while hurting the Sox PR.

 

I never count out the Yankees, but they've got Judge to deal with.

[moonslav59]

I never count out the Yankees, but they've got Judge to deal with.

 

If they lose Judge, Bogey is certainly in play. If they keep Judge, they may still want to hit the Sox where it hurts.

 

They can use their SS prospects at other positions, trade them, of use them to fill in for Bogey, when he changes positions in a couple years or more.

[Nick]

I think we're all in the same neighborhood on Bogey. I think 7/175 or 7/185 should be the ceiling.

 

I agree. Anything $30M and above just feels too much.

[Bellhorn04]

If they lose Judge, Bogey is certainly in play. If they keep Judge, they may still want to hit the Sox where it hurts.

 

I don't know if the Yankees think that way anymore. The Astros, Rays and Jays might be bigger concerns.

[moonslav59]

I don't know if the Yankees think that way anymore. The Astros, Rays and Jays might be bigger concerns.

 

Of course, they would not sign Bogey just to sock the Sox with PR, but it might be a factor that tips the balance, if they are serious, in the first place.

 

Why wouldn't they? Many felt they were going to sign a big SS, last winter. Maybe a playoff loss might give them the incentive to go "all in." I actually hope they do. Then, they will be like us in a few years.

[moonslav59]

I agree. Anything $30M and above just feels too much.

 

He's not worth $30M for anything more than 2-3 years.

[notin]

I think Bogey signs with DD and Philly.

 

The Dodgers might be another landing spot, if they pass on Turner or convince Bogey to play another position (not likely.)

 

Don't count out the Yanks trying to make a big splash while hurting the Sox PR.

 

 

Philly is a possibility as well.

 

Of course one of these teams might prefer the younger Correa…

[moonslav59]

Philly is a possibility as well.

 

Of course one of these teams might prefer the younger Correa…

 

DD extended Bogey.

 

I think he jumps at this chance to bring him to Philly.

 

Correa goes to NYY, after the get eliminated in the playoffs.

 

Turner stays in LA.

 

The Sox end up with Swanson.

 

2020-2022 Defensive Numbers:

UZR/150

4. Story 3.8

8. Bogey 3.2

9. Correa 2.5

16. Turner 1.0

17. Swanson 0.6

21. Gregorius -1.1

23. T Anderson -3.3

 

DRS

1. Correa 29

7. Story 15

10. Swanson 6

18. Anderson -2

23. Turner -7

24. Bogey -9

26. Gregorius -18

 

fWAR 20-22

1. T Turner 13.8

4. Swanson 10.5

5. Bogey 10.5

7. Anderson 9.3

8. Correa 9.2

14. Story 6.9

 

OPS

2. Turner .903

4. Bogey .852

6. Anderson .799

7. Correa .799

10. Story .792

11. Swanson .787

24. Gregorius .670

 

 

[vegasbob]

If i were Bogey, Devers or any other Red Sox FA they wanted to resign, my number would be $1 more than what Chris Sale is getting for his last 2 years on the basis that I am playing and he is not. That excludes Kike.

[moonslav59]

If i were Bogey, Devers or any other Red Sox FA they wanted to resign, my number would be $1 more than what Chris Sale is getting for his last 2 years on the basis that I am playing and he is not. That excludes Kike.

 

Interesting negotiation tactic.

[notin]

If i were Bogey, Devers or any other Red Sox FA they wanted to resign, my number would be $1 more than what Chris Sale is getting for his last 2 years on the basis that I am playing and he is not. That excludes Kike.

 

I don’t think it will work for Matt Strahm…

[Hugh2]

Was at the game last night. Awesome seeing our future right fielder hit one over the monster.

[Hugh2]

Interesting negotiation tactic.

 

That’s not how markets work.

[moonslav59]

That’s not how markets work.

 

Kinda what I was thinking.

[Larry Cook]

Projected 2023 starting lineup:

 

Cf - kirmeirer (free agent signing)

Lf - Pham (resigning)

Ss - turner (free agent signing)

3b - devers

Rf - verdugo

1b - hosmer

2b - story

Dh - cassas

C - McGuire

 

Bench

 

Utility - arroyo

1b/3b/dh - dalbec

C - wong

[Hugh2]

I think you HAVE to sign a better catcher, let wong/McGuire battle for the backup role. Would also love an upgrade over Pham. Also, Casas should start at 1B, let Hosmer DH, or someone else.