A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

I’m all for resigning Bogey, and Raffy, but only at a good price. There is cash coming off the books, but there are plenty of holes to fill too that needs more than bargain basement pickups.

 

Devers and Bogaerts are the foundation. Start there and build up.

 

The Sox are only committed for $88 mill next year (not counting Bogaerts) before arbitration raises and can fill holes multiple ways…

[notin]

Probably.

 

And that’s a reduction in pay for JD (in terms of AAV)…

[notin]

I’m all for resigning Bogey, and Raffy, but only at a good price. There is cash coming off the books, but there are plenty of holes to fill too that needs more than bargain basement pickups.

 

I’m assuming $150/6 for Bogaerts, $270/9 for Devers.

 

$55mill in AAV total, bringing the team to $143mill. Is this unreasonable?

[Old Red]

I’m assuming $150/6 for Bogaerts, $270/9 for Devers.

 

$55mill in AAV total, bringing the team to $143mill. Is this unreasonable?

 

After what Riley got from the Braves I’m not sure the Red Sox will go that high for Raffy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m assuming $150/6 for Bogaerts, $270/9 for Devers.

 

$55mill in AAV total, bringing the team to $143mill. Is this unreasonable?

 

Millions of fans, ballplayers, agents, and even a few GMs and team owners would say no.

 

But ultimately, only two opinions really matter (and I wish their titles began with Mr. and Mrs., but they don't).

[JDavis76]

I’m assuming $150/6 for Bogaerts, $270/9 for Devers.

 

$55mill in AAV total, bringing the team to $143mill. Is this unreasonable?

 

Combine that with chris frail ($27.5M) & trevor story ($20M+), do you believe the sox are going to commit almost $104M to just 4 players?

[moonslav59]

I’m assuming $150/6 for Bogaerts, $270/9 for Devers.

 

$55mill in AAV total, bringing the team to $143mill. Is this unreasonable?

 

I don't think Bogey takes $150M/6... maybe more like $180/7.

 

I have no idea what Devers would take, this winter.

[notin]

After what Riley got from the Braves I’m not sure the Red Sox will go that high for Raffy.

 

They already offered Raffy the $21mill AAV and got rejected. They’re going to have to up it by quite a bit.

 

I am sure abloom got some leeway based on the situation he walked into and whatever his goals are, but at some point, he will need a winner.

 

And keeping Devers (or equivalent) is essential, and his farm should at some point make Devers more affordable by supplying minimum wage talent…

[Old Red]

They already offered Raffy the $21mill AAV and got rejected. They’re going to have to up it by quite a bit.

 

I am sure abloom got some leeway based on the situation he walked into and whatever his goals are, but at some point, he will need a winner.

 

And keeping Devers (or equivalent) is essential, and his farm should at some point make Devers more affordable by supplying minimum wage talent…

 

The Raffy offer was before Riley signed his contract, which I’m sure Raffy, and his people were not happy with that contract.

[notin]

I don't think Bogey takes $150M/6... maybe more like $180/7.

 

I have no idea what Devers would take, this winter.

 

 

So… more than Semien? Despite Semien being the better player as measured by fWAR?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They already offered Raffy the $21mill AAV and got rejected. They’re going to have to up it by quite a bit.

 

I am sure abloom got some leeway based on the situation he walked into and whatever his goals are, but at some point, he will need a winner.

 

And keeping Devers (or equivalent) is essential, and his farm should at some point make Devers more affordable by supplying minimum wage talent…

 

Trade Simulator accepted this: Devers and Houck to Miami for starting pitchers Pablo Lopez 26 and Jesus Luzardo 24, centerfielder Jesus Sanchez 24, third baseman Joey Wendle 32, and World Series MVP Jorge Soler 30 (the negative contract that makes it all happen). Which group will help turn around a rebuild faster?

[JDavis76]

So… more than Semien? Despite Semien being the better player as measured by fWAR?

 

inflation, it's up 8.5% year over year!!

[Hugh2]

I think JD gets one, too.

 

If he accepts, it’s a one year deal. If he declines, it’s a draft pick

 

If the Sox are willing to go over the tax next year I think it’s a lock he gets a QO. I think JD is in decline but I also think he’s better than he’s been recently. I think he’ll be fine as a DH for a few more years.

[Hugh2]

I think Bogaerts gets closer to 195/7

[Bellhorn04]

And of course we have this cute little theory floating around that what Devers does will depend on what happens with Bogey, because they're so tight.

 

The cynical among us, of course, will dismiss that with some humorous remark about the money being the decisive factor.

[Old Red]

And of course we have this cute little theory floating around that what Devers does will depend on what happens with Bogey, because they're so tight.

 

The cynical among us, of course, will dismiss that with some humorous remark about the money being the decisive factor.

I don’t know if Bogey’s, and Raffy’s thought process is the same as it was when the season started. It’s been a rough season to say it mildly, and Bloom has pissed people off more than once along the way.

[moonslav59]

So… more than Semien? Despite Semien being the better player as measured by fWAR?

 

Add 8% inflation and, yes.

[moonslav59]

I think Bogaerts gets closer to 195/7

 

If here the only or even the second best SS on the market, maybe.

[JDavis76]

If here the only or even the second best SS on the market, maybe.

 

That's quite the word salad....

[notin]

I don’t know if Bogey’s, and Raffy’s thought process is the same as it was when the season started. It’s been a rough season to say it mildly, and Bloom has pissed people off more than once along the way.

 

They’re agents with very specific foci will handle the negotiations. It will be about money and years and not winning and feelings…

[Old Red]

They’re agents with very specific foci will handle the negotiations. It will be about money and years and not winning and feelings…

 

Yes years, and money will be the big deciders, but don’t discount feelings especially with Bogey.

[Hugh2]

Yes years, and money will be the big deciders, but don’t discount feelings especially with Bogey.

 

I mean.... that should help the Red Sox, right?

[moonslav59]

$1M more and most players will take the higher offer, unless taxes, cost of living and endorsement opportunities tip the balance.

 

Make Bogey a fair market value offer, and move on, if he says no. There are other very good players available. It won't be the end of the world, if we replace him, in kind, or upgrade several positions, instead.

 

To me, Devers is the heart and soul of this team and provides intangibles not captured by stats and data. I've often said, "Devers Forevers," but I realize there are limits to just how high we should go, but I'd make the very best offer we can come up with to keep him. He is not easy to replace "in kind."

[Bellhorn04]

$1M more and most players will take the higher offer, unless taxes, cost of living and endorsement opportunities tip the balance.

 

If it's a big enough contract, $1 million will probably be outweighed by those other considerations.

 

If reports are accurate, Theo closed the deal with Lester by bumping their offer a whopping $20 million higher than the Red Sox best offer.

 

Again if reports are accurate, the Yankees closed the deal with Cole by adding a ninth year at $36 million. Two other teams were willing to go to 8 years at $36 million.

 

Sometimes you really have to beat the crap out of the next best offer to make the player feel truly comfortable they're making the right decision!

[JDavis76]

If it's a big enough contract, $1 million will probably be outweighed by those other considerations.

 

If reports are accurate, Theo closed the deal with Lester by bumping their offer a whopping $20 million higher than the Red Sox best offer.

 

Again if reports are accurate, the Yankees closed the deal with Cole by adding a ninth year at $36 million. Two other teams were willing to go to 8 years at $36 million.

 

Sometimes you really have to beat the crap out of the next best offer to make the player feel truly comfortable they're making the right decision!

 

That's what always gave me a little added respect for Paul O'Neill and Bernie Williams.

 

They both took less to stay with the Yankees.

[Bellhorn04]

That's what always gave me a little added respect for Paul O'Neill and Bernie Williams.

 

They both took less to stay with the Yankees.

 

Some guys do. They're in the minority, but they do exist.

[JDavis76]

Some guys do. They're in the minority, but they do exist.

 

For sure!

[Old Red]

If it's a big enough contract, $1 million will probably be outweighed by those other considerations.

 

If reports are accurate, Theo closed the deal with Lester by bumping their offer a whopping $20 million higher than the Red Sox best offer.

 

Again if reports are accurate, the Yankees closed the deal with Cole by adding a ninth year at $36 million. Two other teams were willing to go to 8 years at $36 million.

 

Sometimes you really have to beat the crap out of the next best offer to make the player feel truly comfortable they're making the right decision!

 

Riley signing the deal he did does not help Raffy, but it only takes one owner to go higher, and longer than the rest, and I think there are a few around. I don’t think JH is one of them.

[Bellhorn04]

Riley signing the deal he did does not help Raffy, but it only takes one owner to go higher, and longer than the rest, and I think there are a few around. I don’t think JH is one of them.

 

Riley was several years away from free agency, but his deal could be used as a sort of baseline for Devers.

 

If JH is willing to pay Devers what he wants, maybe $325 million or whatever, that will make it pretty damn hard to keep Bogey too.

 

If they don't make a very serious effort it's going to yet another PR disaster. I think they've had enough of them lately.

[Old Red]

Riley was several years away from free agency, but his deal could be used as a sort of baseline for Devers.

 

If JH is willing to pay Devers what he wants, maybe $325 million or whatever, that will make it pretty damn hard to keep Bogey too.

 

If they don't make a very serious effort it's going to yet another PR disaster. I think they've had enough of them lately.

Agree. I think Bogey is gone, and Raffy is 50-50. Losing both will be a PR disaster, and then some.