A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

It would be kind of funny if Bloom and Dombrowski both go after Syndergaard and Robertson this offseason.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It would be kind of funny if Bloom and Dombrowski both go after Syndergaard and Robertson this offseason.

 

It's hilarious imagining if Bloom targets a Thor and has to ask Henry permission to outbid Dombro...

 

What would ownership do? Can John, Linda and Tom combined beat Lebron in an arm wrestle?

[oldtimer]

Slight change in subject. I see the Atlanta Braves has brought up two 21 year old players to their 40 man roster and these guys are playing. The two are Vaughn Grissom and Michael Harris II. I wonder why it takes our prospects so long to get to the bigs. Is it because we don't draft high enough, develop players fast enough or we have a bias that says kids need 5 years in the minors to make it to the bigs? Devers is the last younger prospect that we brought up and Casas remains in AAA. We hear we are developing a strong farm. Let's see some results.

[Hugh2]

Why not start 2023 with Hosmer and Dalbec platooning at first. When Casas is ready, move the Hosmer/Dalbec tandem to DH. That's two positions covered at little dough, leaving room to spend on other needs.

 

I think that’s what they do, not the worse way to start off the season. But by the time Casas comes to town it seems like a pretty big waste to hold two roster spots open for DHs who can only really play 1B and barely hit.

 

I think the start off the year this way but by mid season next year one of those three are gone.

[dgalehouse]

Slight change in subject. I see the Atlanta Braves has brought up two 21 year old players to their 40 man roster and these guys are playing. The two are Vaughn Grissom and Michael Harris II. I wonder why it takes our prospects so long to get to the bigs. Is it because we don't draft high enough, develop players fast enough or we have a bias that says kids need 5 years in the minors to make it to the bigs? Devers is the last younger prospect that we brought up and Casas remains in AAA. We hear we are developing a strong farm. Let's see some results.

 

I don't know the answer , but if you are drafting high school players , it would probably take longer .

[moonslav59]

I think that’s what they do, not the worse way to start off the season. But by the time Casas comes to town it seems like a pretty big waste to hold two roster spots open for DHs who can only really play 1B and barely hit.

 

I think the start off the year this way but by mid season next year one of those three are gone.

 

Sounds about right, unless all three are hitting well.

[moonslav59]

Slight change in subject. I see the Atlanta Braves has brought up two 21 year old players to their 40 man roster and these guys are playing. The two are Vaughn Grissom and Michael Harris II. I wonder why it takes our prospects so long to get to the bigs. Is it because we don't draft high enough, develop players fast enough or we have a bias that says kids need 5 years in the minors to make it to the bigs? Devers is the last younger prospect that we brought up and Casas remains in AAA. We hear we are developing a strong farm. Let's see some results.

 

We have brought up Whitlock (a prospect but not really ours), Houck, Wink, Crawford, Wong, Ja Davis, who have mostly done well, and guys like Bello, Seabold and a couple others who have not done all that well, so far.

[notin]

Slight change in subject. I see the Atlanta Braves has brought up two 21 year old players to their 40 man roster and these guys are playing. The two are Vaughn Grissom and Michael Harris II. I wonder why it takes our prospects so long to get to the bigs. Is it because we don't draft high enough, develop players fast enough or we have a bias that says kids need 5 years in the minors to make it to the bigs? Devers is the last younger prospect that we brought up and Casas remains in AAA. We hear we are developing a strong farm. Let's see some results.

 

 

There are 29 other teams out there, and yes, at least one will put out younger players.

 

I’ve never heard of any 5 year minimum rule, but I could certainly see a player taking that long.

 

Harris and Grissom were both drafted in 2019. No one from the Sox 2019 draft class has made MLB and with the possible e exception of Noah Song none of them ever may make it. But Duran (drafted in 2018) that much different of a story?

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox were all set to call up Casas, but he got hurt at exactly the wrong time.

 

Wasn't Devers called up after about 3 years in the minors?

[Larry Cook]

We have traditionally not rushed prospects to the majors.

 

We have a process and each prospect has to complete certain personalized objectives in order to get promoted to the next level. (Injuries aside that is)

 

Previously this had worked really well with position and bullpen players. But been really bad with starters.

 

Hang’em Chaim has over the past three drafts shown a propensity for drafting two types of prep players, huge contact guys and power guys.

 

I expect us to continue to with our plan and three years from now, we should start to regularly graduate quality prospects.

[sk7326]

I think the Sox were all set to call up Casas, but he got hurt at exactly the wrong time.

 

Wasn't Devers called up after about 3 years in the minors?

 

Yeah - though the resume was deeper. Crushed AA and spent almost no time in AAA

[sk7326]

We have traditionally not rushed prospects to the majors.

 

We have a process and each prospect has to complete certain personalized objectives in order to get promoted to the next level. (Injuries aside that is)

 

Previously this had worked really well with position and bullpen players. But been really bad with starters.

 

Hang’em Chaim has over the past three drafts shown a propensity for drafting two types of prep players, huge contact guys and power guys.

 

I expect us to continue to with our plan and three years from now, we should start to regularly graduate quality prospects.

 

Both Benintendi and Devers were effectively called up from AA. That said, that has not happened recently - but the prospects have not been that good either.

[moonslav59]

Both Benintendi and Devers were effectively called up from AA. That said, that has not happened recently - but the prospects have not been that good either.

 

It will be interesting to see how long Mayer takes.

 

One guy I find interesting is Rafaela. I know he broke into the minors at 17, but the guy can field and has hit pretty well at every level- a little slow to start, but was just promoted to AA, this year- his 6th season with the Sox, counting the lost 2020 season.

 

Gotta think he gets a ST'ing invite after he gets protected from Rule 5.

[Larry Cook]

It will be interesting to see how long Mayer takes.

 

One guy I find interesting is Rafaela. I know he broke into the minors at 17, but the guy can field and has hit pretty well at every level- a little slow to start, but was just promoted to AA, this year- his 6th season with the Sox, counting the lost 2020 season.

 

Gotta think he gets a ST'ing invite after he gets protected from Rule 5.

 

Rafeala is just about the only plus defender is our minor league system. His k rate and walk rate will determine a lot about his future.

[moonslav59]

We hear a lot about how long we have to wait to start seeing the fruits of farm building. Here is soxprospects.com's estimated times of arrival for our top and notable prospects:

 

2022

3. Bello

9. Winckowski

12. Seabold

17. Wong

 

2023

2. Casas

6. Mata

7. Walter

11. Murphy

16. E Valdez

30. F German

 

2024

1. Mayer

4. Yorke

8. Rafaela

15. Ward

21. Lugo

26. W Abreu

28. Binelas

29. Jimenez

 

2025>

5. Bleis

10. Romero

13. Paulino

14. Anthony

18, Jordan

19. Gonzalez

20. Coffey

22. Hickey

25. Kavadas

24. Perales

27. Bonaci

 

The list looks nicely balanced, assuming our top prospects amount to something special, and we have a lot of interesting talent becoming ML ready by the end of 2023. We also have some very talented players about to be added to the 40 for Rule 5.

 

10 players- should be ready by 2023 or were already called up. Plus, there is no Noah Song or RHern on this top 30 list- both might contribute, someday.

 

[moonslav59]

Rafeala is just about the only plus defender is our minor league system. His k rate and walk rate will determine a lot about his future.

 

Jimenez, too, but he may never sniff a ML bench.

 

Mayer appears to be a plus.

[Larry Cook]

Jimenez, too, but he may never sniff a ML bench.

 

Mayer appears to be a plus.

 

So 3 guys out of 7 minor league teams?

 

I guess that is still better odds than winning the powerball!

[moonslav59]

So 3 guys out of 7 minor league teams?

 

I guess that is still better odds than winning the powerball!

 

3 out of our top 30 prospects, of which 10 are pitchers, so maybe 3 out of 20?

 

Bleis might be plus. Casas is close to avg/plus. Wong looks good. Maybe that number is closer to 5 or 6 out of 20.

 

I heard Enmanuel Valdez is a whiz on defense at DH.

[sk7326]

It will be interesting to see how long Mayer takes.

 

One guy I find interesting is Rafaela. I know he broke into the minors at 17, but the guy can field and has hit pretty well at every level- a little slow to start, but was just promoted to AA, this year- his 6th season with the Sox, counting the lost 2020 season.

 

Gotta think he gets a ST'ing invite after he gets protected from Rule 5.

 

We'll see - for the most part the prospects make these decisions for the organization. Mayer has been very good at Greenville - I'd bet 2024 myself but second half of next season is not crazy

[moonslav59]

We'll see - for the most part the prospects make these decisions for the organization. Mayer has been very good at Greenville - I'd bet 2024 myself but second half of next season is not crazy

 

soxprospects says "late 2024," but I think earlier is entirely possible.

[Old Red]

According to Buster Olney the Red Sox are preparing to offer Raffy a contract he can’t refuse. Of course what the Red Sox think is to good to refuse Raffy may think different. Can’t wait to see what happens.

[Elktonnick]

According to Buster Olney the Red Sox are preparing to offer Raffy a contract he can’t refuse. Of course what the Red Sox think is to good to refuse Raffy may think different. Can’t wait to see what happens.

 

Luca Brasi is going to make him an offer he can't refuse.

[Old Red]

Luca Brasi is going to make him an offer he can't refuse.

 

Could JH surprise us?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The wretched refuse of your teaming... sure. Give us Liberty to celebrate all things Raffy.

 

Sincerely, Someone who remembers when Riff Raff was a wolf gangster villain on Underdog

[Hugh2]

We'll see - for the most part the prospects make these decisions for the organization. Mayer has been very good at Greenville - I'd bet 2024 myself but second half of next season is not crazy

 

It's not crazy, but it's highly unlikley. If it happens we should all be very excited about him but the Red Sox shouldn't plan on him being ready until late 2024 or the beginning of 2025.

 

Everyone....it's time to get on the Miguel Bleis train. He's a few years away, but he's the first true 5 tool ceiling prospect the Sox have had in a long time. If everything breaks right for this kid he's going to be the next international stud.

[sk7326]

It's not crazy, but it's highly unlikley. If it happens we should all be very excited about him but the Red Sox shouldn't plan on him being ready until late 2024 or the beginning of 2025.

 

Everyone....it's time to get on the Miguel Bleis train. He's a few years away, but he's the first true 5 tool ceiling prospect the Sox have had in a long time. If everything breaks right for this kid he's going to be the next international stud.

 

Yeah - you look at how he has performed and he and Mayer are the clear bets for the next generation of Sox stars in the system.

[Hugh2]

Yeah - you look at how he has performed and he and Mayer are the clear bets for the next generation of Sox stars in the system.

 

Soxprospects slapped an 8 grade on him. I don't remember the last time they ever put that on an international prospect. If it wasn't Moncada then I believe it was Bogaerts.

[oldtimer]

With Mayer probable for 2024 and Bogaerts potentially leaving, what is the smart move for the Sox to make going forward? Here are 4 possibilities.

 

1. Keep Bogaerts and play him at short in 2023 with and eye to using him at 2nd/DH going forward. Keep Story at 2nd in 2023 and look to trade him in 2024.

 

2. Switch Story to SS with Bogaerts leaving and play Arroyo at 2nd in 2023. Plan on moving Story back to 2nd when Mayer makes the jump and Arroyo to utility.

 

3. Go big by signing Trea Turner for short with Bogaerts leaving, Story at 2nd and Arroyo utility. Trade Story when Mayer comes up. Turner wants to return to the East coast.

 

4. Bring Mayer up in 2023 instead and get him on the job training assuming Bogaerts leaves. Story at 2nd AND Arroyo utility.

 

My option #1 is workable provided Bogaerts is willing to go in that direction. It would be costly since Bogey would want a 6 year contract.

 

My option 2 is least costly and leaves room to spend money in other areas such as SP, Closer, CF and Catcher.

 

My option 3 is also expensive but would give us a terrific defensive capability up the middle will spend and hitting at short. It would create another problem with Mayer arriving in 2024

 

My option 4 is high risk as Mayer might need another year. It is low cost and leaves the freedom to spend in other areas.

[Larry Cook]

With Mayer probable for 2024 and Bogaerts potentially leaving, what is the smart move for the Sox to make going forward? Here are 4 possibilities.

 

1. Keep Bogaerts and play him at short in 2023 with and eye to using him at 2nd/DH going forward. Keep Story at 2nd in 2023 and look to trade him in 2024.

 

2. Switch Story to SS with Bogaerts leaving and play Arroyo at 2nd in 2023. Plan on moving Story back to 2nd when Mayer makes the jump and Arroyo to utility.

 

3. Go big by signing Trea Turner for short with Bogaerts leaving, Story at 2nd and Arroyo utility. Trade Story when Mayer comes up. Turner wants to return to the East coast.

 

4. Bring Mayer up in 2023 instead and get him on the job training assuming Bogaerts leaves. Story at 2nd AND Arroyo utility.

 

My option #1 is workable provided Bogaerts is willing to go in that direction. It would be costly since Bogey would want a 6 year contract.

 

My option 2 is least costly and leaves room to spend money in other areas such as SP, Closer, CF and Catcher.

 

My option 3 is also expensive but would give us a terrific defensive capability up the middle will spend and hitting at short. It would create another problem with Mayer arriving in 2024

 

My option 4 is high risk as Mayer might need another year. It is low cost and leaves the freedom to spend in other areas.

 

Option #3 is the most logical path.

1.) turner is decent defense. Bogey not so much.

2.) turner is slightly better offense.

3.) there is no guarantee that Mayer makes it to the majors. Or he could be used as part of a trade package.

4.) once bogey opts out, we got a ton of money coming off the books!

[Hugh2]

Turners value is highly tied into his speed, or at least much more than Bogaerts. As they're both roughly the same age, I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest Turner will decline faster than Bogaerts. Id' place my betts on Bogaerts being a better hitter in his 30's than Turner. Boagerts has also arguably been as good as Turner defensively this year, maybe even better.

 

I also think it's HIGHLY probable that Turner isn't leaving LA, I don't think LA lets him walk and I doubt he comes here over there unless we offer much more, that ton of money coming off the books goes right back on plus another 10-15 million per year when you sign Turner.

 

Also Bogaerts averages 3.87 OWar per year vs. Turner 3.45. Not much of a difference, but I think the argument could be made that Bogaerts is slightly better offensively, proven vs. AL. East pitching, and has a profile that I believe ages better. I'd take Bogaerts over Turner, and I think he will bet a little cheaper too.

Edited August 15, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh