A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Hugh2]

!!!!!! Was this post just typed by a fan of a team whose highest-paid player is not just snakebitten, but whose entire body is made out of snake food: rodent nests, frog lilypads, snips and snails and puppy-dog tails...

 

Literally, anybody on the Red Sox could get hit on the wrist and break their wrist tomorrow. Chris Sale, aside from the fluky stuff had an elbow injury that was largely predicable being someone who had a high-stress delivery. I don't consider them comparable.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Two OFs, 2b, C and DH.

 

Internally OF is weak. I’ve suggested Nimmo and trading for Oakland’s Ramon Laureano. I wouldn’t mind both, but what Forst wants for Laureano will forever be a mystery. At least to me.

 

C. Internally we have some intriguing backup types, including McGuire and Wong. They might work out. I’ve suggested a Barnes/McCann bad contract swap. I have faith NYM would do it, but less faith in it making the position a plus.

 

2b is a mystery, unless Bogaerts extends and pushes Story back. Internally the Sox have the fragile Arroyo and the defensively lackluster Enmanuel Valdez. Moving Duran back should be on the table, but probably isn’t.

 

DH. If JD is offered a QO, he might accept. Not so sure I like this, as he simply is not the hitter he was 4 years ago. A cheap solution is a Valdez/Dalbec platoon. And maybe Casas at some point. (Hosmer has some internal value due to his salary, so he might hold 1b for a while.)

 

There are probably a couple questionable contracts the Sox could move on as well, headlined by Jorge Soler.

 

Sign me up for your OF and DH options. As for C, I'm still hopeful Bloom lands a bonafide starter, along the lines of Stallings (who they were in on, last winter). It looks like Bloom values a top defensive catcher, and didn't view Vazquez at that level going forward, which I agree with. My only ish is 2B; I don't see moving Story back to SS, since he, himself, said he's not, and because he looked really good at 2B once he adjusted.

 

Some assets of a good second baseman are soft but sure hands, a quick, accurate arm, deft footwork, and decisive instincts, like knowing when to cut relays or catcher throws and fire back to third or home... or even getting jumps and calling pop-ups down the line between the first base bag and the right fielder.

 

Do any of those qualities read, sound or look like Jarren Duran? I know he played 2B in college, but is it possible one of the reasons he was moved to the outfield was because he was a bad infielder?

[JDavis76]

Literally, anybody on the Red Sox could get hit on the wrist and break their wrist tomorrow. Chris Sale, aside from the fluky stuff had an elbow injury that was largely predicable being someone who had a high-stress delivery. I don't consider them comparable.

 

hang 'em chaim claimed today that somebody has a chris frail voodoo doll....

[notin]

Sign me up for your OF and DH options. As for C, I'm still hopeful Bloom lands a bonafide starter, along the lines of Stallings (who they were in on, last winter). It looks like Bloom values a top defensive catcher, and didn't view Vazquez at that level going forward, which I agree with. My only ish is 2B; I don't see moving Story back to SS, since he, himself, said he's not, and because he looked really good at 2B once he adjusted.

 

Some assets of a good second baseman are soft but sure hands, a quick, accurate arm, deft footwork, and decisive instincts, like knowing when to cut relays or catcher throws and fire back to third or home... or even getting jumps and calling pop-ups down the line between the first base bag and the right fielder.

 

Do any of those qualities read, sound or look like Jarren Duran? I know he played 2B in college, but is it possible one of the reasons he was moved to the outfield was because he was a bad infielder?

 

I’m not wild about McCann, but he’s an option for unloading Barnes.

 

The Speier article talked about Bloom”s deadline pursuit of Sean Murphy, which I’m all for. BTV gives Murphy more trade value than Marcelo Mayer, so while no names were mentioned, I’m guessing talks got pricey.

 

However maybe Arizona’s Carson Kelly is available as he becomes more expensive. The DBacks have shown willingness to use Daulton Varsho at catcher.

 

Another who might get too pricey is Milwaukee’s Omar Navraez. He’s very good.

 

If Story stays at 2b and the Sox cannot retain Bogaerts, that does make for a huge infield hole. Free agency will have Trea Turner and possibly Carlos Correa. Internally I think Jeter Downs or Christian Arroyo are the top options. Bad and therefore available contracts (I’m trying to unload Barnes) would be Nick Ahmed and Paul DeJong. Ahmed for Barnes would be an interesting swap as they were teammates at UConn. But as Ahmed seems to be hurt all the time, I’d prefer DeJong…

Edited August 10, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

I’m not wild about McCann, but he’s an option for unloading Barnes.

 

The Speier article talked about Bloom”s deadline pursuit of Sean Murphy, which I’m all for. BTV gives Murphy more trade value than Marcelo Mayer, so while no names were mentioned, I’m guessing talks got pricey.

 

However maybe Arizona’s Carson Kelly is available as he becomes more expensive. The DBacks have shown willingness to use Daulton Varsho at catcher.

 

Another who might get too pricey is Milwaukee’s Omar Navraez. He’s very good.

 

If Story stays at 2b and the Sox cannot retain Bogaerts, that does make for a huge infield hole. Free agency will have Trea Turner and possibly Carlos Correa. Internally I think Jeter Downs or Christian Arroyo are the top options. Bad and therefore available contracts (I’m trying to unload Barnes) would be Nick Ahmed and Paul DeJong. Ahmed for Barnes would be an interesting swap as they were teammates at UConn. But as Ahmed seems to be hurt all the time, I’d prefer DeJong…

 

No Swanson?

[Old Red]

I’m not wild about McCann, but he’s an option for unloading Barnes.

 

The Speier article talked about Bloom”s deadline pursuit of Sean Murphy, which I’m all for. BTV gives Murphy more trade value than Marcelo Mayer, so while no names were mentioned, I’m guessing talks got pricey.

 

However maybe Arizona’s Carson Kelly is available as he becomes more expensive. The DBacks have shown willingness to use Daulton Varsho at catcher.

 

Another who might get too pricey is Milwaukee’s Omar Navraez. He’s very good.

 

If Story stays at 2b and the Sox cannot retain Bogaerts, that does make for a huge infield hole. Free agency will have Trea Turner and possibly Carlos Correa. Internally I think Jeter Downs or Christian Arroyo are the top options…

 

You really think JH is going to shell out big money for Correa, or Turner? Not to mention Raffy. Arroyo is injury prone, and why mention Jeter Downs as a possibility for anything? It’s just like some keep mentioning Duran as a possibility for something. Neither are a option for anything let alone a top option.

[Elktonnick]

I’m not wild about McCann, but he’s an option for unloading Barnes.

 

The Speier article talked about Bloom”s deadline pursuit of Sean Murphy, which I’m all for. BTV gives Murphy more trade value than Marcelo Mayer, so while no names were mentioned, I’m guessing talks got pricey.

 

However maybe Arizona’s Carson Kelly is available as he becomes more expensive. The DBacks have shown willingness to use Daulton Varsho at catcher.

 

Another who might get too pricey is Milwaukee’s Omar Navraez. He’s very good.

 

If Story stays at 2b and the Sox cannot retain Bogaerts, that does make for a huge infield hole. Free agency will have Trea Turner and possibly Carlos Correa. Internally I think Jeter Downs or Christian Arroyo are the top options. Bad and therefore available contracts (I’m trying to unload Barnes) would be Nick Ahmed and Paul DeJong. Ahmed for Barnes would be an interesting swap as they were teammates at UConn. But as Ahmed seems to be hurt all the time, I’d prefer DeJong…

Jeter Downs is not ready to be a regular major leaguer. He needs another couple hundred ABs in Worcester. Because of injuries the Sox are bringing guys up too soon.

[moonslav59]

Murphy 57.8 for...

 

Mayer 55.4 & Seabold 2.9 (The A's might take this one: I hope Bloom would not.)

 

Casas 39.7 & Yorke 21.2 (I would)

 

Casas 39.7, Rafaela 15.1 & Lugo 5.6 (I probably would)

 

Yorke, Rafaela, Duran 13.5, Lugo & Gonzalez 5.4 (Yes!)

 

Bello 28.8, Yorke 21.2 & Duran 13.5 (Yes)

[Larry Cook]

Jeter Downs is not ready to be a regular major leaguer. He needs another couple hundred ABs in Worcester. Because of injuries the Sox are bringing guys up too soon.

 

Downs is a strike out machine. It is going to take more than a few hundred at bats for him to learn to make consistent contact.

[Old Red]

Downs is a strike out machine. It is going to take more than a few hundred at bats for him to learn to make consistent contact.

 

Two years at Worcester, and he’s hit about 180 combined along with all the K’s, and yet posters on here still talk about him like he is a prized prospect. Hype does not match results.

[oldtimer]

Our proven hitters in the lineup who may still be on the roster in 2023 are Devers, Bogaerts, Verdugo, Story, Hosmer and Arroyo. With Bogaerts a question mark for 2023 and Arroyo is best in a utility role since he has an injury history. Casas is unproven but may prove to be acceptable at first and Refsnyder in a utility OF role. Is Pham in our long term plans? I doubt it. That is a decent start but we need viable hitters up and down the lineup to offer protection to our better hitters or else they won't see many pitches to hit. Guys like Dalbec, Duran, Plawecki, Jeter and Cordero were mainly easy outs and didn't much offer lineup protection. To improve our lineup, we need two OFs, a front line catcher and possibly a SS/2nd. That's assuming Casas displays ML ability and Hosmer can handle the DH role.A lot to ask when we need starting pitching and BP help.

[Larry Cook]

2023 lineup

 

ss - turner (free agent signing)

Lf - Pham (resign)

3b - devers

Rf - verdugo

2b - story

1b - cassas

Dh - dalbec

Cf - kermierer (free agent signing)

C - McGuire

 

Bench

 

C - wong

Of - Duran

Utility - arroyo

[moonslav59]

2023 lineup

 

ss - turner (free agent signing)

Lf - Pham (resign)

3b - devers

Rf - verdugo

2b - story

1b - cassas

Dh - dalbec

Cf - kermierer (free agent signing)

C - McGuire

 

Bench

 

C - wong

Of - Duran

Utility - arroyo

 

I used to like Kiermaier, mostly for his defense, but the guys reeks of being the next JBJ.

 

.678 OPS since 2018.

 

Plus, he's hurt all the time.

 

I don't think only one major addition to the everyday roster is going to do the trick.

 

We lose Bogey and JD but add just one quality player?

 

I think we need at least 2 or maybe 3 solid second tier guys.

 

I'd be happy with 3 from:

 

SS: Swanson or Anderson or 2B: Kike

OF: Nimmo, Haniger or Kike

C: Narvaez

1B: Abreu

[Hugh2]

Why trade for a catcher when there are viable free agent options that won’t break the bank??? If we are unloading top prospects, I think it should be for a front line starter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Another who might get too pricey is Milwaukee’s Omar Navraez. He’s very good.

 

If Story stays at 2b and the Sox cannot retain Bogaerts, that does make for a huge infield hole. Free agency will have Trea Turner and possibly Carlos Correa. Internally I think Jeter Downs or Christian Arroyo are the top options. Bad and therefore available contracts (I’m trying to unload Barnes) would be Nick Ahmed and Paul DeJong. Ahmed for Barnes would be an interesting swap as they were teammates at UConn. But as Ahmed seems to be hurt all the time, I’d prefer DeJong…

 

Ahmed is the kind of placeholder shortstop a team needs when rebuilding towards respectability: good glove (two-time GG), inexpensive, and veteran presence -- maybe he could even guide some of the youngsters on how to conduct themselves with professionalism.

 

Omar Navarro should be easier to acquire now that Ozark has finished its final season.

[Bellhorn04]

Two years at Worcester, and he’s hit about 180 combined along with all the K’s, and yet posters on here still talk about him like he is a prized prospect.

 

No they don't.

[JDavis76]

No they don't.

 

He doesn't have much going for him aside for a cool first name.....

[Hugh2]

Kiermaier is still a plus defender, but not as elite as he once was, at 32 do we think he will lose a step and get worse? or get better? He might be better suited for RF in a year or two, which is fine...except that's going to put more pressure on his bat which has been extremely pedestrian for years. His highest OPS in the past 6 years has been .716

 

I want this team to compete and put together a championship team, I understand you can't have stars at every position, so I'm fine with a guy like Kiermaier in CF but I want star power elsewhere, signing at least one of the star SS's and Catchers. McGuire/Wong will make a good #2 catcher but I need to see a Vasquez or a Contreras as the starting catcher. I've been vocal about bringing Judge on too but I'd be happy stopping short of him and investing in some pitching, but I was also hoping we'd start to use some of our assets to acquire some young cost-controlled pitching. There are some intriguing arms on the FA market this offseason but they all come with huge question marks. And we all know how that can go, it could end up being an amazing return or a complete waste of money. Still there are some intriguing options for guys who would make a good number two as well. Some names available. Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Clayton Kershaw, Carlson Rodon, Jacob Degrom, and more. Not sure I want to touch Justin Verlander 40 year old arm. I think we realistically need to unload a guy and add two starters to strengthen the rotation.

[JDavis76]

Kiermaier is still a plus defender, but not as elite as he once was, at 32 do we think he will lose a step and get worse? or get better? He might be better suited for RF in a year or two, which is fine...except that's going to put more pressure on his bat which has been extremely pedestrian for years. His highest OPS in the past 6 years has been .716

 

I want this team to compete and put together a championship team, I understand you can't have stars at every position, so I'm fine with a guy like Kiermaier in CF but I want star power elsewhere, signing at least one of the star SS's and Catchers. McGuire/Wong will make a good #2 catcher but I need to see a Vasquez or a Contreras as the starting catcher. I've been vocal about bringing Judge on too but I'd be happy stopping short of him and investing in some pitching, but I was also hoping we'd start to use some of our assets to acquire some young cost-controlled pitching. There are some intriguing arms on the FA market this offseason but they all come with huge question marks. And we all know how that can go, it could end up being an amazing return or a complete waste of money. Still there are some intriguing options for guys who would make a good number two as well. Some names available. Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Clayton Kershaw, Carlson Rodon, Jacob Degrom, and more. Not sure I want to touch Justin Verlander 40 year old arm. I think we realistically need to unload a guy and add two starters to strengthen the rotation.

 

Who's the #1??!!

[Hugh2]

Who's the #1??!!

 

HA, I take that as a statement as much of a question. Sale if he's healthy, but who the hell knows. Regardless, this is why you need another TOTRS, a good championship team usually has two guys at the top anyways. It's tough to beat you when you can throw two aces 4 times in a 7 game series.

[JDavis76]

HA, I take that as a statement as much of a question. Sale if he's healthy, but who the hell knows. Regardless, this is why you need another TOTRS, a good championship team usually has two guys at the top anyways. It's tough to beat you when you can throw two aces 4 times in a 7 game series.

 

LOL, chris frail has not been a #1 starter in years.....

[oldtimer]

2023 lineup

 

ss - turner (free agent signing)

Lf - Pham (resign)

3b - devers

Rf - verdugo

2b - story

1b - cassas

Dh - dalbec

Cf - kermierer (free agent signing)

C - McGuire

 

Bench

 

C - wong

Of - Duran

Utility - arroyo

 

If Bogey goes, and that is likely, Turner would be excellent as would Swanson

 

Maybe Pham could stick in left for a year or two (bridge to next prospect)

 

Devers, Verdugo and Story are reasonable.

 

Casas is worth a long look. I would keep Hosmer as insurance at first and he is inexpensive and is a legitimate DH candidate.

 

To me Dalbec is not a good enough hitter for DH and is stiff in the field. I would send him down or trade him for prospects.

 

We do need a CF. I don't believe Keirmerer is the right choice. We may be able to get someone who can field and hit at a better rate for secondary money.

 

We do need a better catcher than McGuire who would be okay in a backup role. Vazquez will be difficult to replace.

 

Bench:

 

I would go with Arroyo, although if healthy he is starter quality.

For catcher either McGuire or Wong. Neither are ML quality hitters but both are decent defenders.

For utility OF, I would go with Refsnyder. Right hand hitter and better defender than Duran who I would look to trade.

[moonslav59]

Why trade for a catcher when there are viable free agent options that won’t break the bank??? If we are unloading top prospects, I think it should be for a front line starter.

 

It might take more and better prospects to get a frontline SP'er, but sure, I like that idea, too.

 

I do NOT think we can fill all the holes that need serious help via free agency, unless JH decides to go way over the tax line and face year 2 level taxes. I'm thinking we can and should trade for at least one slot, without seriously hurting the farm. We will also likely fill 1 or 2 slots from within the system, in hopes it can fill the gap, at least until the deadline.

 

Which of these slots are most likely to be filled from within the system?

 

I placed the ones I think Bloom will fill from within at the top, and the ones we almost certainly will add help at the bottom.

LF: Pham/Dugo (RF)/Duran/Cordero/Granberg/Abreu

Pen Depth: (See SP 5/6/7 list) Taylor/Davis/German/Sawamura/Danish/Brasier/Barnes

Closer: Houck/Whitlock

Set-up: Whitlock/Houck/Schreiber/Taylor/German

SP5/6/7: Winckowski/Bello/Mata/Crawford/Seabold/Murphy/Ward/Walter

1B: Hosmer/Casas/ Dalbec (Kavadas)

RF: Verdugo/Refsnyder/Cordero

C: McGuire, Wong/RHern (Cottam)

SP1/2: Sale/Paxton/Pivetta/Whitlock

2B/SS (wichever Story does not play): Arroyo/Valdez/Koss/Downs/Lugo/Sanchez/Hamilton

CF: Jaylin Davis (I don't see Duran or Dugo as a CF option, except in an emergency)/Rafaela

 

In other words, the big 5 are:

 

1. CF

2. 2B/SS

3. SP

4. C

5. RF

 

One can easily argue finding an ace is #1, and I would not counter.

[JDavis76]

If Bogey goes, and that is likely, Turner would be excellent as would Swanson

 

Maybe Pham could stick in left for a year or two (bridge to next prospect)

 

Devers, Verdugo and Story are reasonable.

 

Casas is worth a long look. I would keep Hosmer as insurance at first and he is inexpensive and is a legitimate DH candidate.

 

To me Dalbec is not a good enough hitter for DH and is stiff in the field. I would send him down or trade him for prospects.

 

We do need a CF. I don't believe Keirmerer is the right choice. We may be able to get someone who can field and hit at a better rate for secondary money.

 

We do need a better catcher than McGuire who would be okay in a backup role. Vazquez will be difficult to replace.

 

Bench:

 

I would go with Arroyo, although if healthy he is starter quality.

For catcher either McGuire or Wong. Neither are ML quality hitters but both are decent defenders.

For utility OF, I would go with Refsnyder. Right hand hitter and better defender than Duran who I would look to trade.

 

turner is going to be pretty expensive.

 

With devers' contract on the horizon and story's present contract, are the sox going to commit that much money to the infield?

[moonslav59]

No they don't.

 

He's currently 23rd on soxprospects.com, and might fall out of the top 30 by opening day 2023.

 

Some team might still want him as a throw-in, which would help us clear a 40 man roster slot for someone more promising (Rule 5 or an outside addition.)

 

Enmanuel Valdez and Wilyer Abreu are both Rule 5 eligible and may be added to the list of protectees, which include:

 

Casas

German

Rafaela

W Gonzalez

Murphy

B Walter

Paulino

 

Maybe:

T Ward

D Granberg

K Cottam

C Koss

N Song

J Thompson

G Jimenez

J Wallace

D Hamilton

V Santos

D Feltman

N Northcut

A Bastardo

 

[Old Red]

No they don't.

 

Go back, and see how many posters have posted Downs being a possibility with the Sox next year along with Duran.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Old Red

[harmony]

hang 'em chaim claimed today that somebody has a chris frail voodoo doll....

The same day this poster witnessed Aaron Judge homer in another Yankee loss.

 

Exciting game.

[notin]

No Swanson?

 

Nope.

 

Bogaerts. I’m all on board with him although I am not sure the team is.

 

If the Sox signed Correa or Turner, if be excited as both are talented players. But part of me would miss X…

[Bellhorn04]

Go back, and see how many posters have posted Downs being a possibility with the Sox next year along with Duran.

 

A possibility, yes. A prized prospect, no.

[JDavis76]

The same day this poster witnessed Aaron Judge homer in another Yankee loss.

 

Exciting game.

 

No doubt the Yanks are struggling right now. But Judge has certainly homered in plenty of Yankee wins as well.

 

Not exactly sure what that has to do with bloom or frail though.....